The document discusses the goal set by the UNFCCC to limit global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels in order to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. It explains that keeping warming below 2°C requires near-zero global greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century through coordinated international efforts. While 2°C of warming may not cause major issues everywhere, it risks triggering significant impacts such as more frequent heat waves, impacts on water supplies, and coral bleaching. Failure to limit warming to 2°C could lead to even greater consequences for ecosystems, agriculture, coastlines and public health.
The document summarizes strategies for climate change and sustainable development presented at a conference from March 20-22, 2012 in Hyderabad, India. It discusses concepts like vulnerability, adaptation, national climate change plans, impacts on water resources, agriculture, forests and more. Biocharculture is introduced as a process using biochar for carbon sequestration and sustainable cultivation. Adaptation benefits of biocharculture include securing crops from climate impacts, reclaiming degraded soils, water conservation and reducing impacts of chemicals.
The document discusses climate change impacts in the Arctic region and proposes the Arctic Climate Action Registry (ACAR) as a way to incentivize reductions of short-lived climate pollutants like black carbon, methane, and tropospheric ozone that disproportionately affect the Arctic. ACAR would certify projects that reduce these emissions and slow Arctic warming, using standardized metrics. The strategy is to stimulate projects across sectors like shipping, forestry, and aviation that could help mitigate warming trends in the Arctic and globally within the decade.
The document discusses how climate change and variability impacts poverty alleviation efforts, with a focus on vulnerability assessments and enhancing adaptive capacity. It provides information on climate trends in India, the national action plan to address climate change, and strategies to improve rural livelihoods and agricultural resilience through integrated approaches at the community level. The challenges of climate change, soil health, water management, and energy access for rural populations are examined.
1) Oceans have absorbed over 90% of the excess heat from global warming since 1970, causing ocean temperatures and heat content to rise steadily. This increased heat will affect global climate patterns.
2) Measurements by multiple agencies show the ocean continues to warm both at the surface and at depth, with higher rates of warming at high latitudes and in the Southern Ocean. Warming oceans also lead to rising sea levels and ocean acidification.
3) Precipitation patterns are changing, with statistically significant increases at northern latitudes and decreases at southern latitudes, consistent with a warmer and moister atmosphere under climate change.
Rajendra K. Pachauri, the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, addressed the negotiators at the 18th round of climate treaty talks in Doha, Qatar, on Nov. 28, 2012. More on Dot Earth: http://j.mp/dotcop18
IPCC: http://ipcc.ch
Treaty: http://unfccc.int
The document summarizes key points from the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report and highlights of the upcoming COP26 climate conference. It discusses the urgent need to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. The IPCC report finds that human influence has unequivocally warmed the planet and that impacts are intensifying. Immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed this decade to curb climate change risks. The COP26 conference aims to secure global commitments to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 and keep 1.5 degrees within reach.
Scientific Facts on Arctic Climate ChangeGreenFacts
Our climate is already changing, particularly in the Arctic where permafrost is melting, glaciers are receding, and sea ice is disappearing.
Changes in the Arctic will not only affect local people and ecosystems but also the rest of the world, because the Arctic plays a special role in global climate.
How has the climate changed in the Arctic so far, and what future changes are expected?
National Climate Assessment (Draft) Report Executive Summaryclimate central
Climate change is affecting the United States through increased temperatures, rising sea levels, more extreme weather events, and ocean acidification. These changes threaten infrastructure, ecosystems, and human health and livelihoods. While some mitigation efforts have reduced US emissions, global emissions are still increasing and more action is needed to avoid severe impacts. Adaptation is also critical to increasing resilience and reducing harm from current and future climate change impacts.
The document summarizes strategies for climate change and sustainable development presented at a conference from March 20-22, 2012 in Hyderabad, India. It discusses concepts like vulnerability, adaptation, national climate change plans, impacts on water resources, agriculture, forests and more. Biocharculture is introduced as a process using biochar for carbon sequestration and sustainable cultivation. Adaptation benefits of biocharculture include securing crops from climate impacts, reclaiming degraded soils, water conservation and reducing impacts of chemicals.
The document discusses climate change impacts in the Arctic region and proposes the Arctic Climate Action Registry (ACAR) as a way to incentivize reductions of short-lived climate pollutants like black carbon, methane, and tropospheric ozone that disproportionately affect the Arctic. ACAR would certify projects that reduce these emissions and slow Arctic warming, using standardized metrics. The strategy is to stimulate projects across sectors like shipping, forestry, and aviation that could help mitigate warming trends in the Arctic and globally within the decade.
The document discusses how climate change and variability impacts poverty alleviation efforts, with a focus on vulnerability assessments and enhancing adaptive capacity. It provides information on climate trends in India, the national action plan to address climate change, and strategies to improve rural livelihoods and agricultural resilience through integrated approaches at the community level. The challenges of climate change, soil health, water management, and energy access for rural populations are examined.
1) Oceans have absorbed over 90% of the excess heat from global warming since 1970, causing ocean temperatures and heat content to rise steadily. This increased heat will affect global climate patterns.
2) Measurements by multiple agencies show the ocean continues to warm both at the surface and at depth, with higher rates of warming at high latitudes and in the Southern Ocean. Warming oceans also lead to rising sea levels and ocean acidification.
3) Precipitation patterns are changing, with statistically significant increases at northern latitudes and decreases at southern latitudes, consistent with a warmer and moister atmosphere under climate change.
Rajendra K. Pachauri, the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, addressed the negotiators at the 18th round of climate treaty talks in Doha, Qatar, on Nov. 28, 2012. More on Dot Earth: http://j.mp/dotcop18
IPCC: http://ipcc.ch
Treaty: http://unfccc.int
The document summarizes key points from the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report and highlights of the upcoming COP26 climate conference. It discusses the urgent need to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. The IPCC report finds that human influence has unequivocally warmed the planet and that impacts are intensifying. Immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed this decade to curb climate change risks. The COP26 conference aims to secure global commitments to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 and keep 1.5 degrees within reach.
Scientific Facts on Arctic Climate ChangeGreenFacts
Our climate is already changing, particularly in the Arctic where permafrost is melting, glaciers are receding, and sea ice is disappearing.
Changes in the Arctic will not only affect local people and ecosystems but also the rest of the world, because the Arctic plays a special role in global climate.
How has the climate changed in the Arctic so far, and what future changes are expected?
National Climate Assessment (Draft) Report Executive Summaryclimate central
Climate change is affecting the United States through increased temperatures, rising sea levels, more extreme weather events, and ocean acidification. These changes threaten infrastructure, ecosystems, and human health and livelihoods. While some mitigation efforts have reduced US emissions, global emissions are still increasing and more action is needed to avoid severe impacts. Adaptation is also critical to increasing resilience and reducing harm from current and future climate change impacts.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC's Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. It finds that glaciers and snow cover are declining rapidly around the world, including in regions like Europe, Africa, South America and Asia. This is increasing hazards like floods and landslides. Peak water levels in glacier-fed rivers have already passed or will pass by mid-century in many areas. This will significantly impact downstream water supply for billions of people. Adaptation measures are needed to help communities adjust and ensure sustainable water resources in a warming world. Limiting warming to 1.5C compared to 2C could help reduce these risks.
This document summarizes various approaches to implementing adaptation to sea level rise. It discusses hard protection, sediment-based protection, ecosystem-based adaptation using corals and wetlands, coastal advance, coastal accommodation, and retreat. For each approach, it outlines their effectiveness, advantages, drawbacks, economic efficiency, and governance challenges in adapting to and mitigating sea level rise. The document emphasizes that sea level rise poses major risks to coastal cities and small islands, and that uncertainty increases regarding impacts beyond 2100 due to uncertainties around Antarctic ice sheet dynamics.
