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SPECIAL THANKS
PRESENTING SPONSOR
GOLD SPONSOR
BRONZE SPONSOR
The mission of the Saratoga County
Prosperity Partnership shall be to
secure sustainable jobs and capital
investment by attracting new business
to the County and retaining existing
businesses by assisting them to grow.
Mission of the Saratoga Partnership
PENNY HILL
Dean of Economic Development
and Workforce Initiatives
Board of Directors
HUDSON VALLEY COMMUNITY COLLEGE
Sixty year history of working with manufacturing industry
• Model manufacturing degree programs and
apprenticeships
• Offering incentives to provide customized training
for manufacturers
• Manufacturing Industry Feedback and
Partnership Roundtable – May 10
• Manufacturing Bootcamp for entry level work
• Gene F. Haas Center for Advanced Manufacturing
Skills (CAMS)
MANUFACTURING
IN SARATOGA COUNTY
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Manufacturing - Percentage of GDP
2007 - 2017
2007 13% GDP
2017 11% GDP
2% 1%
2007 6% GDP
2017 5% GDP
UNITED STATES NEW YORK STATE
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, EMSI (James Schlett, CEG)
Manufacturing - Percentage of GRP
5%
2007 16% GDP
2017 21% GDP
2%
2007 9% GDP
2017 11% GDP
Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA Saratoga County
Global Markets - What do we export and where?
Miscellaneous
Manufactured
Commodities, 39%
Computer &
Electronic
Products, 12%
Primary Metal
MFG, 10%
Chemicals, 9%
All Others, 31%
SOURCE: International Trade Association, U.S. Department of Commerce (NY Exports),
Exports from NY to World
Canada, 14%
Hong Kong,
12%
Israel, 8%
United
Kingdom, 7%
Switzerland,
7%
Mexico, 5%
Belgium, 5%
India, 5%
China, 4%
All Others, 33%
Exports From NY To
Where?
In 2017 in
Saratoga County,
3,768 jobs were
direct export –
supported jobs
$1,349,000,000
nominal exports
Source:
Brookings Export Monitor
(Saratoga County)
Source: New York State DOL 2017
Manufacturing in Saratoga County
140Manufacturers
17,298
New York State
Manufacturers
Number of Reporting Units - 2017
Region Manufacturing Jobs
in 2017
Manufacturing as
% of all private jobs
New York State 7,740,408 6%
Saratoga 8,108 11%
Washington 2,575 27%
Schenectady 5,766 11%
Rensselaer 4,597 9%
Warren 3,173 9%
Albany 7,680 4%
Concentration of Manufacturing Jobs
Source: Public Policy Institute of New York, EMSI (James Schlett – CEG)
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Food Mfg.
Beverage & Tobacco Product Mfg.
Textile Product Mills
Apparel Mfg.
Wood Product Mfg.
Printing and Related Support Activities
Chemical Mfg.
Plastics & Rubber Products Mfg.
Nonmetallic Mineral Product Mfg.
Fabricated Metal Product Mfg.
Machinery Mfg.
Computer & Electronic Product Mfg.
Electrical Equipment & Appliances Mfg.
Transportation Equipment Mfg.
Furniture & Related Mfg.
Misc. Mfg.
