HRF CEO, Dr Brent Jenkins was guest speaker at the Business Club in October and challenged guests to play their part in collaborating to create a shared vision for the Region. If the Hunter is to be successful in meeting new economic, social, environmental and political challenges it will need to face, and address, some difficult questions.

1. We need to talk about the Hunter.
‐ Creating a Vision for our Region
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Dr Brent Jenkins
Chief Executive Officer ‐ HRF
14 October 2014

2. We need to talk about the Hunter
• The Hunter’s economy
How can we ensure future economic success?
• Our community
How are we faring socially, especially young people?
• Change is needed
Where is the leadership, strategy and investment?
• Shared vision
How can we reach consensus on our Region’s future?
• Hunter Research Foundation
What is HRF doing to start these conversations?
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3. Hunter – Looking forward
The Hunter is Australia’s largest regional
economy and we should be proud of what
we have achieved
But…
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THE ECONOMY

4. Short-term Outlook
The Hunter economy rather subdued in the short term
Unemployment is rising:
- above NSW average
- further rise likely
Weak business investment
and confidence for some time:
- employment intentions
- capital expenditure
One bright light on the
immediate horizon –
construction
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THE ECONOMY

5. Medium-term Outlook
Things likely to get tougher as economic base continues to transition
• Modest overall employment growth expected, with increasing
shifts from mining and manufacturing to services
• We need to remain a region that adds-value to our natural
resources – manufacturing, wine , equine, clean energy –
based on innovation and serving export markets
• Locally focused services are generally low economic-value
creating – retail, health care, education, tattoos, coffee – and
growth largely dependent on increases in population
• High value or export-oriented service industries will also be
needed to maintain the economic value created in the region:
industrial design, financial services, logistics, creative
industries
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THE ECONOMY

6. Our health care sector will increasingly be required to cost- effectively
manage our ageing population
Inter-censual change, 2006 to 2011,
population by age groups - Hunter Region
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Government spending by age cohort
Australia, all governments,
000’s per person, 2011 ‐ 12
Medium-term Outlook
DEMOGRAPHICS

7. The Hunter Region will be impacted by a variety of global trends over
the coming years
The Asian century
Ageing Population
Limited Resources
Key enabling technologies
Digitisation of the economy
Changing consumption
patterns – “mass
customisation”
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3D Printing
Long-term Outlook
TECHNOLOGY CHANGES

8. Hunter – Looking forward
Our future will be shaped by becoming globally-competitive in industries
where we can sustain competitive advantage through innovation
We know this, but we still seem to be getting nowhere near positioning
the region for a sustainable future
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WWED Insanity: doing the same
thing over and over again and
expecting different results.
Albert Einstein
How do we break out of this “cycle of insanity”?
How do we design and create change at the regional level that will lead
to actions that enhance our future ?

9. Hunter – Creating Change
Creating change requires leadership, vision, strategy and investment
Eight Stage Process
1. Establishing a sense of urgency
2. Creating the guiding coalition
3. Developing a vision and strategy
4. Communicating the change vision
5. Empowering broad-based action
6. Generating short-term wins
7. Consolidating gains and producing
more change
8. Anchoring new approaches in the culture
Source: “Leading Change” John P Kotter
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LEADERSHIP
VISION & STRATEGY
INVESTMENT

10. Hunter- We need to change
Q1. Who is leading the region?
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DIVERSIFICATION VS FRAGMENTATION
Hunter
Government (?)
Business (?)
Community (?)
University (?)
Barry Jones – Knowledge Nation
Who is championing the region for the long term ?

11. Hunter- We need to change
Key Performance Indicators: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
No 1. Unemployment Rate
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COMFORTABLE VS COMPLACENT
Q2. Is there a sense of urgency?
“The International Monetary Fund expects
Australia will have the worst jobless rate in
the Asia-Pacific region over the next two
years, bar the Philippines.”
NH 11/10/14
Youth unemployment rates in Newcastle are
soaring above the state average, with a key
regional welfare organisation blaming a lack
of traineeships and other job-creation
initiatives for the crisis.
(32.6% 15-19, 12.5% 15-24)
NH 17/04/2014
MID AND UPPER HUNTER REGION
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
HUNTER
BALANCE
NSW
MAY 11 MAY 12 MAY 13 MAY 14
SOURCE: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Monthly Labour Force Survey
Where will our children gain
employment?

