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Placed 3rdfor CFA | InvestYoungStock Pitch Competition 
November 4, 2014 
Jonathan J. Chang, Queen’s Commerce 2017TSE: GTE
Table of Contents 
Company Overview 
Internal/External Analysis 
Investment Thesis 
Valuation 
Key Catalysts 
Associate Risks 
Price Target 
Appendix/Bibliography 
2 
3 
4 
6 
9 
13 
14 
16 
17
Jun 3, 2014 
Jun 26, 2014 
Company Overview 
3 
Company Overview 
Internal/External 
Investment Thesis 
Valuation 
Catalysts 
Associate Risks 
Price Target 
Business Overview and Strategy 
Recent News 
Management 
Relevant M&A Transactions of Subordinates (2009-14) 
Business Strategy: 
•Establishing bases of assets by: 
•Closed sale of its Argentina Business for ~$69 million USD 
•Sold to MadalenaEnergy 
•Increased focus on Colombia and Peru for second half of 2014 
Past Experiences 
•VP of EnCana Corporation 
•New Ventures Manager for Alberta Energy Company 
DANA COFFIELD 
CEO 
Past Experiences 
•Financial management of Canadian and American oil and gas E&P companies 
JAMES ROZON 
CFO 
Past Experiences 
•President and CEO of First Calgary PetroleumsLtd 
SHANE P. O’LEARY 
COO 
•2014 drilling campaign: initial well test results are promising for the Bretañaand Moquetaoil fields in Peru and Colombia 
Acquired 
May 29, 2014 
Acquired 
Aug 19,2013 
Acquired 
Jan 17, 2011 
Acquired 
Sep 20,2010 
Acquired 
Aug 30, 2010 
Acquired 
Apr 9,2009 
Selective acquisitions; reserve &production growth through drilling 
Duplicating business model in other areas 
Disposal of non-core assets through farm- outs or outright disposition of assets 
Independent international company 
Oil and Natural Gas 
Acquisition, exploration, development, production 
+ 
+
Internal Analysis 
4 
Company Overview 
Internal/External 
Investment Thesis 
Valuation 
Catalysts 
Associate Risks 
Price Target 
Areas of Operations: Colombia, Peru, and Brazil 
Independent O&G Segmentation by Market Cap 
Absolute Return Relative to E&P S&P Index (XOP) 
Calgary Headquarters 
7% 
1% 
59% 
22% 
2% 
9% 
Canadian-Based Small to Large Market Cap O&G Companies 
Baytex 
Bellatrix 
Canadian NaturalResources 
Crescent Point 
Gran Tierra 
Talisman 
-35.0% 
-25.0% 
-15.0% 
-5.0% 
5.0% 
15.0% 
25.0% 
1 
3 
5 
7 
9 
11 
13 
15 
17 
19 
21 
23 
25 
27 
29 
31 
33 
35 
37 
39 
41 
XOP 
GTE 
Operations carried out in South America in Colombia, Peru and Brazil, and headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada
88 
89 
90 
91 
92 
93 
94 
Q1 
Q2 
Q3 
Q4 
Q1 
Q2 
Q3 
Q4 
2014 
2015 
External Analysis: Oil Pricing 
5 
Oil Outlook 
OPEC Overview 
Crude and Brent Oil Spread (Active Contract COA) 
Total World Demand 
•Contrasting the fall in WTI crude oil prices this year, oil equities have rallied and hover above their historical average 
•Crude has been performing better relatively to Brent 
OPEC pumped avg1.7 MM/day morethan its 24.845 MM 2008-11 Daily Quota 
Basket Price: $74.05 Nov 19, 2014 
0 
2 
4 
6 
8 
10 
12 
14 
16 
80 
85 
90 
95 
100 
105 
110 
115 
Jan 3 
Mar 3 
May 3 
Jul 3 
Sep 3 
Crude 
Brent 
Spread 
1,200B, 81% 
277B, 19% 
OPEC’s Share of World Oil 
OPEC 
Non-OPEC 
Company Overview 
Internal/External 
Investment Thesis 
Valuation 
Catalysts 
Associate Risks 
Price Target 
Surge in U.S. and Saudi Arabia crude oil production will displace imported light blends and reduce U.S. reliance on imports 
Imports to fall below 6M barrels in 2015 
Basket Price: $74.05 Nov 19, 2014
External Analysis: Bullish Outlook 
6 
Sanctions on Russia –Boost Oil Prices 
Shortfall in Forecasts 
Production Rates using Different Technologies 
Supply Prospects for 2025 (mtpa) by BG Group 
Forecasts for additions in liquefied natural gas by 2025 fell by 35% 
0 
50 
100 
150 
200 
250 
300 
0 
50 
100 
150 
200 
250 
300 
Flow rates, m^3/day 
Time since the beginning of the work, days 
Horizontal wells with multistage hydraulic fracturing 
Vertical wells with hydraulic fracturing 
Multiple of 3.5 x 
0 
100 
200 
300 
400 
500 
600 
700 
2013 
2025 
Onstream 
Under Construction 
Future Supply Prospects 
-35% Current outlook for 2025 Supply 
Company Overview 
Internal/External 
Investment Thesis 
Valuation 
Catalysts 
Associate Risks 
Price Target 
Oil companies in Russia are being barred access to latest US and European exploration and production technology as a consequence of political sanctions 
2013: Russia contributed 12.4% to global supply 
Technology differences: Horizontal vs. Vertical wells 
Will reduce Russia oil exports and raise prices 
Many planned liquefaction plants never open because of complexity and expenses 
Half of existing planned capacity additions are being planned by companies with no prior experience 
Reduced supply will increase energy prices
Investment Thesis 
7 
Strong fundamental metrics with the lowest netbacks in peer group and competitive advantage through R&D 
•Upcoming pipeline repairs and updated capex guidelines 
•The Moqueta oil field in Colombia growth and Bretaňaoil discovery 
Relative Valuation 
•GTE undervalued on every metric; trading at 8.7 x 2015E P/E —below the industry average of 18.1 x 
•GTE’s stature as a leader in Latin America and growth warrant a higher valuation 
Argument I: Highest Netbacks and Upside Positioning 
Argument II: Production and Reserve Growth 
Argument III: Valuation 
Intrinsic Valuation 
•Both discounted cash flow and net asset value suggest target prices conservative to analyst estimates 
Company Overview 
Internal/External 
Investment Thesis 
Valuation 
Catalysts 
Associate Risks 
Price Target 
Current financials make GTE attractive M&A takeover candidate and company is well-positioned for expansion into neighbouring countries such as Mexico 
Public Company Comparables 
O&G Specific Multiples 
Precedent Transactions 
Net Asset Value 
Discounted Cash Flow 
Daily Production 
EBITDAX 
Base 
Fully Risked 
•Increase in cash inflow 
•Medium-term production growth 
•Long-term growth beyond 2020 
•Cash flow support the growth initiatives, mitigating need to raise equity in the future 
71 
62 
Gran Tierra 
Peer Group 
Netbacks ($/bbl) 
$0 
Debt
Investment Thesis 
8 
Argument I: Highest Netbacks and Upside Positioning 
Potential M&A Candidate 
Future Potential Upside Opportunities 
Highest Netbacks within Peer Group 
Research and Development Costs 
GTE future netbacks: ~$75-79 (2014-18) 
Suggested high premium potential 
•Management hints at possibility to do business in Mexico 
•GTE positioned well to participate in Mexico’s planned licensing rounds 
•Spending $37 million to evaluate two unconventional oil-saturated sands in the RecôncavoBasin 
•Oil demand increase: 
9.9% (Sept 2013-14) 
•Updated Report of Current Assets: 
Left Graph: 2010-13 Average Costs ($/boe) 
Higher price realizations and transportation cost reductions 
Future Upside Opportunities 
Company Overview 
Internal/External 
Investment Thesis 
Valuation 
Catalysts 
Associate Risks 
Price Target 
$14 
$20 
$0 
$5 
$10 
$15 
$20 
$25 
R&D Costs 
Peer R&D 
10 million net acres of potential land without reserves 
Attractive takeover candidate for firms looking for a foothold in region 
Major E&P player in Latin America 