The document provides information about climate change and global warming. It defines key terms like weather, climate and greenhouse gases. It discusses the evidence that climate change is caused by human activities like burning fossil fuels and releasing greenhouse gases. It also notes some of the observed impacts of climate change, such as rising temperatures, sea level rise, and more extreme weather events. Finally, it discusses some actions that can be taken to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
Definition, Concept and History of Climate Change; positive & negative feedback cycles; GHGs; Global temperature and carbon dioxide; hottest years, enhanced natural disasters, #UNFCCC; #Kyoto_Protocol; #Paris_Agreement; SDGs; Roles of municipal and regional authorities; Institutional arrangements for climate change in Pakistan; Pakistan Climate Change Policy 2012; Pakistan Climate Change Act 2017.
This document discusses global warming and climate change. It notes that global temperatures have risen about 1 degree Celsius from pre-industrial levels and are projected to increase over 3 degrees Celsius by 2100 if emissions are not reduced. Some impacts of rising temperatures include more extreme weather, rising sea levels, melting ice sheets and glaciers, and threats to food production and water resources. Solutions proposed to address climate change include mitigation through reducing greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy, and carbon sequestration.
The extensive interview with Dr. Gupta contains references, analysis and insight into the “challenges of the commons” faced globally, including:
• Energy and water resources and their implications for development and foreign affairs;
• Climate change, carbon emissions equations and the response of nature;
• Discussions about natural gas and nuclear energy and waste;
• And, the geopolitics and economics surrounding the energy- water nexus, with references to China and India.
Nature
July 25, 2013
Vol 499, pg 401
Methane released by melting permafrost will have global impacts that must be better
modelled, say Gail Whiteman, Chris Hope and Peter Wadhams.
Global warming is caused by an increase in greenhouse gases from human activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation. This traps heat in the lower atmosphere and increases Earth's temperature. Some impacts of global warming include rising sea levels submerging coastal areas, more extreme weather events, wildfires increasing, and threats to plants and animals as temperatures rise. Global warming will have widespread health, environmental, and economic effects around the world if left unaddressed.
The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climateipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. It finds that the ocean and cryosphere have absorbed much of the increased heat from climate change, with consequences including sea level rise, shrinking glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in marine life. These changes threaten coastal communities, water resources, and cultural heritage. Urgent action is needed to address these impacts and transition societies in a sustainable way. Limiting warming to 1.5C would help societies better adapt to inevitable changes.
[Challenge:Future] HELL ON EARTH (inspiring change)Challenge:Future
The document discusses climate change and global warming. It notes that the average surface temperature has increased 0.8°C in the last 100 years, with two-thirds of the increase in the last three decades. Models project further temperature increases of 1.5-6.1°C by 2100 depending on emissions levels. Impacts will include sea level rise, changing precipitation patterns, more extreme weather, and species extinctions. Responses proposed include mitigating emissions, adapting to impacts, and geoengineering methods like carbon removal. The main international agreement is the Kyoto Protocol.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems. It involved over 100 authors from over 50 countries who assessed over 7,000 references and received over 28,000 comments. The report found that land is under growing human pressure but can also be part of climate change solutions. However, land cannot address climate change on its own. It identified high risks from land-related impacts with just 1.5°C of warming and severe risks by 3°C of warming. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework outlines scenarios ranging from population decline and sustainable land use
Climate change will negatively impact global food production and supply in several ways:
1. Rising temperatures, droughts, and extreme weather from climate change will reduce crop yields for many plants worldwide, especially in dry and tropical regions. This will decrease global food availability.
2. Climate change will also harm livestock through heat stress, drought reducing pastures and feed, and increasing diseases. It may also decrease the nutritional quality of livestock feed.
3. Fisheries will be negatively impacted as some fish species shift ranges, diseases spread, and ocean acidification harms shellfish. This threatens food supplies and livelihoods in fishing communities.
This document provides information on climate change from a lecture given by Md. Abdullah-Al-Mahbub. It defines weather and climate, noting that weather is specific conditions over days while climate is average conditions over decades for a region. It discusses factors that determine climate like latitude, altitude, winds, and oceans. It also covers causes of climate change, distinguishing between natural causes like orbital changes, solar variations, and volcanic eruptions, and anthropogenic causes like greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use and population growth since the Industrial Revolution. Finally, it lists some critical changes caused by climate change like warming temperatures, changes to the water cycle, and declining glaciers.
Climate change causes rise global risks of hunger, floods and conflicts, warns the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its latest report entitled Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability available on website <http: />. This report states that the catastrophic effects of climate change must take place, for the most part, by inadequate preparation for coping with risks. The IPCC document details the impacts of climate change, future risks and opportunities for the adoption of effective measures to reduce the risks. It concludes that the response to climate change involves making appropriate choices to face the risks in a world that is constantly changing.
Session with Youth: The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climateipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. It finds that ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are melting faster than in the 20th century and are now the dominant cause of rising sea levels. Sea level rise has accelerated and is projected to increase risks for coastal communities. While some adaptation is occurring, the most vulnerable populations have less capacity to respond. Timely and ambitious climate mitigation can significantly reduce future sea level rise and its impacts.
Climate Change 2014- Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilityipcc-media
This document summarizes a report on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability from Working Group 2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The summary includes:
1) The report involved over 1,200 authors from over 90 countries and drew on over 12,000 scientific references. It underwent extensive review by over 50,000 comments from 1,700 reviewers from 84 countries.
2) The report finds that climate change poses a serious threat to sustainable development, but there are opportunities to link mitigation, adaptation and development goals through integrated responses. Delaying mitigation actions may reduce future adaptation options.
3) Key risks from climate change include risks to unique ecosystems, extreme weather events, unevenly distributed
This document discusses climate change in Indonesia and efforts to tackle it. It covers impacts of climate change like floods and droughts in Indonesia. It then discusses Indonesia's National Council on Climate Change, their goals of mainstreaming climate policies and strategies. This includes renewable energy development, forestry programs, and analyzing ocean carbon fluxes. The document ends by outlining Indonesia's submissions to the UNFCCC regarding adaptation, technology transfer and capacity building priorities like monitoring climate impacts on oceans.
The document discusses challenges and opportunities for renewable energy in developing nations in the context of climate change. It outlines how developing nations face significant impacts from climate change but have limited ability to mitigate impacts or transition to renewable energy due to financial and technical constraints. However, renewable energy represents an opportunity for inclusive sustainable growth. The document discusses policy, technological, financial, and management issues developing nations face in promoting renewable energy projects and calls for international support to address these challenges.
Key messages
Maintaining ocean ecosystems and services depends
in large part on the negotiation process
toward a global climate agreement under the
UNFCCC. In this regard, four key messages emerge
from our analysis. First, the ocean strongly influences
the climate system and provides important
services to humans. Second, impacts on key
marine and coastal organisms, ecosystems, and
services from anthropogenic CO2 emissions are
already detectable, and several will face high risk
of impacts well before 2100, even with the stringent
CO2 emissions scenario (RCP2.6). These impacts
are occurring across all latitudes and have
become a global concern that spans the traditional
north/south divide. Third, the analysis shows
that immediate and substantial reduction of CO2
emissions is required in order to prevent the massive
and effectively irreversible impacts on ocean
ecosystems and their services that are projected
with emissions scenarios more severe than RCP2.6.
