3. Jun 3, 2014
Jun 26, 2014
Company Overview
3
Company Overview
Internal/External
Investment Thesis
Valuation
Catalysts
Associate Risks
Price Target
Business Overview and Strategy
Recent News
Management
Relevant M&A Transactions of Subordinates (2009-14)
Business Strategy:
•Establishing bases of assets by:
•Closed sale of its Argentina Business for ~$69 million USD
•Sold to MadalenaEnergy
•Increased focus on Colombia and Peru for second half of 2014
Past Experiences
•VP of EnCana Corporation
•New Ventures Manager for Alberta Energy Company
DANA COFFIELD
CEO
Past Experiences
•Financial management of Canadian and American oil and gas E&P companies
JAMES ROZON
CFO
Past Experiences
•President and CEO of First Calgary PetroleumsLtd
SHANE P. O’LEARY
COO
•2014 drilling campaign: initial well test results are promising for the Bretañaand Moquetaoil fields in Peru and Colombia
Acquired
May 29, 2014
Acquired
Aug 19,2013
Acquired
Jan 17, 2011
Acquired
Sep 20,2010
Acquired
Aug 30, 2010
Acquired
Apr 9,2009
Selective acquisitions; reserve &production growth through drilling
Duplicating business model in other areas
Disposal of non-core assets through farm- outs or outright disposition of assets
Independent international company
Oil and Natural Gas
Acquisition, exploration, development, production
+
+
4. Internal Analysis
4
Company Overview
Internal/External
Investment Thesis
Valuation
Catalysts
Associate Risks
Price Target
Areas of Operations: Colombia, Peru, and Brazil
Independent O&G Segmentation by Market Cap
Absolute Return Relative to E&P S&P Index (XOP)
Calgary Headquarters
7%
1%
59%
22%
2%
9%
Canadian-Based Small to Large Market Cap O&G Companies
Baytex
Bellatrix
Canadian NaturalResources
Crescent Point
Gran Tierra
Talisman
-35.0%
-25.0%
-15.0%
-5.0%
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
XOP
GTE
Operations carried out in South America in Colombia, Peru and Brazil, and headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada
5. 88
89
90
91
92
93
94
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014
2015
External Analysis: Oil Pricing
5
Oil Outlook
OPEC Overview
Crude and Brent Oil Spread (Active Contract COA)
Total World Demand
•Contrasting the fall in WTI crude oil prices this year, oil equities have rallied and hover above their historical average
•Crude has been performing better relatively to Brent
OPEC pumped avg1.7 MM/day morethan its 24.845 MM 2008-11 Daily Quota
Basket Price: $74.05 Nov 19, 2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan 3
Mar 3
May 3
Jul 3
Sep 3
Crude
Brent
Spread
1,200B, 81%
277B, 19%
OPEC’s Share of World Oil
OPEC
Non-OPEC
Company Overview
Internal/External
Investment Thesis
Valuation
Catalysts
Associate Risks
Price Target
Surge in U.S. and Saudi Arabia crude oil production will displace imported light blends and reduce U.S. reliance on imports
Imports to fall below 6M barrels in 2015
Basket Price: $74.05 Nov 19, 2014
6. External Analysis: Bullish Outlook
6
Sanctions on Russia –Boost Oil Prices
Shortfall in Forecasts
Production Rates using Different Technologies
Supply Prospects for 2025 (mtpa) by BG Group
Forecasts for additions in liquefied natural gas by 2025 fell by 35%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Flow rates, m^3/day
Time since the beginning of the work, days
Horizontal wells with multistage hydraulic fracturing
Vertical wells with hydraulic fracturing
Multiple of 3.5 x
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013
2025
Onstream
Under Construction
Future Supply Prospects
-35% Current outlook for 2025 Supply
Company Overview
Internal/External
Investment Thesis
Valuation
Catalysts
Associate Risks
Price Target
Oil companies in Russia are being barred access to latest US and European exploration and production technology as a consequence of political sanctions
2013: Russia contributed 12.4% to global supply
Technology differences: Horizontal vs. Vertical wells
Will reduce Russia oil exports and raise prices
Many planned liquefaction plants never open because of complexity and expenses
Half of existing planned capacity additions are being planned by companies with no prior experience
Reduced supply will increase energy prices
7. Investment Thesis
7
Strong fundamental metrics with the lowest netbacks in peer group and competitive advantage through R&D
