Photovoltaic market and industry trends 2019

Trends in PV Applications 2019
Gaëtan Masson, IEA PVPS Task 1 Operating Agent, Becquerel Institute
Leonardo Energy Webinar – 4th December 2019
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PVPS
2
What is IEA PVPS?
• The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS) is one of
the Technology Collaboration Programmes established within the
International Energy Agency
• Established in 1993
• 32 members - 27 countries, European Commission, 4 associations
• “To enhance the international collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic solar
energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems”
• Active in market and industry research, sustainability, reliability, grid integration, BIPV, solar
resource, VIPV and off-grid applications.
• Task 1 is the task devoted to market, policies and industry analysis and the think tank of IEA-
PVPS.

PVPS
3
Total installed capacity rising above 512 GW

PVPS
4
A stable PV market in 2018 and growing in 2019 ?

PVPS
5
Countries and regions shaping the PV global market
• The decline of the chinese PV
market in 2018 led to market
stabilization but the rest of the
market grew significantly.
• 2019 will look similar with growth
outside of China compensating
the decline in China.
• 2020 and beyond should see the
market growing again rapidly,
driven by utility-scale PV
applications mostly.

PVPS
6
Still 10-15 countries making the global PV market
• Having one of two key markets has been
the features of the global PV market for 12
years at least.
• The difference between China first and
India/USA 2nd and 3rd is a ¼ ratio.
• Outside of China, the market is better
balanced with India, USA, Europe, Japan
well balanced.
• One can see this differently: the market is
all these regions is still way to low
compared to its potential.
• New growth regions: Middle-East, Sout-
East Asia, North Africa, Latin America and
Europe.

PVPS
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Top 10 entry level is increasing slowly

PVPS
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From Europe to Asia
• Europe fueled PV development in Spain, Germany,
Italy and other markets followed (BE, CZ, BG,
GR…)
• Then Asia took the lead with China, Japan,
Thailand and now Australia, Korea, Vietnam and
more.
• The American markets are following the Asian
trend with some delay but remain small compared
to the Asian one.
• The Middle-East and Africa start to appear

PVPS
9
Decentralized PV is stable in a stable market

PVPS
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But this is a regional feature

PVPS
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PV market drivers: still the FiT but for how long?
• Drivers = the main incentive or policy driving the PV market, but not the only one.
• FiT is still massive used while tenders are gaining ground
• What can be the impact for the manufacturers of large market shares with tenders?

PVPS
12
Most competitive tenders
Not realistic !

PVPS
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Normalized tenders value

PVPS
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Business Value of the PV market and Industry

PVPS
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PV penetration in the electricty demand

PVPS
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PV in the electricty mix

PVPS
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CO2 avoided emission; 600 Mtons of CO2eq

iea-pvs.org
Thank you for your attention
Gaëtan Masson, Task 1
g.masson@iea-pvs.org

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Izumi Kaizuka,
Deputy OA, IEA PVPS Task 1/Director, RTS Corporation, Japan
PV Industry Trends
from IEA PVPS Trends Report
2nd December 2019

Contents
• About RTS Corporation
• Industry trends from Trends Report
– Upstream sector
– Down stream sector and new application
• Challenges for TW era
2

Japan World
R & D
Deployment
Business models
Silicon feedstock
for solar cell
PV system
PV projects
Comprehensive Consulting company on Photovoltaics (PV)
RTS Corporation – founded in 1983, 36 year experience
Business: Helping establish PV business strategy, “Go to Japanese market ”
Clients: Government agencies, utilities, manufacturers (entire value chain of PV) project developers,
financial institutes, industry associations, etc.
in JP, US, DE, IT, FR, AT, NR, CHE, AUS, CHN, IND, KOR, Taiwan, Thailand, Norway, etc.
Go to Japanese Market
Consulting for PV projects
3

How we conduct analysis
• Information in the National Survey
Reports from each member country
• RTS’s primary survey for non-member/
member countries
• Available information and figures from
– Industry associations
– Pres releases, etc.
4

Growth of annual PV market CN declines,
compensated b
global growth.