Saratoga County Manufacturing Subsector Trends
Number of Establishments 2007 - 2017
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Saratoga County Job Counts by NAICS Industry
Retail Trade, 15%
Health Care & Social
Assistance, 14%
Accomodation &
Food Service, 13%
Manufacturing
11%Professional &
Technical Services,
7%
Construction, 7%
Finance & Insurance,
5%
Wholesale Trade, 5%
Other (excluding
public
administration), 4%
Administrative &
Waste Service, 4%
All Others, 15%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2017
Manufacturing 4th Largest Private
Employer in Saratoga County
SECTOR 2007 2017 %Change
Retail Trade 18% 15% - 3%
Health Care &
Social Assistance
15% 14% - 1%
Accommodation
& Food Service
11% 13% + 2%
Manufacturing 8% 11% + 3%
3% Increase between 2007 - 2017
Manufacturing Jobs 2001 - 2017 Saratoga County
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
NumberofJobs
Saratoga County Linear (Saratoga County)
Back to 2001 level
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
-…
1%
2%
1%
-7%
2%
17%
13%
8%
11%
3%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Saratoga County New York State United States Linear (Saratoga County)
Saratoga County experienced
24% growth between 2009 - 2011
2002 - International Paper Mill Closes
in Corinth - 290 Jobs Lost
U.S. 14% growth between 2009 - 2011
Percentage Change in Manufacturing Jobs 2001-
2017
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Top 10 Saratoga County Manufacturing Sub-Sectors
2017
Rank Saratoga County Total Jobs
% of
Manufacturing
Jobs in County
1 Computer/Electronics 2,599 32%
2 Chemicals 1,278 16%
3 Printing 890 11%
4 Paper 518 6%
5 Fabricated Metals 501 6%
6 Machinery 227 3%
7 Wood Products 178 2%
8 Transportation
Equipment
167 2%
9 Plastics 165 2%
10 Textile 153 2%
Source: NYS Department of Labor
Average Annual Wage for Manufacturing Industry
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Saratoga County Capital Region New York State U.S.
Source: NYS Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Region 2001 2017 % Change
Saratoga
County
$49,279 $88,440
79%
Capital
Region
$45,482 $77,213 70%
New York
State
$44,521 $65,899 48%
United States $42,969 $66,840 55%
Saratoga County’s
Average Manufacturing Wage
increased by 79%
between 2001 - 2017
Saratoga County 2017 Average Annual Wages
Manufacturing Payroll vs Other Sectors
Ranking Industry Averages
Wages
1 Machinery Manufacturing $116,026
2 Chemical Manufacturing* $114,273
3 Computer and Electronic Product $102,748
4 Transportation Equipment@ $95,349
5 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing $74,001
Ranking Industry Average
Wages
1 Utilities $112,438
2 Manufacturing $88,440
3 Finance and Insurance $88,279
4 Professional and Technical Services $74,542
5 Wholesale Trade $68,892
*Source - Bureau of Labor Statistics 2017 Not enough Chemical Manufacturers and data didn’t change over time.