•Upcoming pipeline repairs and updated capex guidelines
•The Moqueta oil field in Colombia growth and Bretaňaoil discovery
Relative Valuation
•GTE undervalued on every metric; trading at 8.7 x 2015E P/E —below the industry average of 18.1 x
•GTE’s stature as a leader in Latin America and growth warrant a higher valuation
Argument I: Highest Netbacks and Upside Positioning
Argument II: Production and Reserve Growth
Argument III: Valuation
Intrinsic Valuation
•Both discounted cash flow and net asset value suggest target prices conservative to analyst estimates
Company Overview
Internal/External
Investment Thesis
Valuation
Catalysts
Associate Risks
Price Target
Current financials make GTE attractive M&A takeover candidate and company is well-positioned for expansion into neighbouring countries such as Mexico
Public Company Comparables
O&G Specific Multiples
Precedent Transactions
Net Asset Value
Discounted Cash Flow
Daily Production
EBITDAX
Base
Fully Risked
•Increase in cash inflow
•Medium-term production growth
•Long-term growth beyond 2020
•Cash flow support the growth initiatives, mitigating need to raise equity in the future
71
62
Gran Tierra
Peer Group
Netbacks ($/bbl)
$0
Debt
8. Investment Thesis
8
Argument I: Highest Netbacks and Upside Positioning
Potential M&A Candidate
Future Potential Upside Opportunities
Highest Netbacks within Peer Group
Research and Development Costs
GTE future netbacks: ~$75-79 (2014-18)
Suggested high premium potential
•Management hints at possibility to do business in Mexico
•GTE positioned well to participate in Mexico’s planned licensing rounds
•Spending $37 million to evaluate two unconventional oil-saturated sands in the RecôncavoBasin
•Oil demand increase:
9.9% (Sept 2013-14)
•Updated Report of Current Assets:
Left Graph: 2010-13 Average Costs ($/boe)
Higher price realizations and transportation cost reductions
Future Upside Opportunities
Company Overview
Internal/External
Investment Thesis
Valuation
Catalysts
Associate Risks
Price Target
$14
$20
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
R&D Costs
Peer R&D
10 million net acres of potential land without reserves
Attractive takeover candidate for firms looking for a foothold in region
Major E&P player in Latin America
Currently running on no debt
Brazil
Mexico
Proven: 77% reserve increase
Proven + Probable: ~48% reserve increase
$64
$23
$36
$22
$46
$71
Clayton Williams
Peyto
Breitburn
Valient
Bankers
Gran Tierra
9. Investment Thesis
9
Argument II: Production and Reserve Growth
Historical Reserves (mboe)
Historical Production (bod/d)
Attractive Opportunities for Reserve Growth
Expanding Reserves of Current Mines
2P Expected 2014E:
122mm boe
0
50
100
150
200
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2P Reserves (mboe)
Proven Reserves
Probable Reserves
Possible Reserves
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
25,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Production (boe / d)
2014 Capex and Updated Guidelines
Pipeline Repairs
•Pipeline in Colombia was recently damaged due to landslide
•Had to transport its oil by truck
•Cash inflow of $40 per boewhen pipeline is repaired
•CAPEX program of $482 million
•Poised for additional production growth
Company Overview
Internal/External
Investment Thesis
Valuation
Catalysts
Associate Risks
Price Target
8.0 x
4.0 x
Gran Tierra
Closest Light Oil Peer: Petrominerales
Resource Potential (Reserve / Prod)
30,000 boe/d gross working interest
Drilling in Bretana, Exploration success in the Putumayo Basin
Located:
50% in Colombia
10. Valuation
10
Argument III: Valuation
EV / EBITDAX Multiple (5.0 x Exit) EV/Daily Production Multiple ($100 Exit)
Enterprise Value: $2,171
Less: Total Debt 0
Less: Preferred Securities 0
Less: Noncontrolling Interest 0
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 347
Implied Equity Value: $2,518
Shares Oustanding: 275
Impl ied Price Per Share: $ 9.16
Enterprise Value: $1,552
Less: Total Debt 0
Less: Preferred Securities 0
Less: Noncontrolling Interest 0
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 347
Implied Equity Value: $1,899
Shares Oustanding: 275
Impl ied Price Per Share: $ 6.91
Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target
Valuation Statistic s Capi tal ization Enterprise Value / Enterprise Value /