12. Employment Intentions Capital Expenditure
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0.20
0.16
0.12
0.08
0.04
0.00
Average for June: 2000 to 2010
MAR 09 MAR 10 MAR 11 MAR 12 MAR 13 MAR 14
SOURCE: Hunter Valley Research Foundation business surveys
Hunter- We need to change
COMFORTABLE VS COMPLACENT
Q2. Is there a sense of urgency?
Key Performance Indicators:
No 2. Business confidence
Who will invest to create the jobs of the future ?

13. Hunter- We need to change
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COMFORTABLE VS COMPLACENT
Q2. Is there a sense of urgency?
Key Performance Indicators:
No 3. International competitiveness and innovation
Australia ranks 21 in the World
Economic Forum’s Global
Competitive Index 2013-2014.
We were 20 in 2012-2014 and
20 in 2011-2012.
Competitiveness of Hunter –
Innovation
30 out of 55 RDAs (1= best, 55
= worst) Regional Australia Institute
New goods and services introduced in
previous 12 months - Hunter Region
37
%
26
%
Are we holding ground or treading water?

14. Hunter- We need to change
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COMFORTABLE VS COMPLACENT
Q3. Is there a clear and shared vision for the region’s future?
Characteristics of an effective
vision
• Imaginable
• Desirable
• Feasible
• Focused
• Flexible
• Communicable
“My vision is not what’s important to you. The only vision that
motivates you is your vision”
Bill O’Brien – CEO Hanover Insurance

15. Hunter- We need to change
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STRATEGIC VS EXPEDIENT
Q4. Are there strategies to achieve this vision?
Newcastle Urban Renewal Strategy 2013
Hunter Strategic Infrastructure Plan
Draft NSW Freight and Ports Strategy
Transport for NSW November 2012
State Infrastructure Strategy 2012-2032
Infrastructure NSW October 2012
NSW 2021 – A Plan to Make NSW Number One
NSW Premier & Cabinet September 2011
Draft NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan
Transport NSW September 2012
State of Australian Cities
Department of Infrastructure and Transport December 2011
Hunter Regional Plan 2012-2022
RDA – Hunter September 2012
Upper Hunter Draft Strategic Regional Land
Use Plan
NSW Government March 2012
Lower Hunter Regional Strategy
NSW Planning October 2006
Hunter Investment Prospectus 2012
RDA – Hunter 2012

16. Hunter- We need to change
Hunter represents 8% of State’s economy.
Are we seeing a level of investment back to
sustain/grow this activity into the future?
Newcastle Revitalisation
Committed $340 million ?????
Hunter Investment Fund
20 Years - $350 million
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STRATEGIC VS EXPEDIENT
Q5. Do we have investment required to secure this future ?
Infrastructure For The Future
North West Rail Link - $8.3 Billion
South West Rail Link - $2.0 Billion
West Connect - $14.9 Billion
NorthConnex - $3.0 Billion
Royal North Shore – $1.3 Billion
Bangaroo - $6.0 Billion
International Convention Centre -
$1.1 Billion
TOTAL = $36.6 Billion
Resources For Regions
2013-14 - $118.0 million
2013-14 - $116.9 million

17. FUTURE PROOFING THE REGION
WWED. We can't solve problems
by using the same kind of thinking
we used when we created them.
Albert Einstein
New regional conversations

18. New regional conversations
Newcastle, NSW
• Created by an independent consultant and community taskforce
• Ideas received from the community fed into a Master Plan
• Vision for a connected city for families, tourists and business
• Living City concept to bring confidence and prosperity to the region
• Generating economic development and population growth
• $200 million in private investment over 5-8 year period
• 1100 ongoing jobs in a Region struggling with high unemployment rates
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Devonport, TAS