Limiting emissions to below this level is necessary
to meet UNFCCC's stated objectives. Management
options that overlook CO2, such as solar
radiation management and control of methane
emission, will only minimize impacts of ocean
warming and not those of ocean acidification.
Fourth, as CO2 increases, the protection, adaptation,
and repair options for the ocean become
fewer and less effective.
Given the contrasting futures we have outlined
here, the ocean provides further compelling arguments
for rapid and rigorous CO2 emission
reduction and eventual reduction of atmospheric
CO2 content. As a result, any new global climate
agreement that does not minimize the impacts
on the ocean will be incomplete and inadequate.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC's Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. It finds that glaciers and snow cover are declining rapidly around the world, including in regions like Europe, Africa, South America and Asia. This is increasing hazards like floods and landslides. Peak water levels in glacier-fed rivers have already passed or will pass by mid-century in many areas. This will significantly impact downstream water supply for billions of people. Adaptation measures are needed to help communities adjust and ensure sustainable water resources in a warming world. Limiting warming to 1.5C compared to 2C could help reduce these risks.
This document summarizes various approaches to implementing adaptation to sea level rise. It discusses hard protection, sediment-based protection, ecosystem-based adaptation using corals and wetlands, coastal advance, coastal accommodation, and retreat. For each approach, it outlines their effectiveness, advantages, drawbacks, economic efficiency, and governance challenges in adapting to and mitigating sea level rise. The document emphasizes that sea level rise poses major risks to coastal cities and small islands, and that uncertainty increases regarding impacts beyond 2100 due to uncertainties around Antarctic ice sheet dynamics.
The document provides information about climate change and global warming. It defines key terms like weather, climate and greenhouse gases. It discusses the evidence that climate change is caused by human activities like burning fossil fuels and releasing greenhouse gases. It also notes some of the observed impacts of climate change, such as rising temperatures, sea level rise, and more extreme weather events. Finally, it discusses some actions that can be taken to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
Definition, Concept and History of Climate Change; positive & negative feedback cycles; GHGs; Global temperature and carbon dioxide; hottest years, enhanced natural disasters, #UNFCCC; #Kyoto_Protocol; #Paris_Agreement; SDGs; Roles of municipal and regional authorities; Institutional arrangements for climate change in Pakistan; Pakistan Climate Change Policy 2012; Pakistan Climate Change Act 2017.
This document discusses global warming and climate change. It notes that global temperatures have risen about 1 degree Celsius from pre-industrial levels and are projected to increase over 3 degrees Celsius by 2100 if emissions are not reduced. Some impacts of rising temperatures include more extreme weather, rising sea levels, melting ice sheets and glaciers, and threats to food production and water resources. Solutions proposed to address climate change include mitigation through reducing greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy, and carbon sequestration.
The extensive interview with Dr. Gupta contains references, analysis and insight into the “challenges of the commons” faced globally, including:
• Energy and water resources and their implications for development and foreign affairs;
• Climate change, carbon emissions equations and the response of nature;
• Discussions about natural gas and nuclear energy and waste;
• And, the geopolitics and economics surrounding the energy- water nexus, with references to China and India.
Nature
July 25, 2013
Vol 499, pg 401
Methane released by melting permafrost will have global impacts that must be better
modelled, say Gail Whiteman, Chris Hope and Peter Wadhams.
Global warming is caused by an increase in greenhouse gases from human activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation. This traps heat in the lower atmosphere and increases Earth's temperature. Some impacts of global warming include rising sea levels submerging coastal areas, more extreme weather events, wildfires increasing, and threats to plants and animals as temperatures rise. Global warming will have widespread health, environmental, and economic effects around the world if left unaddressed.
The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climateipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. It finds that the ocean and cryosphere have absorbed much of the increased heat from climate change, with consequences including sea level rise, shrinking glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in marine life. These changes threaten coastal communities, water resources, and cultural heritage. Urgent action is needed to address these impacts and transition societies in a sustainable way. Limiting warming to 1.5C would help societies better adapt to inevitable changes.
[Challenge:Future] HELL ON EARTH (inspiring change)Challenge:Future
The document discusses climate change and global warming. It notes that the average surface temperature has increased 0.8°C in the last 100 years, with two-thirds of the increase in the last three decades. Models project further temperature increases of 1.5-6.1°C by 2100 depending on emissions levels. Impacts will include sea level rise, changing precipitation patterns, more extreme weather, and species extinctions. Responses proposed include mitigating emissions, adapting to impacts, and geoengineering methods like carbon removal. The main international agreement is the Kyoto Protocol.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems. It involved over 100 authors from over 50 countries who assessed over 7,000 references and received over 28,000 comments. The report found that land is under growing human pressure but can also be part of climate change solutions. However, land cannot address climate change on its own. It identified high risks from land-related impacts with just 1.5°C of warming and severe risks by 3°C of warming. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework outlines scenarios ranging from population decline and sustainable land use
Climate change will negatively impact global food production and supply in several ways:
1. Rising temperatures, droughts, and extreme weather from climate change will reduce crop yields for many plants worldwide, especially in dry and tropical regions. This will decrease global food availability.
2. Climate change will also harm livestock through heat stress, drought reducing pastures and feed, and increasing diseases. It may also decrease the nutritional quality of livestock feed.
3. Fisheries will be negatively impacted as some fish species shift ranges, diseases spread, and ocean acidification harms shellfish. This threatens food supplies and livelihoods in fishing communities.
This document provides information on climate change from a lecture given by Md. Abdullah-Al-Mahbub. It defines weather and climate, noting that weather is specific conditions over days while climate is average conditions over decades for a region. It discusses factors that determine climate like latitude, altitude, winds, and oceans. It also covers causes of climate change, distinguishing between natural causes like orbital changes, solar variations, and volcanic eruptions, and anthropogenic causes like greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use and population growth since the Industrial Revolution. Finally, it lists some critical changes caused by climate change like warming temperatures, changes to the water cycle, and declining glaciers.
Climate change causes rise global risks of hunger, floods and conflicts, warns the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its latest report entitled Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability available on website <http: />. This report states that the catastrophic effects of climate change must take place, for the most part, by inadequate preparation for coping with risks. The IPCC document details the impacts of climate change, future risks and opportunities for the adoption of effective measures to reduce the risks. It concludes that the response to climate change involves making appropriate choices to face the risks in a world that is constantly changing.
Session with Youth: The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climateipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. It finds that ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are melting faster than in the 20th century and are now the dominant cause of rising sea levels. Sea level rise has accelerated and is projected to increase risks for coastal communities. While some adaptation is occurring, the most vulnerable populations have less capacity to respond. Timely and ambitious climate mitigation can significantly reduce future sea level rise and its impacts.
Climate Change 2014- Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilityipcc-media
This document summarizes a report on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability from Working Group 2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The summary includes:
1) The report involved over 1,200 authors from over 90 countries and drew on over 12,000 scientific references. It underwent extensive review by over 50,000 comments from 1,700 reviewers from 84 countries.
2) The report finds that climate change poses a serious threat to sustainable development, but there are opportunities to link mitigation, adaptation and development goals through integrated responses. Delaying mitigation actions may reduce future adaptation options.
3) Key risks from climate change include risks to unique ecosystems, extreme weather events, unevenly distributed
This document discusses climate change in Indonesia and efforts to tackle it. It covers impacts of climate change like floods and droughts in Indonesia. It then discusses Indonesia's National Council on Climate Change, their goals of mainstreaming climate policies and strategies. This includes renewable energy development, forestry programs, and analyzing ocean carbon fluxes. The document ends by outlining Indonesia's submissions to the UNFCCC regarding adaptation, technology transfer and capacity building priorities like monitoring climate impacts on oceans.