Currently running on no debt 
Brazil 
Mexico 
Proven: 77% reserve increase 
Proven + Probable: ~48% reserve increase 
$64 
$23 
$36 
$22 
$46 
$71 
Clayton Williams 
Peyto 
Breitburn 
Valient 
Bankers 
Gran Tierra
Investment Thesis 
9 
Argument II: Production and Reserve Growth 
Historical Reserves (mboe) 
Historical Production (bod/d) 
Attractive Opportunities for Reserve Growth 
Expanding Reserves of Current Mines 
2P Expected 2014E: 
122mm boe 
0 
50 
100 
150 
200 
2008 
2009 
2010 
2011 
2012 
2013 
2P Reserves (mboe) 
Proven Reserves 
Probable Reserves 
Possible Reserves 
10,000 
12,500 
15,000 
17,500 
20,000 
22,500 
25,000 
2009 
2010 
2011 
2012 
2013 
Production (boe / d) 
2014 Capex and Updated Guidelines 
Pipeline Repairs 
•Pipeline in Colombia was recently damaged due to landslide 
•Had to transport its oil by truck 
•Cash inflow of $40 per boewhen pipeline is repaired 
•CAPEX program of $482 million 
•Poised for additional production growth 
Company Overview 
Internal/External 
Investment Thesis 
Valuation 
Catalysts 
Associate Risks 
Price Target 
8.0 x 
4.0 x 
Gran Tierra 
Closest Light Oil Peer: Petrominerales 
Resource Potential (Reserve / Prod) 
30,000 boe/d gross working interest 
Drilling in Bretana, Exploration success in the Putumayo Basin 
Located: 
50% in Colombia
Valuation 
10 
Argument III: Valuation 
EV / EBITDAX Multiple (5.0 x Exit) EV/Daily Production Multiple ($100 Exit) 
Enterprise Value: $2,171 
Less: Total Debt 0 
Less: Preferred Securities 0 
Less: Noncontrolling Interest 0 
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 347 
Implied Equity Value: $2,518 
Shares Oustanding: 275 
Impl ied Price Per Share: $ 9.16 
Enterprise Value: $1,552 
Less: Total Debt 0 
Less: Preferred Securities 0 
Less: Noncontrolling Interest 0 
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 347 
Implied Equity Value: $1,899 
Shares Oustanding: 275 
Impl ied Price Per Share: $ 6.91 
Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target 
Valuation Statistic s Capi tal ization Enterprise Value / Enterprise Value / 
Equi ty Enterprise P / E Mul tiple P / BV Mul tiple 
EV/Prdn 
(bod/d) EV/DACF EV/2P 
Company Name Value Value LTM FY1 LTM FY1 LTM FY1 Total Tangible 2013E 2013E 2013E 
CLAYTON WILLIAMS ENERGY $ 889 $ 1,486 3.1 x 3.2 x 5.1 x 4.8 x 16.3 x 19.6 x 2.9 x 2.2 x NM 5.1 x 25.1 x 
APACHE CORPORATION 28,995 39,505 2.6 x 2.8 x 3.9 x 3.9 x 24.5 x 12.3 x 1.2 x 0.9 x 132.9 x 7.3 x 35.9 x 
CARRIZO OIL & GAS 2,223 3,236 5.2 x 4.6 x 11.9 x 6.0 x NM 17.7 x 3.7 x 2.6 x 58.4 x 4.2 x 16.8 x 
LAREDO PETROLEUM 2,720 3,821 5.6 x 5.0 x 9.1 x 7.2 x 41.6 x 22.1 x 3.5 x 2.2 x 136.6 x 2.2 x 21.7 x 
PEYTO EXP & DEV CORP 4,723 5,558 11.0 x 6.8 x 13.3 x 8.7 x 25.7 x 18.8 x 4.4 x 3.6 x 95.4 x 10.3 x 12.1 x 
BREITBURN ENERGY 2,274 4,268 5.1 x 5.5 x 25.6 x 9.2 x NM NM 1.5 x 1.1 x 133.6 x 7.5 x 20.2 x 
Median $ 2,497 $ 4,044 5.1 x 4.8 x 10.5 x 6.6 x 25.1 x 18.8 x 3.2 x 2.2 x 132.9 x 6.2 x 21.0 x 
Mean $ 6,971 $ 9,646 5.4 x 4.6 x 11.5 x 6.6 x 27.0 x 18.1 x 2.9 x 2.1 x 111.4 x 6.1 x 22.0 x 
Gran Tierra Energy Inc $ 1,395 $ 1,047 1.6 x 1.5 x 2.2 x 2.1 x 18.4 x 8.7 x 1.5 x 1.0 x 46.7 x 2.9 x 9.4 x 
Relative Premium (Discount) to Median (69%) (69%) (79%) (68%) (27%) (54%) (52%) (52%) (65%) (53%) (55%) 
Revenue EBITDA
Valuation 
11 
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis 
($ in millions, except per share data) 
Gran Tierra Energy Inc - Cash Flow Projec tions Gran Tierra FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY 2014E FY 2015E FY 2016E FY 2017E FY 2018E 
Revenue: $596 $583 $720 $ 760 $ 847 $ 890 $ 934 $ 981 
EBITDAX: $464 $377 $526 $ 526 $ 580 $ 623 $ 654 $ 687 
Operating Income: $233 $195 $258 $ 321 $ 373 $ 394 $ 414 $ 435 
Less: Taxes ($107) ($98) ($136) ($136) ($168) ($163) ($171) ($179) 
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization $231 $182 $267 $183 $185 $210 $210 $210 
Plus: Stock-Based Compensation $13 $12 $9 $0 $0 $13 $13 $13 
Plus: Asset Retirement Accretion $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 
Plus: Dry Hole Expense $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 
Plus: Deferred Income Tax -29 26 -29 ($70) $34 ($14) ($14) ($14) 
Plus: Non-Cash Derivative Losses $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 
Plus: Other Non-Cash Items $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 
Less: Increase in Working Capital: $38 ($167) $168 ($88) $0 $0 $0 $0 
Less: Capital Expenditures ($333) ($276) ($367) ($355) ($300) ($300) ($300) ($300) 
Unlevered Free Cash Flow $46 $ (126) $170 $ (145) $ 124 $ 141 $ 152 $ 164 
Present Value of Free Cash Flow $ 161 $ (122) $ 94 $ 95 $ 92 $ 89 
Normal Discount Period: 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 
Mid-Year Discount: 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 
Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: (373.0%) (235.6%) (184.8%) (185.7%) 13.5% 8.2% 8.0% 
Sensitivities 
Gran Tierra Energy - Net Present Value Sensi tivi ty - Terminal EBITDAX Mul tiples 
Discount Rate 
$ 9.16 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 
2.0 x $ 6.08 $ 5.86 $ 5.65 $ 5.46 $ 5.27 $ 5.10 $ 4.93 
3.0 x $ 7.66 $ 7.35 $ 7.06 $ 6.79 $ 6.54 $ 6.29 $ 6.07 
4.0 x $ 9.23 $ 8.84 $ 8.47 $ 8.13 $ 7.80 $ 7.49 $ 7.21 
5.0 x $ 10.80 $ 10.33 $ 9.88 $ 9.46 $ 9.07 $ 8.69 $ 8.34 
6.0 x $ 12.38 $ 11.82 $ 11.29 $ 10.80 $ 10.33 $ 9.89 $ 9.48 
7.0 x $ 13.95 $ 13.30 $ 12.70 $ 12.13 $ 11.60 $ 11.09 $ 10.62 
8.0 x $ 15.52 $ 14.79 $ 14.11 $ 13.47 $ 12.86 $ 12.29 $ 11.76 
Terminal EBITDAX 
Multiple 
Gran Tierra Energy - Net Present Value Sensi tivi ty - Dai ly Produc tion Mul tiple 
Discount Rate 
$ 6.91 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 
$130.00 $ 9.57 $ 9.16 $ 8.77 $ 8.41 $ 8.07 $ 7.75 $ 7.45 
$120.00 $ 9.06 $ 8.68 $ 8.32 $ 7.98 $ 7.66 $ 7.36 $ 7.08 
$110.00 $ 8.55 $ 8.19 $ 7.86 $ 7.55 $ 7.25 $ 6.97 $ 6.71 
$100.00 $ 8.04 $ 7.71 $ 7.40 $ 7.11 $ 6.84 $ 6.59 $ 6.34 
$90.00 $ 7.53 $ 7.23 $ 6.95 $ 6.68 $ 6.43 $ 6.20 $ 5.98 
$80.00 $ 7.02 $ 6.74 $ 6.49 $ 6.25 $ 6.02 $ 5.81 $ 5.61 
$70.00 $ 6.51 $ 6.26 $ 6.03 $ 5.82 $ 5.61 $ 5.42 $ 5.24 
Daily Production 
Multiples ($ Per 
McF) 
Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target
Valuation 
12 
NAVPS Explanation 
NAVPS Analysis 
Net Asset Value (2014 FY1) Post-Tax PV 
Risked 
mmBOE $mm 
$C / 
Share 
Colombia 2P 50.9 $1,067.3 $4.10 
Peru 2P 61.5 $277.4 $1.07 
Brazil 2P 5.3 $106.4 $0.41 
Total 2P Reserves 117.7 $1,451.1 $5.58 
Net Cash/Debt $251.5 $0.97 
Discounted proceeds from in-the-money options $5.2 0.02 
Other Long-Term Investments $20.5 0.08 
Base NAV 117.6 $1,728.3 6.64 
Colombia Resource 28.4 $425.0 $1.57 
Peru Resource 173 $840.8 $3.11 
Brazil Resource 15.4 $108.1 $0.40 
Total Upside Resources 216.8 $1,373.9 $5.07 
Discounted proceeds from exercise-below-target options $51.8 $0.19 
Discounted G&A ($228.5) ($0.84) 
Ful ly Risked NAV 334.4 $2,925.6 10.8 
Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target 
Since international E&P’s may not have as many 
standards as Canada, lower multiple from 
international E&P’s requiring a risk premium for 
their lack of regulation in comparison to 
Canadian companies. 