Installation, PV module production & capacity
Unit (MW)
• Effective capacity: less than reported figure
• Gap is widening due to Chinese 5.31 policy in 2018
6

Production share by country
Including poly for semiconductors
7

Chinese market & industry evolution
Source: IEA PVPS, CPIA, RTS Corporation
8

sc-Si share increased
9

Top 5 cell/ wafer manufactures
Ran
k
Solar cell production
(GW)
PV module production
(GW)
PV module shipment
(GW)
1 Hanwha Q CELLS 7,4 JinkoSolar 8,6 JinkoSolar 11,4
2 JA Solar 7,0 JA Solar 8,5 JA Solar 8,5
3 Tongwei Solar 6,5 Canadian Solar 8,0 Trina Solar 7,5
4 JinkoSolar 5,8 Hanwha Q CELLS 7,7 Canadian Solar 6,8
5 Canadian Solar 5,7
LONGi Green
Energy Technology
7,5
LONGi Green
Energy Technology
6,6
Note: Production volumes are manufacturers’ own production, whereas shipment volumes
include commissioned production and OEM procurement.
Source RTS Corporation (with some estimates)
10

2019 Trends in the upstream sector
• Production capacity increase
• Higher efficiency & output
 Combination of several technologies
 Full shift from conventional to PERC cells
 Increase of commercial production of HJT
 sc-Si increases the share
 Bifacial PV module shipment increase
• Further cost reduction
• Polysilicon and wafer price reduction
• Increase of wafer supply
• CdTe PV module shipment increases with First Solar S6
• Consolidation continues
11

PV module production capacity by major companies
Source: RTS Corporation
12

Production capacity of major players as of Sept 2019
13

2019 1H Shipment
14
Ran
k
2019 1H Shipment （GW） 2018 Shipment （GW） 2017 Shipment（GW）
1 JinkoSolar（China/Malaysia） 6.4 JinkoSolar（China/Malaysia） 11.17 JinkoSolar（China/Malaysia） 9.8
2 JA Solar（China/Malaysia） 5 JA Solar（China/Malaysia） 8.5
Trina Solar
（China/Thailand/Vietnam）
9.0
3
Trina Solar
（China/Thailand/Vietnam） 4.5
Trina Solar
（China/Thailand/Vietnam）
7.54 JA Solar（China） 7.2
4
Canadian Solar
（Canada/China/Brazil/Vietnam
）
3.7
Canadian Solar
（Canada/China/Brazil/Vietnam ）
6.82
Canadian Solar
（Canada/China/Brazil/Vietnam
）
6.8
5
Hanwha Q CELLS
（Korea/China/Malaysia）
3.5
LONGi Green Energy Technology
（China/Malaysia）
6.58
Hanwha Q CELLS
5.4
6
LONGi Green Energy
Technology（China/Malaysia）
3.19
Hanwha Q CELLS
5.60
GCL System Integration
Technology（GCLSI）
（China）
4.8
6 Risen Energy（China） 2.78
（China）
4.57
LONGi Green Energy
Technology（China）
4.7
8 First Solar 2.2 Risen Energy（China） 3.35 Yingli Green Energy（China） 3.0
８
（China）
2.2
Shunfeng International Clean
Energy/Suntech Power（China）
3.30 Risen Energy（China） 2.8
10 Zhejiang Chint Electrics(China) 2 Chint Electrics（China） 3.15 First Solar（USA/Malaysia） 2.7
Source：RTS Corporation Including estimates

Module
Trends along the value chain : upstream
- Debottlenecking
- FBR
- Metallurgical
process
- G7  G8
- HP mc-Si
- Continuous
pulling sc-Si
- Cast mono
- Larger wafer
- DW for sc-Si
&mc-Si
- Texture
- Thinner sc-Si
- Using IoT for
optimizing cell
process
- PERC, PERT,
SHJ, IBC
- Bifacial
- Multi-busbars
- Half-cut
- Shingles
- Lower Ag
consumption
- Glass-Glass
- Non-EVA
encupsulants
- 1,500V
- Bifacial
- AR coating
- Anti-Soiling
- Reliability
• Higher efficiency
• Larger size
• Material/ electrodes
• Process
• Flexible substrates
Lower cost equipment/ process / higher throughput/ location
15

Is bigger is better for monocrystalline Si?
16
 Larger wafers has been adopted since 2018
 Output increases while weight increase and mechanical stress of PV module (Failures in
installation and transportation, impacts on materials are concerned）
 Standard of wafers needs agreement of PV manufactures
Larger wafer can reduce BOS
cost of PV systems and LCOE
166mm x 166 mm is upper limit of the
wafer size for standard process lines.
Needs mutual recognition among
manufacturers
VS
Image: Zhonghuan Semiconductor
“Kwafoo”
Conventional Average size of
larger mono in
China
Global average
Half Cut cell, HC120pieces
PERC PV module 610W
Next generation of
LONGi’s wafers
for 2020 and later
Bifacial PV module
HC120 355~365W
HC144、430～435W

CPVIA outlook of PV module cost
17
sc-Si PERC PV Module
22 US cent/W
Poly cost
Umit: RMB/W
Non-poly wafer
Non-poly cell
Non-poly module
15 US cent/W
Source CPVIA roadmap 2018 (Feb. 2019)

