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1. SAHIC 2011
Santiago, Chile - September 2011
Global Shocks &
Economic Outlook
Latin America in Context
Pablo F.G. Bréard
Vice-President & Head of International Research
Global Economic Research
2. Global Economic Outlook ► The IMF View
“The global economy is in a dangerous new
phase. Global activity has weakened and
become more uneven, confidence has fallen
sharply recently, and downside risks are
growing”
World Economic Outlook Report, September 20, 2011
Global Economic Research
3. The Shifting Global Landscape
• Global Economic Rebalancing / Softness
• Europe/US/Japan Debt (Un)Sustainability
• Fiscal Consolidation & (De)Leveraging
• Erratic Governance / Intervention INXS
• Financial Market Volatility / Contagion
• (Dis)Orderly Currency Adjustments
• Credit Risk (Re)pricing / Ratings Shifts
Global Economic Research
4. Global Economic
Rebalancing
Latin America in Context
Global Economic Research
5. Global Economic Rebalancing ► The New G10
GDP size (US$ billion) in PPP terms 2011-12 (e)
19.3%
15,000
13,500 Americas
14.6%
12,000 Europe
10,500 Asia
9,000
7,500
6,000
5.6% 5.8%
4,500
3.9%
2.8% 2.9% 3%
3,000 2.3% 2.8%
1,500
UK
USA
India
Italy
Russia
Germany
China
France
Brazil
Japan
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2011)
Global Economic Research
6. Neo G10 ► Growth, Inflation & Debt Dynamics
Consumer Price Inflation % Change (2011-12e)
10 9.4
Global Growth > Emerging Market Strength Global Inflation > Emerging Markets under Pressure 8.0
8.4 8
6.8
Real GDP % Change (2011-12e)
8
Developed 6.0
6 Developed
6 4.8
Developing
(BRIC) 4.7 Developing
4 (BRIC)
3.8 3.3
4
2.2 2.4 2.4
2.6 2.0
1.9 2.2 2
2 1.4 1.5 1.1
0.9 0.9
0
0
Germany
USA
Italy
Japan
UK
China
Brazil
India
Russia
France
Italy
Germany
Brazil
India
Spain
France
Russia
China
USA
Japan
UK
General Government Borrowing Needs % GDP (2011-12e)
0 240 231
Public Sector Gross Debt % GDP (2011-12e)
Fiscal Outlook > Deep Adjustments under Way Debt Sustainability > Credit Risk Repricing
220
(1.3) 200
(2)
(1.9) (1.6) 180
(2.5) Developed
160
(4) 140
(3.9) Developing 120
120 (BRIC) 101
(6) 100 85 89
(5.5) 80
(5.9) 80 65 66 68
Developed
60
(8)
(7.8) (7.7) Developing 40
17
(BRIC) 20 9
(10) (9.2) (9.2)
0
USA
Italy
India
France
Russia
China
Japan
UK
Spain
Brazil
Germany
Germany
USA
Italy
Spain
Japan
UK
China
Brazil
India
Russia
France
Global Economic Research
7. Foreign Capital Flows ► Emerging Markets in Fashion
1300
Source: Institute of International Finance - June 2011
1200
1100
500
1000 Foreign Direct Investment
900 Portfolio Investment
371 423 435
Multilaterals
800 Bank Lending
US$ billion
700 Bond Issuance
600
357
500 171 508
400 201
300 154
200 102
138 143
100 118
0
-100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011f
2012f
Global Economic Research
8. Global Stocks ► Emerging Market OutPerformance
Global Equity 5Y % Return USD % Return since March 2009
25% WORLD 67
20%
15% North America 68
10% Europe
5%
European Union 71 Asia
0%
-5% Americas
-10%
-15%
-20% Developing Asia 104
-25%
-30% BRIC 109
-35%
-40% Developing
Americas 120
-45%
-50% Developing
135
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Europe
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
USD-adjusted Total Return (%)
