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Urbanism in the age of climate change
The document compares transportation modes and development challenges between the United States, France, Sweden, and China. It also provides summaries of development plans and scenarios for various regions and cities. Key points include: 1) Auto use is higher in the US (86%) compared to other countries like France (48%) and Sweden (37%). China's auto use is currently lower at 11% but growing rapidly. 2) Plans for regions like Portland, Metro aim to reduce vehicle miles traveled through compact and mixed-use development near transit. 3) Scenarios for California's future examine impacts of different growth patterns like infill versus suburban sprawl, finding compact development saves infrastructure costs and land. 4)
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Urbanism in the age of climate change
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- 8. Transportation Mode ByCountry Auto Walk/Bike Transit 100% 90% 86% 80% 70% 60% 65% 50% 52% 48% 40% 42% 37% 30% 20% 22% 10% 12% 11% 10% 11% 03% 00% United States France Sweden China 美国 法国 瑞典 中国
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- 10. Portland Metro RegionVMT Daily VMT in National Average the Portland region declined 11% from 1996 to 2002, compared to a 6% increase nationally Portland Region Source: State Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS); Federal Highway Administration, USDOT
- 11. Vision California 29% - 53% 29% - - % Population change, 2006-2035 65% % Jobs change, 2006-2035 - 60% 71% 49% 61% 26% 60% 24% 86% 40% 102% 28% 47% 16% 31% 27% 41% 30% 40%
- 12. Scenarios and Metrics Trend Blueprints
- 13. California Housing Demand2035 New Units Needed by 2035 Four Largest MPOs Only – SCAG, SANDAG, MTC, SACOG 2,500 Thousands 2,000 2,076 1,500 Preliminary 1,629 Do Not 1,000 1,325 Duplicate 500 00 -500 -1,650 -1,000 Multifamily Townhouse Small Lot Large Lot Source: AC Nelson. The Shape of Metropolitan California in the 21st Century: Outlook to 2020 and 2035
- 14. Two California Futures Urban Compact Standard 5% 10% 25% 35% 70% 55% Business As Usual Growing Smart
- 15. Urban Infill -Oakland Uptown
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- 17. Compact Development -Stapleton
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- 22. Housing Product Mix 2050 Total 25% Multifamily 33% 10% Attached 14% 20% 65% Small Lot 23% 53% 45% Large Lot 30% Business As Usual Growing Smart
- 23. A1 v C1/C2 Land Consumed For New Growth to 2050 (mi2) More land than Delaware and Rhode Island combined 5,600 3,750 square miles saved 1,850 Business As Usual Growing Smart
- 24. A1 v C1/C2 Infrastructure Cost for New Growth Capital Costs for New Growth to 2050 $4,000 Saved per New Housing Unit : $710 Million/Year Dollars Billions $165.4 $32 Billion Saved* $133.4 Flickr: sl-engineer *Includes local roads, waste water and sanitary sewer, water supply, and parks & recreation Business As Usual Growing Smart
- 25. A1 v C1/C2 O&M Costs for New Growth Engineering & Public Works Costs for New Growth to 2050 $15 Billion Saved : $334 Million Per Year Dollars Billions $84.9 $15 Billion Saved $69.9 Flickr: watchlooksee *Includes City General Fund engineering and public works functions Business As Usual Growing Smart
- 26. A1 v C1/C2 Revenues from New Growth City Tax and Fee Revenue from New Growth to 2050 $2.7 Billion/Year in Additional Revenue to Cities Dollars Billions $120 Billion $864.5 More * $744.2 www.livinginplainfield.com *Includes City revenues from Vehicle License Fees, Property Tax, and Sales Tax Business As Usual Growing Smart
