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Q3 2019 | Austin Office | Research & Forecast Report
1. Research &
Forecast Report
AUSTIN | OFFICE
Q3 2019
Kaitlin Holm Research and Marketing Coordinator | Austin
Boots On The Ground Commentary by Volney Campbell
Our “Boots on the Ground” viewpoint is the voice of our experts, who
have broken down the market data and compared it to what they are
seeing for themselves. This is their take on what the numbers actually
mean for the Austin office market.
In traveling around the country on business it seems if almost
everyone is at least familiar with Austin and many know a great
deal about the city and its growth. So well published has our
meteoric rise been from a small government city 30 years ago, to
approaching tier one status as a technology hub, I guess I should
not be surprised. Recently, more questions are surfacing about
where I see Austin in the future and is it due for a setback?
It’s not hard to find locals that think the Austin they knew is already
a relic of the past. Gone are the empty freeways at rush hour, and
their favorite music venue has recently closed, so to them Austin
will never be the same. News Flash: every city evolves. They all
change and morph as technology, jobs and the people that define
the city change. Even though I wish traffic was better, I believe
Austin has a great future ahead.
Demographers believe that Austin will top 3 million people in the
SMSA by 2027, led by enormous growth in cutting-edge S.T.E.M.
jobs that will shape our country’s future. The unfounded fear
that somehow Austin is poised for a major setback seems hard
to imagine, despite large development plans currently underway.
Employers go where they can find talent and if the talent is
not there currently, can they attract it? According to the Austin
Chamber of Commerce, Austin has one of the highest percentages
of relocating employees whose company is moving to Austin,
sometimes it is 70% or above, which is a rare number in their
experience. Additionally, with approximately 145 people moving to
Austin every day, clearly it can attract talent as well as relocate it.
Employers want a well-educated workforce, 49.8% of Austin’s
workforce has a bachelor’s degree or higher and is a city with the
pull to continue to attract similar talent in the future.
Construction continues as tech companies
keep taking space in Austin
Future Forecast
Historically, Austin’s major tech employers have included the likes
of Dell, AMD, Cirrus Logic, Samsung and Motorola; however, in the
last few years the expansions from Google, Facebook, Amazon/
Whole Foods, Oracle, Apple and Indeed have changed the landscape
in Austin for the foreseeable future. All six groups have placed
major bets on Austin totaling over 5,000,000 square feet of space
leased indicating that this Austin run is not over and may not even
be in the final innings of the game. Yes, Austin will experience
growing pains, but the investment in our city paints a pretty nice
picture of the future. Even if it will not be the same as it was.
By The Numbers - Austin’s Office Market
TOTAL INVENTORY
59.2M SF
TOTAL VACANCY
11.5%
Q3 NET ABSORPTION
-1,117,048 SF
YTD NET ABSORPTION
-533,787 SF
TOTAL UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
5.74M SF
TOTAL PRE-LEASED
2.61M SF
CBD CLASS A
$60.57as tracked by Colliers
SUBURBAN CLASS A
$37.83
AVERAGE
RATE/SF
$35.38
*Rates inclusive of estimated operating expenses.
2. 2
Austin Office Overview
In the third quarter of 2019, Austin’s office market reported
1,117,048 SF of negative net absorption. The majority of the negative
absorption occurred in Class A buildings with a total of 1,250,402
SF of negative net absorption. Class B buildings in Austin posted
180,024 SF of positive net absorption, while Class C properties
posted 46,670 SF of negative net absorption.
Currently, 5,746,652 SF of office space is under construction and
2,613,396 SF of that is pre-leased. The fourth quarter of 2019
is expected to see 1,225,777 SF of deliveries and 824,576 SF of
that is pre-leased. One of the buildings set to deliver in the fourth
quarter of 2019 is Domain 12. The entire 320,102 SF building was
100% leased by Facebook in September 2018.
The Foundry in the East submarket was the largest building to
deliver in the third quarter. This 75,369 SF building delivered in
August and is 89.1% leased. One of the tenants that pre-leased at
The Foundry is DPR Construction, leasing 28,000 square feet. The
final quarter of 2019 is expected to see eighteen new buildings
come online.