Global Economic Research
9. LATAM Equities ► Favourable Trend / Correction?
Country Index Return (5-yr) % L/C Return since March 2009
Peru IGBVL 195%
125%
Argentina MERVAL 186%
100%
75% Venezuela IBVC 168%
50%
Mexico IPC 107%
25%
Colombia IGBC 80%
0%
Peru IGBVL
Mexico IPC
-25% Colombia IGBC Chile IPSA 71%
Chile IPSA
Brazil BOVESPA
-50%
Brazil BOVESPA 55%
Sep-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
Jan-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 200%
Global Economic Research
10. Global Recovery
Dynamics
Latin America in Context
Global Economic Research
11. Global Growth ► Gradual, Soft & Uneven Recovery
Economic Zone 1999-08 2009 2010e 2011f 2012f
North America 2.6 (2.9) 3.2 1.9 2.2
2.4 (2.6) 3.0 1.7 2.1
Euro Zone 1.9 (4.2) 1.7 1.6 1.2
Japan 1.4 (5.2) 4.0 0.3 3.0
Developing Asia 7.7 5.6 9.4 7.8 8.0
10.1 9.1 10.4 9.3 9.5
Developing Europe 5.3 (5.2) 4.6 4.5 3.9
Latin America (ex Mex) 3.3 (0.1) 6.2 4.0 4.1
3.1 (0.2) 7.5 3.6 4.0
Global Economic Research
12. Americas ► North-South Growth Divergence
5.9
6.0 5.6
10-year average
Real GDP (annual % growth rate)
5.5
5.0
5.0 4.6
2011 - 12 (e)
4.5
4.0 3.8
3.6 3.6
3.5
3.0
2.5 2.2
1.9
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Mexico
Argentina
USA
Canada
Chile
Venezuela
Peru
Brazil
Colombia
Global Economic Research
19. Global FX Volatility ► USD weakness in Focus
EUR vs. USD (2005-2010) USD % loss since 06 Jun 2010
1.60 1.59 CHF 32
1.56
AUD 24
1.52
1.48 JPY
1.44
EUR
1.40
1.37 GBP
1.36
1.31
CAD 7.3
1.27
1.23
CNY
Americas
1.19 1.20 BRL
Asia/Oceania
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
RUB Europe/Africa
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Global Economic Research
20. Bilateral Deficit by Major Partner US $ billion
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
Aug-02
Dec-02
Apr-03
Aug-03
Dec-03
Apr-04
Aug-04
Global Economic Research
Dec-04
Apr-05
Aug-05
Dec-05
Apr-06
Aug-06
Dec-06
Apr-07
Japan
Mexico
Europe
Canada
Aug-07
China
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Aug-10
Dec-10
US Trade (im)Balance ► China Connection
Apr-11
21. FX Outlook 2011-12 ► LATAM in Global Context
2010 2011 2012
EUR/USD 1.34 1.45 1.40
USD/JPY 81 80 85
USD/GBP 1.56 1.63 1.70
USD/CAD 1.00 0.96 0.94
USD/CNY 6.61 6.25 5.88
USD/MXN 12.3 12.3 12.5
USD/CLP 468 485 495
USD/PEN 2.81 2.76 2.70
USD/COP 1,908 1,850 1,900
USD/BRL 1.66 1.70 1.75
Global Economic Research
22. FX Reserves ► Fast & Steady Accumulation
700
Colombia
Peru
600 Chile
Argentina
500 Venezuela
Mexico
US $ billion
Brazil
400
300
200
100 Brazil accounts for over 50%
of the region’s FX Reserves
0
Sep-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Global Economic Research
29. European Debt Crisis ► Latin America in Context
Central Government Debt Credit Default Risk Metrics
Chile
140
Mexico
120 Colombia PIIGS
% Of GDP (2011-12 e)
LATAM Brazil
LATAM
100 Peru
PIIGS
Argentina
80
Venezuela
60
Spain
40 Italy
Ireland
20
Portugal
0 Greece
Ireland
Colombia
Argentina
Italy
Brazil
Mexico
Chile
Portugal
Spain
Peru
Venezuela
Greece
500
0
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Basis Points
Global Economic Research
30. European Debt Crisis ► Latin America in Context
Current Account Balance Government Fiscal Balance
0.0 0.0
-0.2
-0.5
(1.0) (1.0)
2011-12 Government Net Borrowing (% GDP)
( 1.2 )
2011-12 Current Account Balance (% GDP)
- 1.5 -1.5
(2.0) (2.0)
- 2 .1
- 2 .2
- 2 .5
(3.0) ( 2 .7 ) (3.0)
-2.9
- 3 .1
-3.4
(4.0) (4.0)
( 3 .9 )
(5.0) ( 4 .7 ) (5.0)
LATAM
( 5 .0 )
LATAM
(6.0) (6.0)
(7.0)
PIIGS (7.0) ( 6 .8 ) ( 6 .6 )
PIIGS
( 7 .3 )
(8.0) (8.0)
(9.0) (9.0)
( 9 .1)
(10.0) (10.0)
( 10 .0 )
Spain
Italy
Chile
Colombia
Brazil
Portugal
Ireland
Mexico
Peru
Greece
Spain
Brazil
Portugal
Italy
Peru
Chile
Ireland
Colombia
Mexico
Greece
Global Economic Research