The U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, a reversal from three months of slowing growth. Unemployment remained stable at 6.7 percent, but improved confidence increased the number of people looking for work. Total unemployment remains above historic norms at 12.7 percent, but 95 percent of jobs have been recovered since the recession. Positive signs include March growth being evenly distributed across industries and spreading more geographically. We expect continued positive momentum throughout 2014.
See details on the data, including demographic, geographic and industry breakdowns, in this report featuring research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and JLL.
1. U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
After an earlier pause, diversified
growth characterized gains in March
U.S. employment situation: March 2014 April 4, 2014
2. What were March’s bright spots and challenges?
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
• The U.S. economy added 192,000
jobs in March, returning to above-
average gains and reversing a sharp
slowdown in activity.
• Unemployment remained unchanged
at 6.7 percent.
• 95.0 percent of jobs lost during the
recession have been regained; the
U.S. economy is just 0.3 percent
below previous peak employment.
• PBS’ record high of over 19.0 million
jobs has helped to push office using
employment far above its previous
peak.
• Growth at the subsector level was
diverse; no subsector received a
majority of gains. This was true for
both monthly and year-on-year
additions.
• Unemployment for high school and
college graduates dropped 10 basis
points even though the official
unemployment rate remained neutral.
• Tech is still a leader and is slowly
bouncing back from a moderate
slowdown in previous years.
• Unemployment insurance claims are
hovering in the low 300,000s and on
the verge of going below the 300,000
mark.
• Geographically, job growth is
spreading. While energy and tech
hubs still lead, the Sunbelt is picking
up slack, particularly in smaller
markets that have become focal
points for corporate expansion due to
low cost of business and labor as
well as tax incentives.
• T
• Total unemployment (including
disaffected workers) rose by 10
basis points to 12.7 percent even
as it approaches the 10-year
average.
• A slowdown in monthly PBS gains
combined with flat growth in
information and financial activities is
pushing down office-using
industries’ share of additions.
• Goods-producing growth is slowing
as service-providing sectors need
to pick up the slack.
• Labor force participation for both
high school grads and bachelor’s
degree holders is still at record
lows.
• Temporary help services growth
shows little sign of slowing.
Overview Bright spots Challenges
OVERVIEW
5. 90.0%
92.0%
94.0%
96.0%
98.0%
100.0%
102.0%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76
1973 1981 1990 2001 2007
77 months into the cycle, total employment is now only
0.3 percent below prior peak levels
Recoveredjobs(%)
Past recessions (40 years)
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Pre-recession employment level
5
OVERVIEW
6. Jobs lost during recession…
Jobs gained during recovery…
95.0 percent of jobs have been recovered from the
recession; now 437,000 jobs below pre-recession peak
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
OVERVIEW
7. Office-using jobs lost
during recession…
Office-using jobs gained
during recovery…
All office-using jobs have been recovered, but there is now
an emphasis on management, tech and design
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7
OVERVIEW
8. -9.0
-1.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
6.0
7.0
7.1
7.9
8.0
19.0
21.3
27.0
28.5
29.0
34.0
57.0
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Nondurable goods
Manufacturing
Motor vehicles and parts
Government
Financial activities
Information
Other services
Mining and logging
Wholesale trade
Transportation and warehousing
Durable goods
Construction
Retail trade
Health care and social assistance
Temporary help services
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health services
Professional and business services
1-month net change (thousands)
A diversified recovery is apparent in March, with
growth not dominated by a single industry
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8
OVERVIEW
PBS
Education and health
Leisure and hospitality
All other subsectors
Top three
subsectors
responsible for
62.5 percent of
monthly
growth.
9. -29.0
-19.0
-1.0
34.3
38.0
40.0
57.0
72.0
73.0
94.8
118.4
151.0
247.4
289.0
315.2
334.0
406.0
667.0
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Information
Government
Nondurable goods
Motor vehicles and parts
Mining and logging
Other services
Financial activities
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Transportation and warehousing
Wholesale trade
Construction
Temporary help services
Health care and social assistance
Retail trade
Education and health services
Leisure and hospitality
Professional and business services
12-month net change (thousands)
PBS
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health
Retail trade
Manufacturing
Financial activities
All other jobs
Year-on-year, core subsectors’ share of growth declined
by 19.9 percentage points as well
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
9
Core subsectors added 64.1 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.
OVERVIEW
10. -1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Change in '000s jobs
After slowing somewhat, monthly private sector
additions are seeing new signs of life
Private sector hiring up 4.4
million since March 2012
Public sector shed 96,000 workers
since March 2012
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
BRIGHT SPOT
11. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Unemployment(%)
Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college
Similar to the national trend, educational attainment-
based unemployment remains stable
3.4%
6.3%
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
BRIGHT SPOT
12. Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities is
more volatile
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through Feburary 2014.
12
12-month%change(jobs)
BRIGHT SPOT
13. Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing
slowdown in recent months
Year-on-year percent employment growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
BRIGHT SPOT
14. Initial unemployment insurance claims continue to
remain in the low 300,000s at recovery lows
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
14
BRIGHT SPOT
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Claims
Initial claims 4-week moving average
15. 0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Consumer confidence index
Unemployment rate
Consumer confidence is on the rise even though
unemployment has not declined noticeably in months
Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
BRIGHT SPOT
16. Bay Area, Texas and the Sunbelt continue to see
fastest employment growth; spreading geographically
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
Austin
4.2%
BRIGHT SPOT
Orlando
3.3%
Jacksonville
3.2%
Houston
3.1%
Raleigh-
Durham
3.2%
San
Francisco
3.2%
Silicon Valley
4.3%
17. Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest
of the country
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Hampton
Roads
-0.5%
17
CHALLENGE
Westchester
County
0.3%
Philadelphia
0.4%
Cleveland
0.4%
New Jersey
0.3%
Pittsburgh
0.0%
18. Total unemployment fell by rose by 10bp and is
struggling to hit the 10-year average
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
18
CHALLENGE
19. A slowdown in growth combined with improvements
in other sectors impacting office-using’s share of gains
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
CHALLENGE
20. While service-providing employment has seen a sharp
rise, it its still only average; goods’ gains declining
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Goods-producing Service-providing
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
20
CHALLENGE
22. Office-using job growth is slowing due to flat
information and financial activities employment
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.
In March 2014, it represented all 95.0 percent of new office jobs.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
22
CHALLENGE
24. Temporary help services continue to rise at increasingly
faster monthly rates during 2014
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2,000.0
2,200.0
2,400.0
2,600.0
2,800.0
3,000.0
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Monthlynetchangeinjobs(ths)
Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment
Temporaryemployment(ths)
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
24
CHALLENGE
25. Sector focus: mining and logging employment may be
small, but its growth certainly is not
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
25
SECTOR
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Miningandloggingemployment(thousands)
Since 2010, mining and logging has added 231,000 jobs
+34.6%
growth since 2010
Oil and gas extraction leads year-on-year job gains
4.1
13.9
5.4
Logging Oil and gas extraction
Support activities for mining
Employment in mining except for oil
and gas declined year-on-year