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Regional Economic Update
Robert K. Triest
Vice President and Director,
New England Public Policy Center
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
robert.triest@bos.frb.org
Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
December 2, 2016
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not
necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or
the Federal Reserve System.
Federal Reserve Districts
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 2/ 15
Employment growth in New England and the U.S.
.9.9511.051.1
Pre-recessionpeak=1
2000m1 2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1
US CT ME MA
NH RI VT
Seasonally adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 4/ 15
Unemployment rates (U-3)
24681012
percent
2000m1 2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1
US CT ME MA
NH RI VT
Seasonally adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Household Survey and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 5/ 15
Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits
.511.522.5
Jan2005=1
2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1
US CT ME MA
NH RI VT
12-month moving average
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 6/ 15
U-6 labor underutilization rate
5101520
percent
2004q1 2007q1 2010q1 2013q1 2016q1
US CT ME MA
NH RI VT
12-month moving average
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 7/ 15
New England and U.S. employment growth by supersector
Construction
Education and Health Services
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
Goverment
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Prof. and Business Services
Other Services
Trade, Transp., and Utilities
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey and Haver Analytics
Industry employment growth, thousands of jobs
October '07-October '09 October '09-October '16
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 8/ 15
FHFA house price index
50100150200250
1995=100
1985q1 1990q1 1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1
US CT ME MA
NH RI VT
Seasonally adjusted
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 9/ 15
State general revenues
.8.911.11.2
Pre-recessionpeak=1
2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1
CT ME MA
NH RI VT
12-month moving average
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston New England Economic Indicators
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 10/ 15
The Federal Open Market Committee meets 8 times yearly
Janet Yellen
Eric Rosengren Esther George Daniel Tarullo Jerome Powell
Lael Brainard James Bullard Stanley Fischer William Dudley Loretta Mester
FOMC Alternate Members:
Charles Evans Michael Strine Patrick Harker Robert Kaplan Neel Kashkari
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 11/ 15
SEP: (September 2016) Growth in Real GDP
For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, September 21, 2016
Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2016–19 and over the longer run
Percent
Change in real GDP
Central tendency of projections
Range of projections
Median of projections
Actual
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer

run

Unemployment rate
3

2

1

Percent

9

8

7

6

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160921.pdf
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 12/ 15
SEP: (September 2016) Unemployment RateActual
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer

run

Unemployment rate
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer

run

1

Percent

9

8

7

6

5

4

Percent
PCE inflation
3

2

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160921.pdf
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 13/ 15
SEP: (September 2016) PCE Inflation Rate
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer

run

5

4

Percent
PCE inflation
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer

run

3

2

1

Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to the projections table. The data for the
actual values of the variables are annual.
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160921.pdf
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 14/ 15
SEP: (September 2016) Timing of Policy Firming
For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, September 21, 2016
Figure 2. FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for
the federal funds rate
Percent
2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160921.pdf
Note: each dot represents the judgement of one FOMC participant of the midpoint of the appropriate target range
for the Federal Funds Rate at the end of the calendar year.
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 15/ 15

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Regional Economic Update

  • 1. Regional Economic Update Robert K. Triest Vice President and Director, New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston robert.triest@bos.frb.org Lincoln Institute of Land Policy December 2, 2016 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System.
  • 2. Federal Reserve Districts R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 2/ 15
  • 3.
  • 4. Employment growth in New England and the U.S. .9.9511.051.1 Pre-recessionpeak=1 2000m1 2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1 US CT ME MA NH RI VT Seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey and Haver Analytics R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 4/ 15
  • 5. Unemployment rates (U-3) 24681012 percent 2000m1 2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1 US CT ME MA NH RI VT Seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Household Survey and Haver Analytics R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 5/ 15
  • 6. Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits .511.522.5 Jan2005=1 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1 US CT ME MA NH RI VT 12-month moving average Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor and Haver Analytics R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 6/ 15
  • 7. U-6 labor underutilization rate 5101520 percent 2004q1 2007q1 2010q1 2013q1 2016q1 US CT ME MA NH RI VT 12-month moving average Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Haver Analytics R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 7/ 15
  • 8. New England and U.S. employment growth by supersector Construction Education and Health Services Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Goverment Leisure and Hospitality Manufacturing Prof. and Business Services Other Services Trade, Transp., and Utilities Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey and Haver Analytics Industry employment growth, thousands of jobs October '07-October '09 October '09-October '16 R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 8/ 15
  • 9. FHFA house price index 50100150200250 1995=100 1985q1 1990q1 1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1 US CT ME MA NH RI VT Seasonally adjusted Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency and Haver Analytics R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 9/ 15
  • 10. State general revenues .8.911.11.2 Pre-recessionpeak=1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1 CT ME MA NH RI VT 12-month moving average Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston New England Economic Indicators R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 10/ 15
  • 11. The Federal Open Market Committee meets 8 times yearly Janet Yellen Eric Rosengren Esther George Daniel Tarullo Jerome Powell Lael Brainard James Bullard Stanley Fischer William Dudley Loretta Mester FOMC Alternate Members: Charles Evans Michael Strine Patrick Harker Robert Kaplan Neel Kashkari R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 11/ 15
  • 12. SEP: (September 2016) Growth in Real GDP For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, September 21, 2016 Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2016–19 and over the longer run Percent Change in real GDP Central tendency of projections Range of projections Median of projections Actual 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run Unemployment rate 3 2 1 Percent 9 8 7 6 Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160921.pdf R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 12/ 15
  • 13. SEP: (September 2016) Unemployment RateActual 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run Unemployment rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run 1 Percent 9 8 7 6 5 4 Percent PCE inflation 3 2 Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160921.pdf R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 13/ 15
  • 14. SEP: (September 2016) PCE Inflation Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run 5 4 Percent PCE inflation 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run 3 2 1 Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to the projections table. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160921.pdf R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 14/ 15
  • 15. SEP: (September 2016) Timing of Policy Firming For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, September 21, 2016 Figure 2. FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate Percent 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160921.pdf Note: each dot represents the judgement of one FOMC participant of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the Federal Funds Rate at the end of the calendar year. R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 15/ 15