- 27. A1 v C2 Building Energy Cumulative to 2050 Would Power ALL Homes in California for 20 Years BTU Quadrillion 74 Quad Btu 15 Quadrillion BTUs Saved 58 Quad Btu Flickr: arbyreed Business As Usual Growing Smart
- 28. A1 v C2 Residential Water Use Cumulative to 2050 Water Savings Could Fill the San Francisco Bay 15 Times Acre Feet Millions 328 78 Million Acre Feet Saved 250 Business As Usual Growing Smart
- 29. A1 v C1/C2 Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Miles Per Household in 2050 10,500 Fewer Miles Per Household 27,557 17,041 Flickr: trash-photography Business As Usual Growing Smart
- 30. A1 v C2 Auto Fuel Consumed Cumulative to 2050 Equivalent to more than 3 years of oil imports to the US Gallons Billions 750 277 Billion Gallons Saved 473 Business As Usual Growing Smart
- 31. A1 v C2 Annual Household Costs Per Household Annual in 2050 $10,500 Savings Per Household in 2050 Home Energy & $ 21,000 Water Auto Fuel + Ownership $ 10,500 Flickr: Diablo_Solar Business As Usual Growing Smart
- 32. A1 v C1/C2 Respiratory Health Costs Total Annual in 2035 Saves $1.66 billion annually by 2035 Business As Usual Growing Smart $1.66 bil less than BAU Flickr: Lance Page Based on Analysis of Vision CA Results by TIAX, LLC
- 33. A1 v C2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Annual in 2050 Emissions offset by 90,000 square miles of trees in a year. A forest covering more than1/2 of California. Passenger Vehicles Buildings www.exuberance.com 117 191 MMT Reduced/Year 156 55 New York Times 28 Business As Growing Smart Usual
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- 38. Mode Split byNeighborhood Type
- 40. 建设步行优先的邻里社区 1 Develop neighborhoods that promote walking Chongqing, China
- 41. 优先发展自行车网络 2 Prioritize bicycle networks Bike-prioritized Intersection
- 42. 创建密集的街道网络 3 Create dense networks of streets and paths Recommended: Dense networks of streets and paths Discouraged: Arterial-dominant street network 建议：创建密集的街道网络 不提倡：宽马路为主的干道网络
- 43. 支持高质量的 4 公共交通服务 Support high-quality transit Guangzhou
- 44. 建设多功能混合的 邻里社区 5 Zone for mixed-use neighborhoods
- 45. 将土地开发强度和 6 公共交通承载力相匹配 Match density to transit capacity In Curitiba, Brazil, high-rise development is focused In Guangzhou, density is focused around the BRT within 200 meters of mass transit lines. 在巴西的库 corridor. The system’s capacity matches commute- 里提巴, 高层建筑距离大众公交线路不会超过200米。 hour transit demand. 在广州, 捷运走廊附近的密度较集中。系统能力和通勤时 间的运输需求相匹配。
- 46. 确保紧凑型发 7 展， 提倡短程通勤 Create compact regions with short commutes Kunming Regional Growth 昆明区域发展
- 47. 8 规范停车和道路使用， 增加出行便利性 Increase mobility by regulating parking and road use Cities may choose to charge tolls for use of Singapore’s Electronic Road Pricing system has cut overloaded roads. congestion and raised money for public transit and 城市可对拥堵路段征收过路费。 other uses. 新加坡的电子道路收费系统可减轻拥堵情况
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- 59. Circulation and Streets DesignChallenge 设计挑战 Add Local Streets 添加辅路 Add Car-Free Streets 添加非机动车线路 Disperse Traffic on One-Way Couplets 通过单向二分路分散交通流 Superblocks 超大街区
- 61. YUELAI ECOLOGICAL CITY 悦来生态城
- 62. Current and ProposedPlan Comparison 现有规划与新版规划对比 Yuelai : Superblock Yuelai : Urban Network 悦来生态城：超大街区 悦来生态城：城市格网
- 63. Work with theSite’s Natural Features 结合场地自然特色
- 64. 意大利 圣吉米纳诺 San Gimignano, Italy
- 67. Open Space 开放空间 Yuelai Eco-CityPhase 1 悦来生态城市
- 69. Create a Walkableand Bikeable Community 营造适宜步行与自行车的社区
- 70. Create Walkable 营造适宜步行的 StreetNetworks 街道网络 Auto‐free Street 步行街/慢行道
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- 72. Ellipse Gateway 椭圆门户广场 Yuelai Eco-CityPhase 1 悦来生态城市
- 77. Yuelai Urban NetworkComparison Yuelai : Superblock Yuelai : Urban Network 悦来生态城：超大街区 悦来生态城：城市格网