The citywide average rental rate decreased over the quarter from
$35.72 per SF in Q2 2019 to $35.38 per SF in Q3 2019. Class A
rental rates in Austin’s CBD slid by 6.2% over the quarter to $49.47
per SF up from $52.78 per SF in the second quarter of 2019. The
overall suburban Class A rental rate also fell, from $37.97 per SF to
$37.83 per SF, over the quarter.
In September, PwC and Urban Land Institute announced that
Austin has been ranked the best market for real estate investment
in 2020. Austin ranked first in front of Raleigh-Durham, Nashville,
Charlotte, Boston and even beat out the current number one
market, Dallas/Fort Worth. According to the study from PwC
and the Urban Land Institute, Austin will be a solid “buy” market
for industrial, office and multifamily properties. The report also
noted that the population growth rate of Austin is three times the
population growth rate of the United States.
Vacancy & Availability
Austin’s citywide vacancy rate increased from 9.3% in the second
quarter of 2019 to 11.5% in the third quarter of 2019. The Southeast
submarket’s Class A vacancy rate reported that more than 355,000
square feet became available in the third quarter, which is why they
had the largest jump in vacancy moving from 7.6% in Q2 2019 to
34.6% in Q3 2019. This could be caused in part by 40,000 square
feet being vacated at 5202 East Ben White Boulevard.
The largest decline in vacancy happened in the Class B Northeast
submarket, where the rate decreased from 28.4% to 23.1%, which
is due to over 57,000 square feet being taken off the market.
Overall suburban vacancy increased quarter over quarter from
9.3% in Q2 2019 to 11.5% in Q3 2019, while the CBD’s vacancy rate
rose marginally over the quarter from 5.7% to 5.8%.
2 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q3 2019 | Office | Colliers International
Market Indicators
Relative to prior period
Annual
Change
Quarterly
Change
Quarterly
Forecast*
VACANCY
NET ABSORPTION
NEW CONSTRUCTION
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
*Projected
Summary Statistics
Austin Office Market Q3 2018 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
Vacancy Rate 10.2% 9.3% 11.5%
Net Absorption
(Million Square Feet)
.395 .565 -1.11
New Construction
(Million Square Feet)
.346 2.46 .781
Under Construction
(Million Square Feet)
3.98 5.29 5.75
Class A Vacancy Rate
CBD
Suburban
6.0%
11.0%
5.9%
8.9%
6.2%
14.8%
Gross Asking Rents
Per Square Foot Per Year
Average $35.09 $35.72 $35.38
CBD Class A $50.82 $52.78 $49.47
Suburban Class A $36.92 $37.97 $37.83
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy
ANNUAL ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY, AND VACANCY
3. $0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
CBD Rents Suburban Rents
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
CBD Vacancy Suburban Vacancy
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy
Absorption & Demand
Austin’s office market posted 1,117,048 square feet of negative net
absorption in Q3 2019. Only six submarkets experienced positive
absorption over the quarter, including Cedar Park, East, Far
Northwest, Northeast, South and Southwest.
A majority of the negative net absorption over the quarter occurred
in the Class A Northwest submarket, totaling 1,218,514 square feet
of negative absorption. In August, a 30,870 square foot sublease
space was put on the market at Riata Corporate Park 7 and was
part of the reason the submarket’s net absorption number dropped
quite a bit. In all, 249,809 square feet became available in the Class
A Northwest submarket.
The Southwest submarket helped bring the absorption number
closer to zero with 76,343 square feet of positive net absorption.
The majority of the absorption in the Southwest submarket
happened in Class A space and can be partially attributed to Aeglea
BioTherapeutics, Inc moving into their 30,026 square feet space at
Las Cimas III (805 Las Cimas Parkway).
The Austin market recorded thirty-eight leases over 10,000 square
feet signed in the third quarter with some big block leases leading
the way. Austin Municipal Court signed their 131,362 square foot
lease at the Bergstrom Tech Center (6800 Burleson Road), while
Abbott Laboratories inked their 130,152 square foot space in Seven
Oaks West (8701 FM 2244).