The document discusses challenges and opportunities for renewable energy in developing nations in the context of climate change. It outlines how developing nations face significant impacts from climate change but have limited ability to mitigate impacts or transition to renewable energy due to financial and technical constraints. However, renewable energy represents an opportunity for inclusive sustainable growth. The document discusses policy, technological, financial, and management issues developing nations face in promoting renewable energy projects and calls for international support to address these challenges.
Key messages
Maintaining ocean ecosystems and services depends
in large part on the negotiation process
toward a global climate agreement under the
UNFCCC. In this regard, four key messages emerge
from our analysis. First, the ocean strongly influences
the climate system and provides important
services to humans. Second, impacts on key
marine and coastal organisms, ecosystems, and
services from anthropogenic CO2 emissions are
already detectable, and several will face high risk
of impacts well before 2100, even with the stringent
CO2 emissions scenario (RCP2.6). These impacts
are occurring across all latitudes and have
become a global concern that spans the traditional
north/south divide. Third, the analysis shows
that immediate and substantial reduction of CO2
emissions is required in order to prevent the massive
and effectively irreversible impacts on ocean
ecosystems and their services that are projected
with emissions scenarios more severe than RCP2.6.
Limiting emissions to below this level is necessary
to meet UNFCCC's stated objectives. Management
options that overlook CO2, such as solar
radiation management and control of methane
emission, will only minimize impacts of ocean
warming and not those of ocean acidification.
Fourth, as CO2 increases, the protection, adaptation,
and repair options for the ocean become
fewer and less effective.
Given the contrasting futures we have outlined
here, the ocean provides further compelling arguments
for rapid and rigorous CO2 emission
reduction and eventual reduction of atmospheric
CO2 content. As a result, any new global climate
agreement that does not minimize the impacts
on the ocean will be incomplete and inadequate.
The document discusses the causes and effects of climate change, including rising sea levels from melting glaciers which floods land and impacts ecosystems, and the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Conference where countries discussed ways to minimize climate change but agreed on no long-term plans or greenhouse gas emission reductions. It also mentions local water restrictions in San Diego County due to drought as connected to climate change.
I. The polar regions are rapidly losing ice and experiencing changes in their oceans, with regional and global impacts.
II. The future polar regions will look profoundly different depending on how much warming occurs.
III. Choices exist to limit impacts and build resilience, but concerted action is needed to enable effective solutions.
The document discusses how the climate is changing due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases. It notes that the Environment Agency views climate change as the biggest threat to the future and that their highest priority is building the country's resilience to impacts like flooding, water shortages, and environmental deterioration. The document provides examples of conditions that may become more common as the climate changes, such as heavier rainfall, rising sea levels, and hotter temperatures, in order to demonstrate the threats and motivate action.
The IPCC was established in 1988 by the WMO and UNEP to provide assessments of climate change that are comprehensive, objective, and transparent. It assesses scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information on climate change, its impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC has found that warming of the climate is unequivocal, and that it is extremely likely that human activity has been the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century through greenhouse gas emissions and other human factors. Mitigation through reducing emissions and adaptation to impacts are necessary to reduce the risks of climate change.
Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth caused by human activities like burning fossil fuels. The planet has already warmed 0.8°C in the last 100 years, with two-thirds of that in the last three decades. Climate models project further warming of 1.1-6.4°C by 2100 depending on emissions levels. Effects will include sea level rise, more extreme weather, and species extinction if warming isn't mitigated. International agreements aim to limit global warming to under 2°C through reducing emissions, but current policies may not be enough to prevent dangerous climate change.
climate change final (DESKTOP-AOMNRME's conflicted copy 2019-09-25).pdfiqrayounus6
The document discusses climate change, defining it as the current rapid warming of the planet beyond natural variability due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. It describes the greenhouse effect and evidence of warming from temperature records, sea level rise, and glacial retreat. Effects on humans include water shortages, food insecurity, disasters, and disease. Solutions involve mitigation of emissions through technology and behavior change, adaptation to impacts, and international cooperation under frameworks like the UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen Accord, and Paris Agreement. Pakistan is vulnerable to climate effects but can build resilience through measures across sectors like water, agriculture, health, forests and disaster management.
1. India is highly vulnerable to the impacts of global warming such as rising sea levels, changes in weather patterns, and declining crop yields. 2. Global warming is caused by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation. 3. The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate global warming.
The document summarizes global warming and climate change. It states that global warming is unequivocal and human-caused by greenhouse gas emissions. If emissions continue at a high rate, global temperatures could increase between 2.4-6.4°C by 2100, causing sea level rise and more extreme weather. Responses proposed to address climate change include mitigation of emissions, adaptation to impacts, and geoengineering methods to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. International efforts to limit climate change through agreements like the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol have had limited success so far.
The document discusses global warming and its causes, evidence, and potential impacts. It also outlines strategies to mitigate and adapt to global warming effects, including the Kyoto Protocol which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Key technologies discussed are carbon capture and storage from large industrial sources, with geological storage seen as a promising option to help address the global challenge of climate change.
Keynote presentation: Mr. Henk Ovink, Special Envoy International Water Affai...OECD Governance
This document summarizes evidence that climate tipping points, which were previously thought to occur only at 5°C of warming, may now be exceeded at lower levels of warming between 1-2°C. Several ice sheets and ecosystems are seen to be dangerously close to tipping points that could have severe and long-lasting impacts. To reduce risks from tipping points, urgent emissions reductions are needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C as required by the Paris Agreement. Failure to reduce emissions means warming of 3°C or more, increasing chances of triggering irreversible and cascading climate changes.
1. A new study using improved elevation data finds that global vulnerability to sea level rise and coastal flooding is much worse than previously understood.
2. The study estimates that 190 million people could live on land below projected high tide lines for 2100 under low carbon emissions scenarios, tripling previous estimates. Under high emissions, 630 million people could live in areas vulnerable to annual coastal flooding by 2100.
3. Better elevation data was obtained using a new digital elevation model called CoastalDEM, which reduces errors in the main model previously used to assess exposure. This shows that vulnerability is much greater than assessed by other studies.
This document summarizes evidence that climate tipping points, which were previously thought to occur only at 5°C of warming, may now be exceeded at lower levels of warming between 1-2°C. Several ice sheets and ecosystems are seen to be dangerously close to tipping points that could have severe and long-lasting impacts. To reduce risks from tipping points, urgent emissions reductions are needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C as required by the Paris Agreement. Failure to reduce emissions means warming of 3°C or more, increasing chances of triggering irreversible and cascading climate changes.