19. New regional conversations - Hunter
Hunter has great potential but our future prosperity is NOT assured
To create a shared vision and secure investment requires
Æ Strategic regional conversations
Ground Rules:
• Data and Analysis Intensive – Fact not fallacy
• Create value for the entire region, not individuals or interest
groups
• Include all key stakeholders, including our young people
• Open, independent and transparent process
• Supported by all levels of government with investment –
hold them to account!
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20. Hunter Research Foundation (HRF) – Today
HRF is a regionally-based organisation with national reach
COMMUNITY BASED
• Not-for-profit research organisation established in 1956
• Governed by a voluntary Board of Directors representing
the Hunter Region community
• 24 Staff – 80 Casuals
REGIONAL RESEARCH
• 125 Sponsors generating $300,000 per annum that
has been focused on regional data gathering
• Supported by all Hunter LGAs, major corporates,
local businesses and the community
FEE-FOR-SERVICE RESEARCH
• Conducts fee-for-service research work in areas of:
Transport planning, Health, Community attitudes
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21. HRF – Looking forward
Information is NOT knowledge Albert Einstein
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www.brainyquote.com
The HRF is re-building its regional research
agenda
We will address key strategic issues that will
impact the region
Our focus will be on providing:
Insights that move the Hunter forward towards
becoming an internationally-competitive and
resilient Region

22. HRF – Looking forward
For the Hunter to be internationally competitive, it must
grow into a global knowledge-based economy
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REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS
Regional competitiveness is the capability of an economy to attract
and maintain firms with a stable or rising market share in an
activity while maintaining stable or increasing standards of living.
In order to be competitive in the globalising knowledge economy,
the OECD countries need to invest in their innovation systems at
the national and regional levels.
As countries are turning their production towards value-added
segments and knowledge-intensive products and services, there is
greater dependency on access to new technologies, knowledge
and skills.

23. HRF – Looking forward
Social resilience sees community adapt and change
through difficult times without leaving anyone behind
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REGIONAL RESILIENCE
The HVRF Wellbeing index points to
the current state of a social
community.
• Happiness with their life
• Satisfaction with what they have
achieved to date
• Satisfaction with their current
standard of living
• Satisfaction with their life as a
whole
• Feeling of being valued by those
who know them
• Optimism about their future
The ability to maintain a high state
of Wellbeing during times of change
(Resilience) is impacted by.
• Education levels that provide
employment options
• An income that can sustain an
acceptable quality of life
• Affordable and secure housing
• Strong and supportive
relationships – community and
private
• A high level of physical and
mental health

24. HRF – Looking forward
Our unique regional research programs will look holistically at the key
areas that will ensure the region’s future
Internationally Competitive Resilient
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Education
Employment
Income
Health
Innovation
Investment
Collaboration
Infrastructure
Skills
Connectedness
Housing and
Neighbourhoods
Relationships
Crime and Safety
Civics and
Environment
Project 1.
Manufacturing Sector
Project 1.
Youth Connectedness

25. HRF – Looking forward
HRF is identifying evidence to inform real solutions to help a key
Hunter industry sector to become more competitive
HRF Research question: What are
barriers and enablers to expanding
manufacturing markets?
• 600 research hours – 45 in-depth
interviews
• Working with key stakeholders:
HunterNet, Australian Industry
Group and Hunter Business
Chamber, University of
Newcastle, TAFE
Results presented at 28 November
Economic Breakfast
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REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS – MANUFACTURING
Find out more at www.hrf.com.au

26. HRF – Looking Forward
Regional Resilience – Young
people in the Hunter
The FACTS
Australia vs OECD
15-19 year olds still in education (79%) place
Australia 27th out of 29 OECD nations
Australia’s NEET (not in education, employment or training) percentage
of 8.3 per cent places us 24th amongst 29 OECD nations
Hunter vs Rest of Australia (1=Best 55 = Worst)
28th for youth unemployment
35th for welfare dependence
37th in terms of the proportion of early school leavers
No shortage of programs Æ not changing outcomes
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27. HRF – Looking Forward
Regional Resilience – Young
people in the Hunter
HRF Response Find out more at www.hrf.com.au
HRF research question:
What are barriers to young people in the Hunter transitioning
effectively from education to employment?
5 Stage Research Project – YOUnite
Focused on listening to young people in the Hunter and influential
stakeholders to deliver new insights that lift the horizon for our
young people
Results Youth Summit February 2015
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28. HRF – Looking Forward
HRF – FUTURE-PROOFING THE HUNTER
Hunter Research Foundation
Born out of crisis – to gather regional
data and identify solutions
Our region is facing new economic, social,
environmental and political challenges …..
… we must adapt or face decline
If we collaborate under a shared
vision we will be successful
Trust HRF research, data and information ….
…. work with us to future-proof our Region for
generations to come
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“…you better start swimmin’
or you'll sink like a stone…”

29. Future‐proofing our Region for generations to come
Stay connected with HRF news & join us in conversation
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www.hrf.com.au