Rental Rates
According to CoStar, our data provider, Austin’s citywide average
rental rate decreased 0.95% over the quarter from $35.72 per SF
to $35.38 per SF.
The highest rates across the Austin office market in the third
quarter were in East Class A buildings where net rental rates
averaged $50.02 per SF. Rental rates were also high in the CBD
and South submarkets where Class A rental rates reached $49.47
per SF and $42.96 per SF, respectively.
Citywide Class B rental rates rose slightly in Q3 2019 to $31.54
per SF from $31.23 per SF in Q2 2019. CBD Class B rental rates
increased by 2.45% over the quarter from $48.15 per SF to $49.33
per SF in Q3 2019.
3 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q3 2019 | Office | Colliers International
UNEMPLOYMENT 8/18 8/19
AUSTIN 3.1% 2.8%
TEXAS 4.0% 3.7%
U.S. 3.9% 3.8%
JOB GROWTH
Annual
Change
# of Jobs
Added
AUSTIN 2.1% 22.2K
TEXAS 2.3% 292.2K
U.S. 1.4% 2.1M
CBD vs. Suburban
CLASS A OFFICE VACANCY
CLASS A OFFICE RENTS
Job Growth & Unemployment
(not seasonally adjusted)
QUARTERLY ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY, AND VACANCY
4. 44 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q3 2019 | Office | Colliers International
Q3 2019 Top Office Lease Transactions
BUILDING ADDRESS SUBMARKET SF TENANT LEASE DATE
6800 Burleson Rd Southeast 131,362 Austin Municipal Court Jul-19
8701 FM 2244 Southwest 130,152 Abbott Laboratories Jul-19
11815 Alterra Pky North/Domain 107,377 Amazon Sep-19
2433 Ridgepoint Dr Northeast 62,299 Unknown Sep-19
10900 Stonelake Blvd Northwest 42,429 WeWork Aug-19
98 San Jacinto Blvd CBD 40,207 Unknown2
Aug-19
5918 Courtyard Dr W Northwest 27,887 Brigham Resources Jul-19
13620 Ranch Road 620 N Cedar Park 27,326 Unknown Sep-19
1703 W 5th St West Central 27,155 Erickson2
Aug-19
1501 S Mo Pac Expy Southwest 25,369 Germer PLLC Aug-19
3708 Woodbury Dr South 24,982 Unknown Sep-19
401 Congress Ave CBD 23,824 PIMCO Jul-19
11305 Four Points Dr Far Northwest 21,765 Unknown Aug-19
206 E 9th St CBD 20,939 Shiseido Aug-19
5301 Southwest Pky Southwest 20,593 Kony, Inc Jul-19
13640 Briarwick Dr Far Northwest 20,578 Unknown2
Sep-19
11501 Domain Dr North/Domain 20,041 Unknown2
Sep-19
4301 Westbank Dr Southwest 19,047 Entercom Communications Corp. Jul-19
3300 Duval Rd Northwest 17,002 Archer Systems1
Aug-19
Leasing Activity
Austin’s office market recorded 1,064,121 SF of leasing activity in Q3 2019. Major transactions this quarter included Austin Municipal Court
leasing 131,362 SF at Bergstrom Tech Center, Building 312 (6800 Burleson Road) and Abbott Laboratories taking all 130,152 SF at Seven
Oaks West (8701 FM 2244), which is set to deliver in December of 2020.