@ Source - NYS DOL 2014
ALL MANUFACTURING SUBSECTORS OF MANUFACTURING
Source: NYS DOL
$14,878
$43,475
$41,405 $41,155
$24,943
$18,631
$16,838
NEW YORK
STATE
SARATOGA RENSSELAER SCHENECTADY WASHINGTON WARREN ALBANY
New York State Saratoga Rensselaer Schenectady Washington Warren Albany
Source: Public Policy Institute of New York
2017 Manufacturing Wages v.
Non-Manufacturing Private Sector Wages
In Saratoga County
manufacturers pay
$43,475
more than
non-manufacturing
private sector wages
Regional Unemployment Rate
Source: EMSI - CEG
3.6%
2.9%
3.1% 3.2%
3.4% 3.4%
3.2%
4.4%
3.7% 3.7%
4.1% 4.1%
5.5%
5.0%
NEW YORK STATE SARATOGA ALBANY RENSSELAER SCHENECTADY WARREN WASHINGTON
Unemploymentrate–allsectors
Manufacturing Unemployment by County
Compared to New York State
Oct-18 Feb-19
Lowest rate in
12 years
Regional Unemployment for Manufacturing
Source: EMSI -CEG
356
198
279
266
92
197
SARATOGA ALBANY RENSSELAER SCHENECTADY WARREN WASHINGTON
Manufacturing Unemployment by County
October 2018
Saratoga
10%
Albany
4%
Rensselaer
11%
Schenectady
10%
Warren
9%
Washington
22%
Manufacturing Jobs
Percentage of
Regional Unemployment
Percentage of
National Unemployment
for Manufacturing Jobs10%
Manufacturers Strategic Approaches for a
Positive Employment Future
• Take advantage of the emerging workforce
ecosystem
• Prepare the workforce for automation disruptions
• Tap into the resources from the retiring generation
of baby boomers
• Develop in-house training that engages a
multi-generation workforce
• Create public–private partnerships
• Bolster apprenticeship programs
Source: Deloitte and Manufacturing Institute
SUMMARY
• Manufacturing is Robust in Saratoga County
• Outpacing Region, State, and Nation in
Jobs, Wages, + Economic Impact
• Workforce Development is Critical to
Economic Development
• Public-Private Partnerships
• Collaboration with Education System – C5
• Workforce Development Boards – Regional and State
• Employer driven training
JASON BRAM
Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Overview of the Regional Economy
Jason Bram, Research Officer
Presented to Saratoga Partnership
April 17, 2019
The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent
those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
Recent Private-Sector Job Trends
Year-Over-Year Percent Change as of February 2019
AL
Down Flat Up to 1% Up 1% to 2% Up More Than 2%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
AK
FL
HI
PR
AZ
AR
CA CO
CT
NJ
DE
MD
GA
ID
IL IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
VT
NH
MA
RIMI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
29
Private-Sector Job Trends
Percent Change From Previous Peak to February 2019
AL
Down Flat Up to 3% Up 3% to 7% Up More Than 7%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
AK
FL
HI
PR
AZ
AR
CA CO
CT
NJ
DE
MD
GA
ID
IL IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
VT
NH
MA
RIMI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
30
88
94
100
106
112
118
2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Orange-Rockland-
Westchester
New York City
Long Island
United States
Fairfield
Private-Sector Employment
Seasonally Adjusted Index
Index (Dec2007=100)
124
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
Mar
31
88
94
100
106
112
118
2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
United States
Upstate
Utica Glens Falls
Albany
Private-Sector Employment
Seasonally Adjusted Index
Index (Dec2007=100)
124
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
Mar
Feb
32
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Dec 2000 Dec 2002 Dec 2004 Dec 2006 Dec 2008 Dec 2010 Dec 2012 Dec 2014 Dec 2016 Dec 2018
Private-Sector Employment Trends in the
Albany-Saratoga Corridor
Index of Employment: 2007=100 (12-month moving average)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
Shading indicates NBER recession
Albany
United States
Rensselaer
Schenectady
Saratoga County
33
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Dec 2000 Dec 2002 Dec 2004 Dec 2006 Dec 2008 Dec 2010 Dec 2012 Dec 2014 Dec 2016
Manufacturing Employment Trends in the
Albany-Saratoga Corridor
Index of Employment: 2007=100 (12-month moving average)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
Shading indicates NBER recession
Albany
United States
Rensselaer
Schenectady
Saratoga County
34
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 2010Q1 2012Q1 2014Q1 2016Q1 2018Q1
Aggregate Wage & Salary Income:
Private Sector - 4-Quarter Moving Average Index: 2007=100
Saratoga County
U.S.
35Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 2010Q1 2012Q1 2014Q1 2016Q1 2018Q1
Average Wage & Salary Income:
Private Sector - 4-Quarter Moving Average Index: 2007=100
Saratoga County
U.S.
36Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
60
80
100
120
CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted
Index (Mar2006=100)
140
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).
2006 2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
New York State United StatesNYC Metro
Downstate NY
Upstate NY
Home Prices
Jan
37
60
70
80
90
100
110
2006 2007 2008 2009 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Home Prices
CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted
Index (Mar2006=100)
120
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013
Dutchess-Putnam
United States
NYC Metro
Kingston MSA
Jan
38
60
80
100
120
140
2006 2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
United States
AlbanyRochester
Upstate NY
Buffalo
Home Prices
CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted
Index (Mar2006=100)
160
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).
Jan
39
60
70
80
90
100
110
2006 2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Schenectady County
United States
Albany County
Rensselaer County
Home PricesCoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted
Index (Mar2006=100)
120
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).
