Presentación de Ernesto Cordero Arroyo en la Conferencia "México Mañana 2012: Ideas para el Futuro" organizada por la asociación de estudiantes UChicago en Chicago, Illinois, EEUU.

1. MEXICO TOMORROW:
2012, IDEAS FOR THE
FUTURE
ERNESTO CORDERO-ARROYO
University of Chicago
April 21, 2012

2. 2
Economic Stability Has Translated into Growth
• Mexico has enjoyed a solid economic growth since 2010. For 2012, the IMF
growth forecasts has been revised upwards.
• Interest rates are close to historical minimums.
Growth Forecast 2012 Government Bonds
(Percent change of constant prices)
12 (%)
1 año
China 8.2
India 6.9 11 5 años
Peru 5.5
20 años
Colombia 4.7
Chile 4.3 10 30 años
Argentina 4.2
Russia 4.0
Mexico 3.6 9
Korea 3.5
Australia 3.0 8
Brazil 3.0
South Africa 2.7
New Zealand 2.3 7
Turkey 2.3
United States 2.1
Canada 2.1 6
Japan 2.0
Norway 1.8
Average:
3.1 5
Austria 0.9
United Kingdom 0.8
France 0.5 4
ene-07
sep-07
ene-08
sep-08
ene-09
sep-09
ene-10
may-07
may-08
may-09
jun-10
oct-10
feb-12
feb-11
jun-11
oct-11
Belgium 0.01
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Percent
Source: IMF. Source: SHCP

3. 3
The Exchange Rate and Inflation have remained
stable
Depreciation by Decade Inflation by Decade
12,576 15,062
12,500
450 15,000
1,200
400
1,000
350
300 800
250 221
600
200
401
150 400
100
200
50 31 55
0 0
'81-'90 '91-'00 '01-'10 '81-'90 '91-'00 '01-'10
Source: Banco de México.

4. 4
Responsible Public Finances
Total Deficit, 2010 International Reserves
(% of GDP) (billion dollars)
32.
14 150
145
12 140
135
10 130
125
8 120
115
6 110
105
4 100
95
2 90
85
0 80
75
Rumania
Grecia
Lituania
México
Hungría
Bulgaria
Promedio otros
Perú
España
Promedio BBB
Túnez
70
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jul-08
Jul-09
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Source: S&P (December 2010), SHCP México.

5. 5
Tax revenues have increased
• There has been an important effort to substitute oil revenues with tax revenues to
strengthen public finances.
• In recent years, significant progress has been made in expanding the tax base.
Non-Oil Tax Revenues Active Tax Payers
(% of GDP) (Millions)
40
10.5 10.4 36.9
35 33.5
10.0 10.0
10.0 28.3
30
25.9
9.5 25 23.9 24.5
9.5 9.3 20.5
20
9.0
9.0 15 12.3
8.6 9.4
10
8.5 8.4
5
8.0 0
2011*
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Dic 2011
Source: SHCP. Source: SHCP-SAT.

6. 0
10
20
30
40
Noruega
Din.
N.Z.
Islandia
R. Unido
Suecia
Irlanda
Australia
Lux.
Source: Revenue Statistics 2009, OECD
Hungria
Holanda
Italia
Fin.
Austria
Portugal
 Tax revenues are close to the OECD average.
Bélgica
Grecia
(% of GDP)
Polonia
Government
Turquía
Corea
Central Government Tax Revenues
Francia
Tax Revenues of the Central
México
R. Checa
Canadá
Eslovenia
España
Average: 21.2%
E.U.A.
6
Alemania
Japón
Suiza

7. 7
Social Security Contributions and Local Governments
Revenues
 When Mexico’s social security contributions and local governments revenues are added to
the central government revenues, Mexico falls to the last place of the OECD international
comparison.
 Mexico’s social security contributions represent a third of the OECD average.
 Mexico’s local governments revenues represent one sixth of the OECD average.
Tax Revenues:
Social Security Local
60 Local Government and Social Security Contributions Government
(% GDP) (%GDP) Revenues
(%GDP)
50 Seguridad Social Impuestos locales Tributarios
8.4
40
Average OCDE: 35.8%
30 6.2
19.5
20 2.8
1
10 2.8
16
- 1
Turquía
Portugal
Lux.
N.Z.
Din.
Holanda
Grecia
México
Francia
España
Suecia
Fin.
Irlanda
E.U.A.
Corea
Japón
Bélgica
Noruega
Islandia
Canadá
R. Checa
Alemania
Italia
Austria
Hungria
R. Unido
Polonia
Suiza
Australia
Eslovenia
Average OECD Mexico
Source: Revenue Statistics 2009, OECD
Source: OECD

