Robert Triest, vice president and director of the New England Public Policy Center, discusses the economies of the New England states

1. Regional Economic Update
Robert K. Triest
Vice President and Director,
New England Public Policy Center
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
robert.triest@bos.frb.org
Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
April 8, 2016
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not
necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or
the Federal Reserve System.

2. Federal Reserve Districts
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 2/ 14

3. New England Public Policy Center - Boston Fed
Research & Data
Conferences and Events
Data
Economists
National Economy and
Monetary Policy
Papers and Publications
Recruiting
Regional Economy
Research Units
Can Subsidized Housing Help
Address Homelessness in New
England?
by Robert Clifford and Osborne Jackson
Achieving Greater Fiscal
Stability: Guidance for the
New England States
by Yolanda K. Kodrzycki and Bo
Zhao
State Highway Funding in
New England: The Road to
Greater Fiscal
Sustainability
by Jennifer Weiner
Measuring Municipal
Fiscal Disparities in
Connecticut
by Bo Zhao and Jennifer Weiner
Research Focus
State and Local Fiscal Sustainability
Labor Market Supply and Demand in New
England
Immigration
Local Aid Reform
Housing Issues
News, Events, and Opportunities
March 1, 2016
New England Economic Update
Presented to the New England Advisory
Council
February 19, 2016
How Large Should State Rainy Day Funds
Be? The Case of Atlantic States
Presented at the Fiscal Leaders Meeting
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4. Establishment employment growth in New England and
the U.S.
.9.9511.05
Pre-recessionpeak=1
2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1
date
U.S. CT MA ME
NH RI VT
Seasonally adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 4/ 14

5. Civilian Unemployment rate (U-3) in New England and the
U.S.
.4.6.811.21.4
Pre-recessionpeak=1
2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1
date
U.S. CT MA ME
NH RI VT
Seasonally adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Household Survey and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 5/ 14

6. Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits
.511.522.5
Jan2005=1
2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1
date
U.S. CT MA ME
NH RI VT
12-month trailing moving average
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 6/ 14

7. U-6 unemployment rate
5101520
2003q3 2006q3 2009q3 2012q3 2015q3
date
U.S CT MA ME
NH RI VT
12-month trailing moving average
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Household Survey and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 7/ 14

8. New England and U.S. employment growth by supersector
Construction
Education and Health Services
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
Goverment
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Prof. and Business Services
Other Services
Trade, Transp., and Utilities
Seasonally adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey and Haver Analytics
Industry employment growth, thousands of jobs
Feb '08-Feb '10 Feb '10-Feb '16
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 8/ 14

9. FHFA house price index
50100150200250
1995=100
1985q1 1990q1 1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1
date
U.S. CT MA ME
NH RI VT
Seasonally adjusted
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 9/ 14

10. State general revenues
.8.911.11.2
Pre-recessionpeak=1
2005m1 2010m1 2015m1
date
CT MA ME
NH RI VT
12-month moving average
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston New England Economic Indicators
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 10/ 14

11. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets 8
times per year.
Janet Yellen
Eric Rosengren Esther George Daniel Tarullo Jerome Powell
Lael Brainard James Bullard Stanley Fischer William Dudley Loretta Mester
FOMC Alternate Members:
Charles Evans Michael Strine Patrick Harker Robert Kaplan Neel Kashkari
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 11/ 14

12. Summary of Economic Projections: (March 2016)
Percentage Change in Real GDP
Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2016–18 and over the longer run
Change in real GDP
Percent
1
2
3
4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longer
run
Central tendency of projections
Range of projections
Median of projections
Actual
Unemployment rate
Percent
4
5
6
7
8
9
Source:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160316.pdf
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 12/ 14

13. Summary of Economic Projections: (March 2016)
Unemployment Rate
1
2
3
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longer
run
Range of projections
Actual
Unemployment rate
Percent
4
5
6
7
8
9
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longer
run
PCE inflation
Percent
1
2
3
Source:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160316.pdf
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 13/ 14

14. Summary of Economic Projections: (March 2016) Personal
Consumption Expenditure Inflation Rate
4
5
6
7
8
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longer
run
PCE inflation
Percent
1
2
3
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longer
run
Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to the projections table. The data for the actual values of
the variables are annual.
Source:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160316.pdf
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 14/ 14