Michell Zappa presents 6 patterns for thinking about technology:
1) Exponential change means technology gets faster and cheaper over time, indirectly affecting all aspects of society.
2) Unintended consequences are difficult to anticipate as technology causes nonlinear and unexpected impacts.
3) Technological ubiquity results in all industries and companies becoming technology companies in some way.
4) New technologies are combinations of pre-existing technologies. 5) Science fiction inspires real-world innovation. 6) By understanding these patterns, the future of technology can be more predictable than perceived.
What is harder to ignore and even more disconcerting is the fact that the same high tech elites who have made literally billions of dollars off the computer revolution at a time of virtually no regulation are now warning us of the downfall of humanity at the hands of computers and AI, and they are now pleading publicly for regulation before it is too late.
The AIs Are Not Taking Our Jobs...They Are Changing ThemTim O'Reilly
My talk at the Web Summit in Dublin on November 6, 2014. Reflections on the notion that AI will take away jobs, and our need to recognize and redefine the human role in the applications we build. Covers many of the same ideas as my "Internet of Things and Humans" talk, but from a slightly different angle.
What is harder to ignore and even more disconcerting is the fact that the same high tech elites who have made literally billions of dollars off the computer revolution at a time of virtually no regulation are now warning us of the downfall of humanity at the hands of computers and AI, and they are now pleading publicly for regulation before it is too late.
The AIs Are Not Taking Our Jobs...They Are Changing ThemTim O'Reilly
My talk at the Web Summit in Dublin on November 6, 2014. Reflections on the notion that AI will take away jobs, and our need to recognize and redefine the human role in the applications we build. Covers many of the same ideas as my "Internet of Things and Humans" talk, but from a slightly different angle.
This document is a briefing of the Conference Exponential Manufacturing organized by Singularity University in may 2016. We enrieched it with examples and articles by our own.
My keynote at the Open Exchange Summit in Nashville on April 18, 2018. I talk about the implications for many different kinds of companies of the fact that increasingly large segments of our economy are being dominated by algorithmically managed network marketplaces.
Do More. Do things that were previously impossible!Tim O'Reilly
My keynote at SxSW Interactive on March 9, 2018. I tackle the job of the entrepreneur to redraw the map, and not to accept the idea that technology will put people out of work rather than creating new kinds of prosperity. I try to provide a call to action to throw off the shackles of the old world and to build a new one. So many companies play defense. Cut costs, watch the competition, follow best practices. Great entrepreneurs like Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk play offense. They see the world with fresh eyes, taking off the blinders that keep companies using technology to make slight improvements to existing products and practices, rather than imagining the world as it could be, given the new capabilities that technology has given us.
Texas Association of State Systems for Computing and Communications, The Future is Here: IT Prime Time, Jim Brazell, Venture Ramp, Inc.August 3-5, Houston, Westin Galleria, Final Speech
My talk for TechStars at Techweek Kansas City in October 2018. While this is a talk based on my book WTF?, it is fairly different from many of the others that I've posted here, in that it focuses specifically on parts of the book that contain advice for entrepreneurs, rather than on the broader questions of technology and the economy. As always, look at the speaker notes for
World Affairs Council, 2013, Summer Teacher Institute, Humanities and STEM
The Future is Here
Next Level Global Education and Social Studies Design Workshop
Teaching in a Time of Transition, World Affairs Council, Summer Institute on International Affairs, June 24-28. 2013
People are slowly beginning to realize that the times, they are a-changing. When it comes to the future of work and automation, it’s not a question of how, but when. We usually only react when it’s already too late. But this time, the writings on the wall are too overwhelming to just ignore them.
Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying that you should stock up on guns, build a shelter and prepare for Skynet. But it’s probably a good idea to at least start considering the idea that things might change faster than you think. And in the end, we would hate to say we told you so. So start preparing right now with these 6 crucial tips to survive the second machine age.
Présentation du Keynote du jeudi 20 octobre 2016 - M. Paul RamseyACSG Section Montréal
Présentation du Keynote du jeudi 20 octobre 2016 - M. Paul Ramsey dans le cadre de Géomatique 2016
Très actif dans le domaine de l’Open Source, il a mis sur pied une entreprise spécialisée dans le développement de logiciels de géomatique. Il nous a exposé son expérience concernant la symbiose de la technologie et de la culture. Location Omniscience, Free data, Free software, free machine et Utility computing, un discours sur les tendances technologiques accompagné d’un peu de philosophie. Il nous a exposé à quel point la convergence de l’accessibilité des technologies, l’abondance des données et les faibles coûts des services de traitement ouvrent la porte à un univers infini de possibilités. Il a également amené l’auditoire à réfléchir sur le fait que nous sommes épiés en tout temps, que ce soit par des caméras, des drones, des algorithmes ou autres, nous sommes surveillés en permanence.
