Macroeconomic themes 2013 and beyond: normalcy returns
- Global growth will be slow but steady as the world slowly returns to economic fundamentals
- Central banks will continue easing policies but become wary of potential excesses
- Inflation risks remain subdued while corporate earnings and balance sheets remain strong
Key investment themes focus on diversification and exploiting opportunities in international markets, cyclical stocks, and less correlated alternative strategies. Bonds remain important for income and protection from equity volatility.
The document summarizes recent market contradictions and distortions that are contributing to investor risk aversion and confusion. Government interventions like stimulus programs, quantitative easing, and bailouts have generated unintended side effects in markets. Politicians debate the merits of intervention versus free markets. Falling stock prices may paradoxically reduce risk as valuations decline, setting up markets for better long-term returns according to some analysts. Overall, distortions and political debates are causing uncertainty, stagnation, and falling stock prices.
J.T. Mullen is the Chief Investment Strategist at Fairport Asset Management, bringing over 30 years of experience. Previously, he was the Chief Financial Officer at The Cleveland Foundation for 23 years, growing their endowment from $400 million to $1.8 billion. John Silvis is the Director of Investments at Fairport and oversees the research team and investment decisions. Richard D'Amico is the Manager of Investments and oversees fixed income models and alternative investments.
The quarterly market review summarizes market performance in the first quarter of 2013. Global markets posted modest gains, with U.S. stocks outperforming international markets. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new all-time highs. Ten-year returns remain positive across most asset classes and geographic regions, reinforcing the benefits of diversification and long-term investing.
The document discusses recent market trends and political issues in the US. It notes that gold, silver, oil prices hit multi-year highs while the US dollar fell against other currencies. Inflation increased in China but remained stable in the US. Congress passed bills to reduce the federal budget deficit. The document then summarizes a survey of baby boomers that found most are concerned about retiring as planned due to financial uncertainties.
The document discusses rising consumer prices, including the price of coffee. It provides three reasons for higher coffee prices: increasing costs of fertilizer and farm goods, rising affluence in developing countries leading to higher demand, and adverse weather affecting coffee production. While core inflation remains low, food and energy prices are rising. The yield curve is also discussed as a potential indicator of future recessions.
The document discusses global imbalances in current accounts across countries. It shows that the US has the largest deficit while China, emerging Asia, Japan, and oil exporters have large surpluses. Key reasons for the US deficit include low interest rates, overconsumption, and tax cuts. Global imbalances are undesirable as they can destabilize the global financial system if the US deficit is viewed as unsustainable. The document recommends various macroeconomic and international policy options to reduce imbalances, including increasing US exports, promoting savings, and allowing more exchange rate flexibility.
The document summarizes recent economic developments and market performance. It notes that while stock prices doubled from early 2009 lows, the underlying economy has seen only modest growth with issues like high unemployment and government debt. It discusses PIMCO's view that advanced economies will see sluggish growth and high unemployment for the next 3-5 years, while emerging markets prosper, which is playing out. The latest economic data is keeping policymakers up at night as they try to stimulate the economy amid an end to QE2 and fiscal policy difficulties in Congress.
• Infrastructure—the other big fix
• What is the stock market saying about earnings?
• As short-term markets thaw, bond investors focus on long-term risk
• Hedge funds suffer their worst month ever
• Does a $1 trillion deficit matter?
• Q&A: Sizing up Obama’s policies and politics
The document summarizes recent market contradictions and distortions that are contributing to investor risk aversion and confusion. Government interventions like stimulus programs, quantitative easing, and bailouts have generated unintended side effects in markets. Politicians debate the merits of intervention versus free markets. Falling stock prices may paradoxically reduce risk as valuations decline, setting up markets for better long-term returns according to some analysts. Overall, distortions and political debates are causing uncertainty, stagnation, and falling stock prices.
J.T. Mullen is the Chief Investment Strategist at Fairport Asset Management, bringing over 30 years of experience. Previously, he was the Chief Financial Officer at The Cleveland Foundation for 23 years, growing their endowment from $400 million to $1.8 billion. John Silvis is the Director of Investments at Fairport and oversees the research team and investment decisions. Richard D'Amico is the Manager of Investments and oversees fixed income models and alternative investments.
The quarterly market review summarizes market performance in the first quarter of 2013. Global markets posted modest gains, with U.S. stocks outperforming international markets. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new all-time highs. Ten-year returns remain positive across most asset classes and geographic regions, reinforcing the benefits of diversification and long-term investing.
The document discusses recent market trends and political issues in the US. It notes that gold, silver, oil prices hit multi-year highs while the US dollar fell against other currencies. Inflation increased in China but remained stable in the US. Congress passed bills to reduce the federal budget deficit. The document then summarizes a survey of baby boomers that found most are concerned about retiring as planned due to financial uncertainties.
The document discusses rising consumer prices, including the price of coffee. It provides three reasons for higher coffee prices: increasing costs of fertilizer and farm goods, rising affluence in developing countries leading to higher demand, and adverse weather affecting coffee production. While core inflation remains low, food and energy prices are rising. The yield curve is also discussed as a potential indicator of future recessions.
The document discusses global imbalances in current accounts across countries. It shows that the US has the largest deficit while China, emerging Asia, Japan, and oil exporters have large surpluses. Key reasons for the US deficit include low interest rates, overconsumption, and tax cuts. Global imbalances are undesirable as they can destabilize the global financial system if the US deficit is viewed as unsustainable. The document recommends various macroeconomic and international policy options to reduce imbalances, including increasing US exports, promoting savings, and allowing more exchange rate flexibility.
The document summarizes recent economic developments and market performance. It notes that while stock prices doubled from early 2009 lows, the underlying economy has seen only modest growth with issues like high unemployment and government debt. It discusses PIMCO's view that advanced economies will see sluggish growth and high unemployment for the next 3-5 years, while emerging markets prosper, which is playing out. The latest economic data is keeping policymakers up at night as they try to stimulate the economy amid an end to QE2 and fiscal policy difficulties in Congress.
• Infrastructure—the other big fix
• What is the stock market saying about earnings?
• As short-term markets thaw, bond investors focus on long-term risk
• Hedge funds suffer their worst month ever
• Does a $1 trillion deficit matter?
• Q&A: Sizing up Obama’s policies and politics
The document discusses uncertainty in the current economic situation and markets. It notes there is uncertainty in Washington over budget issues, the economy's recovery from recession, the value of the dollar, and the war on terrorism. As financial advisors, the author's firm tries to account for uncertainty by considering best and worst case scenarios and balancing investments. The document also notes that despite weak economic growth, corporate profits are at record levels, but middle-class spending remains stagnant, holding back stronger growth.
The stock market rose sharply in the first quarter of 2011, with the S&P 500 increasing 5.4%. Commodity prices also increased, driven in part by political instability in the Middle East, which caused oil prices to rise over 16% and settle above $100 per barrel. The US dollar continued to weaken against other major currencies during the quarter. Investor fear, as measured by the volatility index, ended the quarter flat despite events that caused spikes in concern during the period. Overall, strong economic growth and expected corporate earnings seemed to outweigh geopolitical and disaster related worries in the markets.
Over the next decade, we believe the profitability
of all West Virginia businesses will be impacted by
entrepreneurial energies abroad that are fueling the creation of a new global middle class. This workshop will help all West Virginia business owners, professionals, and executives — even with no export business or foreign suppliers — understand why future practices to make and manage money right here in West Virginia will need to differ from the practices that have worked in the past.
The document discusses how emerging markets were negatively impacted by changes in US monetary policy in 2013. Specifically, it discusses how the US Federal Reserve's tapering of its quantitative easing program led to capital outflows from emerging markets as foreign investors shifted funds back to the US. This created "taper turbulence" in emerging markets, depreciating their currencies and stock markets. The document analyzes which emerging markets are most vulnerable to further changes in US monetary policy based on factors like foreign capital levels, current account balances, and economic growth trends. South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil are highlighted as being particularly vulnerable.
De los 15 mercados objeto de estudio, sólo Sudáfrica y Turquía muestran debilidad en los tres factores de riesgo.
Cinco mercados, Brasil, Chile, Hungría, México y Polonia, se muestran vulnerables en dos de los tres factores de riesgo.
Ocho mercados, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Israel, Malasia, Rumanía, Rusia y Corea del Sur, muestran salvedades en uno de los tres factores de riesgo.
The document summarizes an investment presentation by Bill Glavin, CEO of OppenheimerFunds. It discusses trends in the global economy and opportunities for investors. Specifically, it notes that US deficits are declining and recent policy actions have stabilized debt levels for the next decade. However, mandatory spending on entitlement programs remains unsustainable long-term given demographic trends. The presentation also highlights growth opportunities in emerging markets as wealth increases across Asia, Latin America, and other regions.