8. 8
Property Taxes
 Mexico’s property tax collection is done by local governments. These receipts are low
compared to other countries.
% GDP
5 Property Tax Collection, 2009. 4.6
4 3.5
3.1
3 México:
2 1.7
1.3
0.9
1 0.7
0.2 0.3
0
Honduras
Argentina
Francia
Alemania
España
Irlanda
Ecuador
Colombia
Corea
Portugal
R. Unido
Canada
Grecia
Bolivia
Brasil
México
Venezuela
R. Checa
Perú
Italia
E.U.
R. Dom.
Source: Revenue Statistics 2009, OECD

9. 9
Expenditure Policy
 Programmed expenditure increased 55% between 2006 and 2012, which means that more
money has been assigned to priority programs.
Programmed Expenditure
(Million pesos, 2012)
2,869,583
Programmed Expenditure Increase
(real %)
55%
2006-2012
Education 21.6
1,846,375
Health and other social issues 38.4
Justice, National Security and Public 93.0
Order Issues
Poverty* 76.6
Investment 133.7
*Includes 3 social development subfunctions: social
protection, recreation, culture & environmental protection
2006 2012
Source: SHCP

10. Expenditure Policy
 Investment has increased as a share of programmed expenditure.
Programmed Expenditure
(Billion pesos, 2012)
1,864.9 2,869.6
15%
23%
84.9%
76.6%
2006 2012
Current Expediture Public Investment
Source: SHCP

11. Current Expenditure Composition
 Social programs expenditure has increased as a share of current expenditure.
Current Expenditure Composition
(%)
5.2%
22.7% Social Programs
20.5% 31.4% (subsidy)
44.8% Pensions and
retirement
Operational
Expenditure
21.1% Personal Services
29.5%
24.8%
Source: SHCP

12. 12
Deregulation and Simplification
México is ranked along with Chile, Perú
Mexico ranks 1st place in Latin America
and Colombia as best countries to do
in the Economic Complexity Index.
business in Latin America.
Ranking 2012 Doing Business The Atlas of Economic Complexity
78
Singapur 1
Chile 39
57
52
Perú 41
Colombia 42
30
México 53 20
13
Uruguay 90
1 2
México
Panama
Chile
Brasil
Japón
EEUU
Alemania
Argentina
Argentina 113
Brasil 126
Source: Doing Business. Source: Harvard, MIT

13. 13
Exports
Total Goods Exports for Selected Manufactured Goods Exports for
Latin American Countries in 2010 Selected Latin American Countries in
(Percentage) 2010
(Percentage)
100%
100% 3% 5%
5%
90% 2% 6%
90%
30% 10% 26%
33%
80% 80%
50% 52% 22% 19%
70% 62% 70%
60% 81% 60%
7%
50% 50%
45%
4% 6%
55% 37%
40%
60% 40% 24%
30%
45% 30%
47%
20% 36% 15%
20% 21% 21%
16% 25% 9%
10%
8% 10%
5% 1% 2% 3%
0% 9%
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru 0%
Other Transactions Primary Products Manufactures Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru
Natural Resource-Based Low-Tech Medium-Tech High-Tech
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America. Source: Economic Commission for Latin America.