What's Next? Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society and Rebooting DemocracyNino Lo Cascio
Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society & Rebooting Democracy;
- IT Industrialisation
- Information Explosion
- "Everyware" - The Mobile Internet
- Natural UI
- Aging Population
- Digital Natives
- New emerging democracy model
- Scenarios 2020
Open Data: From the Information Age to the Action Age (PDF with notes)Tim O'Reilly
This is the presentation I made at the UK Department for International Aid/Omidyar Network OpenUp! conference in London on November 13, 2012. I talk about open government not as a platform for transparency or citizen engagement, but for a developer ecosystem building useful services. A video of this talk is available at http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OIlxdpfu71o
Yet another version of my book talk, this time at Harvard Business School, on March 28, 2018. This one had fewer slides with less connecting narrative so that I could spend more time interacting with the audience. I think it went pretty well. As usual, the speaker notes contain the narrative that goes with the slides, which are mostly images.
My keynote at OSCON 2018 in Portland. What I love about open source software, and what that teaches us about how we can have a better future by the better design of online marketplaces and the algorithms that manage them - and our entire economy. The narrative is in the speaker notes.
Instead of fretting over how easily and soon humans will be replaced, leaders would be better advised to think about the future of automation as interlacing machine strengths with those of humans. Work will need redesigning, but the AI enabled automation – done well – can unlock economic growth, fuel innovation and make work more humanA presentation given at @FutureheadsUK Leaders of Change, at CaptialOne, on 5th December 2018, by Kevin McCullagh.
My plenary talk to the California Workforce Association Conference in Monterey, CA, on September 5, 2018. I talked about the role of technology to augment people rather than replace them from my book WTF? What's the Future and Why It's Up to Us, and my ideas about AI and distributional economics, in the context of today's education and workforce development systems. I also summarize some of the work Code for America has been doing on the current state of the California Workforce Development ecosystem.
Africa has a certain flair for innovation - this keynote explores how Africa has managed to continue to innovate despite disadvantages. It covers Alternative Energy, Mobile Payments, Crowdsourcing, Scratch Card distribution channels and Alternative Power.
Stories of a continent solving real problems, not #FirstWorldProblems!
What is the future of transportation? We at the Institute of Customer Experience share our insights by analyzing the trends in technological advancements in transportation, which you can find on our Facebook page: facebook.com/UXTrendspotting
My keynote at the 2018 New Profit Gathering of Leaders conference in Boston on May 17, 2018. I talk about the lessons from technology platforms, how they teach us what is wrong with our economy, and the possibilities of AI for creating better, fairer, more effective decisions about "who gets what and why" in the economy.
In recent years, access to the Internet has become increasingly important for individuals’ and
communities’ economic productivity, as well as improved access to goods and services, education,
government services and more. Some in the developed world, including First Lady Michelle Obama [1],
have even begun to refer to Internet connectivity as a universal right.
In reality, however, Internet access is very far from universal. As of 2013, 4.4 billion people — over
60% of the world’s population — were not connected to the Internet [2]. And, while Internet penetration
is increasing, the rate of its increase has slowed slightly, from around 15% a year in the mid ’00s to
around 10% in the late ’00s. If this trend continues, over half the global population will still be offline in
2017.
This document is a briefing of the Conference Exponential Manufacturing organized by Singularity University in may 2016. We enrieched it with examples and articles by our own.
My keynote at the Open Exchange Summit in Nashville on April 18, 2018. I talk about the implications for many different kinds of companies of the fact that increasingly large segments of our economy are being dominated by algorithmically managed network marketplaces.
Do More. Do things that were previously impossible!Tim O'Reilly
My keynote at SxSW Interactive on March 9, 2018. I tackle the job of the entrepreneur to redraw the map, and not to accept the idea that technology will put people out of work rather than creating new kinds of prosperity. I try to provide a call to action to throw off the shackles of the old world and to build a new one. So many companies play defense. Cut costs, watch the competition, follow best practices. Great entrepreneurs like Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk play offense. They see the world with fresh eyes, taking off the blinders that keep companies using technology to make slight improvements to existing products and practices, rather than imagining the world as it could be, given the new capabilities that technology has given us.