Equi ty Enterprise P / E Mul tiple P / BV Mul tiple
EV/Prdn
(bod/d) EV/DACF EV/2P
Company Name Value Value LTM FY1 LTM FY1 LTM FY1 Total Tangible 2013E 2013E 2013E
CLAYTON WILLIAMS ENERGY $ 889 $ 1,486 3.1 x 3.2 x 5.1 x 4.8 x 16.3 x 19.6 x 2.9 x 2.2 x NM 5.1 x 25.1 x
APACHE CORPORATION 28,995 39,505 2.6 x 2.8 x 3.9 x 3.9 x 24.5 x 12.3 x 1.2 x 0.9 x 132.9 x 7.3 x 35.9 x
CARRIZO OIL & GAS 2,223 3,236 5.2 x 4.6 x 11.9 x 6.0 x NM 17.7 x 3.7 x 2.6 x 58.4 x 4.2 x 16.8 x
LAREDO PETROLEUM 2,720 3,821 5.6 x 5.0 x 9.1 x 7.2 x 41.6 x 22.1 x 3.5 x 2.2 x 136.6 x 2.2 x 21.7 x
PEYTO EXP & DEV CORP 4,723 5,558 11.0 x 6.8 x 13.3 x 8.7 x 25.7 x 18.8 x 4.4 x 3.6 x 95.4 x 10.3 x 12.1 x
BREITBURN ENERGY 2,274 4,268 5.1 x 5.5 x 25.6 x 9.2 x NM NM 1.5 x 1.1 x 133.6 x 7.5 x 20.2 x
Median $ 2,497 $ 4,044 5.1 x 4.8 x 10.5 x 6.6 x 25.1 x 18.8 x 3.2 x 2.2 x 132.9 x 6.2 x 21.0 x
Mean $ 6,971 $ 9,646 5.4 x 4.6 x 11.5 x 6.6 x 27.0 x 18.1 x 2.9 x 2.1 x 111.4 x 6.1 x 22.0 x
Gran Tierra Energy Inc $ 1,395 $ 1,047 1.6 x 1.5 x 2.2 x 2.1 x 18.4 x 8.7 x 1.5 x 1.0 x 46.7 x 2.9 x 9.4 x
Relative Premium (Discount) to Median (69%) (69%) (79%) (68%) (27%) (54%) (52%) (52%) (65%) (53%) (55%)
Revenue EBITDA
12. Valuation
12
NAVPS Explanation
NAVPS Analysis
Net Asset Value (2014 FY1) Post-Tax PV
Risked
mmBOE $mm
$C /
Share
Colombia 2P 50.9 $1,067.3 $4.10
Peru 2P 61.5 $277.4 $1.07
Brazil 2P 5.3 $106.4 $0.41
Total 2P Reserves 117.7 $1,451.1 $5.58
Net Cash/Debt $251.5 $0.97
Discounted proceeds from in-the-money options $5.2 0.02
Other Long-Term Investments $20.5 0.08
Base NAV 117.6 $1,728.3 6.64
Colombia Resource 28.4 $425.0 $1.57
Peru Resource 173 $840.8 $3.11
Brazil Resource 15.4 $108.1 $0.40
Total Upside Resources 216.8 $1,373.9 $5.07
Discounted proceeds from exercise-below-target options $51.8 $0.19
Discounted G&A ($228.5) ($0.84)
Ful ly Risked NAV 334.4 $2,925.6 10.8
Company Overview Internal/External Investment Thesis Valuation Catalysts Associate Risks Price Target
Since international E&P’s may not have as many
standards as Canada, lower multiple from
international E&P’s requiring a risk premium for
their lack of regulation in comparison to
Canadian companies.
0.8 x
0.5 x
2.2 x
0.9 x
1.1 x
0.4 x
GTE Base GTE Fully Risked Avg CDN Base Avg CDN Fully
Risked
Avg International
Base
Avg International
Fully Risked
Avg
13. $13.77
13.04
19.06
13.27
8.29
12.49
20.31
15.20
6.64
7.80
6.95
7.80
6.95
10.28
9.17
9.66
$14.48
13.47
20.69
13.40
8.83
12.88
22.64
15.74
10.80
11.29
7.25
11.29
7.25
12.02
9.30
10.07
LTM EV / Revenue
FY1 EV / Revenue
LTM EV / EBITDA
FY1 EV / EBITDA
LTM P / E
FY1 P / E
P / BV
P / Tangible BV
NAVPS
DCF Multiples Method (9-13%, 3.0-7.0 x)
DCF Gordon Growth (9-13%, 1-5% Growth)
EV / EBIT
EV / EBITDA
EV/Prdn…
EV/DACF
EV/2P
Public Company Comparables
Book Value Multiples and NAV
DCF Valuation
Precedent Transaction Analysis
Oil & Gas SpecificMultiples
Valuation
13
Summary
•Relative valuation suggests much higher value and Gran Tierra is trading at a significant discount to the industry
•Our NAVPS and DCF have more moderate estimates on future prices which are in line with the median of analyst targets
•We have taken a conservativeapproach to our price target
•Gran Tierra’s significant discount makes it a promising opportunity for investors interested in small-capcompanies
Price Target: $8.00
Median Analyst Target: $9.78
Indicative Valuation Analysis: Football Field Graph
Company Overview
Internal/External
Investment Thesis
Valuation
Catalysts
Associate Risks
Price Target
14. Catalysts
14
Global Environment Permits
Successful Joint Drilling Campaign Leading to Increased Reserves
•Expected to receive its global development permit for the Moquetafield imminently
•GTE can develop the field with its optimal drilling locations; especially if the Coruntalocation is successful
•Colombiaannounced plans to expedite environmental permit approvals
•Will speed up infrastructure, mining and oil projects (to reduce the time to 5 months)
Drilling campaign in Peru in Block 107 would improve the additional oil potential in the region and add up to $1.4/per share in value for GTE, or about 20-30% of current price
Colombia: Moqueta-13development well was successfully drilled, tested ~1,500 barrels of oil per day ("bopd")
November 27 OPEC Meeting
Recent decreases in oil prices from Saudi Arabia raising oil production to protect market share against the US