Presentacion de Vicente Barros en el marco del Seminario de Formación Profesional en Cambio Climático y Bosques, organizado por Fopea, RADPC y Banco Mundial
The document provides information on climate change basics including definitions of key terms, causes and effects of climate change, greenhouse gases and their sources, impacts of climate change, and mitigation strategies. It defines climate change as a change in climate attributed to human activity that alters the atmosphere's composition. The key causes are emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide from activities like burning fossil fuels, agriculture, and deforestation. The impacts include rising temperatures, sea levels, and extreme weather events that threaten ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, economies, and human health and security. Mitigation strategies discussed include reducing emissions through renewable energy and carbon sequestration as well as engineering approaches like carbon capture and storage
This document provides definitions and context around key climate change terms such as climate change, climate variability, vulnerability, resilience, adaptation, and mitigation. It discusses the natural greenhouse effect and how human activities have enhanced this effect by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. This enhanced greenhouse effect has caused a rise in global surface temperatures between 1900-1990 and further warming is projected this century. The impacts of climate change cut across ecosystems, human systems, urban systems, economic systems and social systems. There has been growing international concern about climate change leading to agreements like the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol to reduce emissions and more recently the Paris Agreement. The IPCC provides regular climate change assessments. Pacific island countries are especially vulnerable to climate impacts
Plenary 1 - The Science of Climate Changerbulalakaw
Presentation of Dr. Tolentino Moya, Professor, Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology, University of the Philippines Diliman, during the UP Manila Conference on Global Climate Change, held October 22-23, 2009 at the Pearl Garden Hotel, Manila.
Global warming is caused by an increase in greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide that trap heat in the atmosphere. This greenhouse effect has raised Earth's average surface temperature and caused changes to the climate. Effects of global warming include more severe weather, melting Arctic ice and permafrost, rising sea levels that threaten coastal and island areas, and disruptions to ecosystems that support Arctic communities. The Kyoto Protocol was an agreement signed in 1997 where developed nations committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012, but global temperatures continue rising without sufficient action. Failure to curb emissions risks major climate change and destructive future warming.
Carbon lockin why we should free ourselvesNannette Arbon
The document discusses carbon lock-in and the challenges of transitioning to renewable energy due to existing fossil fuel infrastructure investments. It notes that while climate change poses serious threats, technologies exist to lower carbon emissions cost-effectively. However, their diffusion has been slow due to carbon lock-in effects from past policies and investments that have made economies dependent on fossil fuels. Transitioning away from these entrenched systems requires overcoming substantial inertia.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
The document discusses the benefits of meditation for reducing stress and anxiety. Regular meditation practice can help calm the mind and body by lowering heart rate and blood pressure. Studies have shown that meditating for just 10-20 minutes per day can have significant positive impacts on both mental and physical health over time.
This document analyzes trends in science media coverage over a five year period from 2010 to 2015 based on keyword searches. It shows fluctuations in news articles mentioning various science topics like earthquakes, climate change, influenza, fracking, droughts and more. Major events like natural disasters, political summits, disease outbreaks, and scientific discoveries correlated with spikes in coverage on related issues. The graphs demonstrate how the level of media coverage on different science topics changed significantly over the five year time frame.
This document analyzes trends in science media coverage over a five year period from 2010 to 2015 based on keyword searches. It shows fluctuations in news articles mentioning various science topics like earthquakes, climate change, influenza, fracking, droughts and more. Major events like natural disasters, political summits, disease outbreaks, and scientific discoveries correlated with spikes in coverage on related issues. The graphs demonstrate how the level of media coverage on different science topics changed significantly over the half decade studied.
This judgment concerns an appeal by Donald McDonald against a decision by the Broadcasting Standards Authority that his complaint about an inaccuracy in a TVNZ news broadcast was frivolous and trivial. The Authority declined to determine the complaint. McDonald also appealed a costs order against him for $50. The Court found that the Authority provided sufficient reasons for its decision and did not err in finding the inaccurate distance of a supernova was peripheral to the main story. The Court dismissed both appeals.
This document summarizes the significant earthquake that struck Christchurch, New Zealand on February 22, 2011. It was a magnitude 6.3 earthquake located close to the city, causing more severe shaking than the 2010 earthquake. Initial reports found ground shaking exceeded typical building design standards, resulting in widespread damage and collapsed structures. Emergency responders worked to rescue trapped survivors amid ongoing aftershocks. The earthquake will likely result in billions of dollars in losses and place a significant burden on recovery efforts still underway from the prior quake.
The document summarizes the top 10 science stories that attracted media coverage in New Zealand in 2010. Some of the major stories included the Canterbury earthquake, the Pike River mining disaster, the PSA vine disease affecting kiwifruit, proposals to allow mining in conservation areas, debates around lowering the blood alcohol limit and restricting tobacco. Many of the stories involved examining the scientific aspects and implications of these events. In general, the media was found to have provided good to excellent coverage of the science angles in most of these major stories.
1) The Darfield earthquake provided valuable insights into New Zealand's understanding of seismic hazards despite occurring on an unknown fault.
2) Research over decades has improved probabilistic seismic hazard assessments and led to building codes that incorporate learnings from previous quakes.
3) Modern seismic design philosophies focus on ductility and absorbing energy through plastic deformation to make buildings earthquake resilient.
The Australian public has continued to strongly support biotechnologies that provide health or environmental benefits, but their support for genetically modified (GM) foods has dropped slightly since 2007. Key findings from the survey include:
- The application most frequently considered risky was using genetic modification in pest control, while medical uses like stem cells were seen as most useful.
- Long-term evidence of safety and descriptive labelling were the top factors that could increase acceptance of GM foods among non-acceptors.
- Making plants drought resistant and able to grow in salty soils were seen as the most valuable objectives of genetic modification.
- Awareness of which crops are genetically modified in their own state was low.
Sea level rise, emerging issues paper, royal society of new zealand, sept 2010petergnz
Sea levels are rising due to global warming. In the past when the Earth was warmer, sea levels were several meters higher. Recent scientific studies project greater sea level rise than previous IPCC reports, ranging from 0.5 to over 1 meter by 2100. Uncertainty remains about how quickly polar ice sheets will melt and increase sea level rise. Thermal expansion of oceans as they warm also contributes to rising sea levels. Local risks may be increased in some areas depending on tectonic movements of the land.
The document discusses the relationship between regional weather changes in Australia and subsequent earthquakes in surrounding regions. It argues that regional weather changes can reliably predict earthquakes, acting as precursors by occurring 15-30 days before quakes. Specific weather events like cyclones and flooding are claimed to originate from geological processes and heat generation that also cause earthquakes. Methodology discusses how friction between tectonic plates generates heat, warming the ocean and forming weather systems like tropical cyclones, which then precede quakes in surrounding regions.
Emerging researchers - Science Media Centrepetergnz
This document provides tips for scientists on communicating their research to the public. It suggests engaging with the community by inviting people to labs, partnering with museums, starting blogs, and using social media. Good science communicators keep their messages simple, paint pictures with words, and speak in a way their audience can understand. They are also encouraged to summarize their research in 2 sentences and give journalists timely, straightforward information in a way that draws connections to everyday life.
The document discusses the long history of scientific engagement between the UK and New Zealand dating back to James Cook's voyage in 1769 which was sponsored by the Royal Society. It notes that over 240 years, around 30 Fellows of the Royal Society conducted work in New Zealand. While scientific communication between the two countries was strong in the 20th century, funding arrangements to support relationships have diminished. However, the new New Zealand government has prioritized science and research partnerships will be important for a small country like New Zealand to advance science.
This document outlines New Zealand's Marine Oil Spill Response Strategy. The strategy takes a three-tiered approach involving industry, regional councils, and national response led by Maritime New Zealand. It is based on risk assessments that evaluate the likelihood and potential consequences of oil spills. The strategy aims to minimize environmental impacts and protect human safety. Response capabilities are maintained through partnerships between government, industry and other organizations.
This document discusses the problems caused by dust ingestion in aircraft jet engines. Dust particles can cause erosion and corrosion damage to engine components. The authors propose using dust forecasting and modeling to quantify dust concentrations along flight paths to calculate dust mass ingested and inform maintenance procedures. Both experimental and theoretical approaches are needed to understand dust particle impacts and predict contaminated areas.