Texas Association of State Systems for Computing and Communications, The Future is Here: IT Prime Time, Jim Brazell, Venture Ramp, Inc.August 3-5, Houston, Westin Galleria, Final Speech
My talk for TechStars at Techweek Kansas City in October 2018. While this is a talk based on my book WTF?, it is fairly different from many of the others that I've posted here, in that it focuses specifically on parts of the book that contain advice for entrepreneurs, rather than on the broader questions of technology and the economy. As always, look at the speaker notes for
World Affairs Council, 2013, Summer Teacher Institute, Humanities and STEM
The Future is Here
Next Level Global Education and Social Studies Design Workshop
Teaching in a Time of Transition, World Affairs Council, Summer Institute on International Affairs, June 24-28. 2013
People are slowly beginning to realize that the times, they are a-changing. When it comes to the future of work and automation, it’s not a question of how, but when. We usually only react when it’s already too late. But this time, the writings on the wall are too overwhelming to just ignore them.
Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying that you should stock up on guns, build a shelter and prepare for Skynet. But it’s probably a good idea to at least start considering the idea that things might change faster than you think. And in the end, we would hate to say we told you so. So start preparing right now with these 6 crucial tips to survive the second machine age.
Présentation du Keynote du jeudi 20 octobre 2016 - M. Paul RamseyACSG Section Montréal
Présentation du Keynote du jeudi 20 octobre 2016 - M. Paul Ramsey dans le cadre de Géomatique 2016
Très actif dans le domaine de l’Open Source, il a mis sur pied une entreprise spécialisée dans le développement de logiciels de géomatique. Il nous a exposé son expérience concernant la symbiose de la technologie et de la culture. Location Omniscience, Free data, Free software, free machine et Utility computing, un discours sur les tendances technologiques accompagné d’un peu de philosophie. Il nous a exposé à quel point la convergence de l’accessibilité des technologies, l’abondance des données et les faibles coûts des services de traitement ouvrent la porte à un univers infini de possibilités. Il a également amené l’auditoire à réfléchir sur le fait que nous sommes épiés en tout temps, que ce soit par des caméras, des drones, des algorithmes ou autres, nous sommes surveillés en permanence.
What's Next? Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society and Rebooting DemocracyNino Lo Cascio
Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society & Rebooting Democracy;
- IT Industrialisation
- Information Explosion
- "Everyware" - The Mobile Internet
- Natural UI
- Aging Population
- Digital Natives
- New emerging democracy model
- Scenarios 2020
Open Data: From the Information Age to the Action Age (PDF with notes)Tim O'Reilly
This is the presentation I made at the UK Department for International Aid/Omidyar Network OpenUp! conference in London on November 13, 2012. I talk about open government not as a platform for transparency or citizen engagement, but for a developer ecosystem building useful services. A video of this talk is available at http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OIlxdpfu71o
Yet another version of my book talk, this time at Harvard Business School, on March 28, 2018. This one had fewer slides with less connecting narrative so that I could spend more time interacting with the audience. I think it went pretty well. As usual, the speaker notes contain the narrative that goes with the slides, which are mostly images.
My keynote at OSCON 2018 in Portland. What I love about open source software, and what that teaches us about how we can have a better future by the better design of online marketplaces and the algorithms that manage them - and our entire economy. The narrative is in the speaker notes.
Instead of fretting over how easily and soon humans will be replaced, leaders would be better advised to think about the future of automation as interlacing machine strengths with those of humans. Work will need redesigning, but the AI enabled automation – done well – can unlock economic growth, fuel innovation and make work more humanA presentation given at @FutureheadsUK Leaders of Change, at CaptialOne, on 5th December 2018, by Kevin McCullagh.
My plenary talk to the California Workforce Association Conference in Monterey, CA, on September 5, 2018. I talked about the role of technology to augment people rather than replace them from my book WTF? What's the Future and Why It's Up to Us, and my ideas about AI and distributional economics, in the context of today's education and workforce development systems. I also summarize some of the work Code for America has been doing on the current state of the California Workforce Development ecosystem.
Africa has a certain flair for innovation - this keynote explores how Africa has managed to continue to innovate despite disadvantages. It covers Alternative Energy, Mobile Payments, Crowdsourcing, Scratch Card distribution channels and Alternative Power.