Economies worldwide have rebounded since the 2008
Financial Crisis, along with rising global equity and
tightening credit markets. Even the rebound in earnings
growth and profit margins has been remarkable. Yet, the
U.S. economic growth hasn’t broken out as hoped, after
significant global fiscal and monetary stimulus, including
slashing interest rates. Unemployment remains high and
volatility has been unnerving for investors. Learn more at: www.nafcu.org/nifcus
Could the Emerging Market Slowdown Jeopardize the Global Recovery?QNB Group
The document discusses the potential impact of slowing growth in emerging markets on the global economic recovery. It notes that emerging market growth has sharply declined, affecting global export demand and slowing growth in advanced economies. However, if advanced economies continue their recovery and make up for weaker emerging market demand, the global economy could maintain its momentum. The recovery depends on the normalization of US monetary policy - a gradual recovery in the US would support advanced economies while further slowing emerging markets, leading to a more balanced global recovery.
The document discusses cooperation vs unilateral intervention in international economics. It argues that while countries agree on goals like global growth and rebalancing, individual countries prioritize domestic goals which can lead to policy spillovers and retaliation that result in suboptimal outcomes. Cooperation through forums like the G20 faces challenges due to diverging economic performance among members and lack of enforcement. Regional arrangements and integration can facilitate cooperation where interests converge. Overall, cooperation requires addressing policy spillovers and providing credible incentives and commitments to avoid outcomes where all countries are worse off.
Vietnam's Recent Economic Development 2013Quynh LE
This report provides an update on Vietnam's recent economic developments. It summarizes that global growth is stabilizing at a moderate pace, though recovery in industrial production has been uneven across countries. Financial market conditions have improved due to monetary easing, but capital costs for developing countries are rising as risks in high-income countries recede. Inflation remains benign in most countries, prompting further monetary policy easing. Trade growth has slowed after a cyclical rebound, while most commodity prices have weakened in response to increased supply and substitution.
The document discusses how interest rates have behaved since the financial crisis and makes several predictions:
1) Tapering of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates as investors flee to safety in bonds, increasing bond prices and lowering yields.
2) Previous tapers have weakened the economy, pushing interest rates lower, and ending quantitative easing and zero interest rate policies may end the long but fragile economic expansion.
3) Interest rates will remain low due to disinflationary forces like low wage growth and money hoarding offsetting increases to the money supply.
4) The document predicts the Fed's balance sheet will remain above 2011 levels until 2020 and policy rates will
A euphoric start to 2019!
After a dismal end to last year, global stock markets rebounded in the first quarter making up much of the ground lost in the final quarter of 2018. The underpinnings of this sudden reversal in sentiment are less clear. There appears to be a disconnect between the direction of the stock markets and the direction of the global economies. Economists continue to moderate the outlook for future economic growth. The issues that vexed the markets in 2018 remain and in many cases, those issues have deteriorated even further.
The jobs recovery from the 2007 recession has been painfully slow compared to previous recessions. Over 4 years after employment peaked, only half the jobs lost have been recovered. Possible reasons for the slow recovery include financial crises typically resulting in slow recoveries, policy uncertainty in Washington, extended unemployment benefits, and eurozone crisis uncertainty dampening business demand. However, record corporate profits and cash levels could eventually provide a boost to hiring and the broader economy if companies begin spending more on new hires.
The document summarizes recent economic data and stock market performance. It notes that less than three weeks ago, the economy appeared to be weakening and falling into a new recession, but recent data on auto sales, retail sales, and job growth has been better than expected, helping the stock market rise over 11% in two weeks. However, the author cautions it is too early to say the economy has fully turned around and still has improvements to make before a full recovery.
Republicans and Democrats in Congress are struggling to reach an agreement to raise the federal debt ceiling before an August 2 deadline, which could trigger a default on US debt obligations. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned that a US debt default would cause widespread financial panic and uncertainty, similar to or even worse than the 2008 global financial crisis. While politicians recognize the risks, most analysts believe a last-minute deal will be reached to raise the debt ceiling and avoid default, though it may only provide a temporary solution.
As the third quarter drew to a close, Canada had yet to come to terms with the US and Mexico on a renewed trade agreement. Investors woke up on Monday, October 1, 2018 to news that a deal had in fact been cobbled together at the last minute and that all was well in the world.
Despite a strong start in January, global stock markets became unnerved in the latter part of the first quarter of 2018. Rising trade tensions contributed to the unease investors exhibited as the US took a stronger stance on bilateral trade negotiations through the enactment of targeted tariffs.
Global Corporate Credit Twin Debt Booms Seek US 57 Trillion 2019Jayan Dhru
This document discusses Standard & Poor's assessment of risks to global corporate credit quality over the next five years. It finds that while overall risk is moderate, the two biggest risks are rising defaults in China's corporate debt market, which has grown rapidly, and the surge in leveraged finance in the U.S. driven by low interest rates. The document estimates global companies will seek $57 trillion in debt through 2019, with China accounting for 40% of demand. It also analyzes various economic and financial factors that could influence corporate credit conditions.
Rinaldi's Smith School of Business Students Discuss Key Findings from Recent ...Joseph Rinaldi
Professor Joe Rinaldi has built up valuable relationships during his thirty years of capital markets and asset management experience. Giving his students access to these market leaders is a cornerstone of Professor Rinaldi's teaching strategy at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, College Park.
Professor Rinaldi and his friends at Barron’s firmly believe in combining real world experience into formal education. Professor Rinaldi stated, “This Smith/Barron’s opportunity compliments my core philosophy to educate and assist students in beginning their careers in finance and investments. Our friends at Barron’s were kind enough to waive the $1,295.00 registration fee for each of our four students to attend their “Art of Successful Investing Conference.” The event was held on October 22nd at the Metropolitan Club in New York City. It was a one-day, limited-seating event that the premier financial magazine and website publisher described as a one-of-a-kind opportunity "to see and hear from investing luminaries at one place, at one time."
Professor Rinaldi's students participated in roundtable discussions on many key topics including domestic and global economic trends, individual stock picking strategies, U.S. presidential election insights, options strategies and practiced their networking skills. They heard and learned from some of the biggest names in the investment world. The experience they gained was priceless, especially since Barron's will not be making available a broadcast, replay, or repackaging of this information.
Students in Professor Rinaldi’s Futures, Options and Derivatives class (BMGT 444) are typically seniors who are looking ahead to their next stage in life - getting a job after they graduate. They enjoyed advantaged access to many potential employers at the event like Felix Zulauf of Zulauf Asset Management; Dan Fuss, Vice Chairman of Loomis Sayles, Meryl Witmer of Eagle Capital, Pat Neal of Treepoint Capital, as well as other members of the Barron's Roundtable.
The selection of the four students was extremely competitive. The screening process included submission of résumés, GPA scores greater than 3.8/4,0, relevant work experience, and a one-on-one interview. The four students who earned attendance include; Matya Magnezi, Justin Licameli, Alex Blum and Jon Szakelyhidi.
The students co-authored a White Paper (see above) on what they had learned and presented their findings orally during the Market Color segment of Professor Rinaldi's Futures, Options and Derivatives class.
The document provides an economic outlook report from May 2011. It discusses several topics:
1) Strong corporate earnings are driving the stock market higher, though interest rates will likely rise as quantitative easing ends.
2) High food and gas prices pose a risk to consumer spending, which could slow economic growth.
3) The large and growing US national debt poses challenges, as interest payments consume a significant portion of the budget and credit rating downgrades could increase interest rates.
BizBoost is a marketing solution that allows companies to interact with prospects through educational reports even if they are not ready to buy. It gathers their contact information with permission and positions the company as an expert by providing advice. The solution involves sending customized email reports on relevant topics over time to prospects. It also includes a referral program where existing clients are reminded to refer others.
Paramount Web Training Series: Gain Knowledge To Sell More Pools 1paramount
This document provides a summary of research on the U.S. swimming pool market. It finds that maintenance costs and time are the top barriers preventing more people from owning pools. While pool owners are concerned with these issues, prospects see maintenance as an even bigger hassle. The document also finds that many pool owners and prospects are unfamiliar with technologies that can reduce maintenance costs and time, like automatic pool cleaners and controls. It provides recommendations for pool industry professionals to focus their sales presentations on maintenance solutions and educate customers on these pool upgrades.
The document discusses uncertainty in the current economic situation and markets. It notes there is uncertainty in Washington over budget issues, the economy's recovery from recession, the value of the dollar, and the war on terrorism. As financial advisors, the author's firm tries to account for uncertainty by considering best and worst case scenarios and balancing investments. The document also notes that despite weak economic growth, corporate profits are at record levels, but middle-class spending remains stagnant, holding back stronger growth.