1
Renewal 2
Sublease
Q3 2019 Significant Sales Transactions – (100,000 SF or greater)
BUILDING ADDRESS SUBMARKET RBA (SF) YEAR BUILT BUYER SELLER SALE PRICE $/SF CLOSED
10415-10431 Morado Cir1
Northwest 318,217 1993
Starwood Property
Trust
Vanderbilt Partners,
True North Mgmt
Group
Undisclosed N/A Jul-19
221 W 6th St CBD 389,503 1974 CIM Group
Lincoln Property Co,
Goldman Sachs
Undisclosed N/A Aug-19
1801 E 6th St2
East 135,000 2018 AEW Capital
Riverside Resources
Corp
$44,400,000.00 $328.89 Aug-19
1701 Directors Blvd Southeast 154,939 1984 OakPoint SA Pension Trust Undisclosed N/A Aug-19
6405 Bridge Point Pkwy2
Northwest 131,200 1985 PM Realty Group John Roiko $34,500,000.00 $262.96 Aug-19
10721 Domain Dr2
North/Domain 309,883 2018 iStar Financial
Stonelake Cap Prtnrs,
HPI Real Estate
$128,900,000.00 $415.96 Aug-19
901 E 6th St East 129,444 2018 Clarion Partners Lionstone Investments Undisclosed N/A Sep-19
Sales Activity
Austin’s office investment sales activity included eleven building transactions, with one portfolio transaction, which consisted of buildings I
-V at the Campus at Arboretum. In August, CIM Group purchased Chase Tower (221 West 6th Street) located in the CBD; the building was
97% leased at the time of the purchase. Domain Tower was the most expensive purchase of the quarter with an approximate sale price of
$128,900,000 or $415.96 per square foot. iStar Financial purchased the 309,883 square foot building in August.
Sources: CoStar and Real Capital Analytics
1
Part of a portfolio 2
Approximate Sale Price
5. 5 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q3 2019 | Office | Colliers International
This is placeholder text. Place your text here.
Chart Title–One Line
Chart Title
SUBHEAD 1 SUBHEAD 1 SUBHEAD 1 SUBHEAD 1
Body
INVENTORY DIRECT VACANCY
SUBLEASE
VACANCY
VACANCY VACANCY RATE (%)
NET ABSORPTION
(SF)
RENTAL
RATE
CLASS
# OF
BLDGS
TOTAL (SF) (SF)
RATE
(%)
(SF)
RATE
(%)
TOTAL
(SF)
Q3-2019 Q2-2019 Q3-2019 Q2-2019
AVG ($/
SF)
CBD
A 32 8,149,245 439,542 5.4% 67,849 0.8% 507,391 6.2% 5.9% -23,792 4,091 $49.47
B 35 2,867,245 119,424 4.2% 40,869 1.4% 160,293 5.6% 5.2% -10,714 -20,588 $49.33
C 10 631,980 9,702 1.5% 0 0.0% 9,702 1.5% 4.5% 18,596 3,465 $26.38
Total 77 11,648,470 568,668 4.9% 108,718 0.9% 677,386 5.8% 5.7% -15,910 -13,032 $48.83
SUBURBAN
A 202 23,497,834 3,191,696 13.6% 290,786 1.2% 3,482,482 14.8% 8.9% -1,226,610 426,209 $37.83
B 411 21,250,310 2,023,694 9.5% 323,373 1.5% 2,347,067 11.0% 12.0% 190,738 170,077 $30.19
C 61 2,717,065 276,402 10.2% 3,668 0.1% 280,070 10.3% 7.9% -65,266 -17,416 $27.90
Total 674 47,465,209 5,491,792 11.6% 617,827 1.3% 6,109,619 12.9% 10.2% -1,101,138 578,870 $33.77
OVERALL
A 234 31,647,079 3,631,238 11.5% 358,635 1.1% 3,989,873 12.6% 8.1% -1,250,402 430,300 $39.50
B 446 24,117,555 2,143,118 8.9% 364,242 1.5% 2,507,360 10.4% 11.2% 180,024 149,489 $31.54
C 71 3,349,045 286,104 8.5% 3,668 0.1% 289,772 8.7% 7.3% -46,670 -13,951 $27.80
Total 751 59,113,679 6,060,460 10.3% 726,545 1.2% 6,787,005 11.5% 9.3% -1,117,048 565,838 $35.38
INVENTORY
DIRECT
VACANCY
SUBLEASE
VACANCY
VACANCY VACANCY RATE (%) NET ABSORPTION (SF)
RENTAL
RATE
CLASS
# OF
BLDGS
TOTAL (SF) (SF)
RATE
(%)
(SF)
RATE
(%)
TOTAL
(SF)
Q3-2019 Q2-2019 Q3-2019 Q2-2019
AVG ($/
SF)
CEDAR PARK
A 6 555,222 69,515 12.5% 0 0.0% 69,515 12.5% 12.5% 0 19,376 $32.51
B 8 348,822 20,563 5.9% 9,405 2.7% 29,968 8.6% 8.6% 36 1,859 $27.10
Total 14 904,044 90,078 10.0% 9,405 1.0% 99,483 11.0% 11.0% 36 21,235 $31.02
CENTRAL .