0.8 x 
0.5 x 
2.2 x 
0.9 x 
1.1 x 
0.4 x 
GTE Base GTE Fully Risked Avg CDN Base Avg CDN Fully 
Risked 
Avg International 
Base 
Avg International 
Fully Risked 
Avg
$13.77 
13.04 
19.06 
13.27 
8.29 
12.49 
20.31 
15.20 
6.64 
7.80 
6.95 
7.80 
6.95 
10.28 
9.17 
9.66 
$14.48 
13.47 
20.69 
13.40 
8.83 
12.88 
22.64 
15.74 
10.80 
11.29 
7.25 
11.29 
7.25 
12.02 
9.30 
10.07 
LTM EV / Revenue 
FY1 EV / Revenue 
LTM EV / EBITDA 
FY1 EV / EBITDA 
LTM P / E 
FY1 P / E 
P / BV 
P / Tangible BV 
NAVPS 
DCF Multiples Method (9-13%, 3.0-7.0 x) 
DCF Gordon Growth (9-13%, 1-5% Growth) 
EV / EBIT 
EV / EBITDA 
EV/Prdn… 
EV/DACF 
EV/2P 
Public Company Comparables 
Book Value Multiples and NAV 
DCF Valuation 
Precedent Transaction Analysis 
Oil & Gas SpecificMultiples 
Valuation 
13 
Summary 
•Relative valuation suggests much higher value and Gran Tierra is trading at a significant discount to the industry 
•Our NAVPS and DCF have more moderate estimates on future prices which are in line with the median of analyst targets 
•We have taken a conservativeapproach to our price target 
•Gran Tierra’s significant discount makes it a promising opportunity for investors interested in small-capcompanies 
Price Target: $8.00 
Median Analyst Target: $9.78 
Indicative Valuation Analysis: Football Field Graph 
Company Overview 
Internal/External 
Investment Thesis 
Valuation 
Catalysts 
Associate Risks 
Price Target
Catalysts 
14 
Global Environment Permits 
Successful Joint Drilling Campaign Leading to Increased Reserves 
•Expected to receive its global development permit for the Moquetafield imminently 
•GTE can develop the field with its optimal drilling locations; especially if the Coruntalocation is successful 
•Colombiaannounced plans to expedite environmental permit approvals 
•Will speed up infrastructure, mining and oil projects (to reduce the time to 5 months) 
Drilling campaign in Peru in Block 107 would improve the additional oil potential in the region and add up to $1.4/per share in value for GTE, or about 20-30% of current price 
Colombia: Moqueta-13development well was successfully drilled, tested ~1,500 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") 
November 27 OPEC Meeting 
Recent decreases in oil prices from Saudi Arabia raising oil production to protect market share against the US 
Company Overview 
Internal/External 
Investment Thesis 
Valuation 
Catalysts 
Associate Risks 
Price Target 
•Peruviangovernment is speeding up the permitting process anticipating the field’s development curve 
Block 107 is estimated to have a prospective resource potential of ~50mn boe(adjusted by probability of success) 
Costayaco-21development went well. Production from both is expected to start in the 3Q of 2014 
Furthermore, It would not make sense for Saudi Arabia to wage a price war and injure the US, an ally in the war against Islamic State 
Nov 20 price: $75.58 
$153.40 
$100.00 
$80.00 
$83.60 
Iran 
Russia 
US 
SaudiArabia 
Pricing Needed to Breakeven National Budget 
According to IMF Estimates
Associate Risks 
15 
Guerilla Activity in Colombia 
Lack of Diversification 
Storage/Transportation and Sales Dependence 
Core Production Base 
2012 and 2013: 
Highly susceptible to regional factors such as geographic remoteness or weather conditions 
•The Company relies on local infrastructure and the availability of transportation for storage and shipment of its product 
87 
10 
3 
Colombia 
Argentina 
Brazil 
Peru 
All Other 
CostayacoField (Colombia) 
MoquetaField (Colombia) 
•Tested from the T-Sandstone formation at a rate 1,353 bbl/d of 27°API oil with 0.3% water cut 
•Producing at a plateau rate of17,900 bbl/d gross 
Putumayo-31 Block (Colombia) 
•GTE was determined to be the successful bidder of the Putumayo-31 Block in the 2014 Bid Round in Colombia subject to ANH approval 
2013 Revenue Segmentation: 
Company Overview 
Internal/External 
Investment Thesis 
Valuation 
Catalysts 
Associate Risks 
Price Target 
International market prices, lack of competition and reliance on a limited customers for sales 
Main Buyer in Brazil 
Main Buyer in Colombia 
Main Colombia Delivery Contractor 
Oil prices in Colombia are related to : 
Guerrilla activity in Colombia increased significantlywhich creates a greater risk for operations and employees 
Areas known for breeding place of guerilla activity 
Putumayo region 
Catatumboregion
Associate Risks 
16 
Susceptibility to Commodity Prices and Markets 
GTE vs. COA (Crude Oil, Brent Active Contract) 
GTE vs. CLA (Crude Oil, WTI Contract) 
GTE vs. XOP (S&P E&P Index) 
•GTE has a fair correlation to both crude and brentoil prices 
•Crude represented by CLA Index 
•Brent represented by COA Index 
•Fair Correlation with S&P E&P Index 
y = 0.3825x + 0.1367R² = 0.2539 
-8 
-6 
-4 
-2 
0 
2 
4 
6 
8 
-10 
-5 
0 
5 
10 
y = 0.1495x -0.0823R² = 0.1048 
-6 
-4 
-2 
0 
2 
4 
6 
-10 
-5 
0 
5 
10 
y = 0.1383x -0.239R² = 0.0962 
-6 
-5 
-4 
-3 
-2 
-1 
0 
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
-10 
-5 
0 
5 
10 
Company Overview 
Internal/External 
Investment Thesis 
Valuation 
Catalysts 
Associate Risks 
Price Target 
*2013 Annual Report: “We did not engage in any formal hedging activity with regard to foreign currency risk” 
•As a small-cap company, a risk premium must be attributed and considered 
•No found information on any hedging position to mitigate risk
Price Target 
17 
Price-Volume Chart 
Analyst Price Target Comparison 
Distribution of Analyst Ratings 
Target and Return Summary 
4 
5 
6 
7 
8 
9 
10 
11 
12 
0% 
20% 
40% 
60% 
80% 
100% 
Oct-14 
Aug-14 
Jun-14 
Apr-14 
Feb-14 
Dec-13 
Buy 
Hold 
Price 
Target Price 
Price November 4:4.81 
Capital Return:66.3% 
Dividend Return:0% 
Total Implied Return:66.3% 
Target Price$8.00 
Soft Stop-Loss:$4.50 
Hard Stop-Loss:$4.00 
0 
2 
4 
6 
8 
10 
12 
14 
Our Target Price 
Morningstar 
Desjardins Capital Markets 
Mackie Research 
TD Securities 
Cormarck Securities 
Nov 5 Price: $4.81 
M 
2M 
4M 
6M 
8M 
10M 
12M 
14M 
$4.0 
$5.0 
$6.0 
$7.0 
$8.0 
$9.0 
$10.0 
$11.0 
3-Jan 
28-Feb 
25-Apr 
20-Jun 
15-Aug 
10-Oct 
Target Price: $8.00 
Stop Loss: $4.50 
Company Overview 
Internal/External 
Investment Thesis 
Valuation 
Catalysts 
Associate Risks 
Price Target
Bibliography 
18 
Equity Research Reports:Analyst: 
Wright GTE 
ValueEngine 
TD SecuritiesJamie Somerville 
MRA ResearchMichael Anderegg 
HSBCFrancisoSchumacher, Kevin Gonzalez 
MorningstarDavid McColl 
CanaccordGenuityChristopher Brown 
Cormack SecuritiesGarett Ursa, Calvin Bohdan 
Desjardins CapitalJustin Anderson 
Mackie ResearchBill Newman, Valentino Pintea 
Reports: 
•Will Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Perform Long Term? 
•ValuEngineRating and Forecast Report for GTE 
•Colombia Equity Insights:-Tax reform plans reinforce our underweight on Colombian equities 
•(GTE-T) On the Road with GTE 
•Red Book Sept. 2014(report) 
•Permit & pipe problems present opportunity; maintain BUY recommendation and C$9.50 target 
•South America Oil E & P Play –Potential Event Catalysts Upcoming 
•Rising Costs, Project Delays Reduced Appetite for EU Oil Shares (Bloomberg E&P Industry Primer) 
•BG’s Egypt Diversions, Higher Costs Overshadow Brazil Growth 
•Q2/14 Results In Line; Colombian Exploration Program Provides Steady Stream Of Catalysts 
•GTE's quiet summer coming to a close; catalysts set for 4Q14 
•THOMSON REUTERS STREETEVENTS EDITED TRANSCRIPT GTE -Q2 2014 Gran Tierra Energy IncEarnings Call 
•Exploration Program Coming Up In H2/14 
•OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2013 
•Company’s Annual Reports 
Authors: 
Marissa Goodbody 
Seth Barnet 
Forbes 
HasmirAbdula 
Jim Brewer 
Articles: 
•Weak On High Volume: Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) 
•Gran Tierra Energy Sees Large Increase in Short Interest (GTE) 
•Relative Strength Alert For Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) 
•Gran Tierra Energy Given Consensus Rating of “Buy” by Analysts (NYSE:GTE) 
•Short Interest in Gran Tierra Energy Decreases By 18.8% (GTE) 
(Sources cited and additional reading material) 
Analytic Services: 
Bloomberg 
Thomson One 
Capital IQ 
Back to Table of Contents
Appendix Table of Contents 
19 
Click a box below to reach the slide 
WACC/Cap Table 
Precedent Comps 
Precedent M&A List 
Colombia Properties 
Argentina Properties 
Brazil Properties 
Comps Calculations 
Broker Analysis 
Rolling Ratios 
Institutional Ownership 
Implied Valuation
Appendix 
20 
Multiples Implied Valuation 
Low High Metric Low High 
Public Company Comparables: 
LTM EV / Revenue 5.1 x 5.4 x $ 654 $ 13.77 $ 14.48 
FY1 EV / Revenue 4.6 x 4.8 x $ 700 13.04 13.47 
LTM EV / EBITDA 10.5 x 11.5 x $ 466 19.06 20.69 
FY1 EV / EBITDA 6.6 x 6.6 x $ 503 13.27 13.40 
LTM P / E 25.1 x 27.0 x $ 77 8.29 8.83 
FY1 P / E 18.1 x 18.8 x $ 170 12.49 12.88 
NAVPS and Book Value Multiples 
P / BV 2.9 x 3.2 x $ 1,826 20.31 22.64 
P / Tangible BV 2.1 x 2.2 x $ 1,826 15.20 15.74 
NAVPS 6.64 10.80 
DCF Valuation 
DCF Multiples Method (9-13%, 3.0-7.0 x) 7.80 11.29 
DCF Gordon Growth (9-13%, 1-5% Growth) 6.95 7.25 
Precedent Transaction Analysis 
EV / EBIT 24.1 x 30.1 x $68 7.80 11.29 
EV / EBITDA 11.35 13.33 $ 466 6.95 7.25 
Balance Sheet Adj. 347.00 
Shares Outstanding 275.00 
Implied Valuation
Appendix 
21 
WACC Analysis and Capitalization Table 
Capitalization Table 
Consolidated Market Cap 1,321 
- Cash and Short Term 347 
+ Short Term Debt - 
+ Long Term Debt - 
+ Preferred Stock - 
+ Minority Interest - 
= Enterprise Value 974 
Go Back to 
Appendix Overview 
WACC Analysis 
($ in millions, except per share data) 
Discount Rate Calculation - Assumptions 
Risk-Free Rate: 2.4% 
Equity Risk Premium: 7.0% 
Interest Rate on Debt: 0.0% 
Comparable Companies - Unlevered Beta Calculation 
Levered Equi ty Unlevered 
Name Beta Debt Value Tax Rate Beta 
CLAYTON WILLIAMS ENERGY, INC. 2.56 $ 632 $ 889 36.0% 1.76 
APACHE CORPORATION 1.43 9,675 28,995 45.7% 1.21 
CARRIZO OIL & GAS, INC. 2.00 1,022 2,223 35.0% 1.54 
LAREDO PETROLEUM, INC 1.95 1,501 2,720 39.0% 1.46 
PEYTO EXP/DEV CORP 0.40 825 4,723 35.0% 0.36 
BREITBURN ENERGY PARTNERS L.P. 0.3 1812 2,274 35.0% 0.20 
Median 1.69 1.33 
Gran Tierra Energy Inc 1.17 
Gran Tierra - Levered Beta & WACC Calculation 
Unlevered Equi ty Levered 
Beta Debt Value Tax Rate Beta 
Gran Tierra Energy Inc 1.33 $ - $ 1,395 35% $ 1.33 
Cost of Equity Based on Comparables: 11.8% 
Cost of Equity Based on Historical Beta: 10.6% 
WACC 11.8% 
WACC = Cost of Equity * % Equity + Cost of Debt * % Debt * 
(1 - Tax Rate) + Cost of Preferred Stock * % Preferred Stock
Appendix 
22 
Precedent Transaction Analysis: Deal Breakdown and Multiples 
Deal Attribute 
Target Multiples # Deals Min - Max Median Min Max Average 
Net Income 5 7.33 - 88.03 58.7 x 7.3 x 88.0 x 47.7 x 
Free Cashflow 4 8.98 - 77.72 53.3 x 9.0 x 77.7 x 43.4 x 
Income B/F XO 5 7.33 - 79.05 52.4 x 7.3 x 79.1 x 43.2 x 
Net Income + Deprec 5 2.67 - 88.03 32.7 x 2.7 x 88.0 x 45.4 x 
EBIT 5 3.95 - 56.33 24.1 x 4.0 x 56.3 x 30.1 x 
EBITDA 5 2.15 - 24.51 11.4 x 2.2 x 24.5 x 13.3 x 
Cashflow from Ops. 5 2.46 - 33.56 8.5 x 2.5 x 33.6 x 18.0 x 
Revenue 6 1.23 - 193.53 8.0 x 1.2 x 193.5 x 97.4 x 
Book Value 6 .94 - 68.45 6.0 x 0.9 x 68.5 x 34.7 x 
Stockholder Eqty 6 .94 - 68.45 6.0 x 0.9 x 68.5 x 34.7 x 
Market Cap 3 1.06 - 3.14 2.8 x 1.1 x 3.1 x 2.1 x 
Total Assets 6 .58 - 21.60 1.8 x 0.6 x 21.6 x 11.1 x 
Enterprise Value 3 1.25 - 2.02 1.3 x 1.3 x 2.0 x 1.6 x 
Premiums Paid # Deals Volume Percent 
50.01-75% 1 1.34B 8% 8% 
25.01-50% 2 2.32B 13% 
Go Back to 
Appendix Overview
Appendix 
23 
Precedent Transaction Analysis: Listed Deal Transactions 
Deal 
Type 
Announce 
Date Target Name Acquirer Name Seller Name 
Announced Total 
Value (mil.) 