The stock market rose sharply in the first quarter of 2011, with the S&P 500 increasing 5.4%. Commodity prices also increased, driven in part by political instability in the Middle East, which caused oil prices to rise over 16% and settle above $100 per barrel. The US dollar continued to weaken against other major currencies during the quarter. Investor fear, as measured by the volatility index, ended the quarter flat despite events that caused spikes in concern during the period. Overall, strong economic growth and expected corporate earnings seemed to outweigh geopolitical and disaster related worries in the markets.
Over the next decade, we believe the profitability
of all West Virginia businesses will be impacted by
entrepreneurial energies abroad that are fueling the creation of a new global middle class. This workshop will help all West Virginia business owners, professionals, and executives — even with no export business or foreign suppliers — understand why future practices to make and manage money right here in West Virginia will need to differ from the practices that have worked in the past.
The document discusses how emerging markets were negatively impacted by changes in US monetary policy in 2013. Specifically, it discusses how the US Federal Reserve's tapering of its quantitative easing program led to capital outflows from emerging markets as foreign investors shifted funds back to the US. This created "taper turbulence" in emerging markets, depreciating their currencies and stock markets. The document analyzes which emerging markets are most vulnerable to further changes in US monetary policy based on factors like foreign capital levels, current account balances, and economic growth trends. South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil are highlighted as being particularly vulnerable.
De los 15 mercados objeto de estudio, sólo Sudáfrica y Turquía muestran debilidad en los tres factores de riesgo.
Cinco mercados, Brasil, Chile, Hungría, México y Polonia, se muestran vulnerables en dos de los tres factores de riesgo.
Ocho mercados, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Israel, Malasia, Rumanía, Rusia y Corea del Sur, muestran salvedades en uno de los tres factores de riesgo.
The document summarizes an investment presentation by Bill Glavin, CEO of OppenheimerFunds. It discusses trends in the global economy and opportunities for investors. Specifically, it notes that US deficits are declining and recent policy actions have stabilized debt levels for the next decade. However, mandatory spending on entitlement programs remains unsustainable long-term given demographic trends. The presentation also highlights growth opportunities in emerging markets as wealth increases across Asia, Latin America, and other regions.
Economies worldwide have rebounded since the 2008
Financial Crisis, along with rising global equity and
tightening credit markets. Even the rebound in earnings
growth and profit margins has been remarkable. Yet, the
U.S. economic growth hasn’t broken out as hoped, after
significant global fiscal and monetary stimulus, including
slashing interest rates. Unemployment remains high and
volatility has been unnerving for investors. Learn more at: www.nafcu.org/nifcus
Could the Emerging Market Slowdown Jeopardize the Global Recovery?QNB Group
The document discusses the potential impact of slowing growth in emerging markets on the global economic recovery. It notes that emerging market growth has sharply declined, affecting global export demand and slowing growth in advanced economies. However, if advanced economies continue their recovery and make up for weaker emerging market demand, the global economy could maintain its momentum. The recovery depends on the normalization of US monetary policy - a gradual recovery in the US would support advanced economies while further slowing emerging markets, leading to a more balanced global recovery.
The document discusses cooperation vs unilateral intervention in international economics. It argues that while countries agree on goals like global growth and rebalancing, individual countries prioritize domestic goals which can lead to policy spillovers and retaliation that result in suboptimal outcomes. Cooperation through forums like the G20 faces challenges due to diverging economic performance among members and lack of enforcement. Regional arrangements and integration can facilitate cooperation where interests converge. Overall, cooperation requires addressing policy spillovers and providing credible incentives and commitments to avoid outcomes where all countries are worse off.
Vietnam's Recent Economic Development 2013Quynh LE
This report provides an update on Vietnam's recent economic developments. It summarizes that global growth is stabilizing at a moderate pace, though recovery in industrial production has been uneven across countries. Financial market conditions have improved due to monetary easing, but capital costs for developing countries are rising as risks in high-income countries recede. Inflation remains benign in most countries, prompting further monetary policy easing. Trade growth has slowed after a cyclical rebound, while most commodity prices have weakened in response to increased supply and substitution.
The document discusses how interest rates have behaved since the financial crisis and makes several predictions:
1) Tapering of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates as investors flee to safety in bonds, increasing bond prices and lowering yields.
2) Previous tapers have weakened the economy, pushing interest rates lower, and ending quantitative easing and zero interest rate policies may end the long but fragile economic expansion.
3) Interest rates will remain low due to disinflationary forces like low wage growth and money hoarding offsetting increases to the money supply.
4) The document predicts the Fed's balance sheet will remain above 2011 levels until 2020 and policy rates will
A euphoric start to 2019!
After a dismal end to last year, global stock markets rebounded in the first quarter making up much of the ground lost in the final quarter of 2018. The underpinnings of this sudden reversal in sentiment are less clear. There appears to be a disconnect between the direction of the stock markets and the direction of the global economies. Economists continue to moderate the outlook for future economic growth. The issues that vexed the markets in 2018 remain and in many cases, those issues have deteriorated even further.
The jobs recovery from the 2007 recession has been painfully slow compared to previous recessions. Over 4 years after employment peaked, only half the jobs lost have been recovered. Possible reasons for the slow recovery include financial crises typically resulting in slow recoveries, policy uncertainty in Washington, extended unemployment benefits, and eurozone crisis uncertainty dampening business demand. However, record corporate profits and cash levels could eventually provide a boost to hiring and the broader economy if companies begin spending more on new hires.
The document summarizes recent economic data and stock market performance. It notes that less than three weeks ago, the economy appeared to be weakening and falling into a new recession, but recent data on auto sales, retail sales, and job growth has been better than expected, helping the stock market rise over 11% in two weeks. However, the author cautions it is too early to say the economy has fully turned around and still has improvements to make before a full recovery.
Republicans and Democrats in Congress are struggling to reach an agreement to raise the federal debt ceiling before an August 2 deadline, which could trigger a default on US debt obligations. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned that a US debt default would cause widespread financial panic and uncertainty, similar to or even worse than the 2008 global financial crisis. While politicians recognize the risks, most analysts believe a last-minute deal will be reached to raise the debt ceiling and avoid default, though it may only provide a temporary solution.
As the third quarter drew to a close, Canada had yet to come to terms with the US and Mexico on a renewed trade agreement. Investors woke up on Monday, October 1, 2018 to news that a deal had in fact been cobbled together at the last minute and that all was well in the world.
Despite a strong start in January, global stock markets became unnerved in the latter part of the first quarter of 2018. Rising trade tensions contributed to the unease investors exhibited as the US took a stronger stance on bilateral trade negotiations through the enactment of targeted tariffs.
Global Corporate Credit Twin Debt Booms Seek US 57 Trillion 2019Jayan Dhru
This document discusses Standard & Poor's assessment of risks to global corporate credit quality over the next five years. It finds that while overall risk is moderate, the two biggest risks are rising defaults in China's corporate debt market, which has grown rapidly, and the surge in leveraged finance in the U.S. driven by low interest rates. The document estimates global companies will seek $57 trillion in debt through 2019, with China accounting for 40% of demand. It also analyzes various economic and financial factors that could influence corporate credit conditions.
Rinaldi's Smith School of Business Students Discuss Key Findings from Recent ...Joseph Rinaldi
Professor Joe Rinaldi has built up valuable relationships during his thirty years of capital markets and asset management experience. Giving his students access to these market leaders is a cornerstone of Professor Rinaldi's teaching strategy at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, College Park.
Professor Rinaldi and his friends at Barron’s firmly believe in combining real world experience into formal education. Professor Rinaldi stated, “This Smith/Barron’s opportunity compliments my core philosophy to educate and assist students in beginning their careers in finance and investments. Our friends at Barron’s were kind enough to waive the $1,295.00 registration fee for each of our four students to attend their “Art of Successful Investing Conference.” The event was held on October 22nd at the Metropolitan Club in New York City. It was a one-day, limited-seating event that the premier financial magazine and website publisher described as a one-of-a-kind opportunity "to see and hear from investing luminaries at one place, at one time."
Professor Rinaldi's students participated in roundtable discussions on many key topics including domestic and global economic trends, individual stock picking strategies, U.S. presidential election insights, options strategies and practiced their networking skills. They heard and learned from some of the biggest names in the investment world. The experience they gained was priceless, especially since Barron's will not be making available a broadcast, replay, or repackaging of this information.
Students in Professor Rinaldi’s Futures, Options and Derivatives class (BMGT 444) are typically seniors who are looking ahead to their next stage in life - getting a job after they graduate. They enjoyed advantaged access to many potential employers at the event like Felix Zulauf of Zulauf Asset Management; Dan Fuss, Vice Chairman of Loomis Sayles, Meryl Witmer of Eagle Capital, Pat Neal of Treepoint Capital, as well as other members of the Barron's Roundtable.