Company Overview
Internal/External
Investment Thesis
Valuation
Catalysts
Associate Risks
Price Target
•Peruviangovernment is speeding up the permitting process anticipating the field’s development curve
Block 107 is estimated to have a prospective resource potential of ~50mn boe(adjusted by probability of success)
Costayaco-21development went well. Production from both is expected to start in the 3Q of 2014
Furthermore, It would not make sense for Saudi Arabia to wage a price war and injure the US, an ally in the war against Islamic State
Nov 20 price: $75.58
$153.40
$100.00
$80.00
$83.60
Iran
Russia
US
SaudiArabia
Pricing Needed to Breakeven National Budget
According to IMF Estimates
15. Associate Risks
15
Guerilla Activity in Colombia
Lack of Diversification
Storage/Transportation and Sales Dependence
Core Production Base
2012 and 2013:
Highly susceptible to regional factors such as geographic remoteness or weather conditions
•The Company relies on local infrastructure and the availability of transportation for storage and shipment of its product
87
10
3
Colombia
Argentina
Brazil
Peru
All Other
CostayacoField (Colombia)
MoquetaField (Colombia)
•Tested from the T-Sandstone formation at a rate 1,353 bbl/d of 27°API oil with 0.3% water cut
•Producing at a plateau rate of17,900 bbl/d gross
Putumayo-31 Block (Colombia)
•GTE was determined to be the successful bidder of the Putumayo-31 Block in the 2014 Bid Round in Colombia subject to ANH approval
2013 Revenue Segmentation:
Company Overview
Internal/External
Investment Thesis
Valuation
Catalysts
Associate Risks
Price Target
International market prices, lack of competition and reliance on a limited customers for sales
Main Buyer in Brazil
Main Buyer in Colombia
Main Colombia Delivery Contractor
Oil prices in Colombia are related to :
Guerrilla activity in Colombia increased significantlywhich creates a greater risk for operations and employees
Areas known for breeding place of guerilla activity
Putumayo region
Catatumboregion
16. Associate Risks
16
Susceptibility to Commodity Prices and Markets
GTE vs. COA (Crude Oil, Brent Active Contract)
GTE vs. CLA (Crude Oil, WTI Contract)
GTE vs. XOP (S&P E&P Index)
•GTE has a fair correlation to both crude and brentoil prices
•Crude represented by CLA Index
•Brent represented by COA Index
•Fair Correlation with S&P E&P Index
y = 0.3825x + 0.1367R² = 0.2539
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-10
-5
0
5
10
y = 0.1495x -0.0823R² = 0.1048
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-10
-5
0
5
10
y = 0.1383x -0.239R² = 0.0962
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-10
-5
0
5
10
Company Overview
Internal/External
Investment Thesis
Valuation
Catalysts
Associate Risks
Price Target
*2013 Annual Report: “We did not engage in any formal hedging activity with regard to foreign currency risk”
•As a small-cap company, a risk premium must be attributed and considered
•No found information on any hedging position to mitigate risk
17. Price Target
17
Price-Volume Chart
Analyst Price Target Comparison
Distribution of Analyst Ratings
Target and Return Summary
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Buy
Hold
Price
Target Price
Price November 4:4.81
Capital Return:66.3%
Dividend Return:0%
Total Implied Return:66.3%
Target Price$8.00
Soft Stop-Loss:$4.50
Hard Stop-Loss:$4.00
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Our Target Price
Morningstar
Desjardins Capital Markets
Mackie Research
TD Securities
Cormarck Securities
Nov 5 Price: $4.81
M
2M
4M
6M
8M
10M
12M
14M
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
$7.0
$8.0
$9.0
$10.0
$11.0
3-Jan
28-Feb
25-Apr
20-Jun
15-Aug
10-Oct
Target Price: $8.00
Stop Loss: $4.50
Company Overview
Internal/External
Investment Thesis
Valuation
Catalysts
Associate Risks
Price Target
18. Bibliography
18
Equity Research Reports:Analyst:
Wright GTE
ValueEngine
TD SecuritiesJamie Somerville
MRA ResearchMichael Anderegg
HSBCFrancisoSchumacher, Kevin Gonzalez
MorningstarDavid McColl
CanaccordGenuityChristopher Brown
Cormack SecuritiesGarett Ursa, Calvin Bohdan
Desjardins CapitalJustin Anderson
Mackie ResearchBill Newman, Valentino Pintea
Reports:
•Will Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Perform Long Term?
