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China’s Development Challenge
USA Development Challenge
Transportation Mode By Country

                         Auto          Walk/Bike          Transit
100%

90%
       86%
80%

70%

60%                                                                           65%


50%                                                       52%
                         48%
40%                              42%
                                                   37%
30%

20%                                                                                   22%

10%                                                                     12%
             11%                         10%                      11%
                   03%
00%
        United	States           France                   Sweden               China
        美国                      法国                       瑞典                   中国
Portland
Metro 2040
Portland Metro Region VMT

                                                                                                                       Daily VMT in
                                                                                                    National Average   the Portland
                                                                                                                       region declined
                                                                                                                       11% from
                                                                                                                       1996 to 2002,
                                                                                                                       compared to a
                                                                                                                       6% increase
                                                                                                                       nationally

                                                                                                     Portland Region




Source: State Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS); Federal Highway Administration, USDOT
Vision California
                29%
                 -
        53%
29%      -
 -                       % Population change, 2006-2035
      65%                % Jobs change, 2006-2035
       - 60%
          71%
                49%
                61%
      26%
      60%




              24%            86%
              40%            102%

                    28%
                    47%
                       16%                31%
                       27%                41%



                                          30%
                                          40%
Scenarios and Metrics




Trend             Blueprints
California Housing Demand 2035
                                                          New Units Needed by 2035
                                      Four Largest MPOs Only – SCAG, SANDAG, MTC, SACOG
               2,500
   Thousands




               2,000
                                                                                                2,076
               1,500                                                                                       Preliminary
                                1,629
                                                                                                             Do Not
               1,000                                            1,325                                       Duplicate

                 500

                  00

                -500                                                                                        -1,650
               -1,000
                             Multifamily                     Townhouse                         Small Lot    Large Lot

Source: AC Nelson. The Shape of Metropolitan California in the 21st Century: Outlook to 2020 and 2035
Two California Futures
              Urban   Compact   Standard

         5%                         10%
               25%                         35%

   70%                            55%




Business As Usual               Growing Smart
Urban Infill - Oakland Uptown
Same
Compact Development - Stapleton
same
Standard Suburban
Housing Product Mix
                          2050 Total

            25%             Multifamily
                                              33%
            10%             Attached
                                              14%
            20%
65%                         Small Lot         23%
                                                          53%
            45%
                            Large Lot         30%

      Business As Usual                   Growing Smart
A1 v C1/C2

                          Land Consumed
                        For New Growth to 2050 (mi2)

             More land than Delaware and Rhode Island combined


                                                  5,600




                                                             3,750 square
                                                              miles saved

                                                                  1,850



                                             Business As Usual Growing Smart
A1 v C1/C2

                         Infrastructure Cost for New Growth
                                     Capital Costs for New Growth to 2050

              $4,000 Saved per New Housing Unit : $710 Million/Year




                                                                                                                          Dollars Billions
                                                                                                                                                 $165.4



                                                                                                                                                                 $32 Billion
                                                                                                                                                                  Saved*
                                                                                                                                                                    $133.4




   Flickr: sl-engineer      *Includes local roads, waste water and sanitary sewer, water supply, and parks & recreation

                                                                                                                                             Business As Usual   Growing Smart
A1 v C1/C2

                          O&M Costs for New Growth
             Engineering & Public Works Costs for New Growth to 2050

                          $15 Billion Saved : $334 Million Per Year




                                                                                                     Dollars Billions
                                                                                                                             $84.9
                                                                                                                                            $15 Billion
                                                                                                                                              Saved

                                                                                                                                               $69.9




   Flickr: watchlooksee         *Includes City General Fund engineering and public works functions

                                                                                                                        Business As Usual   Growing Smart
A1 v C1/C2

                                Revenues from New Growth
                      City Tax and Fee Revenue from New Growth to 2050

                          $2.7 Billion/Year in Additional Revenue to Cities




                                                                                                                  Dollars Billions
                                                                                                                                       $120 Billion         $864.5
                                                                                                                                         More *


                                                                                                                                         $744.2




   www.livinginplainfield.com    *Includes City revenues from Vehicle License Fees, Property Tax, and Sales Tax

                                                                                                                                     Business As Usual   Growing Smart
A1 v C2

                                 Building Energy
                                    Cumulative to 2050

                     Would Power ALL Homes in California for 20 Years




                                                     BTU Quadrillion
                                                                             74
                                                                            Quad
                                                                             Btu