The selection of the four students was extremely competitive. The screening process included submission of résumés, GPA scores greater than 3.8/4,0, relevant work experience, and a one-on-one interview. The four students who earned attendance include; Matya Magnezi, Justin Licameli, Alex Blum and Jon Szakelyhidi.
The students co-authored a White Paper (see above) on what they had learned and presented their findings orally during the Market Color segment of Professor Rinaldi's Futures, Options and Derivatives class.
The document provides an economic outlook report from May 2011. It discusses several topics:
1) Strong corporate earnings are driving the stock market higher, though interest rates will likely rise as quantitative easing ends.
2) High food and gas prices pose a risk to consumer spending, which could slow economic growth.
3) The large and growing US national debt poses challenges, as interest payments consume a significant portion of the budget and credit rating downgrades could increase interest rates.
BizBoost is a marketing solution that allows companies to interact with prospects through educational reports even if they are not ready to buy. It gathers their contact information with permission and positions the company as an expert by providing advice. The solution involves sending customized email reports on relevant topics over time to prospects. It also includes a referral program where existing clients are reminded to refer others.
Paramount Web Training Series: Gain Knowledge To Sell More Pools 1paramount
This document provides a summary of research on the U.S. swimming pool market. It finds that maintenance costs and time are the top barriers preventing more people from owning pools. While pool owners are concerned with these issues, prospects see maintenance as an even bigger hassle. The document also finds that many pool owners and prospects are unfamiliar with technologies that can reduce maintenance costs and time, like automatic pool cleaners and controls. It provides recommendations for pool industry professionals to focus their sales presentations on maintenance solutions and educate customers on these pool upgrades.
PACE - Law Presentation: Employment Law 1011paramount
The document provides an overview of employment law topics and common mistakes made by mid-sized employers. It discusses the top federal employment laws including the FLSA, NLRA, Title VII, ADAAA, and FMLA. Common mistakes identified include employers believing they can handle an ICE inspection alone, not understanding the role of notices from ICE, misunderstanding violations, misclassifying employees as exempt or independent contractors. The consequences of violations are outlined.
Market Forces Impacting the Pool Industry1paramount
The document discusses market forces impacting the pool industry. It provides an overview of research conducted by the APSP Research Program, including nearly 7,000 annual interviews and quantitative market assessments. It also discusses the different income segments represented in the research, including discretionary income of $100K+. The document reviews overall market trends, results for the pool industry, and activations. It analyzes how consumer spending and shopping practices have been impacted by the recession, economic uncertainty, and a focus on savings versus luxury purchases.
This document outlines goals and strategies to help customers choose a business over competitors through an improved online presence. It recommends hiring web developers and an SEO expert to implement changes like adding phone numbers and calls to action throughout the website, minimizing clicks, including customer testimonials and photos, creating Google and Yelp business pages, launching a blog, and saying no to distracting flash and music elements. The benefits would be maintaining the same number of visitors while doubling time on site and pages per visit through an optimized user experience.
PACE - Law Presentation: Estate Planning for a Business Owner1paramount
This document outlines an estate planning presentation discussing basic estate planning goals and documents, revocable trust tips, beneficiary designations, estate and gift taxes, advanced estate planning topics like business succession planning and asset protection. The presentation covers executing powers of attorney and living wills, funding a revocable trust to avoid probate, ensuring proper beneficiary designations, understanding current estate and gift tax laws, and advanced techniques to minimize taxes and successfully transition a business to heirs.
PACE - Building a Profitable Service Business1paramount
The document outlines the anatomy of a successful pool service company. It discusses the importance of planning, accounting, controls, and execution. Specifically, it emphasizes mapping out service motivations and client profiles, setting budgets and pricing, establishing service agreements and employee training, and putting plans into action through consistent marketing, evaluation, and adjustment. The overall goal is to help business owners focus on profitability while enjoying family.
The document describes several wireless audio products from SoundCast Systems:
1) iCast allows wireless streaming of audio from an iPod to multiple rooms up to 350 feet away.
2) OutCast is an outdoor speaker system that operates for over 10 hours on a rechargeable battery and streams audio wirelessly from an iPod up to 350 feet.
3) Awards and reviews praise SoundCast products for their simple setup, long battery life, clear sound quality, and ability to stream audio interference-free to remote locations.
(ATS6-APP09) ELN configuration management with ADMBIOVIA
(ATS6-APP09) ELN configuration management with ADM
Starting with AELN 6.7, Accelrys ELN administrators have complete control over the timing and distribution of software updates to clients using Accelrys Deployment Manager (ADM). This session provides a quick overview, then dives deep into the technical aspects of ADM. Attendees will leave with a better understanding of how to use ADM to lower the costs associated with managing client updates.
The Crusades were a series of religious wars initiated in 1096 by European Christians in response to Muslim control of the Holy Land. The First Crusade succeeded in capturing Jerusalem in 1099, establishing the Kingdom of Jerusalem. However, Muslim leaders like Nuruddin and Saladin fought to recapture lands. Saladin defeated the Crusaders at the Battle of Hattin in 1187 and recaptured Jerusalem. This led to the Third Crusade which failed to retake Jerusalem. While the Crusades involved many campaigns over two centuries, they ultimately failed to permanently occupy the Holy Land and Jerusalem returned to Muslim control by 1246.
The document discusses the Crusades between Christians and Muslims over control of the Holy Land between the 11th and 13th centuries. It describes some of the causes of the Crusades, including reports of Muslim attacks on Christian pilgrims and shrines, as well as increasing intolerance between the religions. The Crusades resulted in both short term effects like temporary Christian gains in territory and long term effects such as the weakening of the papacy, rise of strong centralized nations and kings, and lasting inter-religious hatred and intolerance.
The document discusses the Crusades, a series of religious wars called by the Pope in the 11th-13th centuries to recapture the Holy Land of Jerusalem from Muslim rule. It provides background on the causes of the Crusades including Pope Urban II's call in 1096, outlines the history of the major Crusades from 1096-1192, and discusses the consequences on mindsets and the formation of Western civilization as well as continued use of the term "Crusade" in modern times. The conclusion encourages learning from the past.
Berdasarkan dokumen tersebut, ringkasan singkatnya adalah:
1. Makalah ini membahas tentang Perang Salib yang disusun untuk memenuhi tugas mata kuliah Sejarah Peradaban Islam.
2. Perang Salib terjadi akibat berbagai faktor agama, politik, dan sosial ekonomi seperti ketidaksukaan umat Kristen terhadap Islam, permintaan bantuan Kaisar Bizantium kepada Paus, serta kondisi sosial ekonomi masyar
Joe Azelby, Managing Director of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, discusses the benefits of diversifying institutional investor portfolios beyond traditional stocks and bonds into real assets. He notes that most investors currently have over 85% of their assets in stocks and bonds, but with low investment yields, a more diversified portfolio including real estate, infrastructure, and other real assets could provide higher yields than bonds and equities while offering lower volatility than stocks. Azelby advocates for building real asset portfolios around a core of developed market real estate and infrastructure, and complementing it with value-add real estate, yield-oriented assets like maritime, and global diversifiers such as emerging market real assets.
This document discusses challenges to retirement planning, including changes from pensions to 401(k)s, more retirees working, rising costs of living and healthcare, and uncertainty around Social Security. It then provides an example retirement planning calculation showing the need to save over $1 million. Finally, it emphasizes developing a retirement strategy in consultation with a financial professional to address challenges through diversification, asset allocation, and insurance products.
The document discusses Washington's unfinished fiscal and monetary policy business beyond 2015. On fiscal policy, the federal budget deficit has declined but challenges remain, including the need for tax reform to make the US more competitive. The US has the highest corporate tax rate which puts companies at a disadvantage. While plans exist to lower the rate, offsets must be found. On monetary policy, the Federal Reserve must determine how to normalize interest rates after years of quantitative easing. Changes to both fiscal and monetary policies will likely evolve slowly in the coming years.
- The FOMC raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected but markets reacted negatively to the Fed's projections of faster tightening in 2017. Bond yields and the US dollar rose while stocks fell slightly.
- The Fed forecasts three 0.25% rate hikes in 2017, up from two previously predicted, and sees longer-run rates higher. However, Chair Yellen stressed gradual rate increases.
- Citi analysts maintain their view that fiscal stimulus effects will be later rather than sooner, and higher rates and a strong dollar may slow the economy, delaying further hikes in 2017. They keep a neutral outlook on US stocks and prefer high yield bonds.