Stories of a continent solving real problems, not #FirstWorldProblems!
What is the future of transportation? We at the Institute of Customer Experience share our insights by analyzing the trends in technological advancements in transportation, which you can find on our Facebook page: facebook.com/UXTrendspotting
My keynote at the 2018 New Profit Gathering of Leaders conference in Boston on May 17, 2018. I talk about the lessons from technology platforms, how they teach us what is wrong with our economy, and the possibilities of AI for creating better, fairer, more effective decisions about "who gets what and why" in the economy.
In recent years, access to the Internet has become increasingly important for individuals’ and
communities’ economic productivity, as well as improved access to goods and services, education,
government services and more. Some in the developed world, including First Lady Michelle Obama [1],
have even begun to refer to Internet connectivity as a universal right.
In reality, however, Internet access is very far from universal. As of 2013, 4.4 billion people — over
60% of the world’s population — were not connected to the Internet [2]. And, while Internet penetration
is increasing, the rate of its increase has slowed slightly, from around 15% a year in the mid ’00s to
around 10% in the late ’00s. If this trend continues, over half the global population will still be offline in
2017.
Project Loon is a research and development project being developed by Google with the mission of providing Internet access to rural and remote areas. The project uses high-altitude balloons placed in the stratosphere at an altitude of about 32 km to create an aerial wireless network with up to 3G-like speeds. Because of the project's seemingly outlandish mission goals, Google named it "Project Loon"
Project Loon is a research and development project being developed by Google
Project loon is a network of balloon Travelling on edge of space , designed to connect with the people In Rural and Remote areas.
Internet of Things [infusion 5th september 2014]AlquimiaWRG
Let you be infusioned about Internet of Things.
According to Federico, IoT is matter of housewares, entertainment, advertising and obviously business.
Discover what he means when he writes that normal things, when connected, become contextual, funny, meaningful, friendly!
Designing the future of Augmented RealityCarina Ngai
Presented on March 4th, 2016 at Interaction16 in Helsinki, Finland.
Until now, augmented reality has so far been mostly a sci-fi vision that overlays visual information to what we see in the physical world. It’s widely perceived as a “cool and interesting feature” for brands and advertising, but doesn’t have much practicality yet. To harness the real power of AR, which includes geolocation, image recognition, we believe that a more utilitarian visual search would be next.
To design for such possibilities, we begin to question even the fundamental basis of AR. For example, what would AR become beyond a rich visual layer? Will this change people’s motivation and behavior to use AR? How can we redefine AR to be a tool to give augmented information on objects? And how we can speculate its usage in the future?
For one week each year Sin City plays host to the next-generation of innovations and technologies before they’re introduced to the marketplace. This year, more than 200,000 attendees came to CES to walk through 2.5 million square feet of trade show space to see the latest drones, connected cars, TVs and smartphones, and even a VR device that gives you the sensation of flying through the sky like a superhero.
Y&R sent some of our brightest minds to take in the sights and sounds of CES 2016. Here’s what they had to say:
Your monthly dose of the latest trends locally and abroad. This month we look at enhancing the experience and connection of being human in ways that go beyond what was thought possible.
Tish Shute, Director AR/VR, Corporate Technology Strategy, Huawei
A talk from Inspire Track at AWE USA 2017 - the largest conference for AR+VR in Santa Clara, California May 31- June 2, 2017.
XR is intelligent and interactive connecting real humans and physical objects with digital agents and entities. VR/AR will evolve into XR to become the future interface for Cloud Computing, IoT, Big Data, Prediction, Self-driving cars, Personalized Medicine, Robots, Drones, Cryptocurrency, Smart Cities, and AI. Social VR and AR will connect people in new and powerful ways but XR will connect the intelligence of people to the intelligence of machines in a space shared and understood by both. This talk will look at this new and intimate relationship between humans and intelligent agents.
http://AugmentedWorldExpo.com
This talk looks at the future of AR/VR and the new and intimate relationship between humans and intelligent agents that XR - the next generation of AR/VR, makes possible. XR is intelligent and interactive connecting real humans and physical objects with digital agents and entities. VR/AR will evolve into XR to become the future interface for Cloud Computing, IoT, Big Data, Prediction, Self-driving cars, Personalized Medicine, Robots, Drones, Cryptocurrency, Smart Cities, and AI. Social VR and AR will connect people in new and powerful ways but XR will connect the intelligence of people to the intelligence of machines in a space shared and understood by both.
