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Gas Development Master Plan
Organisational and Regulatory Challenges
Consensus Building Workshop
Presented by:
David J. Braithwaite โ€“ President Director
PT. Q Energy South East Asia


Shangri-La Hotel, Jakarta
21 June 2012
Overview
โ€ข Regulatory developments: recent
โ€ข Regulatory developments: likely to occur soon
โ€ข Summary of regulatory challenges across gas supply
  chain
โ€ข Organisational complexity
โ€ข Examples of how these have constrained gas
  development
โ€ข Conclusions




                                                       2
Regulatory Developments: Recent

               LAW/REGULATION                         IMPACT ON GAS DEVELOPMENT

Minister EMR Regulation 5 of 2012
                                               Positive: provides regulatory certainty for
Procedure for Determining and Offering Non-
                                               development of shale gas (as well as CBM)
Conventional Oil and Gas Work Areas
Presidential Instruction 2 of 2012             Positive: if new incentives given for gas as well as
National Crude Oil Production Increase         oil
BP Migas annoucement of increase in PSC gas
                                               Positive: for upstream
well-head prices 2012
                                               Negative: (short-term) for downstream?
(Migas regulation to follow soon?)
                                               Negative (for competing with coal):
Presidential Regulation 61 of 2011             Energy sector only expected to contribute 4.1% of
National Action Plan to Reduce GHG Emissions   total reduction and gas to contribute 0.4% through
                                               CNG for public transport
                                               Negative: may discourage future gas exploration
Govt. Reg No. 79 of 2010
                                               as challenges sanctity of the PSC?
Cost Recovery and Income Tax in Upstream
                                               (IPAโ€™s petition for judicial review to Supreme Court
Business Sector
                                               was denied)
Minister EMR Decree 3 of 2010                  Positive: provides clarity on how gas to be used
Priorities for Domestic Gas Utilisation        but likely to constrain industry growth

                                                                                                      3
Regulatory Developments: Recent


               LAW/REGULATION                             IMPACT ON GAS DEVELOPMENT

Minister EMR Regulation 19 of 2010                  Positive: should increase likelihood of
Utilisation of Natural Gas as Gas Fuel for          infrastructure being built and gas supply being
Transportation Purposes                             made available
                                                    Positive: as provides data on gas supply and
Minister EMR Decree 2010
                                                    demand by region but how up to date is it: 2011
The Indonesia Gas Balance 2010 - 2025
                                                    update not yet released
Minister EMR Decree No 0225 of 2010                 Positive: if implemented, but lacks detail on
Master Plan for National Natural Gas Distribution   assumptions made for defining pipeline routes
and Transmission Network 2010 - 2025                and distribution areas
Presidential Instruction No 1 of 2010
                                                    Positive: if implemented includes floating LNG
Execution of National Development Priorities
                                                    regas terminal in W. Java, N. Sumatra and E. Java
(including gas infrastructure)




                                                                                                        4
Regulatory Developments: Likely to Occur Soon?

               LAW/REGULATION                                 IMPACT ON GAS DEVELOPMENT

Revision of 2001 Oil and Gas Law
- National Oil Company first right to operate
                                                       Negative: creates significant uncertainty
   expired PSCโ€™s?
- Strengthening the gas DMO?

Fiscal incentives to increase oil and gas production
                                                       Positive: if incentives extended to gas
(prompted by Presidential Instruction 2 of 2012)


                                                       Positive: focus on using gas domestically, though
New Energy Policy 2011 โ€“ 2025                          share in energy mix declines to 15% in long term.
                                                       Energy pricing may include environmental costs.

                                                       Positive: potentially more gas available for
Acceleration of gas flaring elimination
                                                       domestic use

 #) To follow (reviewing policy still)




                                                                                                           5
Summary of Regulatory challenges/
      Uncertainties Across Gas Supply Chain
Upstream                              - Domestic gas pricing
(Exploration and Production)          - PSC extensions
                                      - Cost recovery
                                      - PSC terms for gas in deepwater/remote
                                        areas
                                      - DMO expectation
                                      - Gas flaring elimination


Midstream                             - Permitting
(Gas Transmission Pipelines/FSRUโ€™s)   - Land access
                                      - Pipelines: regulated Rate of Return for
                                        transmission and distribution
                                      - Gas Master Plan: process for updating
                                      - FSRUโ€™s:
                                          - Project implementation uncertainty
                                          - LNG supply


