Tatra Banka's Robert Prega presented his outlook on Slovakia's economy at the 2013 Tax Seminar of the Italian-Slovak Chamber of Commerce.

1. Slovakia Outlook 2013
Róbert Prega, Tatra banka
Chief economist

2. Slovak economy - catching up regional peers
GDP in PPS per capita (EU27=100)
85% 85%
Czech rep.
80% 80%
75% Slovakia 75%
Poland
70% 70%
65% 65%
Hungary
60% 60%
55% 55%
50% 50%
45% 45%
40% 40%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
2
Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

3. Economic environment - still not very
supportive in the this year
GDP growth%
6.0
4.0
1.8
2.0
0.5
1.5
0.0
-0.1
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013f 2015f
Germany Eurozone
3
Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

4. Expected improvement in H2 2013
Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
4

5. Medium-term growth prospect of the
economy depends also on the government
GDP growth %
12.0
10.5
10.0
8.0 8.3
6.7
6.0 5.8
4.4
5.1 3.2 3.5
4.0 4.6 4.8
3.5
2.0 2.4 2.5
1.4
0.9
0.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-4.9
-6.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
5
Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, Tatra banka RESEARCH

6. Strong contribution of automotive industry
will decrease in the year
Structure of GDP growth
8%
5.9%
6%
4.2% 3.4% 2.4% 0.9%
4%
5.5%
3.2%
2% 2.6%
1.4%
1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8%
0% 0.4% 0.2%
-0.4%
-2%
-4.5%
-4%
-4.9%
-6%
2 008 2 009 2 010 2 011 2 012 2 013
Automotive industry Rest of economy 6
Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak republic, Tatra banka RESEARCH

7. Growth differential is narrowing...
Growth differential SR versus Eurozone
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012e 2014f 7
Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

8. How strong is commitment of government to
decrease the deficit?
60 9
54.9 55.8 56.0
8.0
7.7 52.2 8
50
43.3 7
41.0
40 6
35.4
4.9
4.6 5
30 27.8
4
20 2.9 3
2.4
2.1 1.9
2
10
1
0 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Public Debt Deficit as % of GDP 8
Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, Ministry of Finance

9. High public debt - global problem
Public debt % of GDP
250
200
150
% of GDP
100
50
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Eurozone USA Japan Slovak Republic 9
Source: Eurostat, OECD

10. Slower growth, lower inflation
Key macroeconomic ndicators in 2013
versus 2012
16.0
13.8 14.1
14.0
12.0 2012 e 2013 f
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.6
4.0 3.6
2.9
2.4 2.2
2.0
0.9 0.6 -0.2
0.0
GDP CPI Employment Unemployment Deficit
-2.0
10
Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak republic, Tatra banka RESEARCH

11. Summary
• Eurozone debt crisis is not by far fixed and risk of another
turmoil on the market is still very material
• ECB will remain key stabilisation factor
• Eurozone will be still on the verge of recession in H1 2013
with prospect of gradual recovery in H2 2013 and 2014
• Growth perspective for Slovak economy determined by
Eurozone a economic policy of government in medium
term
11

12. Thank you for attention.
12