Climate Change, Sri Lanka

1. Climate Change:
Priori0es and Concerns
for Sri Lanka
Asoka Abeygunawardana
Chairman
Strategic Enterprise
Management Agency

2. GHG emissions
(GtCO2e/yr)
120
100
Baseline
80
60
40
2°C
20 (> 66% chance)
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
+ 7°C
+ 6°C
+ 5°C
+ 4°C
+ 3°C
+ 2°C
+ 1°C
+/- 0
2020:
~52 GtCO2e
2030:
~42 GtCO2e
2010:
47.5 GtCO2e
Es0mated global
warming by 2100
(°C rel. 1850-1900)
What are we aiming for?
Staying within the 2oC target

3. 2°C pathways
Global total emissions:
42 GtCO2e (range: 31-44)
Baseline
Global total emissions:
65 GtCO2e (range: 60-70)
Current policy trajectory
Global total emissions:
60 GtCO2e (range: 58-62)
Uncondi0onal INDC case
Global total emissions:
56 GtCO2e (range: 54-59)
Condi0onal INDC case
Global total emissions:
54 GtCO2e (range: 52-57)
Uncond. INDC case
12
14
Cond. INDC case
3.4 cm The Gap
INDC contributions and
the emissions gap
What do INDCs
contribute?
• Gap is in the order of
12 to 14 GtCO2e/yr
Will this be sufficient to
stay below 2°C?
• Global average
temperature increase
will be in the range of
<3 - 3.5°C by the end of
the century

4. LONG TERMGENERATION
EXPANSIONPLAN
2015-2034
CEYLON ELECTRICITY BOARD
Transmission and Generation Planning Branch
Transmission Division
Ceylon Electricity Board
Sri LankaJuly 2015
For 50 Years

5. 0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Energy (GWh) CEB Genar0on Plan -Base Case - 2013-2032
Oil
Coal
NCRE
New Major Hydro
ExisXng Major Hydro
Source: CEB
CEB Plan

6. • I will prepare the groundwork
for the country to fulfil the
basic energy requirements of
the people through renewable
energy sources such as Dendro
(biomass) power, wind power,
solar power, ocean energy etc.
• I will specially take acXon to
build dendro power staXons
throughout the country so that
electricity consumers’ money that
hitherto drained to the pockets of
the coal and oil mafia will flow to
the rural peasantry. Thus I will
make power generaXon a chief
means of raising the living
standards of the peasantry.
• I will introduce systems and
establish infrastructure for
energy conservaXon and use new
efficient technology for the
purpose. Houses and buildings
will be designed for ensuring low
carbon lifestyles.
• I will act to design a system with
minimum transport requirements
in town and country planning.

7. 0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Energy (GWh) CEB Genar0on Plan -Base Case - 2013-2032
Oil
Coal
NCRE
New Major Hydro
ExisXng Major Hydro
Source: CEB
CEB vs Govt. Policy
RE
DSM