•ValuEngineRating and Forecast Report for GTE
•Colombia Equity Insights:-Tax reform plans reinforce our underweight on Colombian equities
•(GTE-T) On the Road with GTE
•Red Book Sept. 2014(report)
•Permit & pipe problems present opportunity; maintain BUY recommendation and C$9.50 target
•South America Oil E & P Play –Potential Event Catalysts Upcoming
•Rising Costs, Project Delays Reduced Appetite for EU Oil Shares (Bloomberg E&P Industry Primer)
•BG’s Egypt Diversions, Higher Costs Overshadow Brazil Growth
•Q2/14 Results In Line; Colombian Exploration Program Provides Steady Stream Of Catalysts
•GTE's quiet summer coming to a close; catalysts set for 4Q14
•THOMSON REUTERS STREETEVENTS EDITED TRANSCRIPT GTE -Q2 2014 Gran Tierra Energy IncEarnings Call
•Exploration Program Coming Up In H2/14
•OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2013
•Company’s Annual Reports
Authors:
Marissa Goodbody
Seth Barnet
Forbes
HasmirAbdula
Jim Brewer
Articles:
•Weak On High Volume: Gran Tierra Energy (GTE)
•Gran Tierra Energy Sees Large Increase in Short Interest (GTE)
•Relative Strength Alert For Gran Tierra Energy (GTE)
•Gran Tierra Energy Given Consensus Rating of “Buy” by Analysts (NYSE:GTE)
•Short Interest in Gran Tierra Energy Decreases By 18.8% (GTE)
(Sources cited and additional reading material)
Analytic Services:
Bloomberg
Thomson One
Capital IQ
Back to Table of Contents
19. Appendix Table of Contents
19
Click a box below to reach the slide
WACC/Cap Table
Precedent Comps
Precedent M&A List
Colombia Properties
Argentina Properties
Brazil Properties
Comps Calculations
Broker Analysis
Rolling Ratios
Institutional Ownership
Implied Valuation
20. Appendix
20
Multiples Implied Valuation
Low High Metric Low High
Public Company Comparables:
LTM EV / Revenue 5.1 x 5.4 x $ 654 $ 13.77 $ 14.48
FY1 EV / Revenue 4.6 x 4.8 x $ 700 13.04 13.47
LTM EV / EBITDA 10.5 x 11.5 x $ 466 19.06 20.69
FY1 EV / EBITDA 6.6 x 6.6 x $ 503 13.27 13.40
LTM P / E 25.1 x 27.0 x $ 77 8.29 8.83
FY1 P / E 18.1 x 18.8 x $ 170 12.49 12.88
NAVPS and Book Value Multiples
P / BV 2.9 x 3.2 x $ 1,826 20.31 22.64
P / Tangible BV 2.1 x 2.2 x $ 1,826 15.20 15.74
NAVPS 6.64 10.80
DCF Valuation
DCF Multiples Method (9-13%, 3.0-7.0 x) 7.80 11.29
DCF Gordon Growth (9-13%, 1-5% Growth) 6.95 7.25
Precedent Transaction Analysis
EV / EBIT 24.1 x 30.1 x $68 7.80 11.29
EV / EBITDA 11.35 13.33 $ 466 6.95 7.25
Balance Sheet Adj. 347.00
Shares Outstanding 275.00
Implied Valuation
21. Appendix
21
WACC Analysis and Capitalization Table
Capitalization Table
Consolidated Market Cap 1,321
- Cash and Short Term 347
+ Short Term Debt -
+ Long Term Debt -
+ Preferred Stock -
+ Minority Interest -
= Enterprise Value 974
Go Back to
Appendix Overview
WACC Analysis
($ in millions, except per share data)
Discount Rate Calculation - Assumptions
Risk-Free Rate: 2.4%
Equity Risk Premium: 7.0%
Interest Rate on Debt: 0.0%
Comparable Companies - Unlevered Beta Calculation
Levered Equi ty Unlevered
Name Beta Debt Value Tax Rate Beta
CLAYTON WILLIAMS ENERGY, INC. 2.56 $ 632 $ 889 36.0% 1.76
APACHE CORPORATION 1.43 9,675 28,995 45.7% 1.21
CARRIZO OIL & GAS, INC. 2.00 1,022 2,223 35.0% 1.54
LAREDO PETROLEUM, INC 1.95 1,501 2,720 39.0% 1.46
PEYTO EXP/DEV CORP 0.40 825 4,723 35.0% 0.36
BREITBURN ENERGY PARTNERS L.P. 0.3 1812 2,274 35.0% 0.20
Median 1.69 1.33
Gran Tierra Energy Inc 1.17
Gran Tierra - Levered Beta & WACC Calculation
