The document discusses how decreasing carbon emissions to 2050 could double electricity demand in the UK. It analyzes how current energy policy focused on gas, nuclear and renewables may not be enough to meet the projected demand of 720TWh/yr by 2050 as electricity replaces transport and heating. All forms of renewables, including tidal range, tidal stream, wave and offshore wind projects in the Severn Estuary could provide up to 20GW of power but projects face challenges of governance, planning, timeframes and market appetite. The conclusion calls for a proactive, diverse development plan covering multiple technologies in the Severn to balance energy production with environmental and societal impacts.

1. Peter Kydd, Chair
South West Marine Energy Park
Consultant
WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff
Energy –
Sustainable
Severn
December 2015

2. DECREASING CARBON EMISSIONS TO 2050 COULD
DOUBLE ELECTRICITY DEMAND
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Typical Energy Scenario to achieve 80% reduction in carbon emissions
by 2050s

3. CURRENT ENERGY POLICY FOCUSED ON A MIX OF
GAS, NUCLEAR AND RENEWABLES
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Can the current policy deliver for 2050?
80GW capacity today and reducing – 360TWH/yr
720TWh/yr needed for 2050 (electricity is most likely
option for transport and heat)
>200GW capacity by 2050, more if renewables play a
bigger role
Replacement of existing plant and more than doubling
capacity means all viable technologies required

4. ALL FORMS OF RENEWABLES LIKELY TO BE
REQUIRED BY 2050 – AT ACCEPTABLE COST
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Marine Energy – Not if but when?
 Tidal Range – tidal barrages and lagoons
 Tidal Stream – tidal fences and arrays
 Wave – offshore arrays
 Offshore Wind - floating
Severn Estuary – Barrages, Lagoons And Tidal Stream

5. BRISTOL CHANNEL OVERVIEW
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 Lagoon potential
 Up to10GW but subject to review
of cumulative impacts and
interdependencies
 Tidal Barrages
 6 to 8GW between Cardiff and
Weston
 Tidal Stream
 Tidal Fences Up to 1GW between
Minehead and Aberthaw
 Tidal Arrays – Lynmouth
 Pemrokeshire
Swansea Bay
320 MW
Cardiff
2.8 GW
Newport
1.8GW
Bridgwater Bay
3.6GW or moreMinehead
Up to 2GW

6. HOW TO FACILITATE DELIVERY OF THE SEVERN
RESOURCE?
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Good Governance, Planning and Appetite
Governance – Appropriate locations for each technology
Governance – Appropriate balance between energy and
environment
Governance – Best use of estuary resources
Timeframes Uncertainties Market Appetite

7. INVESTMENT IS TENUOUS
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Project Development is not easy….
Numerous Tidal Power Studies from the 1970’s to the
present day
Atlantic Array
Navitus Bay

8. IN CONCLUSION
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Proactively support a diverse development plan for the
Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel covering tidal range, tidal
stream, wind, floating wind and wave energy resources to
help developers, investors and Severn stakeholders.
Consider technologies in combination – diverse but optimal
development to balance energy output with the regional
environment and economy and society.

9. Bristol
European Green Capital 2015
Sustainable
Severn