The document analyzes the economic outlook of various countries in June 2012, highlighting GDP growth forecasts, job creation, and international trade. It emphasizes Mexico's competitiveness in manufacturing and exports, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors. Additionally, it addresses economic stability, health coverage, poverty rates, and necessary reforms for sustainable and inclusive growth.

1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
AND FUTURE AGENDA
June 2012
ERNESTO CORDERO

2. Economic Growth
Gross Domestic Product, Constant Growth Forecast 2012
Prices (Percent change of constant prices)
(Percent Change)
China 8.2
8 India 6.9
Peru 5.5
Colombia 4.7
6 Chile 4.3
Argentina 4.2
Russia 4.0
4
Mexico 3.6
Korea 3.5
Australia 3.0
2
Brazil 3.0
South Africa 2.7
New Zealand 2.3
0
Turkey 2.3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 United States 2.1
-2 Canada 2.1
Japan 2.0 Average:
Norway 1.8
3.1
-4 Austria 0.9
United Kingdom 0.8
France 0.5
-6 Belgium 0.01
0 2 4 6 8 10
-8 Percent
Source: IMF 2

3. Job Creation
Unemployment Rate, 2011 Workers registered at IMSS
(%) (Millions)
16.0
25
20.7 15.5
20
15.0
15 14.5
14.0
10 9.1
7.6 7.3 7.2 6.7 13.5
6.0
4.5
5
13.0
0 12.5
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
2005 J
A
2006 J
A
2007 J
A
2008 J
A
2009 J
A
2010 J
A
2011 J
A
2012 J
A
Alemania
EEUU
Brasil
Canadá
Chile
España
México
Argentina
Original Adjustment
Source: IMF, estimates 3
Source: IMSS

4. Economic Stability
Total Deficit, 2010
International Reserves
(% of GDP)
(billion dollars)
32.
14 150
145
12 140
135
10 130
125
8 120
115
6 110
105
4 100
95
2 90
85
0 80
75
Rumania
Grecia
Lituania
México
Hungría
Bulgaria
Promedio otros
Perú
España
Promedio BBB
Túnez
70
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jul-08
Jul-09
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
4
Source: S&P (December 2010), SHCP México

5. Internal Market
Ranking 2012 Doing Mexico's Real Gross Domestic Product Index
Business vs
Singapu
r 1 US Industrial Production Index
(Index 2007 = 100)
105
Chile 39
100
Perú 41 95
90
Colombi
a 42
85
México 53 80
75
Uruguay 90
70
Argentin 65 GDP Index (MEX)
a 113
Industrial Production Index (US)
60
2011
2006
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
Brasil 126
5
Source: Doing Business Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database, April, 2012

6. Exports
 Non-oil exports have increased since 1993.
 Non-oil exports have recovered from the recent crisis and in 2011 registered
14.2% annual growth.
Non-Oil Exports
(monthly, adjusted, million dollars)
30,000
México is the most competitive country
25,000 in auto parts manufacturing (KPMG).
One out of 7 cars circulating in the US is
manufactured in México
20,000
The Mexican aerospace industry
15,000 occupies the first place in manufacturing
investment in the world (Deloitte).
10,000
México is the biggest producer of
television sets (International Trade
5,000 Center) and the third biggest producer
of smart phones (Global Trade Atlas).
0
Ene 07
Ene 93
Ene 94
Ene 95
Ene 97
Ene 98
Ene 99
Ene 00
Ene 01
Ene 02
Ene 03
Ene 04
Ene 05
Ene 06
Ene 08
Ene 09
Ene 10
Ene 96
Ene 11
Ene 12
6
Source: INEGI

7. Exports (2)
Total Goods Exports for Selected Manufactured Goods Exports for Selected
Latin American Countries in 2010 Latin American Countries in 2010
(%) (%)
100%
100% 3% 5%
5%
90% 2% 6%
90%
30% 10% 26%
33%
80% 80%
50% 52% 22% 19%
70% 62% 70%
60% 81% 60%
7%
50% 50%
45%
4% 6%
55% 37%
40%
60% 40% 24%
30%
45% 30%
47%
20% 36% 15%
20% 21% 21%
16% 25% 9%
10%
8% 10%
5% 2% 3%
0% 1% 9%
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru 0%
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru
Other Transactions Primary Products Manufactures
Natural Resource-Based Low-Tech Medium-Tech High-Tech
7
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America Source: Economic Commission for Latin America

8. Health Coverage
Health Coverage
(%) 100%
81%
67%
60%
57%
46%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
Source: Done by the Rafael Preciado Hernández Foundation with data from Secretaría de Salud. 8

9. Well-being
Poverty Extreme Poverty
(% of population less than 2 dlls) (%)
16 15
11.0
14 13 10.6
10.4
12
10.0
10
8
8
5 5
6
9.0
4
2
8.0
0
2008 2010
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: World Bank, World dataBank 9
Source: Coneval "Pobreza en México y en las Entidades Federativas 2008-2011", Slide106

10. Well-being
GDP per Capita PPP 2012
(Dlls) Índice de Desarrollo Humano
Human Development
Index 2011
Chile,
0.80 Mexico
17,691 Russia
18,000
Brazil
16,000 15,178 0.70 China
14,000
12,181
12,000 0.60
India
10,000 9,143
8,000 0.50
6,000
3,944
4,000 0.40
2,000
0 0.30
India China Brasil México Rusia
1990 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, Abril 2012 Source:UNDP 10

11. Sustainability and Inclusive Growth
Global Deceleration
US Exports Markets Diversification and Domestic Market
Europe Banking Supervision, System of Payments, & Debt Mkts
Structural Transformation
Competitiveness Labour, Energy, Telecomm,
Consumers …
Political Reform Reelection, Legislative Reduction,
Ratification, Second Round, ...
Federalism Revenues, Health, Education,
Security, Accountability, …
Rule of Law Legal Certainty, Justice Procurement,
Corruption, Enforcement, …
11

12. Sustainability and Inclusive Growth
Poverty Productivity
and
Inequality Financial
Reduction Markets
Education Infrastructure Innovation
Tech SMEs
Cash
Broader Intensive
Conditional Coverage Transport Capital
Transfer R&D Markets
Programmes
Energy
Improve Agencies Commercial
Social Quality Telecomm and and
Safety Net Development
Funds Bank
Structural Transformations
More Revenues used Effectively, Efficiently and Transparently
12

13. ernestocordero.mx @ErnestoCordero /ernestocorderoarroyo