14. 14
External Driver
 Non-oil exports have increased since 1993.
 Non-oil exports have recovered from the recent crisis and in 2011 registered 14.2%
annual growth.
Non-Oil Exports
(monthly, adjusted, million dollars)
30,000
México is the most competitive country
in auto parts manufacturing (KPMG).
25,000 One out of 7 cars circulating in the US is
manufactured in México
20,000
The Mexican aerospace industry
occupies the first place in manufacturing
15,000 investment in the world (Deloitte).
10,000 México is the biggest producer of
television sets (International Trade
Center) and the third biggest producer
5,000
of smart phones (Global Trade Atlas).
0
Ene 07
Ene 93
Ene 94
Ene 95
Ene 96
Ene 97
Ene 98
Ene 99
Ene 00
Ene 01
Ene 02
Ene 03
Ene 04
Ene 05
Ene 06
Ene 08
Ene 09
Ene 10
Ene 12
Ene 11
Source: INEGI

15. 15
Domestic Driver
 The Mexican banking system is solid and there has been positive monthly growth in credit
since the second quarter of 2010.
Commercial and Development Bank Credit to the Private Sector
(Annual change, %)
Total Vivienda Consumo Empresas
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
ene-08
abr-09
ene-11
nov-08
ago-10
dic-11
jun-08
oct-09
mar-10
jul-11
Source: Banxico

16. 16
Development Bank
 Development banks have increased credit to Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)
and rural producers.
 Nafin guarantees have contributed to increase by 89% (real terms) commercial banks
loans to SMEs during President Calderon's Administration.
Banking Credit to SMEs
Development Banks (Million Pesos)
(Jan-Dec 07 vs Jan-Dec 11)
 During 2011, 1.5 million SMEs were 135,491
supported by development banks, 85%
more than in 2007.1
89%
 FIRA and Financiera Rural have
increased their loans to rural producers
by 58%. 59,421
 80% of home mortgages were awarded
to poor families (earning less than 6 73,666
minimum wages), compared to 53% in
14,152
2007
2006 Jun-11
Loan with guarantees NAFIN Loan to SME
1/ Nafin and Bancomext with credit and guarantees (considers Source: NAFIN
microcredits).

17. 17
Infrastructure
 From 2002 to 2006, the annual average of budget investment in infrastructure was 3.6% of
GDP, while from 2007 to 2012 it will be 4.6%.
Infrastructure Investment Infrastructure
2002 – 2012 Investment 2000 – 2012
(% GDP) (Thousands of Millions of pesos, 2012)
5.5
5.0
OCDE Average
4.8
4.8
5.0
(2011)
4.5
3.3% 651.1
4.3
4.5
4.1
4.0
47.7%
3.9
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
440.7
3.1
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011a
2012a
Average 2001 - 2006 Average 2007 - 2012
Source: SHCP Source: SHCP

18. 18
• The unemployment rate in Mexico is lower than Spain, US and Canada. In
Latin America is lower than Argentina, Chile and Brazil.
• Expansion in employment has continued at a fast pace.
Unemployment Rate, 2011 Workers registered at IMSS
(%)
(Thousands, 3-month moving average)
25 15,500
20.7 15,300
20 15,100
14,900
15 14,700
14,500
9.1 14,300
10
7.6 7.3 7.2 14,100
6.7 6.0
4.5 13,900
5
13,700
13,500
0
ene-11
sep-11
mar-09
mar-10
mar-11
jul-11
sep-08
nov-08
ene-09
may-09
sep-09
nov-09
ene-10
may-10
sep-10
nov-10
may-11
ene-12
nov-11
jul-08
jul-09
jul-10
Alemania
España
EEUU
Canadá
Brasil
Argentina
Chile
México
Source: IMSS
Source: IMF, estimates.

19. 19
Income and Equality
GINI COEFFICIENT GDP per Capita PPP 2012*
20
18
17.61
15.68
16
14
12.30
12
10 9.20
8
6
3.97
4
2
0
India China Brasil México Rusia
Source: IMF “World Economic Outlook - September 2011”, *Adjusted to
purchasing power, IMF estimates.

20. 20
Reduction in Extreme Poverty
• Between 1996 and 2010, the percentage of the population living in extreme
poverty was reduced from 37.4% to 18.8%.
• Between 2000 and 2010, 47% of municipalities classified as “very highly
poor” and 40% of municipalities classified as “highly poor”, left these
classifications.
Population living in extreme (food) poverty
(Percentage)
40 37.4
35
30
25 24.1
21.4
20 18.8
15
10
5
0
1992 1996 2000 2010
Source: CONEVAL.