Unlevered Equi ty Levered
Beta Debt Value Tax Rate Beta
Gran Tierra Energy Inc 1.33 $ - $ 1,395 35% $ 1.33
Cost of Equity Based on Comparables: 11.8%
Cost of Equity Based on Historical Beta: 10.6%
WACC 11.8%
WACC = Cost of Equity * % Equity + Cost of Debt * % Debt *
(1 - Tax Rate) + Cost of Preferred Stock * % Preferred Stock
22. Appendix
22
Precedent Transaction Analysis: Deal Breakdown and Multiples
Deal Attribute
Target Multiples # Deals Min - Max Median Min Max Average
Net Income 5 7.33 - 88.03 58.7 x 7.3 x 88.0 x 47.7 x
Free Cashflow 4 8.98 - 77.72 53.3 x 9.0 x 77.7 x 43.4 x
Income B/F XO 5 7.33 - 79.05 52.4 x 7.3 x 79.1 x 43.2 x
Net Income + Deprec 5 2.67 - 88.03 32.7 x 2.7 x 88.0 x 45.4 x
EBIT 5 3.95 - 56.33 24.1 x 4.0 x 56.3 x 30.1 x
EBITDA 5 2.15 - 24.51 11.4 x 2.2 x 24.5 x 13.3 x
Cashflow from Ops. 5 2.46 - 33.56 8.5 x 2.5 x 33.6 x 18.0 x
Revenue 6 1.23 - 193.53 8.0 x 1.2 x 193.5 x 97.4 x
Book Value 6 .94 - 68.45 6.0 x 0.9 x 68.5 x 34.7 x
Stockholder Eqty 6 .94 - 68.45 6.0 x 0.9 x 68.5 x 34.7 x
Market Cap 3 1.06 - 3.14 2.8 x 1.1 x 3.1 x 2.1 x
Total Assets 6 .58 - 21.60 1.8 x 0.6 x 21.6 x 11.1 x
Enterprise Value 3 1.25 - 2.02 1.3 x 1.3 x 2.0 x 1.6 x
Premiums Paid # Deals Volume Percent
50.01-75% 1 1.34B 8% 8%
25.01-50% 2 2.32B 13%
Go Back to
Appendix Overview
23. Appendix
23
Precedent Transaction Analysis: Listed Deal Transactions
Deal
Type
Announce
Date Target Name Acquirer Name Seller Name
Announced Total
Value (mil.)
Payment
Type TV/EBITDA Deal Status
M&A 11/13/2013 Petrobras Energia Peru SA China National Petroleum Corp Petroleo Brasileiro SA 2600 Cash Completed
M&A 4/30/2014 Heritage Oil PLC Al Mirqab Capital SPC 1883.74 Cash 11.35 Completed
M&A 8/19/2013 BC-10 block/Brazil Sinochem International Corp Petroleo Brasileiro SA 1540 Cash Terminated
INV 6/14/2013 Petrobras Oil & Gas BV
Grupo BTG Pactual,Helios Investment Partners LLP (Fund: Helios
Investors II LP) Petroleo Brasileiro SA 1525 Cash Completed
M&A 9/29/2013 Petrominerales Ltd Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp 1335.01 Cash 2.67 Completed
M&A 11/22/2013 Northern Blizzard Resources Inc Potential Buyer
Riverstone Holdings LLC,NGP
Energy Capital Management LLC 1000 Cash Withdrawn
M&A 2/12/2014 Argentinian business YPF SA Apache Corp 852 Cash Completed
M&A 5/7/2013 Blocks BM-C-39 & BM-C-40 Petroliam Nasional Bhd Oleo e Gas Participacoes SA 850 Cash Terminated
INV 3/24/2014 Transportadora de Gas del Peru SA Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
Tecpetrol SA,Tecpetrol
International SA,Tecpetrol
Internacional SLU 607 Cash 24.51 Completed
M&A 8/16/2013 Trinidad and Tobago Holdings LLC National Gas Co of Trinidad & Tobago Ltd ConocoPhillips 600 Cash Completed
INV 12/9/2013 Oleoducto Central SA
AFP Proteccion SA,Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores,Advent
International Corp (Fund: Advent International GPE VII LP) Talisman Energy Inc 595 Cash Completed
M&A 10/14/2013 BC-10 block/Brazil Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd Petroleo Brasileiro SA 529 Cash Completed
INV 9/18/2014 Sierra Oil & Gas S de RL de CV
Infraestructura Institucional Srl,Riverstone Holdings LLC (Fund:
Riverstone Global Energy & Power Fund V LP)… 525 Cash Completed
M&A 11/19/2012 C&C Energia Ltd Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp 440.85
Cash and
Stock 2.15 Completed
M&A 11/26/2013 OFD Holding Inc Yara International ASA Omimex Resources Inc 377 Cash Completed