Ledgard A Greenhouse Gas 31 3 2010 Sl Finalpetergnz
This study examines the full life cycle carbon footprint of New Zealand lamb exported to and consumed in the UK. It finds the total footprint is 1.9 kg of CO2 equivalents for a 100g serving of lamb meat. On-farm emissions, primarily from methane from sheep digestion and nitrous oxide from soil, contribute 80% of the footprint. Meat processing accounts for 3% and transportation 5%. The consumer phase, including shopping and cooking, makes up the remaining 12%. While on-farm emissions are the most significant, all parts of the supply chain can take steps to reduce the footprint through improved efficiency and practices. The study provides a benchmark for the industry and opportunities to lower emissions through continuous improvement and strategic initiatives.
The Court of Appeal allowed AgResearch's appeal against a High Court decision that quashed ERMA's acceptance of four broad applications by AgResearch relating to importing, developing, and field testing genetically modified organisms. In three sentences, the Court of Appeal held that:
1) ERMA should be allowed to continue considering the applications and determine if they comply with statutory requirements, without being required to make that assessment prior to acceptance.
2) Judicial review was premature since ERMA's process involves scientific judgments it cannot be expected to make at the outset.
3) The appeal was allowed, the High Court's orders were quashed, and no costs were awarded.
Sir Ian Axford, a renowned New Zealand physicist and space scientist, passed away at the age of 84. He was a pioneer in the field of space plasma physics and made significant contributions to the understanding of the solar wind. Newspapers across New Zealand published obituaries remembering Sir Ian's illustrious career and impactful work.
Emerging Issues Paper Genetically Modified Foragespetergnz
Genetically modified forages show promise to improve productivity, drought resistance, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Traits under development include improved nutrient content and tolerance to drought. However, release of GM organisms raises concerns about impacts on identity and values. Risks include gene flow between GM and non-GM plants via pollen or seed dispersal. Benefits and risks depend more on the traits than the genetic modification technique. Ongoing research and discussion are needed to understand impacts.
Essential Tools for Modern PR Business .pptxPragencyuk
Discover the essential tools and strategies for modern PR business success. Learn how to craft compelling news releases, leverage press release sites and news wires, stay updated with PR news, and integrate effective PR practices to enhance your brand's visibility and credibility. Elevate your PR efforts with our comprehensive guide.
An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
El informe CPPI utiliza dos enfoques metodológicos diferentes para calcular la clasificación del índice: uno administrativo o técnico y otro estadístico, basado en análisis factorial (FA). Según los autores, esta dualidad pretende asegurar una clasificación que refleje con precisión el rendimiento real del puerto, a la vez que sea estadísticamente sólida. En esta edición del informe CPPI 2023, se han empleado los mismos enfoques metodológicos y se ha aplicado un método de agregación de clasificaciones para combinar los resultados de ambos enfoques y obtener una clasificación agregada.
Here is Gabe Whitley's response to my defamation lawsuit for him calling me a rapist and perjurer in court documents.
You have to read it to believe it, but after you read it, you won't believe it. And I included eight examples of defamatory statements/
Acolyte Episodes review (TV series) The Acolyte. Learn about the influence of the program on the Star Wars world, as well as new characters and story twists.
1. NZCCC Climate Brief
No. 1, November 2011
The Challenge of
Limiting Warming to
Two Degrees
Introduction What does “dangerous anthropogenic
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate interference” mean?
Change (UNFCCC) was agreed in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro. What exactly is meant by “dangerous” is not specifically
Article Two of this Treaty states that the ultimate objective defined, but three criteria have been set out in the UNFCCC
of this agreement is to stabilise atmospheric greenhouse to guide decision-makers:[1]
gas (GHG) concentrations at levels sufficient to “prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate • Allow “ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate
system.” By May 2011, 194 countries, including all major change”
emitters of GHGs, had ratified the UNFCCC.[1] • Ensure that “food production is not threatened” and
• Enable “economic development to proceed in a
In 2010, in Cancun, Mexico, those countries agreed that, to sustainable manner.”
meet that goal, global warming should not rise beyond 2°C
above pre-industrial levels. They also agreed to consider a Interpreting such broad criteria is not straightforward.
still tougher limit of 1.5°C in a future review.[2] Comprehensive research has refined climate change
projections for different amounts of GHG emissions, and
This New Zealand Climate Change Centre (NZCCC) Climate led to understanding of the impacts that climate change
Briefa explains the scientific basis behind that agreement, might have on ecosystems and society.
and backgrounds the various emission and concentration
targets used in climate change policy designed to achieve While quantifying the probability and severity of some
that 2°C limit. impacts for specific locations remains difficult, the urgency
for reducing GHG emissions has become well established.
The brief also sets out some of the possible consequences
of failing to hold warming to 2°C, and summarises the That’s partly because climate change impacts – and our
impacts we might expect under a range of other warming ability to adapt to them – vary around the globe. Warming
scenarios. It closes with a look at the extent of emissions above 2°C will not be “dangerous” for all species and
cuts needed to meet the Cancun goal, and the timelines systems, but neither will everybody and everything be
required to achieve them. “safe” if we keep below it.
Many regions will suffer heat waves and face greater
The two degree limit pressure on water supplies. At the same time more intense
Scientific assessments have shown that, if we are to limit rainfall and sea level rise will threaten the viability of low-
global warming to 2°C, we need a globally coordinated lying islands and deltas, even if warming is limited to 2°C.
programme to reduce our net GHG emissions to near-zero There could be some benefits from limited warming.
during the 21st century.[3] For instance, in cool or temperate places, there may be
Two degrees may not sound like a big increase, but it fewer cold-related deaths. Agriculture could enjoy longer
represents a rate of global climatic change unparalleled in growing seasons in temperate zones and supply of water
human history. Each increment of warming increasingly to hydro-electric power plants in New Zealand can increase
challenges our ability to adapt to it. Limiting warming in winter months.[4]
to 2°C is possible, but requires rapid and sustained A 2°C warming limit, then, is essentially a social and
international changes to energy production and political judgement that tries to balance the global
consumption patterns to cut emissions from transport, costs and technical feasibility of rapidly reducing GHG
industry, agriculture, forestry, and waste. emissions against the very diverse impacts of unmitigated
climate change across different societies, ecosystems, and
economies.[5-7]
a
NZCCC Climate Briefs are published by the NZCCC on behalf of its member organisations. The member organisations agree to the
preparation of a brief on a particular topic, but do not individually provide sign-off approval of the text. Approval for publication is provided
by the NZCCC Director, after considering scientific peer review comments on the draft text. This means any views expressed, and any
perceived errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors, and not of the member organisations of the NZCCC.