21. 21
Multi Factorial Poverty in Mexico
18.00% 19.30%
4.50% 5.80%
33.00% 28.70%
33.90% 35.80%
10.60% 10.40%
2008 2010
Extreme poverty Moderate poverty Vulnerable by social need Vulnerable by income No poors No vulnerable
Source: CONEVAL, 2010

22. 22
Education
• Universal enrollment has been achieved in basic education.
• Scholarships and investment in educational infrastructure have contributed to
increase the enrollment in secondary and tertiary education.
Enrollment in Basic Enrollment in Secondary Enrollment in Tertiary
Education Education Education
(%) (%) (%)
100 70 35
100 66.7
94.1 66.3
97.9
65
58.6 30.9
30.1
60.9
95 30
60
25.2
26.7
55
90 25
88.9 50
48.4
21.6
85 45 20
2010/e
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010/e
2000
2003
2006
2008
2001
2002
2004
2005
2007
2009
2010/e
Source: SEP.

23. 23
Health
• In 2011, Mexico reached universal health coverage.
- Seguro Popular affiliated more than 51 million Mexican with low incomes and
who did not have access to health services provided through social security.
• From to 2007 up to now, 2,874 new health units were constructed.
Accumulated Investment in Hospital
Seguro Popular Affiliation
Infrastructure
(Millon people) 55.9
55 51.5
(Billion pesos)
50 35 31.1
45 43 30
40 25
35 31 20
30 27 15 8.3 12.1 12.7
25 21 10
20 3.3 4.3
15 5 0.7
15 11 0
10
ISSSTE
ISSSTE
Salud
Salud
IMSS
IMSS
5
5
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Nov
2011 '01-'04 '07-'10 p/
Source: Secretary of Health. p/ Proyected.

24. 24
Housing
• Between 2007 and 2010, 3.3 million home mortgages were assigned, of
which 60% were given to low income families (earning below 4 minimum
wages).
Mortgages
(Millions)
4.0
3.5 3.3
3.0
2.5
2.0 1.7 Assigned to low
income families
1.5
1.0 0.8 2.1
0.5 1.2
0.5
0.0
95 - '98 01 - '04 07 - '10*
Source: Conavi.

25. 25
Quality of housing
• The percentage of homes without a cement floor was reduced from 13% to
6.2% between 2000 and 2010.
• More than 90% of homes have access to: Running
Water, Sewage, Electricity, Cement Floor, and Appliances.
Homes without a cement Homes with Running Water and Sewage
floor (%)
16 (%) 95 2000 2010
91.5
13.2 90.3
90 88.8
12
85
8
6.2
80 78.1
4
75
0
70
2000 2010 Running water Sewage
Agua entubada Drenaje
Source: INEGI. Source: INEGI.

26. 26
Human Development Index
• Better social and economic conditions have improved Mexico’s quality of life.
Índice de Desarrollo Humano
Human Development Index 2011
Chile, 0.80
0.80 Mexico, 0.77
Russia, 0.76
Brazil, 0.72
0.70
China, 0.69
0.60
India, 0.55
0.50
0.40
0.30
1990 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011
Source: UNDP.

27. 27
Sustainability and Inclusive Growth
Global Deceleration
US Exports Markets Diversification and Domestic Market
Europe Banking Supervision
Structural Transformation
Competitiveness Labor, Energy, Telecomm,
Consumers …
Political Reform Reelection, Legislative Reduction,
Ratification, Second Round, ...
Federalism Revenues, Health, Education,
Security, Accountability, …
Rule of Law Legal Certainty, Justice
Procurement,
Corruption, Enforcement, …

28. 28
Sustainability and Inclusive Growth
Poverty and
Inequality Productivity
Reduction
Education Infrastructure Innovation
Cash Broader Tech Intensive
Conditional
Coverage Transport
Transfer R&D
Programs
Energy
Improve Agencies and
Social Safety Quality Telecomm Funds
Net
Structural Transformations
More Revenues used Effectively, Efficiently, and Transparently

29. MEXICO TOMORROW:
2012, IDEAS FOR THE
FUTURE
ERNESTO CORDERO-ARROYO
University of Chicago
April 21, 2012