                                                                                        15 Quadrillion
                                                                                         BTUs Saved


                                                                                             58
                                                                                            Quad
                                                                                             Btu




  Flickr: arbyreed

                                                                       Business As Usual Growing Smart
A1 v C2

                    Residential Water Use
                           Cumulative to 2050

          Water Savings Could Fill the San Francisco Bay 15 Times




                                              Acre Feet Millions
                                                                         328


                                                                                      78 Million
                                                                                      Acre Feet
                                                                                        Saved


                                                                                         250




                                                                   Business As Usual Growing Smart
A1 v C1/C2

                             Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
                                  Miles Per Household in 2050

                               10,500 Fewer Miles Per Household


                                                            27,557




                                                                              17,041




 Flickr: trash-photography

                                                       Business As Usual   Growing Smart
A1 v C2

                      Auto Fuel Consumed
                             Cumulative to 2050

          Equivalent to more than 3 years of oil imports to the US




                                              Gallons Billions
                                                                      750




                                                                                   277 Billion
                                                                                  Gallons Saved

                                                                                       473




                                                                 Business As Usual Growing Smart
A1 v C2

                           Annual Household Costs
                              Per Household Annual in 2050

                         $10,500 Savings Per Household in 2050

                                                                       Home Energy &
                                                       $ 21,000        Water
                                                                       Auto Fuel +
                                                                       Ownership




                                                                        $ 10,500




  Flickr: Diablo_Solar

                                                     Business As Usual Growing Smart
A1 v C1/C2

                       Respiratory Health Costs
                               Total Annual in 2035

                        Saves $1.66 billion annually by 2035

                                                      Business As Usual Growing Smart




                                                                                       $1.66 bil
                                                                                    less than BAU




  Flickr: Lance Page


                                                        Based on Analysis of Vision CA Results by TIAX, LLC
A1 v C2

                         Greenhouse Gas Emissions
                                     Annual in 2050
                Emissions offset by 90,000 square miles of trees in a year.
                      A forest covering more than1/2 of California.
                                                          Passenger Vehicles   Buildings




    www.exuberance.com                                        117


                                                                           191 MMT
                                                                         Reduced/Year
                                                              156
                                                                               55

    New York Times
                                                                               28
                                                           Business As   Growing Smart
                                                             Usual
China’s Development Challenge
Mode Split by Neighborhood Type
建设步行优先的邻里社区
1   Develop neighborhoods that
    promote walking




    Chongqing, China
优先发展自行车网络
2   Prioritize bicycle networks




    Bike-prioritized Intersection
创建密集的街道网络
  3                Create dense networks of
                   streets and paths




Recommended: Dense networks of streets and paths   Discouraged: Arterial-dominant street network
建议:创建密集的街道网络                                       不提倡:宽马路为主的干道网络
支持高质量的
4   公共交通服务
    Support high-quality transit




    Guangzhou
建设多功能混合的 邻里社区
5   Zone for mixed-use neighborhoods
将土地开发强度和
6                 公共交通承载力相匹配
                  Match density to transit
                  capacity




In Curitiba, Brazil, high-rise development is focused   In Guangzhou, density is focused around the BRT
within 200 meters of mass transit lines. 在巴西的库          corridor. The system’s capacity matches commute-
里提巴, 高层建筑距离大众公交线路不会超过200米。                              hour transit demand.
                                                        在广州, 捷运走廊附近的密度较集中。系统能力和通勤时
                                                        间的运输需求相匹配。
确保紧凑型发
7   展,
    提倡短程通勤
    Create compact
    regions with
    short
    commutes




                 Kunming Regional Growth
                 昆明区域发展
8
                 规范停车和道路使用,
                 增加出行便利性
                 Increase mobility by regulating
                 parking and road use




Cities may choose to charge tolls for use of   Singapore’s Electronic Road Pricing system has cut
overloaded roads.                              congestion and raised money for public transit and
城市可对拥堵路段征收过路费。                                 other uses.
                                               新加坡的电子道路收费系统可减轻拥堵情况
Study Area




Chongqing
Circulation and Streets
Design Challenge
设计挑战
                     Add Local Streets
                     添加辅路


                     Add Car-Free Streets
                     添加非机动车线路



                     Disperse Traffic on One-Way Couplets
                     通过单向二分路分散交通流



                     Superblocks
                     超大街区
YUELAI ECOLOGICAL CITY
       悦来生态城
Current and Proposed Plan Comparison
                     现有规划与新版规划对比