Stop Wasting Your Money & Start Having a Better Investment ExperienceAndreas Scott, CFP®
This document provides a summary of strategies for pursuing a better investment experience. It recommends embracing market pricing, not trying to outguess the market by stock picking, resisting chasing past performance, letting markets work for long-term investors, considering dimensions of expected returns like value and size, practicing smart diversification globally, avoiding market timing, managing emotions during market cycles, looking beyond headlines, and focusing on what can be controlled like working with a financial advisor.
Concepts that inform a market-based investment approach, grouped in four categories: Market Equilibrium, Diversification, Dimensions of Returns, and Investor Discipline.
Tag Young Professionals - Merrill Lynch PresentationMelanie Brandt
The document provides an overview of strategies for achieving a healthy financial life, including budgeting, investing, retirement savings, and financing a home. It discusses developing a budget and paying down high-interest debt. It also covers topics like buying vs renting a home, creating an investment portfolio based on goals and risk tolerance, saving for retirement through vehicles like 401ks and IRAs, and tips for young investors like starting to save early.
Wealth advisors LLC pursues a better investment experience for its clients by embracing principles of prudent diversification and avoiding behaviors that often undermine returns, such as market timing, chasing past performance, and overreacting to short-term market movements. The firm recommends low-cost, globally diversified portfolios and advises clients to focus on what they can control - their investment plan, taxes, and expenses - rather than trying to outguess unpredictable markets. By following these disciplined strategies, the firm aims to help clients achieve superior long-term returns.
This document provides an outlook and forecasts for the US and global economies and markets for 2021 from LPL Financial. It discusses expectations that the new economic expansion may continue for years, earnings are poised for a sharp rebound in 2021-2022 which may fuel solid stock market gains, and Treasury yields are expected to rise over the next year. The outlook presents LPL Financial's views that the recovery remains uneven but global growth should rebound as the COVID threat diminishes.
Outlook 2021 for Elements Wealth ManagementJake Engel
This document provides an outlook and forecasts for the US and global economies and markets for 2021 from LPL Financial. It discusses expectations that the new economic expansion may continue for years, earnings are poised for a sharp rebound in 2021-2022 which may fuel solid stock market gains, and Treasury yields are projected to rise over the next year. The outlook presents LPL Financial's views that the recovery remains uneven but global growth should rebound as the COVID threat diminishes.
11 eaton vance volatility - the black widow returns123jumpad
Richard Bernstein warns that investors are again ignoring the risks of income investing strategies during a period of global credit deflation. He notes that high-yielding assets like MLPs, REITs, and emerging market debt have historically underperformed and faced higher risks during credit downturns. However, many investors continue to view them as "safe" or "opportunistic" despite abnormally high yields often indicating hidden risks. Bernstein argues sustainability of dividends and cash flows is more important than yield alone during the ongoing deflation of the global credit bubble. His portfolios focus on fundamentals suggesting continued dividend payments rather than stretching for income.
Presentation on summer training project at hsbc investNavneet Malhi
The document summarizes a presentation on the effects of the recent global financial crisis on investment patterns of investors in Ludhiana, India. It finds that most investors' financial position remained the same or improved, and that the preferred long-term investment was savings accounts. The preferred sector was services, though some sectors like real estate were negatively impacted by the crisis. Overall, investors remained optimistic about the growth of the US and Indian economies going forward.
The document provides a mid-year 2014 market summary and outlook. It reviews market performance in the first half of the year, noting gains in stocks and bonds. It discusses weak economic growth in Q1 and experts wrongly predicting rising interest rates. Areas of focus for the second half include inflation, central bank actions, geopolitical tensions, corporate cash usage, and elections.
The document provides an overview of recent market perspectives and concerns for November 2018. It notes that while markets have dipped recently, the overall economic environment remains strong with GDP and earnings growth steady. However, investors are weighing concerns around the pace of interest rate hikes, global trade tensions, and the ability of companies to sustain high earnings growth. The document concludes that the investment environment remains modestly favorable, but market participants are closely monitoring conditions.
J.T. Mullen is the Chief Investment Strategist at Fairport Asset Management, bringing over 30 years of experience. Previously, he was the Chief Financial Officer at The Cleveland Foundation for 23 years, growing their endowment from $400 million to $1.8 billion. John Silvis is the Director of Investments at Fairport and has over 15 years of experience. Richard D'Amico is the Manager of Investments and oversees fixed income and alternative investments. The presentation provides an economic and market outlook for 2012 and discusses Fairport's investment philosophy and process.
December 13 quarterly: Is this too good to be true?Mark_Krygier
- The newsletter summarizes recent market performance and provides an outlook. It notes that historically markets have performed better from November to April.
- While some sectors seem overextended, fundamentals suggest markets may remain positive. The US central bank leadership is changing but no policy changes are expected.
- Bonds still have a place in portfolios due to providing insurance against volatility and securing capital, despite concerns around rising rates.
- The portfolio manager recently experienced a family loss and thanks clients who have referred new business.
A review of Q4 2015 corporate earnings reveals a significant slowdown in revenue and earnings growth. While these developments have been affected by the sharp decline in commodity prices,they may reveal early signs of recessionary conditions.
The document provides a weekly economic update and commentary from Joe Morgan. It includes:
1) Joe Morgan will be taking a break next week to experiment with human solar power in Mexico.
2) The "fiscal cliff" could weaken the economy in 2013 if policies are not changed, as taxes would increase and spending would decrease automatically.
3) Key stock market indices showed modest gains over the past week, while Treasury rates remained unchanged.
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
Inbound and content marketing made easy ebook wc (2)1paramount
This document summarizes the author's experience with inbound marketing over 800 days. It begins with the author's swimming pool business struggling greatly in 2005 due to embezzlement and IRS liens. By 2008, the struggling economy further imperiled the business. In March 2009, the author discovered inbound marketing through HubSpot and began blogging to answer consumer questions, hoping Google would reward the business with more visits. Over the next 800 days of embracing inbound marketing, the author was able to turn the business around, gaining more customers and profits than ever before through the power of content marketing.
The document provides an overview of the 14th Annual PACE Meeting. It includes:
1) A welcome message from Buzz Ghiz, President of PACE.
2) A brief history of PACE, noting it started in 1999 with 21 companies and has grown to include tools and resources to help pool builders.
3) Sections recognizing founding members, returning members, new members, international members, charter vendor partners, returning vendor partners, new vendor partners, and invited guests of the meeting.
4) An agenda that lists speakers on topics like the economy, content marketing, websites, and going mobile. It also includes breaks, meals, and a closing reception.
3) The document serves
This document summarizes a presentation about a marketing solution called BizBoost. BizBoost provides pool builders with customized free educational reports, follow-up emails, and a web form to automatically market to potential buyers and build relationships. It works 24/7 to stimulate referrals and allows pool builders to view and download leads. The presentation encourages pool builders to take BizBoost for a test drive.
The document provides information about BBVA Compass, including:
1) It discusses the causes of the mortgage crisis and credit crunch, tracing it back to legislative changes in the 1970s that loosened mortgage requirements.
2) It provides an overview of BBVA Compass, noting it has over $65 billion in assets and 717 branches across the Sunbelt region.
3) It highlights BBVA Compass' strong capital and liquidity positions and conservative lending practices that position it well in the current economy.
PACE - Get in the Game with Social Media1paramount
The document discusses how businesses can use social media and internet marketing. It provides an overview of popular social media platforms like Facebook, LinkedIn, YouTube, and Twitter. It then discusses how businesses can prepare by assessing their current marketing, optimizing their website, developing content, and building an audience on social media. Case studies are presented of businesses that have successfully used these strategies. The key message is that social media requires an ongoing commitment to build relationships and engage customers across multiple online channels.
New age of risk for contractors slide presentation1paramount
The document discusses trends in fraud, including that fraud occurrences have increased since the 2008 economic crisis. Theft of company property and embezzlement have seen the greatest increases. Most frauds are uncovered by tips, management review, or internal audit. For construction companies specifically, the most common fraud schemes are corruption, billing, check tampering, skimming, and expense reimbursements, with the median fraud loss being $200,000. The document also outlines the fraud triangle of opportunity, pressure, and rationalization as factors that can contribute to fraud. It provides recommendations for fraud prevention, including eliminating opportunity through strong internal controls and increasing the perception of detection.
This document discusses strategies for restructuring a company to minimize business risks through establishing corporate firewalls. It outlines forming a new holding company structure with separate operating subsidiaries to protect different classes of assets. The three-step process involves preliminary planning, completing the reorganization, and ongoing adherence to corporate formalities. Maintaining independent operations and adequate capitalization/insurance for each entity helps preserve limited liability between companies.
The document introduces new and redesigned calculators on Pentair's website to help users learn more about pool and spa products. It provides statistics on Pentair's website performance and social media highlights. It also describes how dealers can benefit from Pentair's Innovation Lab by tapping into customer insights and strengthening their business.