A 6 640,288 21,230 3.3% 19,891 3.1% 41,121 6.4% 5.8% -4,188 -856 $38.91
B 40 2,166,333 240,353 11.1% 11,773 0.5% 252,126 11.6% 11.0% -14,885 27,157 $31.63
C 14 823,232 105,659 12.8% 900 0.1% 106,559 12.9% 4.9% -65,846 10,557 $30.98
Total 60 3,629,853 367,242 10.1% 32,564 0.9% 399,806 11.0% 8.7% -84,919 36,858 $31.77
EAST
A 3 222,579 5,137 2.3% 0 0.0% 5,137 2.3% 7.4% 11,388 43 $50.02
B 18 1,113,820 98,349 8.8% 0 0.0% 98,349 8.8% 11.1% 25,523 -7,385 $36.07
C 7 271,235 17,417 6.4% 2,768 1.0% 20,185 7.4% 5.2% -6,118 9,319 $37.78
Total 28 1,607,634 120,903 7.5% 2,768 0.2% 123,671 7.7% 9.6% 30,793 1,977 $37.70
FAR NORTHEAST
B 3 94,996 21,046 22.2% 350 0.4% 21,396 22.5% 19.7% -2,666 640 $26.03
Total 3 94,996 21,046 22.2% 350 0.4% 21,396 22.5% 19.7% -2,666 640 $26.03
FAR NORTHWEST
A 13 1,889,243 237,980 12.6% 20,578 1.1% 258,558 13.7% 14.5% 15,969 66,898 $33.76
B 12 775,336 59,353 7.7% 2,315 0.3% 61,668 8.0% 8.4% 3,506 5,167 $27.40
C 2 77,864 1,180 1.5% 0 0.0% 1,180 1.5% 1.5% 0 0 $22.48
Total 27 2,742,443 298,513 10.9% 22,893 0.8% 321,406 11.7% 12.4% 19,475 72,065 $32.75
Austin Suburban Office Market Summary
Austin Office Market Summary (CBD, Suburban, & Overall)
7. 7 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q3 2019 | Office | Colliers International
Office Development Pipeline
5,746,652 square feet of office space was under construction during Q3 2019. Three buildings delivered in Q3, with the largest being
Foundry (310 Comal Street). This 75,369 square foot building was 92.1% leased at delivery and 27,775 SF of that will be occupied by DPR
Construction. 45% of all space under construction is already pre-leased and over a million square feet is set to deliver before 2020.
BUILDING NAME ADDRESS SUBMARKET SF
PRE-
LEASED
DEVELOPER
EST.