Saratoga County
Jan
40
NY Fed Business Surveys
41
• What are the two business surveys?
• Empire State Manufacturing Survey: manufacturers in New York State.
• Business Leaders Survey: non-manufacturing firms in 2nd District (ex-PR, VI).
• How do they work?
• Monthly online questionnaire filled out by 100-150 businesses
- Industry mix roughly representative of region.
• Standard questions on various business measures—current & expected.
• Responses are aggregated into diffusion indexes
- Analysts and media typically focus on the headline indexes.
• Rotating supplementary questions on various issues of interest.
• Why do we do them?
• Timely indicators of the regional economy, as well as particular industries.
• Timely indicator of the U.S. economy.
Empire State Mfg Survey Questionnaire
42
Empire Mfg. Survey as a regional indicator
43
Empire Mfg. Survey as a national indicator
44
Business Leaders Survey Questionnaire
45
Business Leaders Survey as a regional indicator
46
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2005 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2013 - Jan 2015 - Jan 2017 - Jan 2019 - Jan
12-monthJobGrowth
DiffusionIndex
Business Leaders Survey Diffusion Index: Current Employment
& Growth in NY-NJ Private Service-Producing Jobs
Job Growth (left scale)
Survey Index (right scale)
Sandy
Business Leaders Survey as a national indicator
47
Business Leaders Survey as a national indicator
48
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Empire State
Manufacturing Survey
Business Leaders
Survey
Current Economic Conditions
FRBNY Business Surveys, Current Conditions
Diffusion Index
60
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Apr
49
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Empire State
Manufacturing Survey
Business Leaders
Survey
Future Economic Conditions
FRBNY Business Surveys, Conditions Six Months Ahead
Diffusion Index
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Apr
50
Please Consider
Participating in
the New York Fed’s Monthly
Business Surveys
Hand me your card,
we’ll send you an invitation
PANEL DISCUSSION
JASON BRAM
Economist
Federal Reserve Bank
Of New York
MARK DOUGHERTY
Vice President of
Operations Fab 8
GLOBALFOUNDRIES
CHAD MCKISSICK
Plant Director
QUAD/Graphics
PEG MURPHY
Director HR/Corporate
Secretary
ESPEY Mfg. & Electronics
Saratoga County Manufacturing Economic Index 4.17.19

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Saratoga County Manufacturing Economic Index 4.17.19

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 6. The mission of the Saratoga County Prosperity Partnership shall be to secure sustainable jobs and capital investment by attracting new business to the County and retaining existing businesses by assisting them to grow. Mission of the Saratoga Partnership
  • 7. PENNY HILL Dean of Economic Development and Workforce Initiatives Board of Directors
  • 8. HUDSON VALLEY COMMUNITY COLLEGE Sixty year history of working with manufacturing industry • Model manufacturing degree programs and apprenticeships • Offering incentives to provide customized training for manufacturers • Manufacturing Industry Feedback and Partnership Roundtable – May 10 • Manufacturing Bootcamp for entry level work • Gene F. Haas Center for Advanced Manufacturing Skills (CAMS)
  • 10. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Manufacturing - Percentage of GDP 2007 - 2017 2007 13% GDP 2017 11% GDP 2% 1% 2007 6% GDP 2017 5% GDP UNITED STATES NEW YORK STATE
  • 11. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, EMSI (James Schlett, CEG) Manufacturing - Percentage of GRP 5% 2007 16% GDP 2017 21% GDP 2% 2007 9% GDP 2017 11% GDP Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA Saratoga County
  • 12. Global Markets - What do we export and where? Miscellaneous Manufactured Commodities, 39% Computer & Electronic Products, 12% Primary Metal MFG, 10% Chemicals, 9% All Others, 31% SOURCE: International Trade Association, U.S. Department of Commerce (NY Exports), Exports from NY to World Canada, 14% Hong Kong, 12% Israel, 8% United Kingdom, 7% Switzerland, 7% Mexico, 5% Belgium, 5% India, 5% China, 4% All Others, 33% Exports From NY To Where? In 2017 in Saratoga County, 3,768 jobs were direct export – supported jobs $1,349,000,000 nominal exports Source: Brookings Export Monitor (Saratoga County)
