Spring 2010 Housing Briefing
The Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook
by
John McClain, AICP, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy, George Mason University
7. Apex Home Loans March 3, 2011 The Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook John McClain, AICP, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University
8. Quarters After Trough % Change in GDP Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, (2009 Recession has 6 th Q added from GI Forecast)
20. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change from Recession Start (12/07) (000s) Washington -22,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
21. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Last 10 Years (000s) Washington 280,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
22. Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average
24. 000s Annual Job Change – MOTYC Washington MSA Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
25. Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
26. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Dec 09 – Dec 10 (000s) Washington + 57,500 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
27. Job Change by Sector Dec 2009 – Dec 2010 Washington MSA (000s) Total 57,500 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
28. Annual Job Change District of Columbia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
29. Annual Job Change Northern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
30. Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
31. 9.2 – DC 9.1 – U.S. 6.0 – SMD 5.7 – MSA 4.7 - NVA Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
32. 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate November 2010 % US 9.1 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted 5.7
33. Wages & Salaries Procurement Federal Spending By Type 1984 - 2009 $ Billions
34.
35. Federal Employment Washington Metro Area 000s Eisenhower Kennedy – Johnson Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush 2 - 22 + 80 + 36 + 18 - 6 + 4 - 42 + 23 Obama +28
39. Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through January 2011 12-Month Moving Average
40. Median House Sales Price Washington MSA Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5.0%/Year
41. Average Sales Price Annual Percent Change Washington MSA All Existing Homes % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
42. Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-the-Year-Change 2000 – 2010, MSA Jan-May, 2006 >100 % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis % Jan = -17.3%
43. Total Active Listings Per Sale January Each Year – Metro Area Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
44. Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010
45. Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010
46. Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010
47. Average Sales Price Percent Change District of Columbia All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010
48. Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area – Single Family Detached % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010 2011 Nov %: DC = -7, SM = +5, NV = +1
49. Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area – Single Family Attached % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010 2011 Nov %: DC = +16, SM = -.2, NV = +2
50. Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area – Condos % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010 2011 Nov %: DC = -9, SM = -21, NV = -5
Open with this and then go into bullet points – We are local, we re in the community. We contribute, we give back., we care about greater washington, we care about you, and we want to succeed together. We want to do well by doing good. Whether it’s helping to shape regional policy through our involvement in the Greater Washington Board of Trade, Local Chambers of Commerce, Community Organizations, or serving on local non profit boards, your friends at Apex Home Loans are making a different LOCALLY. We are a DIRECT LENDER (caveat right now on fixed to 729750, arms by 4/1, and fha soon)
You may not know our name, but we have been around for a long time. Our loan officers are well supported with a 1:1 staff ratio and many carry the industry designations that are not easy to achieve. We are consistently called on by local and national media to provide expertise of mortgage topics and our blog is one of the highest rated in the industry. Bottom line, our industry expertise helps us serve your homebuyer clients better and insure they get the right mortgage and the service they deserve every time.
Why is being Independent important? Being independent allows us to provide the wide array of loan product you might find with a mortgage broker, but still bring to you the benefits of the financial backing you would find at a larger retail bank, all while maintaining control over the loan process. Independence means decisions are made by management and owners that are on site and understand the importance of your buyers closing on time……everytime.
John McClain is the Deputy Director of the Center for Regional Analysis and George Mason University. He has over 25 years of experience analyzing the Washington region. For fifteen years he was at the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments where he directed the planning and policy programs and economic and demographic forecasting programs for the Washington region. He helped establish and for several years directed the Cooperative Forecasting Program, which provided official forecasts for metropolitan and local planning programs in the region. He was a senior executive at the Greater Washington Board of Trade, where he directed policy and research programs for the region's business community. Professor McClain also directed economic and real estate research for the Northeast region of the U.S. for a major international commercial real estate company. He received a BS in Civil Engineering from Duke University and a Masters of Regional Planning from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. This is the 3 rd year that John has presented this data to our partners and we are very happy to have him with us once again. Please join me in welcoming Professor John McClain.
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