Downstream                            - Gas competing with subsidised oil
(Gas Distribution)                      products/LPG
                                      - Gas supply
                                      - Delineation of distribution areas in Gas
                                         Master Plan


                                                                                   6
Organisational Complexity
Constraining Gas Development
โ€ข Many Government institutions influencing gas
  development
โ€ข Some potential institutional overlap in responsibilities
  (e.g. upstream gas pricing)
โ€ข Institutions may have different priorities
โ€ข Some institutions announce new policies and targets but
  these are not always followed by detailed
  implementation plans
โ€ข Apparent lack of one single institution empowered to
  decide on and implement a fully integrated gas supply
  chain development plan



                                                         7
Key Regulatory Institutions: Gas Supply Chain


                     MEMR/MIGAS
UPSTREAM             BPMIGAS


                     MEMR/MIGAS
MIDSTREAM            BPH MIGAS

                     MEMR/MIGAS
DOWNSTREAM           BPH MIGAS


                                                 8
Government Institutions
        Influencing Gas Supply Chain Development
                                                 MINISTRY OF
                                                   FINANCE


                                                                  NATIONAL
                                   BAPPENAS                    ENERGY COUNCIL

                      COORD MINISTER                                  MINISTRY OF
                        ECONOMY                                      PUBLIC WORKS
                                                MEMR/MIGAS

                               BP MIGAS                                    MINISTRY OF
                                                                          HOME AFFAIRS
                REGENTS/                           GAS
                 MAYORS                          SUPPLY
                                                  CHAIN                          MINISTRY OF
                                                                               TRANSPORTATION

                 GOVERNORS
                                                   BPH MIGAS               MINISTRY OF
                                                                          AGRICULTURE
                         CHAIRMAN OF
                     NATIONAL LAND BOARD                              MINISTRY OF
                                                                       FORESTRY
                              MINISTRY OF
                                 SOE'S                           MINISTRY OF
                                                                ENVIRONMENT
                                  MINISTRY OF
                                  LAW AND HR           MINISTRY OF
                                                        INDUSTRY


Itemised in
Presidential Instruction No. 2 of 2012
                                                                                                9
Examples of a Lack of Co-ordination
In Government Gas Policy Implementation
โ€ข In 2012 Minister of State-Owned Enterprises announced that the FSRU
  dedicated for the new LNG regas plant in Medan should be re-located
  to Lampung (and Medanโ€™s gas needs would be met by a pipeline from
  Aceh), despite the FSRU project being itemised in the 2010 Presidential
  Instruction โ€œexecution of national development prioritiesโ€
โ€ข Issuance in 2010 of a regulation for widespread use of gas for
  transportation, but subsidy on premium gasoline and diesel oil remains
  unchanged
โ€ข Announcement in 2010 by Minister EMR: gas distribution pipelines to
  be built to meet household needs in several cities, but LPG for
  residential used is still subsidised
โ€ข 2011 at PLN Muara Tawar Steam Power Plant in Bekasi (1350 MW), only
  7 of the 12 gas turbines were able to use gas, as PGN was not able to
  supply the full volume committed, as government has in turn allocated
  100 mmscfd of this gas to another user (to Chevronโ€™s Duri field in Riau)



                                                                       10
Examples of Pipelines Not Being Built

The following completion dates were set by the Government for gas transmission
gas pipeline projects


                                  Length        Capacity
          PROJECT                                              Completion
                                   (KM)        (MMSCFD)
Grissik โ€“ W. Java                  661             400              2007
Duri โ€“ Medan                       521             250              2007
E. Kalimantan โ€“ C. Java           1,219           1,100        2007/2010
E. Java โ€“ W. Java                  680             350         2008/2010

To date only the Grissik to West Java pipeline has been completed




                                                                                 11
Examples of Gas Demand Not Being Met
Due to Lack of Gas Pipelines
โ€ข Forum for Nat Gas User Industries has for a long time
  highlighted the lack of gas for its member companies.
  For instance ceramics industries could only produce 5
  million m2 per day of their 6.5 million m2 capacity, due
  to lack of gas supply
โ€ข A few days ago PLN issued a warning of possible black-
  outs occuring in Jakarta to a shortage of gas from the
  newly-commissioned FSRU in Jakarta




                                                        12
Conclusions
Several factors appear contribute to the current lack of the gas supply
and gas infrastructure
โ€ข Regulations not being fully implemented
โ€ข Conflicting energy policies being pursued
โ€ข Many institutions can have an impact on gas supply development
  but no single institution is empowered to have final say on defining
  and implementing an integrated gas supply chain development plan
โ€ข Infrastructure project developers need commitments from both gas
  suppliers and gas users before proceeding, which to date have been
  very difficult to secure (and pipeline rates of return are regulated)
โ€ข Domestic gas prices are increasing significantly which may attract
  more gas producers to sell into the domestic market but how will
  domestic users see the long term competitiveness of gas versus coal
  in the power sector, and versus subsidised oil products, and LPG in
  the transport and household sectors?