INV 10/31/2013 OAS Oleo e Gas FI-FGTS 357.85 Cash Completed
INV 8/20/2013
Primax Comercial Del Ecuador
SA,Manu Peru Holding SA,Atimasa SA Romero Trading SA Empresa Nacional del Petroleo 308.5 Cash Completed
M&A 3/25/2013 Occidental Quimica do Brasil Ltda Unipar Carbocloro SA Occidental Petroleum Corp 300.4 Cash Completed
M&A 12/16/2013 Harvest Vinccler Dutch Holding BV Pluspetrol Resources Corp NV,Petroandina Resources Corp NV Harvest Natural Resources Inc 275 Undisclosed Completed
M&A 11/26/2012 Block BS-4/Santos Basin Oleo e Gas Participacoes SA Petroleo Brasileiro SA 270 Cash Completed
M&A 5/13/2014 Verano Energy Ltd Parex Resources Inc 260.94
Cash and
Stock Completed
INV 11/20/2013 Transportadora de Gas del Peru SA Grana y Montero SAA Pluspetrol SA 237 Cash 18.2 Completed
Go Back to
Appendix Overview
27. Appendix
27
Comparable Companies - Exploration Oil and Gas Companies, with Market Caps Above 800M
($ in Millions Except Per Share and Per Unit Data)
Operat ing Stat i s t i cs Capi tal i zat ion Projected Projected
Equi ty Enterpri se Revenue EBITDA Reported Net Income Revenue EBITDA EBITDA Margin
Company Name Value Value LTM F Y1 LTM F Y1 LTM F Y1 Growth Growth LTM F Y1
CLAYTON WILLIAMS ENERGY $ 889 $ 1,486 $ 486 $ 466 $ 292 $ 307 $ 55 $ 42 83.8% 103.7% 60.2% 65.9%
APACHE CORPORATION 28,995 39,505 15,347 14,255 10,239 10,052 15 2,431 21.1% (22.7%) 66.7% 70.5%
CARRIZO OIL & GAS 2,223 3,236 625 710 273 544 (11) 122 144.5% (17.5%) 43.7% 76.6%
LAREDO PETROLEUM 2,720 3,821 681 759 418 533 62 130 50.7% (1.8%) 61.5% 70.2%
PEYTO EXP & DEV CORP 4,723 5,558 620 821 515 638 181 254 35.8% 38.6% 83.0% 77.7%
BREITBURN ENERGY 2,274 4,268 838 780 167 463 (198) (54) 31.9% (16.2%) 19.9% 59.4%
Median $ 2,497 $ 4,044 $ 653 $ 769 $ 355 $ 538 $ 35 $ 126 43.2% (9.0%) 60.8% 70.3%
Mean $ 6,971 $ 3,382 $ 621 $ 722 $ 278 $ 481 $ (5) $ 62 32.9% (17.2%) 47.8% 67.0%
Gran Tierra Energy Inc $ 1,395 $ 1,047 $ 654 $ 700 $ 466 $ 503 $ 77 $ 170 37.0% (5.5%) 71.4% 71.9%
Go Back to
Appendix Overview
28. Appendix
28
Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date
HSBC LUIZ CARVALHO overweight 7.94 20-Nov-14
JPMorgan FELIPE DOS SANTOS overweight 10.23 13-Nov-14
RBC Capital Markets NATHAN PIPER outperform 11.00 10-Nov-14
Canaccord Genuity Corp CHRISTOPHER BROWN buy 9.50 10-Nov-14
Morningstar, Inc JASON STEVENS buy 10-Nov-14
Cormark Securities Inc. GARETT URSU buy 9.00 7-Nov-14
FirstEnergy Capital Corp DARREN B ENGELS outperform 9.00 7-Nov-14
TD Securities JAMIE SOMERVILLE buy 10.00 7-Nov-14
Mackie Research Capital Corp. BILL NEWMAN buy 8.75 7-Nov-14
Credit Suisse DAVID PHUNG outperform 8.58 6-Nov-14
Peters & Co Ltd DAN GRAGER sector outperform 7.50 6-Nov-14
Scotia Capital GAVIN WYLIE sector outperform 11.00 6-Nov-14
Paradigm Capital Inc IAN W MACQUEEN buy 9.25 6-Nov-14
GMP DAVID BEDDIS buy 10.75 6-Nov-14
Edgecrest Capital VICTOR VALLANCE buy 7.00 6-Nov-14
Goldman Sachs SERGIO CONTI neutral/neutral 7.50 26-Oct-14
ITG Investment Research IAN NIEBOER no rating system 8-Jul-14
EVA Dimensions NEIL FONSECA buy 28-Apr-14
Morningstar, Inc DAVID MCCOLL hold 10.00 8-Apr-14
Jennings Capital JAMES HUMEN Under Review 31-Jan-14
Tudor Pickering & Co MATTHEW PORTILLO hold 11.15 29-Jan-14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
HSBC
JPMorgan
RBC Capital
Markets
Canaccord Genuity
Corp
Morningstar, Inc
Cormark Securities
Inc.