Payment 
Type TV/EBITDA Deal Status 
M&A 11/13/2013 Petrobras Energia Peru SA China National Petroleum Corp Petroleo Brasileiro SA 2600 Cash Completed 
M&A 4/30/2014 Heritage Oil PLC Al Mirqab Capital SPC 1883.74 Cash 11.35 Completed 
M&A 8/19/2013 BC-10 block/Brazil Sinochem International Corp Petroleo Brasileiro SA 1540 Cash Terminated 
INV 6/14/2013 Petrobras Oil & Gas BV 
Grupo BTG Pactual,Helios Investment Partners LLP (Fund: Helios 
Investors II LP) Petroleo Brasileiro SA 1525 Cash Completed 
M&A 9/29/2013 Petrominerales Ltd Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp 1335.01 Cash 2.67 Completed 
M&A 11/22/2013 Northern Blizzard Resources Inc Potential Buyer 
Riverstone Holdings LLC,NGP 
Energy Capital Management LLC 1000 Cash Withdrawn 
M&A 2/12/2014 Argentinian business YPF SA Apache Corp 852 Cash Completed 
M&A 5/7/2013 Blocks BM-C-39 & BM-C-40 Petroliam Nasional Bhd Oleo e Gas Participacoes SA 850 Cash Terminated 
INV 3/24/2014 Transportadora de Gas del Peru SA Canada Pension Plan Investment Board 
Tecpetrol SA,Tecpetrol 
International SA,Tecpetrol 
Internacional SLU 607 Cash 24.51 Completed 
M&A 8/16/2013 Trinidad and Tobago Holdings LLC National Gas Co of Trinidad & Tobago Ltd ConocoPhillips 600 Cash Completed 
INV 12/9/2013 Oleoducto Central SA 
AFP Proteccion SA,Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores,Advent 
International Corp (Fund: Advent International GPE VII LP) Talisman Energy Inc 595 Cash Completed 
M&A 10/14/2013 BC-10 block/Brazil Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd Petroleo Brasileiro SA 529 Cash Completed 
INV 9/18/2014 Sierra Oil & Gas S de RL de CV 
Infraestructura Institucional Srl,Riverstone Holdings LLC (Fund: 
Riverstone Global Energy & Power Fund V LP)… 525 Cash Completed 
M&A 11/19/2012 C&C Energia Ltd Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp 440.85 
Cash and 
Stock 2.15 Completed 
M&A 11/26/2013 OFD Holding Inc Yara International ASA Omimex Resources Inc 377 Cash Completed 
INV 10/31/2013 OAS Oleo e Gas FI-FGTS 357.85 Cash Completed 
INV 8/20/2013 
Primax Comercial Del Ecuador 
SA,Manu Peru Holding SA,Atimasa SA Romero Trading SA Empresa Nacional del Petroleo 308.5 Cash Completed 
M&A 3/25/2013 Occidental Quimica do Brasil Ltda Unipar Carbocloro SA Occidental Petroleum Corp 300.4 Cash Completed 
M&A 12/16/2013 Harvest Vinccler Dutch Holding BV Pluspetrol Resources Corp NV,Petroandina Resources Corp NV Harvest Natural Resources Inc 275 Undisclosed Completed 
M&A 11/26/2012 Block BS-4/Santos Basin Oleo e Gas Participacoes SA Petroleo Brasileiro SA 270 Cash Completed 
M&A 5/13/2014 Verano Energy Ltd Parex Resources Inc 260.94 
Cash and 
Stock Completed 
INV 11/20/2013 Transportadora de Gas del Peru SA Grana y Montero SAA Pluspetrol SA 237 Cash 18.2 Completed 
Go Back to 
Appendix Overview
Appendix 
24 
Properties in Colombia 
Go Back to Appendix Overview
Appendix 
25 
Properties in Argentina that were Sold 
Go Back to Appendix Overview
Appendix 
26 
Properties in Brazil 
Go Back to Appendix Overview
Appendix 
27 
Comparable Companies - Exploration Oil and Gas Companies, with Market Caps Above 800M 
($ in Millions Except Per Share and Per Unit Data) 
Operat ing Stat i s t i cs Capi tal i zat ion Projected Projected 
Equi ty Enterpri se Revenue EBITDA Reported Net Income Revenue EBITDA EBITDA Margin 
Company Name Value Value LTM F Y1 LTM F Y1 LTM F Y1 Growth Growth LTM F Y1 
CLAYTON WILLIAMS ENERGY $ 889 $ 1,486 $ 486 $ 466 $ 292 $ 307 $ 55 $ 42 83.8% 103.7% 60.2% 65.9% 
APACHE CORPORATION 28,995 39,505 15,347 14,255 10,239 10,052 15 2,431 21.1% (22.7%) 66.7% 70.5% 
CARRIZO OIL & GAS 2,223 3,236 625 710 273 544 (11) 122 144.5% (17.5%) 43.7% 76.6% 
LAREDO PETROLEUM 2,720 3,821 681 759 418 533 62 130 50.7% (1.8%) 61.5% 70.2% 
PEYTO EXP & DEV CORP 4,723 5,558 620 821 515 638 181 254 35.8% 38.6% 83.0% 77.7% 
BREITBURN ENERGY 2,274 4,268 838 780 167 463 (198) (54) 31.9% (16.2%) 19.9% 59.4% 
Median $ 2,497 $ 4,044 $ 653 $ 769 $ 355 $ 538 $ 35 $ 126 43.2% (9.0%) 60.8% 70.3% 
Mean $ 6,971 $ 3,382 $ 621 $ 722 $ 278 $ 481 $ (5) $ 62 32.9% (17.2%) 47.8% 67.0% 
Gran Tierra Energy Inc $ 1,395 $ 1,047 $ 654 $ 700 $ 466 $ 503 $ 77 $ 170 37.0% (5.5%) 71.4% 71.9% 
Go Back to 
Appendix Overview
Appendix 
28 
Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date 
HSBC LUIZ CARVALHO overweight 7.94 20-Nov-14 
JPMorgan FELIPE DOS SANTOS overweight 10.23 13-Nov-14 
RBC Capital Markets NATHAN PIPER outperform 11.00 10-Nov-14 
Canaccord Genuity Corp CHRISTOPHER BROWN buy 9.50 10-Nov-14 
Morningstar, Inc JASON STEVENS buy 10-Nov-14 
Cormark Securities Inc. GARETT URSU buy 9.00 7-Nov-14 
FirstEnergy Capital Corp DARREN B ENGELS outperform 9.00 7-Nov-14 
TD Securities JAMIE SOMERVILLE buy 10.00 7-Nov-14 
Mackie Research Capital Corp. BILL NEWMAN buy 8.75 7-Nov-14 
Credit Suisse DAVID PHUNG outperform 8.58 6-Nov-14 
Peters & Co Ltd DAN GRAGER sector outperform 7.50 6-Nov-14 
Scotia Capital GAVIN WYLIE sector outperform 11.00 6-Nov-14 
Paradigm Capital Inc IAN W MACQUEEN buy 9.25 6-Nov-14 
GMP DAVID BEDDIS buy 10.75 6-Nov-14 
Edgecrest Capital VICTOR VALLANCE buy 7.00 6-Nov-14 
Goldman Sachs SERGIO CONTI neutral/neutral 7.50 26-Oct-14 
ITG Investment Research IAN NIEBOER no rating system 8-Jul-14 
EVA Dimensions NEIL FONSECA buy 28-Apr-14 
Morningstar, Inc DAVID MCCOLL hold 10.00 8-Apr-14 
Jennings Capital JAMES HUMEN Under Review 31-Jan-14 
Tudor Pickering & Co MATTHEW PORTILLO hold 11.15 29-Jan-14 
0 
2 
4 
6 
8 
10 
12 
HSBC 
JPMorgan 
RBC Capital 
Markets 
Canaccord Genuity 
Corp 
Morningstar, Inc 
Cormark Securities 
Inc. 
FirstEnergy Capital 
Corp 
TD Securities 
Mackie Research 
Capital Corp. 