  • 13. Source: New York State DOL 2017 Manufacturing in Saratoga County 140Manufacturers 17,298 New York State Manufacturers Number of Reporting Units - 2017
  • 14. Region Manufacturing Jobs in 2017 Manufacturing as % of all private jobs New York State 7,740,408 6% Saratoga 8,108 11% Washington 2,575 27% Schenectady 5,766 11% Rensselaer 4,597 9% Warren 3,173 9% Albany 7,680 4% Concentration of Manufacturing Jobs Source: Public Policy Institute of New York, EMSI (James Schlett – CEG)
  • 15. 0 5 10 15 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Food Mfg. Beverage & Tobacco Product Mfg. Textile Product Mills Apparel Mfg. Wood Product Mfg. Printing and Related Support Activities Chemical Mfg. Plastics & Rubber Products Mfg. Nonmetallic Mineral Product Mfg. Fabricated Metal Product Mfg. Machinery Mfg. Computer & Electronic Product Mfg. Electrical Equipment & Appliances Mfg. Transportation Equipment Mfg. Furniture & Related Mfg. Misc. Mfg. Saratoga County Manufacturing Subsector Trends Number of Establishments 2007 - 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 16. Saratoga County Job Counts by NAICS Industry Retail Trade, 15% Health Care & Social Assistance, 14% Accomodation & Food Service, 13% Manufacturing 11%Professional & Technical Services, 7% Construction, 7% Finance & Insurance, 5% Wholesale Trade, 5% Other (excluding public administration), 4% Administrative & Waste Service, 4% All Others, 15% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2017 Manufacturing 4th Largest Private Employer in Saratoga County SECTOR 2007 2017 %Change Retail Trade 18% 15% - 3% Health Care & Social Assistance 15% 14% - 1% Accommodation & Food Service 11% 13% + 2% Manufacturing 8% 11% + 3% 3% Increase between 2007 - 2017
  • 17. Manufacturing Jobs 2001 - 2017 Saratoga County 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 NumberofJobs Saratoga County Linear (Saratoga County) Back to 2001 level Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 18. 0 -… 1% 2% 1% -7% 2% 17% 13% 8% 11% 3% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Saratoga County New York State United States Linear (Saratoga County) Saratoga County experienced 24% growth between 2009 - 2011 2002 - International Paper Mill Closes in Corinth - 290 Jobs Lost U.S. 14% growth between 2009 - 2011 Percentage Change in Manufacturing Jobs 2001- 2017 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 19. Top 10 Saratoga County Manufacturing Sub-Sectors 2017 Rank Saratoga County Total Jobs % of Manufacturing Jobs in County 1 Computer/Electronics 2,599 32% 2 Chemicals 1,278 16% 3 Printing 890 11% 4 Paper 518 6% 5 Fabricated Metals 501 6% 6 Machinery 227 3% 7 Wood Products 178 2% 8 Transportation Equipment 167 2% 9 Plastics 165 2% 10 Textile 153 2% Source: NYS Department of Labor
  • 20. Average Annual Wage for Manufacturing Industry $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Saratoga County Capital Region New York State U.S. Source: NYS Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Region 2001 2017 % Change Saratoga County $49,279 $88,440 79% Capital Region $45,482 $77,213 70% New York State $44,521 $65,899 48% United States $42,969 $66,840 55% Saratoga County’s Average Manufacturing Wage increased by 79% between 2001 - 2017
  • 21. Saratoga County 2017 Average Annual Wages Manufacturing Payroll vs Other Sectors Ranking Industry Averages Wages 1 Machinery Manufacturing $116,026 2 Chemical Manufacturing* $114,273 3 Computer and Electronic Product $102,748 4 Transportation Equipment@ $95,349 5 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing $74,001 Ranking Industry Average Wages 1 Utilities $112,438 2 Manufacturing $88,440 3 Finance and Insurance $88,279 4 Professional and Technical Services $74,542 5 Wholesale Trade $68,892 *Source - Bureau of Labor Statistics 2017 Not enough Chemical Manufacturers and data didn’t change over time. @ Source - NYS DOL 2014 ALL MANUFACTURING SUBSECTORS OF MANUFACTURING Source: NYS DOL