1
2. Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes
Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes
WATER
Additional people with
0.4 to 1.7 billion 1.0 to 2.0 billion 1.1 to 3.2 billion increased water stress
Increasing amphibian extinction About 20 to 30% species at increasingly high risk of extinction Major extinctions around the globe
ECOSYSTEMS Increased coral bleaching Most corals bleached Widespread coral mortality
Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon source, as:
~15%
Low latitudes
Decreases for some cereals All cereals decrease
FOOD Crop productivity
Increases for some cereals Decreases in some regions
Mid to high latitudes
COAST About 30% loss of coastal
wetlands
Additional people at risk of
0 to 3 million 2 to 15 million
Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases
HEALTH
Changed distribution of some disease vectors Substantial burden on health services
Local retreat of ice in Greenland Long term commitment to several metres
worldwide and inundation of low-lying
SINGULAR and West Antarctic of sea-level rise due to icesheet loss areas
EVENTS
Ecosystem changes due to weakening of the meridional overturning circulation
0.5 1.5 2 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5
Approximate global mean annual temperature change relative to pre-industrial levels (˚C)
Figure 1. Selected impacts for a range of temperature increases and associated climate changes for different systems and sectors. Edges of
boxes and placing of text indicate the range of temperature change to which the impacts relate. Arrows between boxes indicate increasing
levels of impacts between estimations. Other arrows indicate trends in impacts. Graphic based on Parry (2009)[8] and draws on information
from IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Working Group II Technical Summary (2007).[6]
In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Figure 1 alone doesn’t show which impacts should be
(IPCC) assessed the extensive international research that regarded as dangerous: rather, it shows that impacts
had studied the vulnerability of many sectors and services increase with rising temperatures and other climate
to climate change, so as to inform policy decisions on changes, and that different degrees of warming trigger
what degree of human interference might be considered different types of impacts.
dangerous to the climate system. The IPCC distilled Drawing a line between “dangerous”, and “not yet
potential impacts into five key “reasons for concern.” dangerous” is a social and political judgement that science
In 2007, its next assessment found that new research can only inform and support, not decide. Ultimately, the
meant those reasons had become stronger, because by choice must somehow accommodate diverse political,
then, scientists had more confidence in the evidence for social and cultural values around the world.
them. Some risks were projected to worsen, or to start
manifesting at lower temperature increases than first Drawing the temperature line
thought. The world has already warmed by more than 0.7°C since
Figure 1 shows a summary of climate change impacts the 1850s. Most of the observed increase in global average
projected for different sectors and systems around the temperatures since 1950 is very likely due to the observed
world. It shows that, while some sectors in some regions increase in anthropogenic (human-produced) GHG
might benefit from initial warming, many other critically concentrations.[9]
important aspects of human welfare, such as health and Furthermore our climate system is still adjusting to the
water supply, are likely to be negatively affected. Any changes in GHG concentrations that have already occurred.
warming above the current mean temperature is expected Even if these concentrations were not to increase any
to cause significant and, in some cases, irreversible damage further, the global average temperature is likely to increase
to some sensitive ecosystems. by a further 0.6°C during this century.[9]
2
3. 12
GtCO2eq a) Aggregated Kyoto GHGs 8 c) Surface Temperatures
11
10
Warming relative to pre-industrial (˚C)
7
RCP8.5 9
100
8 Defaults for scenarios 6
Radiative Forcing (W/m2)
80 7
5
6
60
5 4
40 4
3
3
20 2 2
RCP3-PD/2.6
1
0 1
0
-20 -1 0
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Figure 2. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, radiative forcing and projected change in global average surface temperature for two different
future pathways. Radiative forcing as shown here is the total warming effect exerted by increasing GHG concentrations, changes in aerosols
and other human influences on the global climate, past volcanic eruptions (seen as marked irregular negative spikes in the historical record),
and variation in output from the sun (resulting in small gradual changes as well as regular 11-year cycle). Data were kindly provided by Malte
Meinshausen, based on Meinshausen et al. (2011).[10]
Climate scientists are confident that further increases severity of associated impacts – the situations that they
in emissions of those gases will very likely lead to still might have to adapt to, and the types of impacts they wish
greater climate changes over the 21st century and to avoid.
beyond. However, because the global climate system is
very complex, it’s impossible to quantify a precise global What global GHG concentration limits
temperature increase for any given GHG concentration.
Rather, climate science can only specify a range of possible
warming to 2°C?
outcomes.[9] If GHG concentrations were to double from their pre-
industrial concentration of 275ppm CO2-equivalent
Climate scientists use sophisticated computer models
(CO2-eq) (see Box 1) to 550ppm CO2-eq, the average global
to make projections of future warming. The models
temperature would increase by about 3°C, within a likely
employ well-understood physical principles and climate
range from about 2°C to 4.5°C, although changes outside
observations, and can reproduce much of the climate
this range can’t be ruled out.[9, 14]
changes and regional differences already observed
during the 20th century. They allow scientists to project If warming of 2°C is considered the limit of acceptable
temperature increases and related changes in climate change, we would need to constrain GHG concentrations
over time, based on different scenarios in which we either to 450ppm CO2-eq as a best estimate. However, we
increase, curb or maintain our current GHG emissions. cannot say that the warming for such a limited increase
in GHG concentrations would be exactly 2°C, because
Figure 2 presents two contrasting scenarios of future
of the uncertainties of climate science. There’s a roughly
climate change:
50 per cent chance that the world will warm by more
The lower scenario depicts a world that takes strong action (and possibly much more[14]) than 2°C even if global GHG
to rapidly reduce GHG emissions (RCP3-PD/2.6), while the concentrations are stabilised at 450ppm CO2-eq.
higher scenario indicates a world that continues to use
Given this even chance, the “correct” GHG concentration
fossil fuels and inefficient production processes without
target depends on how much we want to avoid exceeding
any consideration of the associated GHG emissions and
the limit of 2°C. If we want to give ourselves an even
resulting climate change (RCP8.5).[10, 11]
chance to stay below 2°C, the best scientific estimates
These two scenarios have been selected from a wide range suggest 450ppm CO2-eq is a reasonable long-term target. If
of possible futures, and shouldn’t be seen as strict either/ we want more certainty – say, at least a 90 per cent chance
or options. Neither do they represent the extremes of a that temperatures will not increase beyond 2°C – then the
possible future – the future real world can lie between increase in GHG concentrations would have to be kept to
those two scenarios, but potentially even outside them.[12,13] well below 450ppm CO2-eq.
Climate scientists don’t prescribe which scenario is most
likely to play out. Instead, they advise decision makers of What can we control?
the likely impacts associated with each scenario, or any Humans can’t control the concentration of GHGs directly,
intermediate outcomes, and the decisions necessary to but we can control our GHG emissions. If we do nothing
realise any goal we wish to achieve. to constrain them, global GHG emissions are projected to
Temperature projections and associated climate changes increase by 20-90 per cent by 2030. That would produce
can be combined with information about resulting impacts at least a doubling – and possibly more than a tripling – of
such as those shown in Figure 1. This helps communities GHG concentrations in the atmosphere by the end of the
understand the degree of climate change – and the 21st century.[15]
3
4. Box 1. Carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2-eq) concentrations (based on IPCC 2007[3])
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) differ in their warming influence on the global climate system, due to their different ways of
absorbing and re-emitting heat near the Earth’s surface and their different lifetimes in the atmosphere. The same global
average warming effect could be caused either by higher concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) but lower concentrations of
other GHGs, or by lower concentrations of CO2 and higher concentrations of other GHGs.
To reduce confusion and complexity, scientists use the notion of “Carbon dioxide-equivalent” (CO2-eq) concentration to
describe the total warming effect exerted by all GHGs and aerosols arising from human activities.
Using this notion, the global concentration of all GHGs and aerosols before the industrial revolution (in the mid-18th century)
was about 275ppm CO2-eq. By 2005, this had risen to about 375ppm CO2-eq due to increasing emissions of CO2 from the
burning of fossil fuels and clearance of forests, and emissions of other gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and synthetic
gases from agriculture, industry and waste management, together with a cooling effect from aerosols.
By 2100, without dedicated efforts to reduce GHG emissions, the total concentration of all GHGs and aerosols is expected to
rise further to between 650 and more than 1500ppm CO2-eq, which would result in long-term warming of at least 3°C, but
possibly more than 6°C.