Credit Suisse 
Peters & Co Ltd 
Scotia Capital 
Paradigm Capital 
Inc 
GMP 
Edgecrest Capital 
Goldman Sachs 
ITG Investment 
Research 
EVA Dimensions 
Morningstar, Inc 
Jennings Capital 
Tudor Pickering & 
Co 
Brokers' Target Price 
Analyst/Broker Ratings and Target Prices 
Go Back to 
Appendix Overview
Appendix 
29 
4.00 
6.00 
8.00 
10.00 
12.00 
14.00 
16.00 
18.00 
Nov-12 
Jan-13 
Mar-13 
May-13 
Jul-13 
Sep-13 
Nov-13 
Jan-14 
Mar-14 
May-14 
Jul-14 
Sep-14 
Price Earnings Ratio (Rolling FY1, FY2, FY3) 
P/E FY1 
P/E FY2 
P/E FY3 
1.50 
2.00 
2.50 
3.00 
3.50 
4.00 
Nov-12 
Jan-13 
Mar-13 
May-13 
Jul-13 
Sep-13 
Nov-13 
Jan-14 
Mar-14 
May-14 
Jul-14 
Sep-14 
EV EBITDA Ratio (Rolling FY1, FY2, FY3) 
EV/EBITDA FY1 
EV/EBITDA FY2 
EV/EBITDA FY3 
Rolling Ratios P / E and EV / EBITDA 
Go Back to Appendix Overview
Appendix 
30 
Institutional Ownership Breakdown 
Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value 
% of 
Ownership Report Date Source Country 
FMR LLC 19,572,002 -3,980,589 100,600,090 7.09% 9/30/2014 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES 
MASSACHUSETTS FINANC 15,572,380 5,841,019 80,042,033 5.64% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES 
WASATCH ADVISORS INC 13,257,723 1,359,621 68,144,696 4.80% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES 
AMBER CAPITAL LP 9,035,358 -1,203,009 46,441,740 3.27% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES 
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 8,473,686 66,514 43,554,746 3.07% 9/30/2014 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES 
CANADA PENSION PLAN 8,408,300 -1,573,302 43,218,662 3.05% 9/30/2014 13F CANADA 
GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OT 5,373,162 625,962 27,618,053 1.95% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES 
INVESCO LTD 4,883,043 68,103 25,098,841 1.77% 9/30/2014 ULT-AGG CANADA 
BCIMC INVESTMENT MAN 4,801,338 0 24,678,877 1.74% 3/31/2014 CAN-PE CANADA 
FRANKLIN RESOURCES 4,491,102 440,401 23,084,264 1.63% 9/30/2014 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES 
INGALLS & SNYDER 4,489,453 127,000 23,075,788 1.63% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES 
IG INVESTMENT MANAGE 4,451,039 -312,930 22,878,340 1.61% 9/30/2014 13F CANADA 
CARMIGNAC GESTION 4,327,000 0 22,240,780 1.57% 9/30/2014 MF-AGG FRANCE 
THORNBURG INVESTMENT 4,072,673 0 20,933,539 1.48% 6/30/2014 MF-USA UNITED STATES 
SCHRODER INVESTMENT 3,711,312 -1,534,457 19,076,144 1.34% 9/30/2014 13F BRITAIN 
LIBRA ADVISORS LLC 3,505,880 2,544,200 18,020,223 1.27% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES 
NUMERIC INVESTORS LL 3,411,726 571,600 17,536,272 1.24% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES 
GRANDEUR PEAK GLOBAL 3,078,350 390,225 15,822,719 1.12% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES 
VANGUARD GROUP INC 3,034,285 233,557 15,596,225 1.10% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES 
TORONTO-DOMINION BAN 2,864,691 -52,072 14,724,512 1.04% 9/30/2014 ULT-AGG CANADA 
Go Back to 
Appendix Overview

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GTE IOT Stock Pitch - Jonathan Chang

  • 1. Placed 3rdfor CFA | InvestYoungStock Pitch Competition November 4, 2014 Jonathan J. Chang, Queen’s Commerce 2017TSE: GTE
  • 2. Table of Contents Company Overview Internal/External Analysis Investment Thesis Valuation Key Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target Appendix/Bibliography 2 3 4 6 9 13 14 16 17
  • 3. Jun 3, 2014 Jun 26, 2014 Company Overview 3 Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target Business Overview and Strategy Recent News Management Relevant M&A Transactions of Subordinates (2009-14) Business Strategy: •Establishing bases of assets by: •Closed sale of its Argentina Business for ~$69 million USD •Sold to MadalenaEnergy •Increased focus on Colombia and Peru for second half of 2014 Past Experiences •VP of EnCana Corporation •New Ventures Manager for Alberta Energy Company DANA COFFIELD CEO Past Experiences •Financial management of Canadian and American oil and gas E&P companies JAMES ROZON CFO Past Experiences •President and CEO of First Calgary PetroleumsLtd SHANE P. O’LEARY COO •2014 drilling campaign: initial well test results are promising for the Bretañaand Moquetaoil fields in Peru and Colombia Acquired May 29, 2014 Acquired Aug 19,2013 Acquired Jan 17, 2011 Acquired Sep 20,2010 Acquired Aug 30, 2010 Acquired Apr 9,2009 Selective acquisitions; reserve &production growth through drilling Duplicating business model in other areas Disposal of non-core assets through farm- outs or outright disposition of assets Independent international company Oil and Natural Gas Acquisition, exploration, development, production + +
  • 4. Internal Analysis 4 Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target Areas of Operations: Colombia, Peru, and Brazil Independent O&G Segmentation by Market Cap Absolute Return Relative to E&P S&P Index (XOP) Calgary Headquarters 7% 1% 59% 22% 2% 9% Canadian-Based Small to Large Market Cap O&G Companies Baytex Bellatrix Canadian NaturalResources Crescent Point Gran Tierra Talisman -35.0% -25.0% -15.0% -5.0% 5.0% 15.0% 25.0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 XOP GTE Operations carried out in South America in Colombia, Peru and Brazil, and headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada
  • 5. 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 External Analysis: Oil Pricing 5 Oil Outlook OPEC Overview Crude and Brent Oil Spread (Active Contract COA) Total World Demand •Contrasting the fall in WTI crude oil prices this year, oil equities have rallied and hover above their historical average •Crude has been performing better relatively to Brent OPEC pumped avg1.7 MM/day morethan its 24.845 MM 2008-11 Daily Quota Basket Price: $74.05 Nov 19, 2014 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 Jan 3 Mar 3 May 3 Jul 3 Sep 3 Crude Brent Spread 1,200B, 81% 277B, 19% OPEC’s Share of World Oil OPEC Non-OPEC Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target Surge in U.S. and Saudi Arabia crude oil production will displace imported light blends and reduce U.S. reliance on imports Imports to fall below 6M barrels in 2015 Basket Price: $74.05 Nov 19, 2014
  • 6. External Analysis: Bullish Outlook 6 Sanctions on Russia –Boost Oil Prices Shortfall in Forecasts Production Rates using Different Technologies Supply Prospects for 2025 (mtpa) by BG Group Forecasts for additions in liquefied natural gas by 2025 fell by 35% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Flow rates, m^3/day Time since the beginning of the work, days Horizontal wells with multistage hydraulic fracturing Vertical wells with hydraulic fracturing Multiple of 3.5 x 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2025 Onstream Under Construction Future Supply Prospects -35% Current outlook for 2025 Supply Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target Oil companies in Russia are being barred access to latest US and European exploration and production technology as a consequence of political sanctions 2013: Russia contributed 12.4% to global supply Technology differences: Horizontal vs. Vertical wells Will reduce Russia oil exports and raise prices Many planned liquefaction plants never open because of complexity and expenses Half of existing planned capacity additions are being planned by companies with no prior experience Reduced supply will increase energy prices
  • 7. Investment Thesis 7 Strong fundamental metrics with the lowest netbacks in peer group and competitive advantage through R&D •Upcoming pipeline repairs and updated capex guidelines •The Moqueta oil field in Colombia growth and Bretaňaoil discovery Relative Valuation •GTE undervalued on every metric; trading at 8.7 x 2015E P/E —below the industry average of 18.1 x •GTE’s stature as a leader in Latin America and growth warrant a higher valuation Argument I: Highest Netbacks and Upside Positioning Argument II: Production and Reserve Growth Argument III: Valuation Intrinsic Valuation •Both discounted cash flow and net asset value suggest target prices conservative to analyst estimates Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target Current financials make GTE attractive M&A takeover candidate and company is well-positioned for expansion into neighbouring countries such as Mexico Public Company Comparables O&G Specific Multiples Precedent Transactions Net Asset Value Discounted Cash Flow Daily Production EBITDAX Base Fully Risked •Increase in cash inflow •Medium-term production growth •Long-term growth beyond 2020 •Cash flow support the growth initiatives, mitigating need to raise equity in the future 71 62 Gran Tierra Peer Group Netbacks ($/bbl) $0 Debt