Downstream trends
Technology
• BOS Cost reduction with
higher efficiency PV modules and bifacial PV modules
• Inverter : String vs Centralized, 1500V or more???
• Tracker: Centralized or distributed control?
• Repowering
– Replacing PV modules/ inverters
– Retrofitting AR coatings
• Recycling
• More cost efficient O&M
– AI analysis for failure detection and prescheduled
maintenance, etc.
New Application
Floating PV, AgroPV, BIPV, PV + Storage , PV + EV (VIPV)
18

Segmentation of grid connected solar PV installations
Market segmentation has been dominated by utility-scale PV plants in the last 6 years,
with a change coming from China in 2017. Utility scale segment is growing in emerging
countries
Innovative applications still marginal:
Floating <１GW, potential to be 3rd category following ground mounted and rooftop
AgriPV is new and growing slow,
BIPV < 1 GW
VIPV is still in its infancy
Market segment and new application
Source: IEA PVPS
19

Floatvoltaics, Floating PV
• Market size in 2018: ~ 786MW
• FPV is installed/planned in many
countries for efficient use of water
surface
• FPV is common in land limited
countries such as Japan, South
Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, etc.
• Incentives for FPV: S. Korea,
Taiwan, Vietnam, etc.
• FPV as DG/ self consumption use is
emerging
– Off-grid solution (Offshore)
– Aquaculture
• FPV & Hydro for grid stabilization
Source: World Bank, Where Sun Meets Water:
Floating Solar Market Report
Source: RTS Corporation, AECEA
20

AgroPV application
• Electrification of rural area, sustainable agriculture
• Efficient use of farmland
– Power sales or land lease fee as additional income source of
farmers  food-self sufficiency, poverty eradication
• Specific structures for sharing solar energy with
agricultural products
Greenhouse with PV, Japan
Agro PV in China
21

BIPV: expected to take-off
• Drivers :
– Compliance for building efficiency codes, less CO2
– Obligation to install PV ( Newly build houses in California from 2020, Public
buildings in South Korea)
– Price reduction of wafer-based Si technology contribute price reduction
Source IEA PVPS Task15, “Coloured BIPV : Market, Research and Development”
22

EVs and VIPVs
https://www.nedo.go.jp/content/100885778.pdfSource: IEA PVPS Snapshot Report
• The accelerated development of the EV market could be compared to the
development of the PV market, with similar penetrations.
• With more than 2 million electric vehicles sold in 2018 (or 2,2% of the global
car market)
• To charge electric vehicles during work hours, the need for additional energy
sources will become a key, while concepts such as virtual self-consumption
will rapidly gain attention. VIPV could be a solution as well
• IEA PVPS New Task, Task 17 is working on PV and Transport
23

Contents
• Industry trends from Trends
• What happen in 2019 and later
• Challenges of PV manufacturing for TW era
24

25
Sources: PV Market Alliance
Forecasts of PV capacity installed annually in the world
Outlook for PV market by PVMA
0
50
100
150
200
250
Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
GW
Europe Middle East & Northern Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
Risk of global market decline
exists in 2019 if Chinese market
decreases (only 5.2 GW installed
in Q1).
Market above 110 GW is a
credible forecast, with potential
until 120 GW (high probability),
or more (lower probability).
EU, India, Middle-East, and more
will be source of growth.
Market diversification with
innovative applications and…
new business models
200 GW
yearly
market?
Solar PV at
25

Outcome of 2nd TW Workshop （NREL・AIST・FhG-ISE）
• 10 TW by 2030 and 70TW by 2050
• PV LCOE dropped to 2.5 US cent/kWh by 2018
and PV has competitiveness in various regions
• 5 Key topics were identified for TW era
– Grid and power electronics: technologies to match generation and consumption in wider area
– Storage：Cost reduction and dissemination of Li ion batteries and pumped hydro have potential
– Sector coupling：Renewable energy for transportation and heating and cooling of the building
– Pt-o-X and P-to-G：Technologies to produce, store and use of Hydrogen, CH4 and other hydrocarbons
– R&D and Manufacturing: Continue efforts to increase PV efficiency by R&D
Source：Nancy Hagel, et. al, “Terawatt-Scale Photovoltaics: Transform global energy”, Science 31 May 2019, Vol. 364, Issue 6443, pp.
26

Challenges for TW era
• PV can contribute energy transition
• TW era is coming but are we ready ??
– Investment in PV manufacturing
– Reliability to ensure PV performance
– Harmonization with other renewable or grid
integration technologies
27

Acknowledgement for the support of PVPS activities
Contact : Izumi KAIZUKA, RTS Corporation, kaizuka@rts-pv.com
Thank you for your kind
attention !
感谢您的关注
끝 까지 경청해 주셔서 감사합니다
ご清聴ありがとうございました

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