                                                                    13

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Organisational and regulatory david braithwaite (formatted)

  • 1. Gas Development Master Plan Organisational and Regulatory Challenges Consensus Building Workshop Presented by: David J. Braithwaite โ€“ President Director PT. Q Energy South East Asia Shangri-La Hotel, Jakarta 21 June 2012
  • 2. Overview โ€ข Regulatory developments: recent โ€ข Regulatory developments: likely to occur soon โ€ข Summary of regulatory challenges across gas supply chain โ€ข Organisational complexity โ€ข Examples of how these have constrained gas development โ€ข Conclusions 2
  • 3. Regulatory Developments: Recent LAW/REGULATION IMPACT ON GAS DEVELOPMENT Minister EMR Regulation 5 of 2012 Positive: provides regulatory certainty for Procedure for Determining and Offering Non- development of shale gas (as well as CBM) Conventional Oil and Gas Work Areas Presidential Instruction 2 of 2012 Positive: if new incentives given for gas as well as National Crude Oil Production Increase oil BP Migas annoucement of increase in PSC gas Positive: for upstream well-head prices 2012 Negative: (short-term) for downstream? (Migas regulation to follow soon?) Negative (for competing with coal): Presidential Regulation 61 of 2011 Energy sector only expected to contribute 4.1% of National Action Plan to Reduce GHG Emissions total reduction and gas to contribute 0.4% through CNG for public transport Negative: may discourage future gas exploration Govt. Reg No. 79 of 2010 as challenges sanctity of the PSC? Cost Recovery and Income Tax in Upstream (IPAโ€™s petition for judicial review to Supreme Court Business Sector was denied) Minister EMR Decree 3 of 2010 Positive: provides clarity on how gas to be used Priorities for Domestic Gas Utilisation but likely to constrain industry growth 3
  • 4. Regulatory Developments: Recent LAW/REGULATION IMPACT ON GAS DEVELOPMENT Minister EMR Regulation 19 of 2010 Positive: should increase likelihood of Utilisation of Natural Gas as Gas Fuel for infrastructure being built and gas supply being Transportation Purposes made available Positive: as provides data on gas supply and Minister EMR Decree 2010 demand by region but how up to date is it: 2011 The Indonesia Gas Balance 2010 - 2025 update not yet released Minister EMR Decree No 0225 of 2010 Positive: if implemented, but lacks detail on Master Plan for National Natural Gas Distribution assumptions made for defining pipeline routes and Transmission Network 2010 - 2025 and distribution areas Presidential Instruction No 1 of 2010 Positive: if implemented includes floating LNG Execution of National Development Priorities regas terminal in W. Java, N. Sumatra and E. Java (including gas infrastructure) 4
  • 5. Regulatory Developments: Likely to Occur Soon? LAW/REGULATION IMPACT ON GAS DEVELOPMENT Revision of 2001 Oil and Gas Law - National Oil Company first right to operate Negative: creates significant uncertainty expired PSCโ€™s? - Strengthening the gas DMO? Fiscal incentives to increase oil and gas production Positive: if incentives extended to gas (prompted by Presidential Instruction 2 of 2012) Positive: focus on using gas domestically, though New Energy Policy 2011 โ€“ 2025 share in energy mix declines to 15% in long term. Energy pricing may include environmental costs. Positive: potentially more gas available for Acceleration of gas flaring elimination domestic use #) To follow (reviewing policy still) 5
  • 6. Summary of Regulatory challenges/ Uncertainties Across Gas Supply Chain Upstream - Domestic gas pricing (Exploration and Production) - PSC extensions - Cost recovery - PSC terms for gas in deepwater/remote areas - DMO expectation - Gas flaring elimination Midstream - Permitting (Gas Transmission Pipelines/FSRUโ€™s) - Land access - Pipelines: regulated Rate of Return for transmission and distribution - Gas Master Plan: process for updating - FSRUโ€™s: - Project implementation uncertainty - LNG supply Downstream - Gas competing with subsidised oil (Gas Distribution) products/LPG - Gas supply - Delineation of distribution areas in Gas Master Plan 6