  • 8. Investment Thesis 8 Argument I: Highest Netbacks and Upside Positioning Potential M&A Candidate Future Potential Upside Opportunities Highest Netbacks within Peer Group Research and Development Costs GTE future netbacks: ~$75-79 (2014-18) Suggested high premium potential •Management hints at possibility to do business in Mexico •GTE positioned well to participate in Mexico’s planned licensing rounds •Spending $37 million to evaluate two unconventional oil-saturated sands in the RecôncavoBasin •Oil demand increase: 9.9% (Sept 2013-14) •Updated Report of Current Assets: Left Graph: 2010-13 Average Costs ($/boe) Higher price realizations and transportation cost reductions Future Upside Opportunities Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target $14 $20 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 R&D Costs Peer R&D 10 million net acres of potential land without reserves Attractive takeover candidate for firms looking for a foothold in region Major E&P player in Latin America Currently running on no debt Brazil Mexico Proven: 77% reserve increase Proven + Probable: ~48% reserve increase $64 $23 $36 $22 $46 $71 Clayton Williams Peyto Breitburn Valient Bankers Gran Tierra
  • 9. Investment Thesis 9 Argument II: Production and Reserve Growth Historical Reserves (mboe) Historical Production (bod/d) Attractive Opportunities for Reserve Growth Expanding Reserves of Current Mines 2P Expected 2014E: 122mm boe 0 50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2P Reserves (mboe) Proven Reserves Probable Reserves Possible Reserves 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 22,500 25,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Production (boe / d) 2014 Capex and Updated Guidelines Pipeline Repairs •Pipeline in Colombia was recently damaged due to landslide •Had to transport its oil by truck •Cash inflow of $40 per boewhen pipeline is repaired •CAPEX program of $482 million •Poised for additional production growth Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target 8.0 x 4.0 x Gran Tierra Closest Light Oil Peer: Petrominerales Resource Potential (Reserve / Prod) 30,000 boe/d gross working interest Drilling in Bretana, Exploration success in the Putumayo Basin Located: 50% in Colombia
  • 10. Valuation 10 Argument III: Valuation EV / EBITDAX Multiple (5.0 x Exit) EV/Daily Production Multiple ($100 Exit) Enterprise Value: $2,171 Less: Total Debt 0 Less: Preferred Securities 0 Less: Noncontrolling Interest 0 Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 347 Implied Equity Value: $2,518 Shares Oustanding: 275 Impl ied Price Per Share: $ 9.16 Enterprise Value: $1,552 Less: Total Debt 0 Less: Preferred Securities 0 Less: Noncontrolling Interest 0 Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 347 Implied Equity Value: $1,899 Shares Oustanding: 275 Impl ied Price Per Share: $ 6.91 Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target Valuation Statistic s Capi tal ization Enterprise Value / Enterprise Value / Equi ty Enterprise P / E Mul tiple P / BV Mul tiple EV/Prdn (bod/d) EV/DACF EV/2P Company Name Value Value LTM FY1 LTM FY1 LTM FY1 Total Tangible 2013E 2013E 2013E CLAYTON WILLIAMS ENERGY $ 889 $ 1,486 3.1 x 3.2 x 5.1 x 4.8 x 16.3 x 19.6 x 2.9 x 2.2 x NM 5.1 x 25.1 x APACHE CORPORATION 28,995 39,505 2.6 x 2.8 x 3.9 x 3.9 x 24.5 x 12.3 x 1.2 x 0.9 x 132.9 x 7.3 x 35.9 x CARRIZO OIL & GAS 2,223 3,236 5.2 x 4.6 x 11.9 x 6.0 x NM 17.7 x 3.7 x 2.6 x 58.4 x 4.2 x 16.8 x LAREDO PETROLEUM 2,720 3,821 5.6 x 5.0 x 9.1 x 7.2 x 41.6 x 22.1 x 3.5 x 2.2 x 136.6 x 2.2 x 21.7 x PEYTO EXP & DEV CORP 4,723 5,558 11.0 x 6.8 x 13.3 x 8.7 x 25.7 x 18.8 x 4.4 x 3.6 x 95.4 x 10.3 x 12.1 x BREITBURN ENERGY 2,274 4,268 5.1 x 5.5 x 25.6 x 9.2 x NM NM 1.5 x 1.1 x 133.6 x 7.5 x 20.2 x Median $ 2,497 $ 4,044 5.1 x 4.8 x 10.5 x 6.6 x 25.1 x 18.8 x 3.2 x 2.2 x 132.9 x 6.2 x 21.0 x Mean $ 6,971 $ 9,646 5.4 x 4.6 x 11.5 x 6.6 x 27.0 x 18.1 x 2.9 x 2.1 x 111.4 x 6.1 x 22.0 x Gran Tierra Energy Inc $ 1,395 $ 1,047 1.6 x 1.5 x 2.2 x 2.1 x 18.4 x 8.7 x 1.5 x 1.0 x 46.7 x 2.9 x 9.4 x Relative Premium (Discount) to Median (69%) (69%) (79%) (68%) (27%) (54%) (52%) (52%) (65%) (53%) (55%) Revenue EBITDA
  • 11. Valuation 11 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis ($ in millions, except per share data) Gran Tierra Energy Inc - Cash Flow Projec tions Gran Tierra FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY 2014E FY 2015E FY 2016E FY 2017E FY 2018E Revenue: $596 $583 $720 $ 760 $ 847 $ 890 $ 934 $ 981 EBITDAX: $464 $377 $526 $ 526 $ 580 $ 623 $ 654 $ 687 Operating Income: $233 $195 $258 $ 321 $ 373 $ 394 $ 414 $ 435 Less: Taxes ($107) ($98) ($136) ($136) ($168) ($163) ($171) ($179) Plus: Depreciation & Amortization $231 $182 $267 $183 $185 $210 $210 $210 Plus: Stock-Based Compensation $13 $12 $9 $0 $0 $13 $13 $13 Plus: Asset Retirement Accretion $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Plus: Dry Hole Expense $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Plus: Deferred Income Tax -29 26 -29 ($70) $34 ($14) ($14) ($14) Plus: Non-Cash Derivative Losses $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Plus: Other Non-Cash Items $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Less: Increase in Working Capital: $38 ($167) $168 ($88) $0 $0 $0 $0 Less: Capital Expenditures ($333) ($276) ($367) ($355) ($300) ($300) ($300) ($300) Unlevered Free Cash Flow $46 $ (126) $170 $ (145) $ 124 $ 141 $ 152 $ 164 Present Value of Free Cash Flow $ 161 $ (122) $ 94 $ 95 $ 92 $ 89 Normal Discount Period: 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 Mid-Year Discount: 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 Free Cash Flow Growth Rate: (373.0%) (235.6%) (184.8%) (185.7%) 13.5% 8.2% 8.0% Sensitivities Gran Tierra Energy - Net Present Value Sensi tivi ty - Terminal EBITDAX Mul tiples Discount Rate $ 9.16 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 2.0 x $ 6.08 $ 5.86 $ 5.65 $ 5.46 $ 5.27 $ 5.10 $ 4.93 3.0 x $ 7.66 $ 7.35 $ 7.06 $ 6.79 $ 6.54 $ 6.29 $ 6.07 4.0 x $ 9.23 $ 8.84 $ 8.47 $ 8.13 $ 7.80 $ 7.49 $ 7.21 5.0 x $ 10.80 $ 10.33 $ 9.88 $ 9.46 $ 9.07 $ 8.69 $ 8.34 6.0 x $ 12.38 $ 11.82 $ 11.29 $ 10.80 $ 10.33 $ 9.89 $ 9.48 7.0 x $ 13.95 $ 13.30 $ 12.70 $ 12.13 $ 11.60 $ 11.09 $ 10.62 8.0 x $ 15.52 $ 14.79 $ 14.11 $ 13.47 $ 12.86 $ 12.29 $ 11.76 Terminal EBITDAX Multiple Gran Tierra Energy - Net Present Value Sensi tivi ty - Dai ly Produc tion Mul tiple Discount Rate $ 6.91 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% $130.00 $ 9.57 $ 9.16 $ 8.77 $ 8.41 $ 8.07 $ 7.75 $ 7.45 $120.00 $ 9.06 $ 8.68 $ 8.32 $ 7.98 $ 7.66 $ 7.36 $ 7.08 $110.00 $ 8.55 $ 8.19 $ 7.86 $ 7.55 $ 7.25 $ 6.97 $ 6.71 $100.00 $ 8.04 $ 7.71 $ 7.40 $ 7.11 $ 6.84 $ 6.59 $ 6.34 $90.00 $ 7.53 $ 7.23 $ 6.95 $ 6.68 $ 6.43 $ 6.20 $ 5.98 $80.00 $ 7.02 $ 6.74 $ 6.49 $ 6.25 $ 6.02 $ 5.81 $ 5.61 $70.00 $ 6.51 $ 6.26 $ 6.03 $ 5.82 $ 5.61 $ 5.42 $ 5.24 Daily Production Multiples ($ Per McF) Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target
  • 12. Valuation 12 NAVPS Explanation NAVPS Analysis Net Asset Value (2014 FY1) Post-Tax PV Risked mmBOE $mm $C / Share Colombia 2P 50.9 $1,067.3 $4.10 Peru 2P 61.5 $277.4 $1.07 Brazil 2P 5.3 $106.4 $0.41 Total 2P Reserves 117.7 $1,451.1 $5.58 Net Cash/Debt $251.5 $0.97 Discounted proceeds from in-the-money options $5.2 0.02 Other Long-Term Investments $20.5 0.08 Base NAV 117.6 $1,728.3 6.64 Colombia Resource 28.4 $425.0 $1.57 Peru Resource 173 $840.8 $3.11 Brazil Resource 15.4 $108.1 $0.40 Total Upside Resources 216.8 $1,373.9 $5.07 Discounted proceeds from exercise-below-target options $51.8 $0.19 Discounted G&A ($228.5) ($0.84) Ful ly Risked NAV 334.4 $2,925.6 10.8 Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target Since international E&P’s may not have as many standards as Canada, lower multiple from international E&P’s requiring a risk premium for their lack of regulation in comparison to Canadian companies. 0.8 x 0.5 x 2.2 x 0.9 x 1.1 x 0.4 x GTE Base GTE Fully Risked Avg CDN Base Avg CDN Fully Risked Avg International Base Avg International Fully Risked Avg
  • 13. $13.77 13.04 19.06 13.27 8.29 12.49 20.31 15.20 6.64 7.80 6.95 7.80 6.95 10.28 9.17 9.66 $14.48 13.47 20.69 13.40 8.83 12.88 22.64 15.74 10.80 11.29 7.25 11.29 7.25 12.02 9.30 10.07 LTM EV / Revenue FY1 EV / Revenue LTM EV / EBITDA FY1 EV / EBITDA LTM P / E FY1 P / E P / BV P / Tangible BV NAVPS DCF Multiples Method (9-13%, 3.0-7.0 x) DCF Gordon Growth (9-13%, 1-5% Growth) EV / EBIT EV / EBITDA EV/Prdn… EV/DACF EV/2P Public Company Comparables Book Value Multiples and NAV DCF Valuation Precedent Transaction Analysis Oil & Gas SpecificMultiples Valuation 13 Summary •Relative valuation suggests much higher value and Gran Tierra is trading at a significant discount to the industry •Our NAVPS and DCF have more moderate estimates on future prices which are in line with the median of analyst targets •We have taken a conservativeapproach to our price target •Gran Tierra’s significant discount makes it a promising opportunity for investors interested in small-capcompanies Price Target: $8.00 Median Analyst Target: $9.78 Indicative Valuation Analysis: Football Field Graph Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target