  • 22. $14,878 $43,475 $41,405 $41,155 $24,943 $18,631 $16,838 NEW YORK STATE SARATOGA RENSSELAER SCHENECTADY WASHINGTON WARREN ALBANY New York State Saratoga Rensselaer Schenectady Washington Warren Albany Source: Public Policy Institute of New York 2017 Manufacturing Wages v. Non-Manufacturing Private Sector Wages In Saratoga County manufacturers pay $43,475 more than non-manufacturing private sector wages
  • 23. Regional Unemployment Rate Source: EMSI - CEG 3.6% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.2% 4.4% 3.7% 3.7% 4.1% 4.1% 5.5% 5.0% NEW YORK STATE SARATOGA ALBANY RENSSELAER SCHENECTADY WARREN WASHINGTON Unemploymentrate–allsectors Manufacturing Unemployment by County Compared to New York State Oct-18 Feb-19 Lowest rate in 12 years
  • 24. Regional Unemployment for Manufacturing Source: EMSI -CEG 356 198 279 266 92 197 SARATOGA ALBANY RENSSELAER SCHENECTADY WARREN WASHINGTON Manufacturing Unemployment by County October 2018 Saratoga 10% Albany 4% Rensselaer 11% Schenectady 10% Warren 9% Washington 22% Manufacturing Jobs Percentage of Regional Unemployment Percentage of National Unemployment for Manufacturing Jobs10%
  • 25. Manufacturers Strategic Approaches for a Positive Employment Future • Take advantage of the emerging workforce ecosystem • Prepare the workforce for automation disruptions • Tap into the resources from the retiring generation of baby boomers • Develop in-house training that engages a multi-generation workforce • Create public–private partnerships • Bolster apprenticeship programs Source: Deloitte and Manufacturing Institute
  • 26. SUMMARY • Manufacturing is Robust in Saratoga County • Outpacing Region, State, and Nation in Jobs, Wages, + Economic Impact • Workforce Development is Critical to Economic Development • Public-Private Partnerships • Collaboration with Education System – C5 • Workforce Development Boards – Regional and State • Employer driven training
  • 28. Overview of the Regional Economy Jason Bram, Research Officer Presented to Saratoga Partnership April 17, 2019 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
  • 29. Recent Private-Sector Job Trends Year-Over-Year Percent Change as of February 2019 AL Down Flat Up to 1% Up 1% to 2% Up More Than 2% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. AK FL HI PR AZ AR CA CO CT NJ DE MD GA ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME VT NH MA RIMI MN MS MO MT NE NV NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WA WV WI WY 29
  • 30. Private-Sector Job Trends Percent Change From Previous Peak to February 2019 AL Down Flat Up to 3% Up 3% to 7% Up More Than 7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. AK FL HI PR AZ AR CA CO CT NJ DE MD GA ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME VT NH MA RIMI MN MS MO MT NE NV NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WA WV WI WY 30
  • 31. 88 94 100 106 112 118 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Orange-Rockland- Westchester New York City Long Island United States Fairfield Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100) 124 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. Mar 31
  • 32. 88 94 100 106 112 118 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 United States Upstate Utica Glens Falls Albany Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100) 124 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. Mar Feb 32
  • 33. 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 Dec 2000 Dec 2002 Dec 2004 Dec 2006 Dec 2008 Dec 2010 Dec 2012 Dec 2014 Dec 2016 Dec 2018 Private-Sector Employment Trends in the Albany-Saratoga Corridor Index of Employment: 2007=100 (12-month moving average) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. Shading indicates NBER recession Albany United States Rensselaer Schenectady Saratoga County 33
  • 34. 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 Dec 2000 Dec 2002 Dec 2004 Dec 2006 Dec 2008 Dec 2010 Dec 2012 Dec 2014 Dec 2016 Manufacturing Employment Trends in the Albany-Saratoga Corridor Index of Employment: 2007=100 (12-month moving average) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. Shading indicates NBER recession Albany United States Rensselaer Schenectady Saratoga County 34