Possibilities and perils of the data-driven world.joshuakauffman
I gave this lecture and led a discussion at the Future Insight summit in Oslo, Norway, March 13, 2014.
This was an introduction to subjects relating to the data-driven world, including a lengthier bit on the Quantified Self.
I improvised from the presenter notes.They give a pretty good sense of the contour of the talk.
In the Q and A session, people were mostly concerned about privacy implications of personal data collection.
My short answer is that I am also concerned, and think we need to broaden the discussion of privacy so that it transcends the concept of unwanted exposure and recenters itself on questions relating to the terms of exchange of personal data as they relate to social and economic value.
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signmesh snapshot - tech of tomorrow (that’s already here) signmesh
Explore the best of technology. See what kind of new tech advancements are already up and running in industries such as: beauty, fashion, entertainment, food & nutrition, automotive, health and cities & living.
frogs from around the world predict the 15 most significant technology trends you will see in 2014. Check out the list and cast your votes on what you think is Likely or Not Likely: http://fro.gd/1ksg2iS
Principles for how to think about the future of technology + current state of the art in robotics and automation.
Presented at Trendwatching.com's Trend Seminars in New York City September 2015.
The Future of Education (Graded School, São Paulo)Michell Zappa
Updated keynote presentation about the future of education and technology for Graded International School's innovation summit in São Paulo on 21 January 2013.
Keynote presentation from Campus Party Berlin on 2012-08-25. Video of the talk can be found here: http://envisioningtech.com/keynote-at-campus-party-berlin/
The Art of the Pitch: WordPress Relationships and SalesLaura Byrne
Clients don’t know what they don’t know. What web solutions are right for them? How does WordPress come into the picture? How do you make sure you understand scope and timeline? What do you do if sometime changes?
All these questions and more will be explored as we talk about matching clients’ needs with what your agency offers without pulling teeth or pulling your hair out. Practical tips, and strategies for successful relationship building that leads to closing the deal.
Neuro-symbolic is not enough, we need neuro-*semantic*Frank van Harmelen
Neuro-symbolic (NeSy) AI is on the rise. However, simply machine learning on just any symbolic structure is not sufficient to really harvest the gains of NeSy. These will only be gained when the symbolic structures have an actual semantics. I give an operational definition of semantics as “predictable inference”.
All of this illustrated with link prediction over knowledge graphs, but the argument is general.
"Impact of front-end architecture on development cost", Viktor TurskyiFwdays
I have heard many times that architecture is not important for the front-end. Also, many times I have seen how developers implement features on the front-end just following the standard rules for a framework and think that this is enough to successfully launch the project, and then the project fails. How to prevent this and what approach to choose? I have launched dozens of complex projects and during the talk we will analyze which approaches have worked for me and which have not.
Builder.ai Founder Sachin Dev Duggal's Strategic Approach to Create an Innova...Ramesh Iyer
In today's fast-changing business world, Companies that adapt and embrace new ideas often need help to keep up with the competition. However, fostering a culture of innovation takes much work. It takes vision, leadership and willingness to take risks in the right proportion. Sachin Dev Duggal, co-founder of Builder.ai, has perfected the art of this balance, creating a company culture where creativity and growth are nurtured at each stage.
Let's dive deeper into the world of ODC! Ricardo Alves (OutSystems) will join us to tell all about the new Data Fabric. After that, Sezen de Bruijn (OutSystems) will get into the details on how to best design a sturdy architecture within ODC.
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportAlan Dix
Paper presented at SYNERGY workshop at AVI 2024, Genoa, Italy. 3rd June 2024
https://alandix.com/academic/papers/synergy2024-epistemic/
As machine learning integrates deeper into human-computer interactions, the concept of epistemic interaction emerges, aiming to refine these interactions to enhance system adaptability. This approach encourages minor, intentional adjustments in user behaviour to enrich the data available for system learning. This paper introduces epistemic interaction within the context of human-system communication, illustrating how deliberate interaction design can improve system understanding and adaptation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate the potential of epistemic interaction to significantly advance human-computer interaction by leveraging intuitive human communication strategies to inform system design and functionality, offering a novel pathway for enriching user-system engagements.
Key Trends Shaping the Future of Infrastructure.pdfCheryl Hung
Keynote at DIGIT West Expo, Glasgow on 29 May 2024.
Cheryl Hung, ochery.com
Sr Director, Infrastructure Ecosystem, Arm.