  • 14. Catalysts 14 Global Environment Permits Successful Joint Drilling Campaign Leading to Increased Reserves •Expected to receive its global development permit for the Moquetafield imminently •GTE can develop the field with its optimal drilling locations; especially if the Coruntalocation is successful •Colombiaannounced plans to expedite environmental permit approvals •Will speed up infrastructure, mining and oil projects (to reduce the time to 5 months) Drilling campaign in Peru in Block 107 would improve the additional oil potential in the region and add up to $1.4/per share in value for GTE, or about 20-30% of current price Colombia: Moqueta-13development well was successfully drilled, tested ~1,500 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") November 27 OPEC Meeting Recent decreases in oil prices from Saudi Arabia raising oil production to protect market share against the US Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target •Peruviangovernment is speeding up the permitting process anticipating the field’s development curve Block 107 is estimated to have a prospective resource potential of ~50mn boe(adjusted by probability of success) Costayaco-21development went well. Production from both is expected to start in the 3Q of 2014 Furthermore, It would not make sense for Saudi Arabia to wage a price war and injure the US, an ally in the war against Islamic State Nov 20 price: $75.58 $153.40 $100.00 $80.00 $83.60 Iran Russia US SaudiArabia Pricing Needed to Breakeven National Budget According to IMF Estimates
  • 15. Associate Risks 15 Guerilla Activity in Colombia Lack of Diversification Storage/Transportation and Sales Dependence Core Production Base 2012 and 2013: Highly susceptible to regional factors such as geographic remoteness or weather conditions •The Company relies on local infrastructure and the availability of transportation for storage and shipment of its product 87 10 3 Colombia Argentina Brazil Peru All Other CostayacoField (Colombia) MoquetaField (Colombia) •Tested from the T-Sandstone formation at a rate 1,353 bbl/d of 27°API oil with 0.3% water cut •Producing at a plateau rate of17,900 bbl/d gross Putumayo-31 Block (Colombia) •GTE was determined to be the successful bidder of the Putumayo-31 Block in the 2014 Bid Round in Colombia subject to ANH approval 2013 Revenue Segmentation: Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target International market prices, lack of competition and reliance on a limited customers for sales Main Buyer in Brazil Main Buyer in Colombia Main Colombia Delivery Contractor Oil prices in Colombia are related to : Guerrilla activity in Colombia increased significantlywhich creates a greater risk for operations and employees Areas known for breeding place of guerilla activity Putumayo region Catatumboregion
  • 16. Associate Risks 16 Susceptibility to Commodity Prices and Markets GTE vs. COA (Crude Oil, Brent Active Contract) GTE vs. CLA (Crude Oil, WTI Contract) GTE vs. XOP (S&P E&P Index) •GTE has a fair correlation to both crude and brentoil prices •Crude represented by CLA Index •Brent represented by COA Index •Fair Correlation with S&P E&P Index y = 0.3825x + 0.1367R² = 0.2539 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 -10 -5 0 5 10 y = 0.1495x -0.0823R² = 0.1048 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 -10 -5 0 5 10 y = 0.1383x -0.239R² = 0.0962 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 -10 -5 0 5 10 Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target *2013 Annual Report: “We did not engage in any formal hedging activity with regard to foreign currency risk” •As a small-cap company, a risk premium must be attributed and considered •No found information on any hedging position to mitigate risk
  • 17. Price Target 17 Price-Volume Chart Analyst Price Target Comparison Distribution of Analyst Ratings Target and Return Summary 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oct-14 Aug-14 Jun-14 Apr-14 Feb-14 Dec-13 Buy Hold Price Target Price Price November 4:4.81 Capital Return:66.3% Dividend Return:0% Total Implied Return:66.3% Target Price$8.00 Soft Stop-Loss:$4.50 Hard Stop-Loss:$4.00 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Our Target Price Morningstar Desjardins Capital Markets Mackie Research TD Securities Cormarck Securities Nov 5 Price: $4.81 M 2M 4M 6M 8M 10M 12M 14M $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 $7.0 $8.0 $9.0 $10.0 $11.0 3-Jan 28-Feb 25-Apr 20-Jun 15-Aug 10-Oct Target Price: $8.00 Stop Loss: $4.50 Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target
  • 18. Bibliography 18 Equity Research Reports:Analyst: Wright GTE ValueEngine TD SecuritiesJamie Somerville MRA ResearchMichael Anderegg HSBCFrancisoSchumacher, Kevin Gonzalez MorningstarDavid McColl CanaccordGenuityChristopher Brown Cormack SecuritiesGarett Ursa, Calvin Bohdan Desjardins CapitalJustin Anderson Mackie ResearchBill Newman, Valentino Pintea Reports: •Will Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Perform Long Term? •ValuEngineRating and Forecast Report for GTE •Colombia Equity Insights:-Tax reform plans reinforce our underweight on Colombian equities •(GTE-T) On the Road with GTE •Red Book Sept. 2014(report) •Permit & pipe problems present opportunity; maintain BUY recommendation and C$9.50 target •South America Oil E & P Play –Potential Event Catalysts Upcoming •Rising Costs, Project Delays Reduced Appetite for EU Oil Shares (Bloomberg E&P Industry Primer) •BG’s Egypt Diversions, Higher Costs Overshadow Brazil Growth •Q2/14 Results In Line; Colombian Exploration Program Provides Steady Stream Of Catalysts •GTE's quiet summer coming to a close; catalysts set for 4Q14 •THOMSON REUTERS STREETEVENTS EDITED TRANSCRIPT GTE -Q2 2014 Gran Tierra Energy IncEarnings Call •Exploration Program Coming Up In H2/14 •OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2013 •Company’s Annual Reports Authors: Marissa Goodbody Seth Barnet Forbes HasmirAbdula Jim Brewer Articles: •Weak On High Volume: Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) •Gran Tierra Energy Sees Large Increase in Short Interest (GTE) •Relative Strength Alert For Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) •Gran Tierra Energy Given Consensus Rating of “Buy” by Analysts (NYSE:GTE) •Short Interest in Gran Tierra Energy Decreases By 18.8% (GTE) (Sources cited and additional reading material) Analytic Services: Bloomberg Thomson One Capital IQ Back to Table of Contents
  • 19. Appendix Table of Contents 19 Click a box below to reach the slide WACC/Cap Table Precedent Comps Precedent M&A List Colombia Properties Argentina Properties Brazil Properties Comps Calculations Broker Analysis Rolling Ratios Institutional Ownership Implied Valuation
  • 20. Appendix 20 Multiples Implied Valuation Low High Metric Low High Public Company Comparables: LTM EV / Revenue 5.1 x 5.4 x $ 654 $ 13.77 $ 14.48 FY1 EV / Revenue 4.6 x 4.8 x $ 700 13.04 13.47 LTM EV / EBITDA 10.5 x 11.5 x $ 466 19.06 20.69 FY1 EV / EBITDA 6.6 x 6.6 x $ 503 13.27 13.40 LTM P / E 25.1 x 27.0 x $ 77 8.29 8.83 FY1 P / E 18.1 x 18.8 x $ 170 12.49 12.88 NAVPS and Book Value Multiples P / BV 2.9 x 3.2 x $ 1,826 20.31 22.64 P / Tangible BV 2.1 x 2.2 x $ 1,826 15.20 15.74 NAVPS 6.64 10.80 DCF Valuation DCF Multiples Method (9-13%, 3.0-7.0 x) 7.80 11.29 DCF Gordon Growth (9-13%, 1-5% Growth) 6.95 7.25 Precedent Transaction Analysis EV / EBIT 24.1 x 30.1 x $68 7.80 11.29 EV / EBITDA 11.35 13.33 $ 466 6.95 7.25 Balance Sheet Adj. 347.00 Shares Outstanding 275.00 Implied Valuation
  • 21. Appendix 21 WACC Analysis and Capitalization Table Capitalization Table Consolidated Market Cap 1,321 - Cash and Short Term 347 + Short Term Debt - + Long Term Debt - + Preferred Stock - + Minority Interest - = Enterprise Value 974 Go Back to Appendix Overview WACC Analysis ($ in millions, except per share data) Discount Rate Calculation - Assumptions Risk-Free Rate: 2.4% Equity Risk Premium: 7.0% Interest Rate on Debt: 0.0% Comparable Companies - Unlevered Beta Calculation Levered Equi ty Unlevered Name Beta Debt Value Tax Rate Beta CLAYTON WILLIAMS ENERGY, INC. 2.56 $ 632 $ 889 36.0% 1.76 APACHE CORPORATION 1.43 9,675 28,995 45.7% 1.21 CARRIZO OIL & GAS, INC. 2.00 1,022 2,223 35.0% 1.54 LAREDO PETROLEUM, INC 1.95 1,501 2,720 39.0% 1.46 PEYTO EXP/DEV CORP 0.40 825 4,723 35.0% 0.36 BREITBURN ENERGY PARTNERS L.P. 0.3 1812 2,274 35.0% 0.20 Median 1.69 1.33 Gran Tierra Energy Inc 1.17 Gran Tierra - Levered Beta & WACC Calculation Unlevered Equi ty Levered Beta Debt Value Tax Rate Beta Gran Tierra Energy Inc 1.33 $ - $ 1,395 35% $ 1.33 Cost of Equity Based on Comparables: 11.8% Cost of Equity Based on Historical Beta: 10.6% WACC 11.8% WACC = Cost of Equity * % Equity + Cost of Debt * % Debt * (1 - Tax Rate) + Cost of Preferred Stock * % Preferred Stock