  • 35. 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 2010Q1 2012Q1 2014Q1 2016Q1 2018Q1 Aggregate Wage & Salary Income: Private Sector - 4-Quarter Moving Average Index: 2007=100 Saratoga County U.S. 35Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
  • 36. 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 2010Q1 2012Q1 2014Q1 2016Q1 2018Q1 Average Wage & Salary Income: Private Sector - 4-Quarter Moving Average Index: 2007=100 Saratoga County U.S. 36Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
  • 37. 60 80 100 120 CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Mar2006=100) 140 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). 2006 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 New York State United StatesNYC Metro Downstate NY Upstate NY Home Prices Jan 37
  • 38. 60 70 80 90 100 110 2006 2007 2008 2009 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Mar2006=100) 120 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 Dutchess-Putnam United States NYC Metro Kingston MSA Jan 38
  • 39. 60 80 100 120 140 2006 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 United States AlbanyRochester Upstate NY Buffalo Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Mar2006=100) 160 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). Jan 39
  • 40. 60 70 80 90 100 110 2006 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Schenectady County United States Albany County Rensselaer County Home PricesCoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Mar2006=100) 120 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). Saratoga County Jan 40
  • 41. NY Fed Business Surveys 41 • What are the two business surveys? • Empire State Manufacturing Survey: manufacturers in New York State. • Business Leaders Survey: non-manufacturing firms in 2nd District (ex-PR, VI). • How do they work? • Monthly online questionnaire filled out by 100-150 businesses - Industry mix roughly representative of region. • Standard questions on various business measures—current & expected. • Responses are aggregated into diffusion indexes - Analysts and media typically focus on the headline indexes. • Rotating supplementary questions on various issues of interest. • Why do we do them? • Timely indicators of the regional economy, as well as particular industries. • Timely indicator of the U.S. economy.
  • 42. Empire State Mfg Survey Questionnaire 42
  • 43. Empire Mfg. Survey as a regional indicator 43
  • 44. Empire Mfg. Survey as a national indicator 44
  • 45. Business Leaders Survey Questionnaire 45
  • 46. Business Leaders Survey as a regional indicator 46 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2005 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2013 - Jan 2015 - Jan 2017 - Jan 2019 - Jan 12-monthJobGrowth DiffusionIndex Business Leaders Survey Diffusion Index: Current Employment & Growth in NY-NJ Private Service-Producing Jobs Job Growth (left scale) Survey Index (right scale) Sandy
  • 47. Business Leaders Survey as a national indicator 47
  • 48. Business Leaders Survey as a national indicator 48
  • 49. -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business Leaders Survey Current Economic Conditions FRBNY Business Surveys, Current Conditions Diffusion Index 60 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Apr 49
  • 50. -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business Leaders Survey Future Economic Conditions FRBNY Business Surveys, Conditions Six Months Ahead Diffusion Index Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Apr 50
  • 51. Please Consider Participating in the New York Fed’s Monthly Business Surveys Hand me your card, we’ll send you an invitation
  • 52. PANEL DISCUSSION JASON BRAM Economist Federal Reserve Bank Of New York MARK DOUGHERTY Vice President of Operations Fab 8 GLOBALFOUNDRIES CHAD MCKISSICK Plant Director QUAD/Graphics PEG MURPHY Director HR/Corporate Secretary ESPEY Mfg. & Electronics