The document summarizes economic indicators for the Hunter region of Australia. It finds that: 1) National economic growth is slowing, and the local Hunter region is experiencing some softening, with falling house prices, declines in new housing approvals especially for apartments, and weaker business performance and consumer confidence. 2) The labor market is experiencing growth in part-time jobs while maintaining a low unemployment rate similar to New South Wales. 3) The overall regional outlook shows weakening optimism among households and businesses.

1. Presented by Dr Anthea Bill
Hunter Research Foundation Centre
26 JULY 2019
HUNTER ECONOMIC
INDICATORS

2. • Macro: national growth slows
• Local: Hunter some softening
• Housing market trends /
Investment pipeline
• Regional outlook
PRESENTATION
OUTLINE

3. GDP GROWTH: UNDERWHELMING

4. PUBLIC EXPENDITURE:
CONTRIBUTION TO GDP
Source: ABS, National Accounts.
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Government
consumption
Household
consumption
Dwelling
Construction
Non-dwelling
construction
Net exports
Points Contribution to Growth in GDP (Dec 18 - Mar 19)

5. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
Source: IMF, 2019.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Real GDP Growth (year on year %)
Advanced Economies
Australia
Emerging
Markets

6. International –
growth slows.
Household sector -
spending subdued
over longer-term
Coal -
weakened Chinese
import demand
impacts prices.
OTHER MACRO TRENDS

7. JUNE 2019
HUNTER REGION
ECONOMY

8. LABOUR MARKET:
PART-TIME GROWTH
Mining CAPEX
Drops

9. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

10. HOUSING PRICES: FALLING

11. 0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
MAR 09 MAR 11 MAR 13 MAR 15 MAR 17 MAR 19
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
NSW (RHS)
HUNTER
(LHS)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
MAR 09 MAR 11 MAR 13 MAR 15 MAR 17 MAR 19
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
NSW (RHS)
HUNTER
(LHS)
APPROVALS: FALLING
New Houses Other (town houses, apartments etc)
Source: ABS, Building Approvals.

12. PULSE SURVEYS
Phone
surveys
300
Households
300
Businesses

13. BUSINESS PERFORMANCE: WEAKER
* Figure has been interpolated for June 2015

14. NATIONAL BUSINESS
PERFORMANCE
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
NAB business conditions
Retail sales growth
(% annual)
Source: ABS; National Australia Bank.

15. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Social Media Dedicated
Website
Taking Orders
Goods & Services
Online
Accept Payment
Goods and
Services Online*
Mobile
Optimised
Website*
2014 2015 2016 2017 2019
BUSINESS ICT
Source: HRF Centre Hunter Business Pulse Surveys.
Survey not run in 2018 *Questions not asked in 2014

16. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Social Media Dedicated
Website
Taking Orders
Goods &
Services
Online
Accept
Payment
Goods and
Services
Online*
Mobile
Optimised
Website*
Digital
strategy
BUSINESS ICT
Source: HRF Centre Hunter Business Pulse Surveys. *Yellow Digit Report 2018.
Australia, 2018*
Hunter, 2019

17. CONSUMER SPENDING: SOFTENS
5 year average

18. REGIONAL OUTLOOK:
HOUSEHOLD OPTIMISM WEAKENS

19. • Part-time jobs growth
• Unemployment rate low; convergence with NSW
SUMMARY
• House prices fall
• New housing approvals, especially apartments
• Business performance and confidence
• Consumer spending and confidence
• Regional outlook for households and businesses

20. THANK YOU
Hunter Region Economic Indicators - June 2019
Available as you leave today