  • 22. Appendix 22 Precedent Transaction Analysis: Deal Breakdown and Multiples Deal Attribute Target Multiples # Deals Min - Max Median Min Max Average Net Income 5 7.33 - 88.03 58.7 x 7.3 x 88.0 x 47.7 x Free Cashflow 4 8.98 - 77.72 53.3 x 9.0 x 77.7 x 43.4 x Income B/F XO 5 7.33 - 79.05 52.4 x 7.3 x 79.1 x 43.2 x Net Income + Deprec 5 2.67 - 88.03 32.7 x 2.7 x 88.0 x 45.4 x EBIT 5 3.95 - 56.33 24.1 x 4.0 x 56.3 x 30.1 x EBITDA 5 2.15 - 24.51 11.4 x 2.2 x 24.5 x 13.3 x Cashflow from Ops. 5 2.46 - 33.56 8.5 x 2.5 x 33.6 x 18.0 x Revenue 6 1.23 - 193.53 8.0 x 1.2 x 193.5 x 97.4 x Book Value 6 .94 - 68.45 6.0 x 0.9 x 68.5 x 34.7 x Stockholder Eqty 6 .94 - 68.45 6.0 x 0.9 x 68.5 x 34.7 x Market Cap 3 1.06 - 3.14 2.8 x 1.1 x 3.1 x 2.1 x Total Assets 6 .58 - 21.60 1.8 x 0.6 x 21.6 x 11.1 x Enterprise Value 3 1.25 - 2.02 1.3 x 1.3 x 2.0 x 1.6 x Premiums Paid # Deals Volume Percent 50.01-75% 1 1.34B 8% 8% 25.01-50% 2 2.32B 13% Go Back to Appendix Overview
  • 23. Appendix 23 Precedent Transaction Analysis: Listed Deal Transactions Deal Type Announce Date Target Name Acquirer Name Seller Name Announced Total Value (mil.) Payment Type TV/EBITDA Deal Status M&A 11/13/2013 Petrobras Energia Peru SA China National Petroleum Corp Petroleo Brasileiro SA 2600 Cash Completed M&A 4/30/2014 Heritage Oil PLC Al Mirqab Capital SPC 1883.74 Cash 11.35 Completed M&A 8/19/2013 BC-10 block/Brazil Sinochem International Corp Petroleo Brasileiro SA 1540 Cash Terminated INV 6/14/2013 Petrobras Oil & Gas BV Grupo BTG Pactual,Helios Investment Partners LLP (Fund: Helios Investors II LP) Petroleo Brasileiro SA 1525 Cash Completed M&A 9/29/2013 Petrominerales Ltd Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp 1335.01 Cash 2.67 Completed M&A 11/22/2013 Northern Blizzard Resources Inc Potential Buyer Riverstone Holdings LLC,NGP Energy Capital Management LLC 1000 Cash Withdrawn M&A 2/12/2014 Argentinian business YPF SA Apache Corp 852 Cash Completed M&A 5/7/2013 Blocks BM-C-39 & BM-C-40 Petroliam Nasional Bhd Oleo e Gas Participacoes SA 850 Cash Terminated INV 3/24/2014 Transportadora de Gas del Peru SA Canada Pension Plan Investment Board Tecpetrol SA,Tecpetrol International SA,Tecpetrol Internacional SLU 607 Cash 24.51 Completed M&A 8/16/2013 Trinidad and Tobago Holdings LLC National Gas Co of Trinidad & Tobago Ltd ConocoPhillips 600 Cash Completed INV 12/9/2013 Oleoducto Central SA AFP Proteccion SA,Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores,Advent International Corp (Fund: Advent International GPE VII LP) Talisman Energy Inc 595 Cash Completed M&A 10/14/2013 BC-10 block/Brazil Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd Petroleo Brasileiro SA 529 Cash Completed INV 9/18/2014 Sierra Oil & Gas S de RL de CV Infraestructura Institucional Srl,Riverstone Holdings LLC (Fund: Riverstone Global Energy & Power Fund V LP)… 525 Cash Completed M&A 11/19/2012 C&C Energia Ltd Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp 440.85 Cash and Stock 2.15 Completed M&A 11/26/2013 OFD Holding Inc Yara International ASA Omimex Resources Inc 377 Cash Completed INV 10/31/2013 OAS Oleo e Gas FI-FGTS 357.85 Cash Completed INV 8/20/2013 Primax Comercial Del Ecuador SA,Manu Peru Holding SA,Atimasa SA Romero Trading SA Empresa Nacional del Petroleo 308.5 Cash Completed M&A 3/25/2013 Occidental Quimica do Brasil Ltda Unipar Carbocloro SA Occidental Petroleum Corp 300.4 Cash Completed M&A 12/16/2013 Harvest Vinccler Dutch Holding BV Pluspetrol Resources Corp NV,Petroandina Resources Corp NV Harvest Natural Resources Inc 275 Undisclosed Completed M&A 11/26/2012 Block BS-4/Santos Basin Oleo e Gas Participacoes SA Petroleo Brasileiro SA 270 Cash Completed M&A 5/13/2014 Verano Energy Ltd Parex Resources Inc 260.94 Cash and Stock Completed INV 11/20/2013 Transportadora de Gas del Peru SA Grana y Montero SAA Pluspetrol SA 237 Cash 18.2 Completed Go Back to Appendix Overview
  • 24. Appendix 24 Properties in Colombia Go Back to Appendix Overview
  • 25. Appendix 25 Properties in Argentina that were Sold Go Back to Appendix Overview
  • 26. Appendix 26 Properties in Brazil Go Back to Appendix Overview
  • 27. Appendix 27 Comparable Companies - Exploration Oil and Gas Companies, with Market Caps Above 800M ($ in Millions Except Per Share and Per Unit Data) Operat ing Stat i s t i cs Capi tal i zat ion Projected Projected Equi ty Enterpri se Revenue EBITDA Reported Net Income Revenue EBITDA EBITDA Margin Company Name Value Value LTM F Y1 LTM F Y1 LTM F Y1 Growth Growth LTM F Y1 CLAYTON WILLIAMS ENERGY $ 889 $ 1,486 $ 486 $ 466 $ 292 $ 307 $ 55 $ 42 83.8% 103.7% 60.2% 65.9% APACHE CORPORATION 28,995 39,505 15,347 14,255 10,239 10,052 15 2,431 21.1% (22.7%) 66.7% 70.5% CARRIZO OIL & GAS 2,223 3,236 625 710 273 544 (11) 122 144.5% (17.5%) 43.7% 76.6% LAREDO PETROLEUM 2,720 3,821 681 759 418 533 62 130 50.7% (1.8%) 61.5% 70.2% PEYTO EXP & DEV CORP 4,723 5,558 620 821 515 638 181 254 35.8% 38.6% 83.0% 77.7% BREITBURN ENERGY 2,274 4,268 838 780 167 463 (198) (54) 31.9% (16.2%) 19.9% 59.4% Median $ 2,497 $ 4,044 $ 653 $ 769 $ 355 $ 538 $ 35 $ 126 43.2% (9.0%) 60.8% 70.3% Mean $ 6,971 $ 3,382 $ 621 $ 722 $ 278 $ 481 $ (5) $ 62 32.9% (17.2%) 47.8% 67.0% Gran Tierra Energy Inc $ 1,395 $ 1,047 $ 654 $ 700 $ 466 $ 503 $ 77 $ 170 37.0% (5.5%) 71.4% 71.9% Go Back to Appendix Overview
  • 28. Appendix 28 Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date HSBC LUIZ CARVALHO overweight 7.94 20-Nov-14 JPMorgan FELIPE DOS SANTOS overweight 10.23 13-Nov-14 RBC Capital Markets NATHAN PIPER outperform 11.00 10-Nov-14 Canaccord Genuity Corp CHRISTOPHER BROWN buy 9.50 10-Nov-14 Morningstar, Inc JASON STEVENS buy 10-Nov-14 Cormark Securities Inc. GARETT URSU buy 9.00 7-Nov-14 FirstEnergy Capital Corp DARREN B ENGELS outperform 9.00 7-Nov-14 TD Securities JAMIE SOMERVILLE buy 10.00 7-Nov-14 Mackie Research Capital Corp. BILL NEWMAN buy 8.75 7-Nov-14 Credit Suisse DAVID PHUNG outperform 8.58 6-Nov-14 Peters & Co Ltd DAN GRAGER sector outperform 7.50 6-Nov-14 Scotia Capital GAVIN WYLIE sector outperform 11.00 6-Nov-14 Paradigm Capital Inc IAN W MACQUEEN buy 9.25 6-Nov-14 GMP DAVID BEDDIS buy 10.75 6-Nov-14 Edgecrest Capital VICTOR VALLANCE buy 7.00 6-Nov-14 Goldman Sachs SERGIO CONTI neutral/neutral 7.50 26-Oct-14 ITG Investment Research IAN NIEBOER no rating system 8-Jul-14 EVA Dimensions NEIL FONSECA buy 28-Apr-14 Morningstar, Inc DAVID MCCOLL hold 10.00 8-Apr-14 Jennings Capital JAMES HUMEN Under Review 31-Jan-14 Tudor Pickering & Co MATTHEW PORTILLO hold 11.15 29-Jan-14 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 HSBC JPMorgan RBC Capital Markets Canaccord Genuity Corp Morningstar, Inc Cormark Securities Inc. FirstEnergy Capital Corp TD Securities Mackie Research Capital Corp. Credit Suisse Peters & Co Ltd Scotia Capital Paradigm Capital Inc GMP Edgecrest Capital Goldman Sachs ITG Investment Research EVA Dimensions Morningstar, Inc Jennings Capital Tudor Pickering & Co Brokers' Target Price Analyst/Broker Ratings and Target Prices Go Back to Appendix Overview
  • 29. Appendix 29 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Price Earnings Ratio (Rolling FY1, FY2, FY3) P/E FY1 P/E FY2 P/E FY3 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 EV EBITDA Ratio (Rolling FY1, FY2, FY3) EV/EBITDA FY1 EV/EBITDA FY2 EV/EBITDA FY3 Rolling Ratios P / E and EV / EBITDA Go Back to Appendix Overview
  • 30. Appendix 30 Institutional Ownership Breakdown Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country FMR LLC 19,572,002 -3,980,589 100,600,090 7.09% 9/30/2014 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES MASSACHUSETTS FINANC 15,572,380 5,841,019 80,042,033 5.64% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES WASATCH ADVISORS INC 13,257,723 1,359,621 68,144,696 4.80% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES AMBER CAPITAL LP 9,035,358 -1,203,009 46,441,740 3.27% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 8,473,686 66,514 43,554,746 3.07% 9/30/2014 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES CANADA PENSION PLAN 8,408,300 -1,573,302 43,218,662 3.05% 9/30/2014 13F CANADA GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OT 5,373,162 625,962 27,618,053 1.95% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES INVESCO LTD 4,883,043 68,103 25,098,841 1.77% 9/30/2014 ULT-AGG CANADA BCIMC INVESTMENT MAN 4,801,338 0 24,678,877 1.74% 3/31/2014 CAN-PE CANADA FRANKLIN RESOURCES 4,491,102 440,401 23,084,264 1.63% 9/30/2014 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES INGALLS & SNYDER 4,489,453 127,000 23,075,788 1.63% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES IG INVESTMENT MANAGE 4,451,039 -312,930 22,878,340 1.61% 9/30/2014 13F CANADA CARMIGNAC GESTION 4,327,000 0 22,240,780 1.57% 9/30/2014 MF-AGG FRANCE THORNBURG INVESTMENT 4,072,673 0 20,933,539 1.48% 6/30/2014 MF-USA UNITED STATES SCHRODER INVESTMENT 3,711,312 -1,534,457 19,076,144 1.34% 9/30/2014 13F BRITAIN LIBRA ADVISORS LLC 3,505,880 2,544,200 18,020,223 1.27% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES NUMERIC INVESTORS LL 3,411,726 571,600 17,536,272 1.24% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES GRANDEUR PEAK GLOBAL 3,078,350 390,225 15,822,719 1.12% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES VANGUARD GROUP INC 3,034,285 233,557 15,596,225 1.10% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES TORONTO-DOMINION BAN 2,864,691 -52,072 14,724,512 1.04% 9/30/2014 ULT-AGG CANADA Go Back to Appendix Overview