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Brussels Briefing n. 56: Craig Hanson "Sustainability of resources and conflict prevention through the nexus approach"

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The Brussels Development Briefing n. 56 on The Land-Water-Energy nexus and the Sustainability of the Food System organised by CTA, the European Commission/EuropeAid, the ACP Secretariat and Concord was held on 3rd of July 2019, 9h00-13h00 at the ACP Secretariat, Avenue Georges Henri 451, 1200 Brussels, Room C.

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Brussels Briefing n. 56: Craig Hanson "Sustainability of resources and conflict prevention through the nexus approach"

  1. 1. July, 2019 Craig Hanson (Vice President of Food, Forests, Water, & the Ocean at the World Resources Institute) SUSTAINABILITY OF RESOURCES AND CONFLICT PREVENTION THROUGH THE NEXUS APPROACH Photo: Espen Faugstad
  2. 2. wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future WORLD RESOURCES REPORT How can the world feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050 in a way that advances economic development while reducing pressure on the environment (climate, water, ecosystems)?
  3. 3. wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future THE PARTNERS
  4. 4. 1. THE FOOD GAP: 56% MORE FOOD NEEDED BY 2050 wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future
  5. 5. 2. THE LAND GAP: AVOID 593 MILLION HECTARES OF AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future
  6. 6. 3. THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GAP wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future
  7. 7. wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future 3. THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GAP
  8. 8. wri.org/sustfoodfuture | World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future 3. THE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GAP
  9. 9. A MENU OF SOLUTIONS COULD CLOSE ALL 3 GAPS
  10. 10. +56% +68% +28–61% +120 Mha +400 Mha Crop demand Meat/dairy demand Timber products demand Expansion of pastureland Expansion of urban areas +88% Beef/lamb demand +200 Mha Expansion of cropland Sources: Searchinger et al. (2018), Elias and Boucher (2014), Seto et al. (2012), WWF (2012). Projections are “business as usual” and range from 2000-2030 to 2010-2060 image credit: Sam Beebe, Ecotrust +250 Mha? Expansion of timber plantations FOOD-LAND NEXUS: INCREASING COMPETITION FOR LAND
  11. 11. 70% 30% Water Withdrawals Agriculture Other FOOD-WATER NEXUS Much of the world’s cropland is water stressed All 28% of cropland in highly water stressed areas Irrigated 56% of irrigated land in highly water stressed areas
  12. 12. Source: WRI analysis based on UNEP (2012), FAO (2012e), EIA (2012), IEA (2012), and Houghton (2008) with adjustments. Note: Figures may not equal 100% due to rounding. * LULUCF = Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry. ** Includes emissions from on-farm energy consumption as well as from manufacturing of farm tractors, irrigation pumps, other machinery, and key inputs such as fertilizer. It excludes emissions from the transport of food. *** Excludes emissions from agricultural energy sources described above. FOOD-ENERGY NEXUS
  13. 13. LAND-ENERGY NEXUS
  14. 14. 6.0 3.3 6.8 14.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 14 TWh of electricity is enough to power Sri Lanka for an entire year Sources: WRI Analysis; CEA 2016; Platts 2016; CIA 2014 WATER-ENERGY NEXUS Example: More than 30 TWh of electricity generation ($2.8 billion in revenue) was lost in India due to power plant shutdowns caused by water shortages (2013-2016)
  15. 15. Source: The Global Risks 2015 Report. World Economic Forum. 2015. Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2018.
  16. 16. Hold for video
  17. 17. Hold for video PREDICTING CONFLICT?
  18. 18. A MENU OF SOLUTIONS COULD CLOSE ALL 3 GAPS
  19. 19. July, 2019 Craig Hanson (Vice President of Food, Forests, Water, & the Ocean at the World Resources Institute) SUSTAINABILITY OF RESOURCES AND CONFLICT PREVENTION THROUGH THE NEXUS APPROACH Photo: Espen Faugstad
  20. 20. APPENDIX
  21. 21. Source: World Energy Outlook 2018 More than 90% of today’s global power generation depends on water All hydro power plants depend on water for generating electricity 2017 nited States pean Union developing economies India China d economies Japan 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2017 Coal Gas Nuclear Oil Wind Hydro Other Solar PV Electricity generation Most coal, gas, oil, and nuclear plants depend on water for cooling Some other types of thermal plants, like concentrated solar and biomass, also depend on water for cooling Global electricity generation share by fuel
  22. 22. Types of water-related shutdowns United States France India Balkans Romania Kenya Brazil Thermal plants No cooling water available due to water shortages No discharge allowed due to high temperatures Hydro plants Low water levels in reservoirs Note: the table is not all inclusive, but includes examples in countries that are representative in terms of development status and geography in the recent years. Power plants around the globe are experiencing disruptions caused by water constraints
  23. 23. AQUEDUCT FOOD LANDING PAGE: GLOBAL CROP LAYER
  24. 24. AREA WHERE RAINFED MILLET IS GROWN IN EAST AFRICA
  25. 25. DROUGHT RISK WHERE RAINFED MILLET IS GROWN IN EAST AFRICA
  26. 26. DROUGHT RISK WHERE RAINFED MILLET IS GROWN IN EAST AFRICA AND % OF POPULATION AT RISK OF HUNGER

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