The key trends across hardware, cloud and open-source; exploring how these areas are likely to mature and develop over the short and long-term, and then considering how organisations can position themselves to adapt and thrive.
Slack (or Teams) Automation for Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Soluti...Jeffrey Haguewood
Sidekick Solutions uses Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutions Apricot) and automation solutions to integrate data for business workflows.
We believe integration and automation are essential to user experience and the promise of efficient work through technology. Automation is the critical ingredient to realizing that full vision. We develop integration products and services for Bonterra Case Management software to support the deployment of automations for a variety of use cases.
This video focuses on the notifications, alerts, and approval requests using Slack for Bonterra Impact Management. The solutions covered in this webinar can also be deployed for Microsoft Teams.
Interested in deploying notification automations for Bonterra Impact Management? Contact us at sales@sidekicksolutionsllc.com to discuss next steps.
Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey 2024 by 91mobiles.pdf91mobiles
91mobiles recently conducted a Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey in which we asked over 3,000 respondents about the TV they own, aspects they look at on a new TV, and their TV buying preferences.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 3DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 3. In this session, we will cover desktop automation along with UI automation.
Topics covered:
UI automation Introduction,
UI automation Sample
Desktop automation flow
Pradeep Chinnala, Senior Consultant Automation Developer @WonderBotz and UiPath MVP
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
GraphRAG is All You need? LLM & Knowledge GraphGuy Korland
Guy Korland, CEO and Co-founder of FalkorDB, will review two articles on the integration of language models with knowledge graphs.
1. Unifying Large Language Models and Knowledge Graphs: A Roadmap.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08302
2. Microsoft Research's GraphRAG paper and a review paper on various uses of knowledge graphs:
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/graphrag-unlocking-llm-discovery-on-narrative-private-data/
Transcript: Selling digital books in 2024: Insights from industry leaders - T...BookNet Canada
The publishing industry has been selling digital audiobooks and ebooks for over a decade and has found its groove. What’s changed? What has stayed the same? Where do we go from here? Join a group of leading sales peers from across the industry for a conversation about the lessons learned since the popularization of digital books, best practices, digital book supply chain management, and more.
Link to video recording: https://bnctechforum.ca/sessions/selling-digital-books-in-2024-insights-from-industry-leaders/
Presented by BookNet Canada on May 28, 2024, with support from the Department of Canadian Heritage.
2. Welcome and thanks for being here.
Today we'll talk about technology and how to anticipate the future.
3. My name is Michell Zappa
I’m a technology futurist and professed sci-fi geek.
4. Patterns for technology thinking
Presented by Michell Zappa
December 2016 – Amsterdam
In 2011, I founded an organization called Envisioning.
Envisioning means "to picture a future event”, but carries a positive connotation which I particularly care
for.
If the future is something we create, then we should do so with optimism.
5. Our forecasting work is visual and technology-focused.
Started with speculative infographics on themes like Education and Health.
6. Nowadays we develop interactive visualization tools and use crowdsourced intelligence for estimating
technological progress.
Most of our work is published for free on envisioning.io
7. We have collaborators on all continents, and have worked with organizations around the world.
8. We have worked with organizations in both public & private sector.
11. Quite a few of you are worried about tech and perhaps where it’s heading.
Tech is fast-moving & unpredictable, but it’s better understood from a different perspective.
I will present 6 principles for how to think about technology over time.
12. Most of you have probably heard of Unicorns — the fabled $1B+ tech companies.
13. But today I’m presenting a different mythical animal: the Centaur.
14. Unlike the ancient Greek centaur, this centaur was coined ~ 20 years ago.
The story begins in New York City with a famous chess championship –
Between IBM’s Deep Blue supercomputer & chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov.
15. 1997 was the year Supercomputers finally became fast enough to beat the world’s best chess players.
16. You probably remember how the game ended – with Deep Blue famously winning against Kasparov.
20. Leon, Spain
Kasparov organizes the world’s first championship in Freestyle Chess –– sometimes called Centaur Chess.
In Freestyle Chess, human players are assisted by computers, pieces of software and database tools.
21. Instead of pitting Man versus Machine, Centaur chess is all about having Man and Machine collaborating.
22. As it turns out, for the last decade, the world’s best chess players have essentially become centaurs.
Since 2005, championships where grandmasters, supercomputers and Centaurs participate, have started being won by centaur players.