  • 7. Organisational Complexity Constraining Gas Development โ€ข Many Government institutions influencing gas development โ€ข Some potential institutional overlap in responsibilities (e.g. upstream gas pricing) โ€ข Institutions may have different priorities โ€ข Some institutions announce new policies and targets but these are not always followed by detailed implementation plans โ€ข Apparent lack of one single institution empowered to decide on and implement a fully integrated gas supply chain development plan 7
  • 8. Key Regulatory Institutions: Gas Supply Chain MEMR/MIGAS UPSTREAM BPMIGAS MEMR/MIGAS MIDSTREAM BPH MIGAS MEMR/MIGAS DOWNSTREAM BPH MIGAS 8
  • 9. Government Institutions Influencing Gas Supply Chain Development MINISTRY OF FINANCE NATIONAL BAPPENAS ENERGY COUNCIL COORD MINISTER MINISTRY OF ECONOMY PUBLIC WORKS MEMR/MIGAS BP MIGAS MINISTRY OF HOME AFFAIRS REGENTS/ GAS MAYORS SUPPLY CHAIN MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION GOVERNORS BPH MIGAS MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE CHAIRMAN OF NATIONAL LAND BOARD MINISTRY OF FORESTRY MINISTRY OF SOE'S MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT MINISTRY OF LAW AND HR MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY Itemised in Presidential Instruction No. 2 of 2012 9
  • 10. Examples of a Lack of Co-ordination In Government Gas Policy Implementation โ€ข In 2012 Minister of State-Owned Enterprises announced that the FSRU dedicated for the new LNG regas plant in Medan should be re-located to Lampung (and Medanโ€™s gas needs would be met by a pipeline from Aceh), despite the FSRU project being itemised in the 2010 Presidential Instruction โ€œexecution of national development prioritiesโ€ โ€ข Issuance in 2010 of a regulation for widespread use of gas for transportation, but subsidy on premium gasoline and diesel oil remains unchanged โ€ข Announcement in 2010 by Minister EMR: gas distribution pipelines to be built to meet household needs in several cities, but LPG for residential used is still subsidised โ€ข 2011 at PLN Muara Tawar Steam Power Plant in Bekasi (1350 MW), only 7 of the 12 gas turbines were able to use gas, as PGN was not able to supply the full volume committed, as government has in turn allocated 100 mmscfd of this gas to another user (to Chevronโ€™s Duri field in Riau) 10
  • 11. Examples of Pipelines Not Being Built The following completion dates were set by the Government for gas transmission gas pipeline projects Length Capacity PROJECT Completion (KM) (MMSCFD) Grissik โ€“ W. Java 661 400 2007 Duri โ€“ Medan 521 250 2007 E. Kalimantan โ€“ C. Java 1,219 1,100 2007/2010 E. Java โ€“ W. Java 680 350 2008/2010 To date only the Grissik to West Java pipeline has been completed 11
  • 12. Examples of Gas Demand Not Being Met Due to Lack of Gas Pipelines โ€ข Forum for Nat Gas User Industries has for a long time highlighted the lack of gas for its member companies. For instance ceramics industries could only produce 5 million m2 per day of their 6.5 million m2 capacity, due to lack of gas supply โ€ข A few days ago PLN issued a warning of possible black- outs occuring in Jakarta to a shortage of gas from the newly-commissioned FSRU in Jakarta 12
  • 13. Conclusions Several factors appear contribute to the current lack of the gas supply and gas infrastructure โ€ข Regulations not being fully implemented โ€ข Conflicting energy policies being pursued โ€ข Many institutions can have an impact on gas supply development but no single institution is empowered to have final say on defining and implementing an integrated gas supply chain development plan โ€ข Infrastructure project developers need commitments from both gas suppliers and gas users before proceeding, which to date have been very difficult to secure (and pipeline rates of return are regulated) โ€ข Domestic gas prices are increasing significantly which may attract more gas producers to sell into the domestic market but how will domestic users see the long term competitiveness of gas versus coal in the power sector, and versus subsidised oil products, and LPG in the transport and household sectors? 13