Christian Palliere

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Christian Palliere

  1. 1. The Outlook for EU Agriculture Challenges, constraints and opportunities to productivity The cereals sector COPA COGECA - 29 June 2011
  2. 2. Content <ul><li>The challenges ahead, reminder </li></ul><ul><li>Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Productivity improvement – from where? </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizations: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Recommendations towards higher productivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Measurable productivity criteria </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The opportunity of the CAP post-2013 </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizers Europe forecast 2011-2021 </li></ul>The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  3. 3. Content <ul><li>The challenges ahead, reminder </li></ul><ul><li>Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Productivity improvement – from where? </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizations: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Recommendations towards higher productivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Measurable productivity criteria </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The opportunity of the CAP post-2013 </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizers Europe forecast 2011-2021 </li></ul>The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  4. 4. The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity More people – Less arable land We must produce more food per hectar World population (in Bn) Arable area (in ha per person) 2030 1998
  5. 5. The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity Agricultural areas in EU 15
  6. 6. The global economic growth is expected (GDP) to be 3,3 % p.a. towards 2019 Canada China EU India Japan Latin Mexico Middle South USA Amerika East Corea The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  7. 7. The challenges ahead <ul><li>World population growth </li></ul><ul><li>>> +50% in 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>GDP </li></ul><ul><li>>> income growth leads to diet change (emerging countries) </li></ul><ul><li>To ensure food security inside EU, and contributing outside </li></ul><ul><li>To cope with increased demand for non food crops </li></ul><ul><li>>> by 2030, world need for cereals will rise by 50% (FAO) </li></ul>The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  8. 8. Content <ul><li>The challenges ahead, reminder </li></ul><ul><li>Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Productivity improvement – from where? </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizations: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Recommendations towards higher productivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Measurable productivity criteria </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The opportunity of the CAP post-2013 </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizers Europe forecast 2011-2021 </li></ul>The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  9. 9. Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity <ul><li>Resource availability </li></ul><ul><li>Arable land, water availability </li></ul><ul><li>Agronomic constraints </li></ul><ul><li>Rotational requirements </li></ul><ul><li>Soil structure </li></ul><ul><li>Balanced nutrition </li></ul><ul><li>Economic constraints </li></ul><ul><li>High and unpredictable energy prices </li></ul><ul><li>High price volatility of agricultural commodities </li></ul>The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity <ul><li>Natural and environmental constraints </li></ul><ul><li>Extreme weather events (droughts, floods) </li></ul><ul><li>Climate change and its impacts on cereal yields </li></ul><ul><li>Ensuring minimum impact on environment </li></ul><ul><li>Organizational constraints </li></ul><ul><li>Dissemination of good practice onto farms </li></ul><ul><li>Policy uncertainties </li></ul><ul><li>CAP post 2013 </li></ul><ul><li>Biofuels production in EU </li></ul><ul><li>Market instriment to address price volatility </li></ul><ul><li>GMO development in EU </li></ul>
  10. 10. Increased market volatility in Europe Source: Weekly price development milling wheat, Matif The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  11. 11. The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity Comparisons of phosphate inputs and offtakes for UK wheat, not accounting for any manure inputs
  12. 12. Financial crisis Lower productivity Imbalanced Nutrition (P,K) The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity Impact of the economic situation on productivity
  13. 13. Content <ul><li>The challenges ahead, reminder </li></ul><ul><li>Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Productivity improvement – from where? </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizations: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Recommendations towards higher productivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Measurable productivity criteria </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The opportunity of the CAP post-2013 </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizers Europe forecast 2011-2021 </li></ul>The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  14. 14. Source: University of Copenhagen Increase in productivity - from where? The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  15. 15. Content <ul><li>The challenges ahead, reminder </li></ul><ul><li>Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Productivity improvement – from where? </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizations: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Recommendations towards higher productivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Measurable productivity criteria </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The opportunity of the CAP post-2013 </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizers Europe forecast 2011-2021 </li></ul>The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  16. 16. Recommendations: Good Fertilizer Practice towards a more productive agriculture <ul><li>Improve extension of scientific and practical knowledge onto farm – best practice and balanced fertilization </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Improving and monitoring Nitrogen Use Efficiency </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Use of precision farming techniques ( right rate at right time ) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Using the appropriate nitrogen form, nitrate vs urea ( right product ) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Better control of nutrient availability: </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Urease inhibitors </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Nitrification inhibitors </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Localization and/or incorporation ( right place ) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Improved understanding and use of recycled products on farm and better use efficiency of their nutrients </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Coordinated use of all nutrient sources </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Integrated approach of environmental protection </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Vertical: Life Cycle approach </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Horizontal: Interactions between environmental compartments </li></ul></ul></ul>The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  17. 17. Precision farming tools towards Good Agricultural Practice Software and crop monitoring tools help to calculate the right nutrient rate and apply it at the right time => these tools helped to improve Nutrient Use Efficiency The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  18. 18. The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity Applying Sustainable Farming principles
  19. 19. Productivity criteria / indicator should be measurable : Nitrogen Use Efficiency as an indicator <ul><li>Nitrogen Use Efficiency (NUE) the ratio between the amount of N removed from the field with the harvest and the N applied </li></ul><ul><li>>> NUE is proposed by an UN ECE Task Force as a « legal instrument » to monitor the implementation of the revised Gothenburg protocol. </li></ul><ul><li>>> NUE is proposed by a group of scientists as a sustainability indicator for the evaluation of the sustainability of first generation biofuels </li></ul>The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  20. 20. The N itrogen Use Efficiency in Europe Source: own calculation based on FAO and Fertilizers Europe data N use efficiency (NUE in %) = (N removal/N application) x 100 The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  21. 21. Content <ul><li>The challenges ahead, reminder </li></ul><ul><li>Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Productivity improvement – from where? </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizations: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Recommendations towards higher productivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Measurable productivity criteria </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The opportunity of the CAP post-2013 </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizers Europe forecast 2011-2021 </li></ul>The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  22. 22. CAP post 2013: A policy opportunity <ul><li>Supporting agricultural productivity </li></ul><ul><li>To boost competitiveness of EU agriculture </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>ensuring farmers’ income while limiting market support </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>To contribute towards food security - a central issue for EU agriculture </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Both for EU self reliance and contribution to global food supply </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>To help EU agriculture (and forestry) to respond to the new demand for renewable resources </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Bioenergy, biomass </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Improving environmental protection while increasing productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Improving environmental protection is essential for EU agriculture </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>‘’ Sustainable productive farming systems ’’ (such as IFM) can reconcile productivity and respect for the environment. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Mitigation of environmental impacts </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing productivity in existing cropland and avoiding the need to crop more land will benefit biodiversity and save GHG emissions </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  23. 23. Content <ul><li>The challenges ahead, reminder </li></ul><ul><li>Constraints and uncertainties toward increased productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Productivity improvement – from where? </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizations: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Recommendations towards higher productivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Measurable productivity criteria </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The opportunity of the CAP post-2013 </li></ul><ul><li>Fertilizers Europe forecast 2011-2021 </li></ul>The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  24. 24. Fertilizers Europe forecast consumption 2011/2021 (reference 2007) - 13 .6% - 11.3 % >> slow return to 2005/2007 level - 0 .9% The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity
  25. 25. The Outlook for EU Agriculture - COPA COGECA – 29 June 2011 Cereal sector - Constraints and opportunities to productivity without fertilizer with fertilizer Thank you for your attention! [email_address] any question?

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