The document discusses a product called BizBoost that helps pool builders generate more leads and customers. It does this through providing educational content to prospects through customized email reports. This establishes the builder as an expert, nurtures leads over time, and increases referrals through an automated referral program. BizBoost is an affordable and customizable lead generation and customer retention solution for pool builders.
Paramount Capital offers multiple financing options for backyard pools and spas, including unsecured loans for customers with good credit and secured loans that use the home as collateral. They have programs in many states and work to streamline the application process and guide customers to the best available lending program.
Philippine Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) CurriculumMJDuyan
(𝐓𝐋𝐄 𝟏𝟎𝟎) (𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝟏)-𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐬
𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐏𝐏 𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐮𝐦 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬:
- Understand the goals and objectives of the Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) curriculum, recognizing its importance in fostering practical life skills and values among students. Students will also be able to identify the key components and subjects covered, such as agriculture, home economics, industrial arts, and information and communication technology.
𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐜𝐨𝐩𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧 𝐄𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐮𝐫:
-Define entrepreneurship, distinguishing it from general business activities by emphasizing its focus on innovation, risk-taking, and value creation. Students will describe the characteristics and traits of successful entrepreneurs, including their roles and responsibilities, and discuss the broader economic and social impacts of entrepreneurial activities on both local and global scales.
Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...PsychoTech Services
A proprietary approach developed by bringing together the best of learning theories from Psychology, design principles from the world of visualization, and pedagogical methods from over a decade of training experience, that enables you to: Learn better, faster!
Chapter wise All Notes of First year Basic Civil Engineering.pptxDenish Jangid
Chapter wise All Notes of First year Basic Civil Engineering
Syllabus
Chapter-1
Introduction to objective, scope and outcome the subject
Chapter 2
Introduction: Scope and Specialization of Civil Engineering, Role of civil Engineer in Society, Impact of infrastructural development on economy of country.
Chapter 3
Surveying: Object Principles & Types of Surveying; Site Plans, Plans & Maps; Scales & Unit of different Measurements.
Linear Measurements: Instruments used. Linear Measurement by Tape, Ranging out Survey Lines and overcoming Obstructions; Measurements on sloping ground; Tape corrections, conventional symbols. Angular Measurements: Instruments used; Introduction to Compass Surveying, Bearings and Longitude & Latitude of a Line, Introduction to total station.
Levelling: Instrument used Object of levelling, Methods of levelling in brief, and Contour maps.
Chapter 4
Buildings: Selection of site for Buildings, Layout of Building Plan, Types of buildings, Plinth area, carpet area, floor space index, Introduction to building byelaws, concept of sun light & ventilation. Components of Buildings & their functions, Basic concept of R.C.C., Introduction to types of foundation
Chapter 5
Transportation: Introduction to Transportation Engineering; Traffic and Road Safety: Types and Characteristics of Various Modes of Transportation; Various Road Traffic Signs, Causes of Accidents and Road Safety Measures.
Chapter 6
Environmental Engineering: Environmental Pollution, Environmental Acts and Regulations, Functional Concepts of Ecology, Basics of Species, Biodiversity, Ecosystem, Hydrological Cycle; Chemical Cycles: Carbon, Nitrogen & Phosphorus; Energy Flow in Ecosystems.
Water Pollution: Water Quality standards, Introduction to Treatment & Disposal of Waste Water. Reuse and Saving of Water, Rain Water Harvesting. Solid Waste Management: Classification of Solid Waste, Collection, Transportation and Disposal of Solid. Recycling of Solid Waste: Energy Recovery, Sanitary Landfill, On-Site Sanitation. Air & Noise Pollution: Primary and Secondary air pollutants, Harmful effects of Air Pollution, Control of Air Pollution. . Noise Pollution Harmful Effects of noise pollution, control of noise pollution, Global warming & Climate Change, Ozone depletion, Greenhouse effect
Text Books:
1. Palancharmy, Basic Civil Engineering, McGraw Hill publishers.
2. Satheesh Gopi, Basic Civil Engineering, Pearson Publishers.
3. Ketki Rangwala Dalal, Essentials of Civil Engineering, Charotar Publishing House.
4. BCP, Surveying volume 1
Beyond Degrees - Empowering the Workforce in the Context of Skills-First.pptxEduSkills OECD
Iván Bornacelly, Policy Analyst at the OECD Centre for Skills, OECD, presents at the webinar 'Tackling job market gaps with a skills-first approach' on 12 June 2024
Elevate Your Nonprofit's Online Presence_ A Guide to Effective SEO Strategies...TechSoup
Whether you're new to SEO or looking to refine your existing strategies, this webinar will provide you with actionable insights and practical tips to elevate your nonprofit's online presence.
Temple of Asclepius in Thrace. Excavation resultsKrassimira Luka
The temple and the sanctuary around were dedicated to Asklepios Zmidrenus. This name has been known since 1875 when an inscription dedicated to him was discovered in Rome. The inscription is dated in 227 AD and was left by soldiers originating from the city of Philippopolis (modern Plovdiv).
How Barcodes Can Be Leveraged Within Odoo 17Celine George
In this presentation, we will explore how barcodes can be leveraged within Odoo 17 to streamline our manufacturing processes. We will cover the configuration steps, how to utilize barcodes in different manufacturing scenarios, and the overall benefits of implementing this technology.
3. Macroeconomic themes 2013 and beyond: normalcy returns
•
Slowly, return to the Fundamentals
•
Global growth will be slow, but steady
•
Central Banks around the world continue easing but becoming wary of excesses
•
Inflation risks remain subdued for now
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
3
4. Global growth likely modest in 2013 reaccelerating in 2014; eurozone
still pressured but emerging markets to rebound …
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research and ML GWM Investment Management & Guidance. Data as of September 10, 2013.
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
4
5. Global manufacturing PMIs have started to rebound, led by developed
markets; trend looks set to continue in 2H 2013…
Source: Markit, Haver Analytics, BofA ML Global Research and ML Investment Management & Guidance. Data as of Aug-2013.
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
5
6. Central bank liquidity remains accommodative for now …
The
financial
crisis
hits
Source: Bloomberg and Merrill Lynch IMG. Data as of 1/31/2013.
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
6
7. Peaking of The Liquidity Era Means Volatility and Opportunities
Implications
Policy
US
QE tapering will be slow
and gradual
JAPAN
Very accommodative
monetary policy
• Higher interest rates
• Higher volatility in rates
and equity markets
• US dollar bullish
CHINA
Reforms for a higher
quality growth
• Risk of a policy mistake
EUROPE
Vigilant with „unlimited‟
bond buying program
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
7
8. Global CPI Inflation will remain low at a global level
Global CPI inflation has eased this year (%yoy)
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Haver Analytics
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
8
9. U.S. housing recovery is significant because of multiplier effects …
Home prices have appreciated but are starting to moderate a bit
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research – “A speed bump” by Michelle Meyer 8/19/2013, Core Logic
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
9
10. U.S. housing recovery is significant because of multiplier effects …
Housing starts and new home sales recovery are still in the early innings
(thousands of homes)
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research – “A speed bump” by Michelle Meyer 8/19/2013, Census Bureau
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
10
11. Household formation and consumer confidence is critical …
Retail Sales Stabilize (YoY%) Despite Higher Payroll Taxes
Employment-to-population ratio for 2435 year olds
Motor vehicle sales improving
Source: (Top left) Bureau of Labor Statistics, BofA Merrill Lynch Global
Research – “A speed bump” by Michelle Meyer 8/19/2013. (Top Right)
Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, IMG. (Bottom Right) Autodata, Haver
Analytics, IMG
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
11
12. US energy independence is a transformative theme …
Advancement in technology has boosted US energy production over the past 5 years
TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENT BOOSTS US PROVED RESERVES
Oil (billion barrels)
33
31
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
15
Natural gas (trillion cubic feet)
United States
Brazil
Canada
Biofuels
Columbia
India
Russia
UK
Norway
Mexico
350
300
250
200
150
100
1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
-1,000
2010
US OIL SUPPLIES FORECASTED TO RISE ~15% BY 2016…
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
ENERGY COSTS AS % OF TOTAL OPERATING COSTS (2010)
24.0
…While U.S. demand is expected
to decline by 3%
23.0
8.0
22.0
7.0
21.0
6.0
20.0
5.0
19.0
4.0
Demand (billions of barrels)
Supply (billions of Barrels)
10.0
9.0
US TO SUPPLY A LARGE PORTION OF NON-OPEC SUPPLY
GROWTH BETWEEN 2011-2016
18.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total US Oil Supplies
Total US Oil Demand
Source: BofA-ML Global Research, IMG. As of Jan. 2013.