DELIVERY
Offices At Saltillo 901 E 5th St East 150,000 100.0% Endeavor Real Estate Group Oct-19
Domain Place 10727 Domain Dr North/Domain 38,638 90.6% Stonelake Capital Partners Oct-19
2050 Doublecreek Dr 2050 Doublecreek Dr Round Rock 16,000 0.0% Unknown Oct-19
Davenport 360 6001 Bold Ruler Way Southwest 35,551 50.1% Unknown Oct-19
Wesco 8656 W State Highway 71 Southwest 21,835 51.2% Unknown Oct-19
CityView 1007 S Congress Ave South 50,000 100.0% Turnbridge Equities Nov-19
Building 3 1009 S Congress Ave South 30,468 38.0% Endeavor Real Estate Group Nov-19
Sunset Ridge at Southwest Parkway 8413 Southwest Pky Southwest 197,300 0.0% Unknown Nov-19
1320 Arrow Point Dr - 1 1320 Arrow Point Dr Cedar Park 16,300 0.0% Unknown Dec-19
1320 Arrow Point Dr - 2 1320 Arrow Point Dr Cedar Park 15,300 0.0% Unknown Dec-19
1320 Arrow Point Dr - 3 1320 Arrow Point Dr Cedar Park 12,690 0.0% Unknown Dec-19
WestPark Professional- Building 4 120 S Lakeline Blvd Cedar Park 11,182 0.0% Unknown Dec-19
WestPark Professional Building 3 120 S Lakeline Blvd Cedar Park 11,182 0.0% Unknown Dec-19
WestPark Professional Building 2 120 S Lakeline Blvd Cedar Park 10,902 0.0% Unknown Dec-19
East6 2010 E 6th St East 115,000 100.0% AQUILA Commercial Dec-19
Domain 12 11800 Alterra Pky North/Domain 320,102 100.0% TIER REIT, Inc. Dec-19
Junior League of Austin 5334 Bluffstone Ln Northwest 48,000 100.0% Unknown Dec-19
Rollingwood Town Center Phase III 2500 Bee Caves Rd Southwest 128,000 51.5% Endeavor Real Estate Group Dec-19
618 Tillery St 618 Tillery St East 187,155 0.7% Unknown Jan-20
Bldg 3 1601 E Pflugerville Pky Far Northeast 38,500 0.0% Unknown Jan-20
Domain 10 11815 Alterra Pky North/Domain 299,673 100.0% Endeavor Real Estate Group Jan-20
Domain W4 11501 Rock Rose Blvd North/Domain 16,327 65.0% Endeavor Real Estate Group Jan-20
Parmer 4.1 Parmer 4.1 Northeast 196,000 3.6% Trammell Crow Company Jan-20
Parmer Sector 4.2 Parmer 4.2 Northeast 118,000 4.5% Trammell Crow Company Jan-20
Creekside 4001 W Parmer Ln Northwest 35,056 77.3% Unknown Jan-20
The Grove 1 4301 Bull Creek Rd West Central 134,114 0.0% Castletop Capital Jan-20
Highland 3 523 E Highland Blvd Central 250,000 100.0% Unknown Feb-20
Paloma Ridge Building C 13620 Ranch Road 620 N Far Northwest 165,714 16.5% Unknown Feb-20
The Grove 2 2117 Perseverance Dr West Central 134,114 65.0% Castletop Capital Feb-20
1141 Shady Ln 1141 Shady Ln East 64,674 18.2% Bercy Chen Studio LP Mar-20
10029 Manchaca Rd 10029 Manchaca Rd South 30,000 0.0% Unknown Mar-20
Building E 3601 S Congress Ave South 42,500 0.0% Unknown Apr-20
Building 3 9225 Bee Caves Rd Southwest 30,077 100.0% Unknown Apr-20
Building III 7717 Southwest Pky Southwest 20,858 100.0% Unknown Apr-20
Creekside at the Hills 4609 Bee Caves Rd Southwest 31,460 58.5% Bogle Family Realty LLLP May-20
Bouldin Creek 2043 S Lamar Blvd South 161,310 11.7% Unknown Jun-20
Foundry II 1600 E 4th St East 161,436 3.1% Cielo Property Group Jul-20
Seven Oaks 8701 FM 2244 Southwest 153,405 0.0% Unknown Jul-20
1221 S Congress Ave 1221 S Congress Ave South 103,000 21.0% Endeavor Real Estate Group Aug-20
405 Colorado 405 Colorado St CBD 197,056 38.6% Brandywine Realty Trust Oct-20
826 Houston St 826 Houston St Central 22,241 0.0% Central Austin Management Group Oct-20
The Overlook at Lakeway 2909 Flintrock Trce Southwest 37,432 3.2% Unknown Nov-20
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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTORS REPRESENTED
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more than 20 years, our experienced leadership team, owning more than 40% of our
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