Centaurs are generally equipped with consumer PCs, not supercomputers.
By combining human intelligence with technological intelligence, these players tend to outplay either.
23. In other words, centaurs can outperform both humans and machines in the domain of chess.
24. But interestingly enough, the Centaur phenomenon is popping up in other domains.
For example, when Netflix purchased the rights to House of Cards, this represented their first big bet on custom programming.
Being a tech company with over 10 million customers, they decided to use data to maximize the chance of the series becoming a hit.
25. Instead of trusting a traditional casting process, the showrunners elected Kevin Spacey and David Fincher by correlating viewer data with IMDB data.
By looking at the data, they identified actual viewer preferences with successful casting investments.
https://www.wired.com/insights/2014/03/big-data-lessons-netflix/
26. Human intelligence was augmented by machine intelligence.
Netflix's investment risk was minimized, and the series became a massive success.
27. We also find this behavior at BuzzFeed, one of the world's fastest-growing media brands.
Customer metrics are intensely analyzed to determine what clicks and what's shared.
Editors and journalists access data dashboards to learn about viewer behavior and therefore maximize their impact.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/daozers/how-buzzfeed-thinks-about-data-and-some-charts-too
28. Amazon acts similarly when routing workers throughout their warehouse. The system has data on workers location through custom technology. Workers follow
instructions on which isle to visit, or which robot to hand parcels over to. Amazon even measures the height of each employee to make sure they’re optimized for
each product pickup.
http://mentalfloss.com/article/61249/13-secrets-amazon-warehouse-employees
29. Formula 1 is arguably a Centaur sport.
F1 racing is the careful interplay between a highly trained human with a tightly tuned machine.
30. This is especially visible from behind the scenes, where we notice each racer has multiple humans and multiple machines in the team.
38. We usually think about technology in terms of its artifacts.
The devices we wear, the services we use, the gadgets we use.
39. In fact, technology is everything that surrounds us.
Fire, agriculture and money are examples of technologies deeply ingrained in society. (To the point of becoming invisible.)
45. Example of something that got faster & cheaper.
2016 NES costs €70, is 1/5 the size of 1986 NES, and comes with the equivalent of € 3.000 worth of games.
46. The effect of exponential change indirectly affects everything around us.
We see it in tourism, where Streetview has enabled us to see virtually any inhabited location on earth, because of affordable geo-located 360º cameras.
58. A century ago, the car was predicted as “faster horse”.
More speed & less manure, but otherwise similar.
59. But nobody really anticipated the traffic jam as a direct, but unintended consequence of inventing the car.
Photo = China, evidently :-)
60. This is because a mis-match between our expectations and how reality actually behaves.
Our perception of the world is largely linear, whereas technology makes certain aspects of reality behave exponentially.
We overestimate the short-term effects of technology while underestimating it's long-term effects.
65. Here, I have indicated 6 organizations which have 2 things in common:
They have each been around for decades (or centuries)
Their business models are all being encroached on by emerging technologies
67. Meanwhile, these startups are increasingly being acquired by technology giants.
In other words, it seems everyone now competes with trillion-dollar tech companies.
68. If technology is everything we make, that means all companies are technology companies.
69. And if all companies are technology companies, that means there is “technology industry”.
We are ALL in the technology industry.
70. Consider technology a toolbox, not an industry.
Pick & choose the techniques, platforms, softwares and business models that best suit your organization.
71.
72. Fifth pattern: all technologies are the combination of other technologies.
84. Sometimes the technology is even named after the Sci-Fi from where it was derived (Star Trek → Motorola StarTAC)
85. All technologies begin as ideas. These ideas can exist in the pages of a science fiction novel, or in the head of an Airbus engineer.
Some ideas are further developed into concepts. Some concepts become prototypes. Some prototypes eventually develop into products.
This does not mean all ideas become products, but that all products begin as ideas.
Science fiction plays a considerable role in developing the public imagination of what is possible.
86. We can look ahead at Sci-Fi inspired emerging technologies currently being developed.
Knightscope robotic patrol is the first step towards a RocoCop future.
87. ALIEN presents the idea of asteroid mining.
Recently, Luxembourg started developing legal frameworks to permit asteroid mining in deep space. Also, the company Planetary Resources.
http://www.spaceresources.public.lu/en/index.html
88. Arguably, VR is the first step towards the Star Trek Holodeck.
We can expect a LOT more of this as more and more technologies become possible.
Protip: consume more Sci-Fi!