Yuelai : Superblock           Yuelai : Urban Network
悦来生态城:超大街区                    悦来生态城:城市格网
Work with the Site’s Natural Features
结合场地自然特色
意大利 圣吉米纳诺   San Gimignano, Italy
Open Space
开放空间




Yuelai Eco-City Phase 1
悦来生态城市
Create a Walkable and Bikeable Community
营造适宜步行与自行车的社区
Create Walkable 营造适宜步行的
Street Networks 街道网络




Auto‐free Street
步行街/慢行道
Create Walkable
Street Networks
营造适宜步行的
街道网络




Hillside Pedestrian
System
坡地步行系统
Ellipse Gateway
椭圆门户广场




Yuelai Eco-City Phase 1
悦来生态城市
Yuelai Urban Network Comparison




Yuelai : Superblock           Yuelai : Urban Network
悦来生态城:超大街区                    悦来生态城:城市格网
Urbanism in the age of climate change
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Urbanism in the age of climate change

  • 1.
  • 3.
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  • 8. Transportation Mode By Country Auto Walk/Bike Transit 100% 90% 86% 80% 70% 60% 65% 50% 52% 48% 40% 42% 37% 30% 20% 22% 10% 12% 11% 10% 11% 03% 00% United States France Sweden China 美国 法国 瑞典 中国
  • 10. Portland Metro Region VMT Daily VMT in National Average the Portland region declined 11% from 1996 to 2002, compared to a 6% increase nationally Portland Region Source: State Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS); Federal Highway Administration, USDOT
  • 11. Vision California 29% - 53% 29% - - % Population change, 2006-2035 65% % Jobs change, 2006-2035 - 60% 71% 49% 61% 26% 60% 24% 86% 40% 102% 28% 47% 16% 31% 27% 41% 30% 40%
  • 13. California Housing Demand 2035 New Units Needed by 2035 Four Largest MPOs Only – SCAG, SANDAG, MTC, SACOG 2,500 Thousands 2,000 2,076 1,500 Preliminary 1,629 Do Not 1,000 1,325 Duplicate 500 00 -500 -1,650 -1,000 Multifamily Townhouse Small Lot Large Lot Source: AC Nelson. The Shape of Metropolitan California in the 21st Century: Outlook to 2020 and 2035
  • 14. Two California Futures Urban Compact Standard 5% 10% 25% 35% 70% 55% Business As Usual Growing Smart
  • 15. Urban Infill - Oakland Uptown
  • 16. Same
  • 18. same
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 22. Housing Product Mix 2050 Total 25% Multifamily 33% 10% Attached 14% 20% 65% Small Lot 23% 53% 45% Large Lot 30% Business As Usual Growing Smart
  • 23. A1 v C1/C2 Land Consumed For New Growth to 2050 (mi2) More land than Delaware and Rhode Island combined 5,600 3,750 square miles saved 1,850 Business As Usual Growing Smart
  • 24. A1 v C1/C2 Infrastructure Cost for New Growth Capital Costs for New Growth to 2050 $4,000 Saved per New Housing Unit : $710 Million/Year Dollars Billions $165.4 $32 Billion Saved* $133.4 Flickr: sl-engineer *Includes local roads, waste water and sanitary sewer, water supply, and parks & recreation Business As Usual Growing Smart
  • 25. A1 v C1/C2 O&M Costs for New Growth Engineering & Public Works Costs for New Growth to 2050 $15 Billion Saved : $334 Million Per Year Dollars Billions $84.9 $15 Billion Saved $69.9 Flickr: watchlooksee *Includes City General Fund engineering and public works functions Business As Usual Growing Smart
  • 26. A1 v C1/C2 Revenues from New Growth City Tax and Fee Revenue from New Growth to 2050 $2.7 Billion/Year in Additional Revenue to Cities Dollars Billions $120 Billion $864.5 More * $744.2 www.livinginplainfield.com *Includes City revenues from Vehicle License Fees, Property Tax, and Sales Tax Business As Usual Growing Smart
  • 27. A1 v C2 Building Energy Cumulative to 2050 Would Power ALL Homes in California for 20 Years BTU Quadrillion 74 Quad Btu 15 Quadrillion BTUs Saved 58 Quad Btu Flickr: arbyreed Business As Usual Growing Smart