FirstEnergy Capital
Corp
TD Securities
Mackie Research
Capital Corp.
Credit Suisse
Peters & Co Ltd
Scotia Capital
Paradigm Capital
Inc
GMP
Edgecrest Capital
Goldman Sachs
ITG Investment
Research
EVA Dimensions
Morningstar, Inc
Jennings Capital
Tudor Pickering &
Co
Brokers' Target Price
Analyst/Broker Ratings and Target Prices
Go Back to
Appendix Overview
29. Appendix
29
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Price Earnings Ratio (Rolling FY1, FY2, FY3)
P/E FY1
P/E FY2
P/E FY3
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
EV EBITDA Ratio (Rolling FY1, FY2, FY3)
EV/EBITDA FY1
EV/EBITDA FY2
EV/EBITDA FY3
Rolling Ratios P / E and EV / EBITDA
Go Back to Appendix Overview
30. Appendix
30
Institutional Ownership Breakdown
Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value
% of
Ownership Report Date Source Country
FMR LLC 19,572,002 -3,980,589 100,600,090 7.09% 9/30/2014 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES
MASSACHUSETTS FINANC 15,572,380 5,841,019 80,042,033 5.64% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES
WASATCH ADVISORS INC 13,257,723 1,359,621 68,144,696 4.80% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES
AMBER CAPITAL LP 9,035,358 -1,203,009 46,441,740 3.27% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 8,473,686 66,514 43,554,746 3.07% 9/30/2014 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES
CANADA PENSION PLAN 8,408,300 -1,573,302 43,218,662 3.05% 9/30/2014 13F CANADA
GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OT 5,373,162 625,962 27,618,053 1.95% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES
INVESCO LTD 4,883,043 68,103 25,098,841 1.77% 9/30/2014 ULT-AGG CANADA
BCIMC INVESTMENT MAN 4,801,338 0 24,678,877 1.74% 3/31/2014 CAN-PE CANADA
FRANKLIN RESOURCES 4,491,102 440,401 23,084,264 1.63% 9/30/2014 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES
INGALLS & SNYDER 4,489,453 127,000 23,075,788 1.63% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES
IG INVESTMENT MANAGE 4,451,039 -312,930 22,878,340 1.61% 9/30/2014 13F CANADA
CARMIGNAC GESTION 4,327,000 0 22,240,780 1.57% 9/30/2014 MF-AGG FRANCE
THORNBURG INVESTMENT 4,072,673 0 20,933,539 1.48% 6/30/2014 MF-USA UNITED STATES
SCHRODER INVESTMENT 3,711,312 -1,534,457 19,076,144 1.34% 9/30/2014 13F BRITAIN
LIBRA ADVISORS LLC 3,505,880 2,544,200 18,020,223 1.27% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES
NUMERIC INVESTORS LL 3,411,726 571,600 17,536,272 1.24% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES
GRANDEUR PEAK GLOBAL 3,078,350 390,225 15,822,719 1.12% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES
VANGUARD GROUP INC 3,034,285 233,557 15,596,225 1.10% 9/30/2014 13F UNITED STATES
TORONTO-DOMINION BAN 2,864,691 -52,072 14,724,512 1.04% 9/30/2014 ULT-AGG CANADA
Go Back to
Appendix Overview