13. Video, Job Loss/Gain & GDP 4th Quarter GDP: 3.2% (Advanced Estimate) Source: CNBC, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Wall Street Journal Video & Economic Summary Videos start with 15 sec commercial The state of the U.S. labor market, ( 4 min 21 sec) with Jonas Prising, Manpower & CNBC's Steve Liesman. (Feb 4, 2011) Tracking Job Growth 2011 The United States needs to add ~125,000 jobs, on average/month (on the Household survey) to keep the unemployment rate from increasing(because the population of the United States typically increased by ~1.5 million workers every year due to population growth & immigration). Why did the Unemployment drop by 0.4% when only 36,000 jobs were added? The unemployment rate is calculated on a different survey (household survey) than the payroll survey (which showed 36,00 jobs were added). Two Factors Contributing to the Unemployment Rate Change: 1. Possible Weather Issues: The severe weather likely explains much, if not all, the weakness in payrolls. The BLS reports 886,000 people unable to work because of the weather in Jan, compared to the 417,000 average for the month. This is taken from the household survey and is unadjusted so you can’t just add it to the headline payroll number, but it clearly signals the snows affected the data. Expect a rebound in Feb. –Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics (Wall Street Journal) 2. Updated Annual Population Data: The Labor Department — using updated Census Bureau data — determined that its 2010 estimates of the size of the population had been 347,000 too high, its estimates of overall employment in 2010 had been 472,000 too high and that its estimates of people who were unemployed or not in the labor force were also off (Wall Street Journal) Click to Play 2009 2010 Components of GDP 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Consumers -0.34% -1.12% 1.41% 0.69% 1.33% 1.54% 1.67% 3.04% (Personal Consumption) *Businesses -6.80% -2.30% 1.22% 2.70% 3.04% 2.88% 1.80% -3.20% (Gross Private Domestic Investment) Net Exports (Exports-Imports) 2.88% 1.47% -1.37% 1.90% -0.31% -3.50% -1.70% 3.44% Government -0.61% 1.24% 0.33% -0.28% -0.32% 0.80% 0.79% -0.11% Total GDP -4.90% -7.00% 1.60% 5.00% 3.70% 1.72% 2.56% 3.17% *Inventories -1.09% -1.03% 1.10% 2.83% 2.64% 0.82% 1.61% -3.70% component of Business
14. US Employment Situation Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by total non farm payroll employment June 2009 Recession Officially Ended July 2009 Temp Penetration Trend Turns Positive Oct 2009 1 st Job Growth >100,000 (Household Survey) Nov 2009 1 st Job Growth (Payroll Survey) Temp Employment Temporary help services lost 11,400 jobs. Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important? “ Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead nonfarm employment by three months when the economy is emerging from a recession and by six months during periods of normal economic growth . ” American Staffing Association Temp Penetration Rate: 1.68% - .01% Job Loss/Gain: +36,000 Jobs Unemployment Rate: 9.0% -0.4% Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or higher Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association Job Loses Change from Previous Month Construction -32,000 Government -14,000 Financial Activities -10,000 Leisure & Hospitality -3,000 Job Gains Change from Previous Month Manufacturing 49,000 Professional & Business Services 31,000 Retail Trade 27,500 Education & Health Services 13,000 - Education -100 - Healthcare 10,600 - Social Assistance 2,300 Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 4.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.8% 4.2% Nonfarm Payroll – Job Growth Details Jobs Added/Lost Private Sector 50,000 Government Sector -14,000 Total 36,000
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17. User Login Report Account Users UserName User Email Authority Level Job Posting Access RDB Access Last Logged In Date Ali Williams [email_address] Manager Yes Yes 12/03/2008 Recruiter [email_address] Manager Yes Yes 02/07/2011 Sally May [email_address] Manager Yes Yes 01/01/1970