This document discusses trends in the global energy market, including declining U.S. gasoline consumption and increasing ethanol exports. It also notes that while U.S. oil production has increased, consumption remains high and prices have fallen. The document recommends ways for biofuel producers to solidify their position, such as engaging in research, industry collaboration, and focusing on carbon intensity. It suggests diversifying product offerings and maximizing revenue from corn oil and other co-products.
2. This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 2
3. This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 3
U.S. Motor Gasoline Consumption by year
4. U.S. Exports of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels) This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 4
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2010
324
519
1,153
973
414
387
603
707
929
834
930
1,717
2011
1,364
1,425
2,003
2,865
1,743
1,604
3,036
1,246
2,525
2,895
3,634
4,117
2012
1,819
1,785
1,992
1,775
1,397
1,410
1,519
1,206
1,191
1,284
965
1,313
2013
1,518
1,017
1,312
967
952
796
830
1,182
1,299
1,206
2,134
1,525
2014
2,054
1,605
2,139
1,585
1,263
1,431
1,600
1,292
1,354
5. Corn
Market Trends
Dow
Natural Gas ($ per MM Btu)
Oil - WTI Crude
5
1996 2005 2014
6. Crude Oil in the United States This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 6
2013
2014
Daily Consumption
*source: eia.gov
18.96 mm barrels/day
18.91*mm barrels/day
*estimated
Daily Production
*source: eia.gov
7.46 mm barrels/day
8.57* mm barrels/day
*estimated
Price
$100/barrel
$69/barrel
Peaked in 1970 at ~10mm barrels/day
7. Crude Oil in the United States This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 7
8. This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 8
9. A Perfect Storm
•
Reduced demand for crude oil
•
Increased crude production/improved technology
•
Strong U.S. Dollar This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 9
•
Declining rig count
•
Drilling and completion costs make shale reserves dependent on high crude prices
•
Shale reservoir development become marginal at low crude prices
10. This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 10
11. Solidify Competitive Position This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 11
•
Be proactive vs. reactive
•
Engage in long-term vision
•
Maintain and repair aging valuable assets
•
Lessons learned: focus on liquidity
•
Work together to broaden biofuels industry
•
Research & development
•
Industry collaboration
•
Trade association (i.e. Prime the Pump)
•
Technology partners
•
Focus on carbon intensity in decision making
•
California-driven today
•
Increased relevancy in the future
12. This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 12
13. This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 13
14. Broadening the Industry
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Corn oil to renewable diesel
•
Renewable diesel to jet fuel
•
Cellulosic component
•
Ethanol as a “building block”
•
Ethanol to jet fuel
•
Ethanol to aromatics
•
CO2 to Gold This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 14
Ultimately, facilities will move toward a true biorefinery model where each plant manufactures products specific to its geographic location, market, plant enhancement, or other synergy.
15. Maturing Industry
•
Many plants with little or no debt
•
Plant consolidation vs. independent
•
Many plants with strong equity positions
•
Uncertain policy environment
•
Aging plants will require increased focus on maintenance and repair
•
Shifting philosophy to product diversification
•
How to best deploy capital This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 15
16. Evaluating Plant Improvements This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 16
Net Present Value Analysis vs. Simple Payback The difference between the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows. Discount Rate: % Life of Project: years Initial Cost: Cash Flow: per year (Assumption of equal cash flow for years 2-10)
7
15
$1,200,000
$508,320
Net Present Value: $2,370,735.32
PV of Expected Cash Flows: $3,570,735.32
Calculate
17. Maximizing Revenue
•
Plant optimization
•
Plant technology
•
Corn oil production
•
Corn oil to a higher value motor fuel
This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 17
Current focus of WB Services
Two bolt on technologies for generating higher revenue co-products from corn oil: biodiesel and renewable diesel.
18. Contact Us
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info@wbservicesllc.com www.wbservicesllc.com This document is proprietary and confidential. No part of this document may be disclosed in any manner to a third party without the prior written consent of WB Services, LLC. 18
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