  • 28. A1 v C2 Residential Water Use Cumulative to 2050 Water Savings Could Fill the San Francisco Bay 15 Times Acre Feet Millions 328 78 Million Acre Feet Saved 250 Business As Usual Growing Smart
  • 29. A1 v C1/C2 Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Miles Per Household in 2050 10,500 Fewer Miles Per Household 27,557 17,041 Flickr: trash-photography Business As Usual Growing Smart
  • 30. A1 v C2 Auto Fuel Consumed Cumulative to 2050 Equivalent to more than 3 years of oil imports to the US Gallons Billions 750 277 Billion Gallons Saved 473 Business As Usual Growing Smart
  • 31. A1 v C2 Annual Household Costs Per Household Annual in 2050 $10,500 Savings Per Household in 2050 Home Energy & $ 21,000 Water Auto Fuel + Ownership $ 10,500 Flickr: Diablo_Solar Business As Usual Growing Smart
  • 32. A1 v C1/C2 Respiratory Health Costs Total Annual in 2035 Saves $1.66 billion annually by 2035 Business As Usual Growing Smart $1.66 bil less than BAU Flickr: Lance Page Based on Analysis of Vision CA Results by TIAX, LLC
  • 33. A1 v C2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Annual in 2050 Emissions offset by 90,000 square miles of trees in a year. A forest covering more than1/2 of California. Passenger Vehicles Buildings www.exuberance.com 117 191 MMT Reduced/Year 156 55 New York Times 28 Business As Growing Smart Usual
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38. Mode Split by Neighborhood Type
  • 39.
  • 40. 建设步行优先的邻里社区 1 Develop neighborhoods that promote walking Chongqing, China
  • 41. 优先发展自行车网络 2 Prioritize bicycle networks Bike-prioritized Intersection
  • 42. 创建密集的街道网络 3 Create dense networks of streets and paths Recommended: Dense networks of streets and paths Discouraged: Arterial-dominant street network 建议:创建密集的街道网络 不提倡:宽马路为主的干道网络
  • 43. 支持高质量的 4 公共交通服务 Support high-quality transit Guangzhou
  • 44. 建设多功能混合的 邻里社区 5 Zone for mixed-use neighborhoods
  • 45. 将土地开发强度和 6 公共交通承载力相匹配 Match density to transit capacity In Curitiba, Brazil, high-rise development is focused In Guangzhou, density is focused around the BRT within 200 meters of mass transit lines. 在巴西的库 corridor. The system’s capacity matches commute- 里提巴, 高层建筑距离大众公交线路不会超过200米。 hour transit demand. 在广州, 捷运走廊附近的密度较集中。系统能力和通勤时 间的运输需求相匹配。
  • 46. 确保紧凑型发 7 展, 提倡短程通勤 Create compact regions with short commutes Kunming Regional Growth 昆明区域发展
  • 47. 8 规范停车和道路使用, 增加出行便利性 Increase mobility by regulating parking and road use Cities may choose to charge tolls for use of Singapore’s Electronic Road Pricing system has cut overloaded roads. congestion and raised money for public transit and 城市可对拥堵路段征收过路费。 other uses. 新加坡的电子道路收费系统可减轻拥堵情况
  • 48.
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  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56.
  • 57.
  • 58.
  • 59. Circulation and Streets Design Challenge 设计挑战 Add Local Streets 添加辅路 Add Car-Free Streets 添加非机动车线路 Disperse Traffic on One-Way Couplets 通过单向二分路分散交通流 Superblocks 超大街区
  • 60.
  • 61. YUELAI ECOLOGICAL CITY 悦来生态城
  • 62. Current and Proposed Plan Comparison 现有规划与新版规划对比 Yuelai : Superblock Yuelai : Urban Network 悦来生态城:超大街区 悦来生态城:城市格网
  • 63. Work with the Site’s Natural Features 结合场地自然特色
  • 64. 意大利 圣吉米纳诺 San Gimignano, Italy
  • 65.
  • 66.
  • 67. Open Space 开放空间 Yuelai Eco-City Phase 1 悦来生态城市
  • 68.
  • 69. Create a Walkable and Bikeable Community 营造适宜步行与自行车的社区
  • 70. Create Walkable 营造适宜步行的 Street Networks 街道网络 Auto‐free Street 步行街/慢行道
  • 73.
  • 74.
  • 75.
  • 76.
  • 77. Yuelai Urban Network Comparison Yuelai : Superblock Yuelai : Urban Network 悦来生态城:超大街区 悦来生态城:城市格网