The Future of Higher Education - Four OECD Scenarios

The Future of Higher Education Four OECD Scenarios Mihaylo Milovanovitch OECD Directorate for Education 3rd Congress on Innovation Porto Alegre, 18 November 2010

Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

OECD – an overview ,[object Object]

34 OECD Members Australia (1971) Hungary (1996) Poland (1996) Austria (1961) Iceland (1961) Portugal (1961) Belgium (1961) Ireland (1961) Slovak Republic (2000) Canada (1961) Israel (2010) Slovenia (2010) Chile (2010) Italy (1961) Spain (1961) Czech Republic (1995) Japan (1964) Sweden (1961) Denmark (1961) Korea (1996) Switzerland (1961) Estonia (2010) Luxemburg (1961) Turkey (1961) Finland (1969) Mexico (1994) United Kingdom (1961) France (1961) Netherlands (1961) United States of America (1961) Germany (1961) New Zealand (1973) Greece (1961) Norway (1961)

1998 PISA countries in 2000 2001 2003 2006 2009 Coverage of world economy 77% 81% 83% 85% 86% 87%

An overview OECD Directorate for Education

Selected Trends ,[object Object],Credits: SCBWI

% 1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 2004 3. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003. 10 1 1 29 Selected Trends A world of change in the global skill supply Evolution of school completion Approximated by % of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years 37 35

Selected Trends Tertiary educational attainment of 25-64 population (%) OECD (2008): Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography

Selected Trends How the demand of skills has changed Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US) (Levy and Murnane) Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution

Selected Trends Excellence in education and countries’ research intensity Percentage of students at Levels 5 or 6 in the PISA assessment

Selected Trends Projected Tertiary Enrolments in 2025 under Recent Trends (2005=100) OECD (2008): Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography

Selected Trends Demographic Shape of Tertiary Education in the Future Source: OECD (2009) Graduate education Continuing education First degree First degree Graduate education Continuing education

Selected Trends Evolution of share of private HE enrollments 1970-2006 Source: OECD (2009)

Selected Trends Increase in the Number of Foreign Students Worldwide and Projections Source: OECD (2009)

Project and Research Outline ,[object Object]

Project and Research Outline Long-term Policy Planning ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Project and Research Outline A Brief Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Project and Research Outline Higher Education to 2030 Series ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Four OECD Scenarios ,[object Object]

OECD Scenarios University Futures – Scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

OECD Scenarios University Futures - Scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

OECD Scenarios Scenario 1 – Open Networking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Related developments in the present Bologna Process in Europe; increased mobility; cheap and accessible computing power and communications; a culture of openness regarding intellectual property rights

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Related developments in the present Migration is a problematic issue in many countries; growing anti-globalisation movement based on economic and cultural grounds; social responsibility of universities is more and more in the policy debate OECD Scenarios Scenario 2 – Serving Local Communities

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Related developments in the present General quest for accountability, transparency, efficiency and effectiveness in public management; Increasing institutional autonomy in many countries ; Cost-sharing and raising tuition fees increasingly under debate; Increasingly competitive research funding OECD Scenarios Scenario 3 – New Public Responsibility

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Related developments in the present Trade in higher education and inclusion of it in trade negotiations; Increasing international mobility of students and cross-border higher education; Increase of cross-border funding of research and private research activities OECD Scenarios Scenario 4 – Higher Education Inc.

OECD Scenarios Four Scenarios for Higher Education Systems Serving Local Communities International National Market Demand-driven Administration Supply-driven Open Networking Higher Education Inc. New Public Responsibility

Thank you! [email_address] www.oecd.org/edu/universityfutures ; stephan.vincent-lancrin@oecd.org www.oecd./org/edu/nme

The Future of Higher Education - Four OECD Scenarios

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