The document discusses the economic outlook for Slovakia in 2013, highlighting a growth projection of 1.5% amid ongoing challenges from the eurozone debt crisis. It emphasizes the importance of government policy and the automotive industry’s declining contribution to GDP growth. The overall economic environment is characterized by high public debt and lower inflation compared to previous years.

1. Slovakia Outlook 2013
Róbert Prega, Tatra banka
Chief economist

2. Slovak economy - catching up regional peers
GDP in PPS per capita (EU27=100)
85% 85%
Czech rep.
80% 80%
75% Slovakia 75%
Poland
70% 70%
65% 65%
Hungary
60% 60%
55% 55%
50% 50%
45% 45%
40% 40%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
2
Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

3. Economic environment - still not very
supportive in the this year
GDP growth%
6.0
4.0
1.8
2.0
0.5
1.5
0.0
-0.1
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013f 2015f
Germany Eurozone
3
Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

4. Expected improvement in H2 2013
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
4

5. Medium-term growth prospect of the
economy depends also on the government
GDP growth %
12.0
10.5
10.0
8.0 8.3
6.7
6.0 5.8
4.4
5.1 3.2 3.5
4.0 4.6 4.8
3.5
2.0 2.4 2.5
1.4
0.9
0.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-4.9
-6.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
5
Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, Tatra banka RESEARCH

6. Strong contribution of automotive industry
will decrease in the year
Structure of GDP growth
8%
5.9%
6%
4.2% 3.4% 2.4% 0.9%
4%
5.5%
3.2%
2% 2.6%
1.4%
1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8%
0% 0.4% 0.2%
-0.4%
-2%
-4.5%
-4%
-4.9%
-6%
2 008 2 009 2 010 2 011 2 012 2 013
Automotive industry Rest of economy 6
Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak republic, Tatra banka RESEARCH

7. Growth differential is narrowing...
Growth differential SR versus Eurozone
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012e 2014f 7
Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

8. How strong is commitment of government to
decrease the deficit?
60 9
54.9 55.8 56.0
8.0
7.7 52.2 8
50
43.3 7
41.0
40 6
35.4
4.9
4.6 5
30 27.8
4
20 2.9 3
2.4
2.1 1.9
2
10
1
0 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Public Debt Deficit as % of GDP 8
Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, Ministry of Finance

9. High public debt - global problem
Public debt % of GDP
250
200
150
% of GDP
100
50
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Eurozone USA Japan Slovak Republic 9
Source: Eurostat, OECD

10. Slower growth, lower inflation
Key macroeconomic ndicators in 2013
versus 2012
16.0
13.8 14.1
14.0
12.0 2012 e 2013 f
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.6
4.0 3.6
2.9
2.4 2.2
2.0
0.9 0.6 -0.2
0.0
GDP CPI Employment Unemployment Deficit
-2.0
10
Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak republic, Tatra banka RESEARCH

11. Summary
• Eurozone debt crisis is not by far fixed and risk of another
turmoil on the market is still very material
• ECB will remain key stabilisation factor
• Eurozone will be still on the verge of recession in H1 2013
with prospect of gradual recovery in H2 2013 and 2014
• Growth perspective for Slovak economy determined by
Eurozone a economic policy of government in medium
term
11

12. Thank you for attention.
12