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
12
13. Corporate balance sheets hold the key: pent up demand is significant
While US GDP growth remains tepid, US corporate profits have soared leading companies to build cash on their balance sheets
CAPEX SPENDING HAS NOT KEPT PACE
CORPORATE PROFITS SOAR
30%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
20%
10%
0%
Average
-10%
-20%
-30%
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Recession
-40%
Dec-93 Dec-95 Dec-97 Dec-99 Dec-01 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11
New Orders: Non-defense capital goods ex. Aircraft, YoY%
Corporate Profits as % of GDP
Average
USE OF CASH: SHARE BUYBACKS AND DIVIDENDS
AMONG S&P 500 COMPANIES
M&A ACTIVITY LOWEST SINCE 2002
$180
$160
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
$900
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
$31
$29
$27
$25
$23
$21
$19
$17
$15
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012
Share Buybacks (in $billions, LHS)
M&A Transactions (in $bilions)
Dividends per Share (12 Months, RHS)
Source: BofA-ML Global Research, IMG. As of Jan. 2013.
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
13
14. EM-driven global GDP growth continues to outpace developed markets…
120
7
6
100
Percent (%)
4
60
3
40
GDP Growth %
5
80
2
20
1
0
0
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
Gross Debt to GDP: Advanced economies
Gross Debt to GDP: Emerging market and developing economies
GDP Growth: Advanced economies (RHS)
GDP Growth: Emerging market and developing economies (RHS)
Source: IMF, BofA ML Global Research and ML GWM Investment Management & Guidance. October 2012.
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
14
15. A rising middle class in China will continue to drive consumption growth
Middle class (household income RMB25-100k/year) increased from 55% to 77% of the population from 2005 to 2010
2005
2010
Consumption will be backed by fast rate of wealth accumulation
%
16
Lower income group declined
14
Higher income group sharply rose
12
10
8
6
4
2
>100,000
95,000-100,000
90,000-95,000
85,000-90,000
80,000-85,000
75,000-80,000
70,000-75,000
65,000-70,000
60,000-65,000
55,000-60,000
50,000-55,000
45,000-50,000
40,000-45,000
35,000-40,000
30,000-35,000
25,000-30,000
20,000-25,000
15,000-20,000
10,000-15,000
<10,000
0
China urban household annual income (RMB)
%
2005
2010
16
Source: CEIC. September 2012.
14
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
12
15
16. Geopolitics a key part of the investment landscape – U.S. fiscal
policy next up for markets to digest
Source: BofA ML Global Research and ML Investment Management & Guidance.
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
16
17. However our fiscal situation has improved …
Source: Strategas Research Partners.
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
17
18. Despite political gridlock in Washington, consumers show resilience
Source: University of Michigan, www.policyuncertainty.com, Haver Analytics, IMG. Policy Uncertainty Index measures policy-related economic uncertainty
constructed from three types of underlying components: newspaper coverage of policy-related economic uncertainty, number of federal tax code provisions set to
expire in future years, and disagreement among economic forecasters as a proxy for uncertainty using the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia‟s Survey of
Professional Forecasters. For more information on the index methodology, please visit www.policyuncertainty.com.
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
18
19. Key investment themes …
Over the next 2-3 years, Equities do better than Bonds
Diversify Equity Holdings
Equities for growth: overweight cyclicals
Don‟t write off Small Caps
European equities compelling valuation
Japanese equities for a tactical trade
Change approach to EMs: overweight domestically focused names, go beyond BRICs
Bonds for income and protection and actively position for rising rates
Refocus liquidity budget:
Refocus hedge fund portfolios to strategies that are less correlated with markets
Spend more of liquidity budget on Private Equity
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
19
20. US Equities remain a compelling asset class …
Plenty of cash on corporate balance sheets
(as a % of total assets of S&P 500 co.
S&P 500 EPS forecasted to grow
Source: BofaML Global Research. FactSet and ML Investment Management & Guidance. Data as of June 28, 2013.
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
20
21. Investor Flows into equities have only just begun to reverse…
Source: BofA ML Global Research, EPFR, IMG. Data as of August 2013.
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
21
22. Rotate from expensive Defensives to cheap Cyclicals
Cyclicals are leading equities higher
Sector’s sensitivity to US GDP Growth
Source: BofA ML Global Research, IMG.
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
22
23. European equities offer long term growth potential
European equities price to book valuation exceptionally cheap compared to the U.S.
Source: ML Investment Management & Guidance.; BofA ML Global Equity Research
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
23
24. Emerging Markets: go beyond the BRICs …
Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) 2013
GDP expectations persistently downgraded
BRIC markets have lagged smaller non –
BRICs since 2008
As of June 26, 2013
As of May 31, 2013
Source: FactSet. Bloomberg, IMG.
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
24
25. Government bond yields have been driven down …
Yields for 10 Yr Bonds for US, UK, Japan, Germany (1990 to 9/20/2013)
US: 2.72%
UK: 2.92%
Japan: 0.695%
Germany: 1.94%
*Source: Bloomberg, Investment Management & Guidance
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
25
26. When Stocks Fell Sharply, Bonds Were Up …
U.S. Stocks
U.S. Bonds
Jan 77–Feb 78
(9.7%)
5.1%
Dec 80–Jul 82
(14.2%)
17.8%
Sep 87–Nov 87
(27.9%)
4.7%
Jun 90–Oct 90
(14.1%)
2.4%
May 98–Aug 98
(11.9%)
2.7%
Mar 00–Dec 02
(39.0%)
30.6%
Sep 07-Dec 08
(39.1%)
9.5%
Average
(22.3)%
10.4%
Source: Lipper, Inc., Bloomberg, BlackRock. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The information shown is for illustrative
purposes only and is not meant to represent the performance of any particular investment. Returns reflect total cumulative return for the time periods specified. Time periods span the first day
of the initial month through the last day of the final month. U.S. stocks are represented by the S&P 500 ® Index. U.S. bonds are represented by the Merrill Lynch U.S. Corporate & Government
Master Index. S&P 500 is a registered trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies. See glossary for index definitions.
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26
27. Potential benefits of a diversified Fixed Income portfolio
Source: IMG.
*As of May 31, 2013; BofA ML Bond Indexes used to represent the various sectors of the Bond Market
**Assuming a parallel shift in the yield curve. Note that changes in price return are approximate based on the investment‟s duration.
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27
28. Portfolios benefit from diversification across a broader range of assets
6 Asset Mix
Stocks
Bonds
Cash
Hedge Funds
Private Equity
Real Assets
For illustrative purposes only. Source: ML GWM Investment Management & Guidance .
Asset allocation and diversification does not protect against losses in a declining market. Efficient frontier is based on ML capital market assumptions (CMA). See appendix for more details.
Geo. Avg. Return (Annl.) is the geometric average of the portfolio models annualized returns. Conditional-Drawdown-At-Risk (CDAR) is the average of the worst (1-x)% of monthly drawdowns
over the given time period; for example, CDaR(80) is the average of the worst 20% (or bottom quintile) of monthly drawdowns. The "efficient frontier" tracks the relationship of rate of return
and performance volatility (as measured by standard deviation). While performance volatility is one widely-accepted indicator of risk in traditional investment strategies, in the case of
alternative investment strategies, performance volatility is an indicator of only one dimension of the risk to which these actively-managed, skill-based strategies are subject. There is a "risk of
ruin" in these strategies that has historically had a material effect on long-term performance but which is not reflected in performance volatility. From time to time, extremely low volatility
alternative investments have incurred sudden and material losses. Consequently, any comparison of the "efficient frontiers" of traditional and alternative investments is inherently limited.
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28
29. Hedge Funds: Refocus hedge fund allocation; add to strategies that are
less correlated with equity markets
0%
Historical Drawdown (%)
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
S&P 500 Total Return
DJ Credit Suisse Hedge Fund
DJ Credit Suisse Global Macro
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
60-40 MSCI AC World-BarCap Global Agg (TR)
DJ Credit Suisse Managed Futures
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sources: Centralized Investment Analytics and ML GWM Investment Management & Guidance. As of
September 2012.
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29
30. Appendix: Important Information
This document is provided for information only and is not intended as a solicitation for any particular investment. It does not have regard to the specific
investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any client and does not represent investment advice or a personal recommendation to any person.
Exchange rate fluctuations may adversely affect the value of and income from investments. The value of investments and their income can go down as well as up
and could rise or fall dramatically. Investors may not get back the full amount invested.
Past performance should not be seen as an indication of future performance and no projection, representation or warranty is made regarding future
performance.
