This document discusses the possibility of developing ultraintelligent machines that could lead to an "intelligence explosion" and far surpass human level intelligence. It notes that the first ultraintelligent machine may be the last invention that humans need to make if it can be designed to remain controllable. The document also covers potential hardware approaches like Lloyd's theoretical laptop with vast processing power, as well as software approaches like neural networks and machine learning. It discusses both promises and potential pitfalls of advancing technology.

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FUTURES
FUTURES

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Beyond Human Level
Intelligence
Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a
machine that can far surpass all the intellectual
activities of any man however clever. Since the
design of machines is one of these intellectual
activities, an ultraintelligent machine could
design even better machines; there would then
unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion’,
and the intelligence of man would be left far
behind.
Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last
invention that man need ever make, provided
that the machine is docile enough to tell us how
to keep it under control

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• Compact program:
total human genome
is 800MB
• Networked: 100
trillion connections
• Massive
computation: 10^19
calc per sec.
• Slow: 200 TPS

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Some Alternative Hardware
• The Ultimate Lap Top (Seth Lloyd, 1999)
– 1 KG, 1 L
– E = MC^2 = 8.9874 × 10^16 joules
– ‘to perform an elementary logical operation in time ∆t requires
an average amount of energy E ≥ πh/2∆t. As a consequence, a
system with average energy E can perform a maximum of 2E/πh
logical operations per second.’
– Max speed = 5.4258 × 10^50 operations per second.. Max
memory 10^31 bits.
• Exercises into the how: 10^25 atoms, 50 bits – 4M bits per
atom
• Just theory?
– Moore’s Law
– Nanotechnology (Drexler, nano scales rods mechanical
computer, 10^12 processors, 10^21 cps)
– DNA Computing
– Quantum Computing

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Software: Learning Machines
• Turing
Instead of trying to produce a programme to
simulate the adult mind, why not rather try to
produce one which simulates the child’s?
If this then would be subjected to an
appropriate course of education one would
obtain the adult brain.
Turing, Computing Machinery and
Intelligence, Mind 1950

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Example: Neural Networks

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Other Developments
Example: Genome Editing

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Beware what you wish
for (Bostrom)

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The best way to predict the
future is to change it.
George Church, Harvard University

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Today designers often
focus on making
technology easy to use,
sexy, and consumable.
In Speculative Everything,
Anthony Dunne and Fiona
Raby propose a kind of
design that is used as a
tool to create not only
things but ideas. For them,
design is a means of
speculating about how
things could be—to
imagine possible futures.
This is not the usual sort
of predicting or
forecasting, spotting
trends and extrapolating;
these kinds of predictions
have been proven wrong,

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Speculative Everything offers
a tour through an emerging
cultural landscape of design
ideas, ideals, and
approaches. Dunne and Raby
cite examples from their own
design and teaching and from
other projects from fine art,
design, architecture, cinema,
and photography. They also
draw on futurology, political
theory, the philosophy of
technology, and literary
fiction. They show us, for
example, ideas for a solar
kitchen restaurant; a flypaper
robotic clock; a menstruation
machine; a cloud-seeding
truck; a phantom-limb
sensation recorder; and
devices for food foraging that
use the tools of synthetic

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Dilbert on the Singularity