By comparison, GHG concentrations would have to be limited to about 450ppm CO2-eq to give an even chance of global
warming not exceeding 2°C in the long term.
CO2 is removed only very slowly from the atmosphere transport systems, and urban settlements. This capital
– once atmospheric concentrations increase above infrastructure would have to be retired prematurely or
natural levels, it takes a very long time for them to drop would require wholesale structural changes to achieve the
again. Without measures to actively remove it, such necessary rapid emissions reductions later on.[18-23]
as afforestation, 20 per cent or more of the rise in CO2 One way to understand the necessary scale and urgency
concentrations from human activities will still remain in a of emissions reductions, while retaining some flexibility
thousand years’ time. around their timing, is through the concept of cumulative
As long as the net emissions of CO2 and other very emissions targets (see Box 2).
long-lived GHGs remain significantly above zero,
their concentrations will continue to increase. To stop Global issue, regional response
this, emissions will need to peak and then decline to Cutting our collective global emissions by 50 per cent by
levels much lower than today’s (see Figure 2 and the 2050 is a considerable challenge. Furthermore, meeting
emissions for scenario RCP3-PD/2.6). The sooner that it isn’t simply a matter of all countries reducing their
peak and decline happens, the lower the level at which emissions by the same amount.
concentrations will ultimately stabilise.
To make reductions of this magnitude, all major emitters
What, by how much and by when? will have to play some part, as the top 20 emitters produce
almost 80 per cent of total global emissions.[28]
If we want to hold GHG concentrations to 450ppm CO2-eq
or less, global emissions would need to peak by about The UNFCCC stipulates that developed countries should
2020, then fall to much lower levels over subsequent take the lead in reducing emissions, but targets and
decades. However, the timing of the emissions peak is not expectations vary greatly: to what extent do we hold
absolutely fixed, as it depends on the cost and availability countries responsible for historical emissions, or their future
of future technologies, including whether CO2 can be emissions growth? Should we consider their economic
actively removed from the atmosphere.[16] Most recent status? Or make a special case of the unique costs of, and
studies agree that global net emissions would need to fall opportunities for, the emissions reductions they face,
to around 50 per cent or less of 2000 levels before 2060, depending on the structure of their economies and their
and to much lower levels again by 2100.[16, 17] access to renewable energy resources?
Any delay in global emissions reductions would demand Some allocation mechanisms take these different
even more rapid – and drastic – global emissions perspectives into account. While they differ in details, they
reductions later to achieve the same long-term outcome. If come to a relatively robust agreement on some key points.
global emissions peak by 2020, emissions would then need For instance, to stabilise global GHG concentrations at
to be reduced by about three per cent a year, every year, about 450ppm CO2-eq by 2100:[15, 29]
for the next several decades. If global emissions peak later, • Developed countries would need to reduce their
in 2030, they would then have to be reduced even more collective emissions by 25-40 per cent below 1990
rapidly to meet the same long-term goal (see Box 2). levels by 2020, and by 80-95 per cent by 2050
While putting off emissions cuts might seem to save • Developing countries would need to reduce their
money in the short term, it increases costs in the future up collective emissions by 15-30 per cent below what
to a point where those costs could become prohibitive. they would otherwise have been in 2020.
This is mainly because delays would encourage more However, the distinction between “developed” and
capital investment – in the order of tens of trillions of US “developing” countries is simplistic, given the wide diversity
dollars over the next two decades – in long-lived carbon- of economic conditions and technological development
intensive infrastructure such as power plants and networks, among developing countries. If the 2°C goal is to be met,
4
5. major emerging economies will need to make substantial As of 2011, pledges to reduce emissions by 2020 from
cuts in their emissions. The poorest countries, on the other developed countries range from about -10 to -15 per
hand, will have very little to contribute. cent below 1990 levels. Some developed countries have
In general, the less one group of countries does to reduce set aspirational goals for 2050: the largest reduction is 80
its emissions – or the later they do it – the more other per cent, but many are weaker. Pledged reductions from
countries would have to do to reduce theirs (or the sooner developing countries are more difficult to quantify, since
they must begin) to achieve the same long-term outcome. they are not expressed in absolute terms, but relative to
Sharing responsibility for reducing emissions fairly amongst economic and emissions growth that would occur in the
individual countries therefore becomes a question of absence of climate policies.[30, 31]
ethics, economics and politics, as well as social and Nevertheless, achievement of all these current pledges
technological development. combined would still allow expected global average
Despite international agreement on a target of no more warming to exceed 3°C above pre-industrial levels in the
than 2°C of warming, pledges of emissions reductions to long term.[30, 31]
date fall well short of what science estimates is needed. While opportunities to limit warming to 2°C or less still
exist, they are rapidly diminishing.[16]
Box 2. Cumulative emissions targets
Some of today’s CO2 emissions will still be contributing to warming in a thousand years’ time. This is because, contrary to other
GHGs, CO2 does not disappear entirely, but is merely redistributed over time between the atmosphere, ocean, vegetation
and soils. This persistence means that, if we are only concerned about long-term warming, it doesn’t matter so much when
emissions occur – what matters is the total quantity of CO2 we can emit over the next few decades (to about 2050 or 2060)
without pushing GHG concentrations to a level where total warming would eventually exceed 2°C.[24]
This provides a new perspective on the challenge for global climate policy, which can inform the setting of emissions targets
for specific years.
Humans can emit about another 1000 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 between 2000 and 2050 to have a good chance (about 75 per
cent) of limiting long-term global average warming to 2°C.[25] About 350 Gt of CO2 have already been emitted during the
first decade of the 21st century, and the current emissions rate is about 34-35 Gt CO2 per year.[26] This means that, at current
emissions rates, the remaining global emissions budget of 650 Gt CO2 would be exhausted within the next 20 years. After that,
it would have to drop to – and remain at – zero to retain the same chance of holding warming to no more than 2°C. Higher
cumulative CO2 emissions make it more likely this level of warming will be exceeded.
Cumulative emissions targets cannot apply to shorter-lived gases such as methane, but demonstrate the massive overall
reduction in global CO2 emissions needed if the world wishes to limit the risks of warming beyond 2°C. They also show us that
we still have choices: the world can continue for another short while at its current emissions rates, but would then have to
make extremely rapid reductions, or it could initiate emissions reductions earlier and enable a smoother transition to a low-
carbon future in the long-term (Figure 3).
70.00 unmitigated emissions
(SRES A2 scenario)
60.00
2030
global annual CO2 emissions (Gt)
50.00 2025
2020 -18%
2015 -9.7%
40.00 -5.3%
2010
-2.8%
30.00 -1.3%
20.00
10.00
0.00
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
-10.00 Year
-20.00
Figure 3. Alternative scenarios for global CO2 emissions to 2050. The percentage figures indicate the amount (relative to 1990) by which
global emissions would need to be reduced, per year, every year, after their peak to remain within the same cumulative emissions budget.
All scenarios meet the same cumulative emissions budget of 1445 Gt CO2 between 2000 and 2050, which gives a roughly 50/50 chance
of limiting long-term temperature increase to 2°C.[25] Scenarios that peak earlier could afford a more gradual reduction in emissions later;
scenarios that delay emissions reductions in the near term would require a much more rapid and eventually infeasible global reduction
in emissions after 2030 to achieve the same long-term outcome. Based on Meinshausen et al. (2009)[25], historical emissions data from
Friedlingstein et al. (2010)[26], future unmitigated emissions from IPCC (2000).[27]
5
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