Information included herein was obtained from sources we believe are reliable, but we have not verified and cannot ensure its accuracy. This document is only
for your use and must not be given or shown to anyone else without our consent. Some of the products and services referred to in this presentation may not be
suitable for all investors. Investors with any questions regarding the suitability of any of the products or services referenced in this presentation should consult
their financial advisor. Some products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all clients.
Definitions:
Volatility: Measured by standard deviation, volatility is the amount that returns devotion from their mean.
Sharpe Ratio: Measure of an investment‟s risk-return tradeoff, calculated by subtracting the risk-free rate from the rate of return of the investment and dividing the
result by the standard deviation returns.
Capital Market Assumptions:
Merrill Lynch Capital Market Assumptions (return, volatility and correlation) include the following assets: Equity, Fixed Income, Cash, Hedge Funds, Private
Equity and Real Assets. The assumptions continue to reflect conservative outlook that future market returns are more likely to be lower than their historical
averages.
Index proxies for asset classes are as follows: Equities, S&P 500 Total Return; Fixed Income, 60% Ibbotson‟s US Long Term Government Bond Index and 40%
Ibbotson‟s US Long Term Corporate Bond Index; Cash, Ibbotson's 30-Day T-Bill Total Return Index; Hedge Funds, CS Tremont Hedge Fund Total Return Index;
Private Equity, 50% Thomson US All Private Equity; 50% Thomson Europe All Private Equity; Real Assets: (3/1997 to 12/2009): 55% FTSE-NAREIT Global Total
Return Index; 35% DJ UBS Commodity Total Return Index; 10% ML US Treasury Inflation-Linked Total Return Index.; (1/2010 to 12/2010): 46% FTSE-NAREIT
Global Total Return Index; 36% DJ AIG Commodity Total Return Index; 18% ML US Treasury Inflation-Linked Total Return Index. See additional appendix pages
for index definitions.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index.
As part of our ongoing process, we consider the current market environment, industry and competitive outlooks, and historical data. We review these
assumptions periodically and make adjustments as appropriate.
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30
Editor's Notes
Economic conditions around the world are also improving. BofA-ML’s Economic Conditions Index (ECI), a broad measure of business conditions around the world, has been trending up steadily and uniformly across regions. The world economy, outside of the U.S., is expected to grow around 4% annually between now and 2014. Stress in financial markets is now at the lowest levels since 2007.Europe slipped back into recession in 2012, with the peripheral countries suffering the worst losses in jobs and declines in living standards. The continent is expected to experience a tepid recovery in 2013.However, more positively, investors’ worst case fears-the break of the euro-did not materialize. Spreads on Greek govt bonds have dropped markedly. With the probability of a tail risk event receding, volatility in European equity markets fell to multi-year lows and was the impetus for the risk-off rally around the world.Bond spreads on other troubled countries, such as Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy have all fallen sharply after credible steps were taken by the ECB and Europe’s leaders in 2H 2012.Despite the recent rebound in European stocks, valuations remain attractive.
Economic conditions around the world are also improving. BofA-ML’s Economic Conditions Index (ECI), a broad measure of business conditions around the world, has been trending up steadily and uniformly across regions. The world economy, outside of the U.S., is expected to grow around 4% annually between now and 2014. Stress in financial markets is now at the lowest levels since 2007.Europe slipped back into recession in 2012, with the peripheral countries suffering the worst losses in jobs and declines in living standards. The continent is expected to experience a tepid recovery in 2013.However, more positively, investors’ worst case fears-the break of the euro-did not materialize. Spreads on Greek govt bonds have dropped markedly. With the probability of a tail risk event receding, volatility in European equity markets fell to multi-year lows and was the impetus for the risk-off rally around the world.Bond spreads on other troubled countries, such as Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy have all fallen sharply after credible steps were taken by the ECB and Europe’s leaders in 2H 2012.Despite the recent rebound in European stocks, valuations remain attractive.
Various housing fundamentals such as household formation, home prices, housing starts, housing inventory, etc. point to an improvement in the sector. Existing home sales increased 5.9% in November from the previous month, representing an annual rate of 5 million units. Home prices are projected to increase 5% year over year in 2012 compared to 3.7% decline in 2011. Residential homebuilding is expected to contribute 0.3 percentage point to US GDP growth in 2012 and 0.4 percentage points in 2013. Housing was at the center of the recent global financial crisis. It may now hold the key to a sustainable U.S. recovery.Housing sales are on the rise across the country and in most markets home values are increasing.Residential homebuilding is forecasted to add 0.4% to GDP growth in 2013. The first positive contribution since 2005.Homebuilding helps create jobs. Each new home built help create three new full-time jobs (source: NAHB). Improvements in the housing sector is expected to benefit not just the real estate sector, but also materials, financials, consumer discretionary sectors.
Various housing fundamentals such as household formation, home prices, housing starts, housing inventory, etc. point to an improvement in the sector. Existing home sales increased 5.9% in November from the previous month, representing an annual rate of 5 million units. Home prices are projected to increase 5% year over year in 2012 compared to 3.7% decline in 2011. Residential homebuilding is expected to contribute 0.3 percentage point to US GDP growth in 2012 and 0.4 percentage points in 2013. Housing was at the center of the recent global financial crisis. It may now hold the key to a sustainable U.S. recovery.Housing sales are on the rise across the country and in most markets home values are increasing.Residential homebuilding is forecasted to add 0.4% to GDP growth in 2013. The first positive contribution since 2005.Homebuilding helps create jobs. Each new home built help create three new full-time jobs (source: NAHB). Improvements in the housing sector is expected to benefit not just the real estate sector, but also materials, financials, consumer discretionary sectors.
Various housing fundamentals such as household formation, home prices, housing starts, housing inventory, etc. point to an improvement in the sector. Existing home sales increased 5.9% in November from the previous month, representing an annual rate of 5 million units. Home prices are projected to increase 5% year over year in 2012 compared to 3.7% decline in 2011. Residential homebuilding is expected to contribute 0.3 percentage point to US GDP growth in 2012 and 0.4 percentage points in 2013. Housing was at the center of the recent global financial crisis. It may now hold the key to a sustainable U.S. recovery.Housing sales are on the rise across the country and in most markets home values are increasing.Residential homebuilding is forecasted to add 0.4% to GDP growth in 2013. The first positive contribution since 2005.Homebuilding helps create jobs. Each new home built help create three new full-time jobs (source: NAHB). Improvements in the housing sector is expected to benefit not just the real estate sector, but also materials, financials, consumer discretionary sectors.
Advancement in technology has boosted US energy production over the past 5 years. US is on track to supply a large portion of Non-OPEC supply growth in the near future. Harnessing these reserves gives the US a significant competitive advantage that will grow in year to come, with Commodity Strategist Francisco Blanch estimating that the US enjoys a $700mn per day “energy carry” relative advantage.What does the Index means?
While US GDP growth remains tepid, US corporate profits have soared leading companies to build cash on their balance sheets. However, capex has not kept pace after years of underinvestment. Mergers and acquisitions activity can also rise given strong balance sheets, low interest rates, and attractive equity valuations. In lieu of M&A, idle cash has resulted in increased dividend payouts and share buybacks.Capital expenditure spending is cyclical (and mean reverting). We also find it to be a good coincidental market indicator: a rise in capex is generally associated with gains in the equity markets. Capex levels appear to have troughed and are reverting back towards their historical level, which should be supportive of equity markets.M&A activity has yet to recover from the global financial crisis. M&A levels are at their lowest since 2002 and more than 60% below the historical average, despite a rising stock market, comparatively inexpensive corporate debt and record levels of corporate cash. So far, companies have used their increasing cash levels to buy back shares and distribute dividends.The good news: from these levels, M&A should rise, particularly as the economy continues to improve.
The Troika (European Commission (EC), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European Central Bank (ECB)) could make a few concessions to Greece on the extent of its austerity, by cutting interest rates on loans and supporting infrastructure spending, but is unwilling to pledge additional fundsFull debt monetization remains a possibility for the ECB as the crisis has spread to Spain and Italy. Near-term focus will be on whether the ECB sticks to its previous comments by purchasing short-dated peripheral debt to reduce these country’s funding pressuresA more expanded role by the ECB, including full use of its balance sheet, is needed to supplement the current European crisis management tools (the European Stability Mechanism continues to be delayed). Without a commitment from the ECB to use its balance sheet, investors will likely remain skeptical as to whether the current “firewalls” are sufficientEurozone banks are still at the early stages of deleveraging - an “orderly deleveraging” is required to reduce economic risks to the global economy. Policies will likely be focused to reduce the flow of capital from peripheral banks to outside of their respective countryWhile many European equities look attractive in the medium-term (extreme defensive positioning, attractive valuations), the recent rally could be coming to an end without decisive policy action. We remain cautious and patience is warranted before investing in risk assets. Markets will likely remain macro-driven through 2012