Overlooked links in results chains can undermine development effectiveness. Three issues are highlighted: 1) Focusing only on short-term goals limits prevention and sustainability. 2) Project and country objectives sometimes differ, so project success does not guarantee country success. 3) Results are interlinked across sectors so a narrow focus may miss wider impacts. To improve, evaluations must measure appropriate results, avoid oversimplification, and apply lessons to strengthen development strategies over the long term.

1. Overlooked Links in the Results Chain Vinod Thomas Director-General and Senior Vice President XubeiLuo Senior Economist Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group June 2nd, 2011

2. When vital links are overlooked… Focusing only on relief and rehabilitation and not on prevention costs millions of lost lives and livelihood School access without learning hurts millions of children and their success in the marketplace Misplaced emphasis on liberalization and self-regulation without regulatory frameworks contributed to the global financial crisis Repeating successful water projects in the face of groundwater and coastal zone crises drowns development results

3. Crucial links in the results chain Focus on the right results Measure results right Use findings creatively to improve results

4. Focus on the right results

5. 1. The urgent can drive out the important One-off natural disaster responses limit capacity for reacting in the future Almost half of the countries borrowing from the World Bank for disaster response did not mention disaster prevention in their development plans Mitigation and prevention can greatly reduce loss of life and damages The benefit-cost ratios of prevention range from 1.5 to 5.7

6. 2. Project- and country-level results differ Projects and country programs are rated against different objectives No fixed relationship between results frameworks at the project- and country-level Outcome objectives at the project level are not the same as those at the country level Satisfactory project outcomes do not add up to satisfactory country program outcomes Chad-Cameroon pipeline met project objectives but not Chad’s country objectives of poverty reduction and capacity building

7. 3. Results are linked across sectors Infrastructure Better roads contribute to higher school enrollment and better health outcomes Rural electrification improves life quality Health Mother’s education affects her children’s health Poor sanitation and hygiene can wipe out benefits of health projects Public-private partnership Public and private sector inputs combine to improve crop production

8. Measure results right

9. 4. Composite indicators may mislead Indicators should be built on sound premises Emphasizing costs but not benefits of regulations can lead to the wrong prescriptions for regulatory reform Clusters and weights can have a critical effect Countries with better governance ratings may not gain from a larger weight on governance in IDA resource allocation Adding, rating, or ranking can over simplify reality Adding indices of different dimensions can obscure actual results Rigor can be compromised by rescaling from cardinal to ordinal values

10. 5. Intermediate outcomes do not ensure desired final results Program achievement will be hard to assess if the desired results are not spelled out The results chain is complex from school enrollment to learning Tanzania: increase in enrollment vs. decline in secondary education learning outcomes India: increase in teacher attendance vs. same test scores The new WB education strategy rightly focuses on accountability and results

11. 6. Averages can mask targeted outcomes Rural electrification Bangladesh: the poorest 40% rural households accounted for 17% of total electrified rural households Nutrition Ethiopia: free food distribution improved children’s weight-for-height z score in richer households but not in poorer households Microfinance Philippines: microfinance benefited men and richer entrepreneurs more than women and the poor Social funds and community-driven development Benin: community contribution requirement created hardship for the poor

12. Use findings creatively to improve results

13. 7. Applying lessons for the future Repeating successful projects may not be enough in a changing environment Water accessibility vs. water scarcity concerns China: large-scale irrigation projects Road investment vs. environmental concerns Bangladesh: three-wheeled taxis Innovative strategies are required to meet future needs Water: coastal zone management, pollution reduction, and groundwater conservation Transport: programmatic, cross-cutting, and multi-sectoral approaches

14. 8. Missed opportunities Resolve apparent conflicts among policy objectives Energy subsidies Protected forest areas Overcome institutional constraints and limitations MIGA’s Convention on risk insurance WBG’s safeguard policies Reduce information constraints Cost-Benefit Analysis

15. 9. Timing can make a big difference Learn faster what works and focus on results at the right time Mexico: evaluation of Progresa, Oportunidades Philippines: early childhood development program evaluation Translate evaluative lessons into development results Tailored messages in various formats to reach the audience Collaboration with clients and stakeholders

16. Conclusions Enormous value can be added when evaluators recognize and emphasize crucial factors Pay-offs can be high when evaluation frameworks encourage innovation and risk taking and when findings and recommendations are followed up

17. Thank you! Improving Development Results Through Excellence in Evaluation www.ieg.worldbankgroup.org