Presented by Kindie Getnet at the Nile Basin Development Challenge (NBDC) Science Workshop–2013, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9 – 10 July 2013

1. Sustainable intensification of small-
scale agriculture in the upper Blue
Nile Basin:
Multi-criteria optimization of rainwater
management strategies
Kindie Getnet
International Water Management Institute (IWMI), East Africa & Nile Basin Office,
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Nile Basin Development Challenge (NBDC) Science
Workshop
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9–10 July 2013

2. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Introduction
A broad consensus on the importance of
rainwater management (RWM) to improve
system productivity and livelihood resilience
in rainfed agriculture
Choosing the appropriate RWM strategy can
be contentious
The need for ex-ante analysis and
evaluation to make informed decisions

3. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
The research question
What are the consequences of
alternative RWM strategies, compared to
the business as usual scenario?
Evaluation criteria (indicators)?
•Net farm income (economic benefit)
•Employment opportunities (social
benefit)
•Runoff and sediment (environmental

4. How is the analysis made?
A decision support
tool with multi-
criteria optimization
Sustainability
Interactions
(understanding spatial
and temporal trade-offs
and synergies)
ECOSAUT for
economic, social, and
environmental
Basic Data
Crop Crop Crop
1 9 17
2 10 18 Area(Ha)
3 11 19 7.9
4 12 Pastures 1 8.8
5 13 Pastures 2 3.9
6 14 Pastures 3 20.7
7 15 Forest1
8 16 Forest2
Period
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 1 2 3
1 2 3 1 2 1 2 3
1 crop 1 crop 8 crop 14 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1
2 crop 2 crop 9 crop 15 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1
3 crop 3 crop 10 crop 16 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1
4 crop 4 crop 11 crop 17 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1
5 crop 5 crop 12 crop 18 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1
6 crop 3 crop 13 crop 19 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1
7 crop 6 crop 8 crop 14 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1
8 crop 2 crop 9 crop 15 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1
9 crop 7 crop 9 crop 16 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1
10 crop 1 crop 12 crop 17 forest 1 forest 2 pasture1
(enter thenameof thecrop orland useof interest , e.g., potato, cereal, quinoa, tree,grass,alfalfa, etc)
Description Description
Zone1
Description
BWPPeTFBe WBeB STBeWBFPPe
WBBePT WTBeB NMTBPW Location
Available Land
Crops inRotation
WBPBeT WBT
BTBeWP BWTP WTBeSPeP
BPeTFPWBe WBeBT Grazing
TBBeWP TBPS Eucalyptus
Location in
watershed ->
BPTPeWBe NMSBFTPBe
Zone2
Total
Zone3
WBTBeP WNMBeT T1T4 (degraded forest/shrubland)
Rotation Trees Forages

5. What is evaluated?

6. Quantitative characterization of Meja micro-
watershed in the Upper Blue Nile
70 sample plots in
the HRU (upper,
middle, lower zone)
Geo-referenced
spatial and temporal
data on:
Production (crop,
livestock, forest, pasture)
Employment (labor use)
Runoff and sediment
• ECOSAUT populated
and preliminary

8. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Results (business as usual scenario)
Optimization made possible over the
entire HRU considered (20ha)
Model results mimic reality
Baseline scenario generates a net farm
income of US$404,790 over 10 years
(2011-2021)

10. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Agriculture will remain major source of farm
income and employment
Farm income positively trending but not
significantly drifting
• System productivity stagnant
• Given rapid population growth, declining
per capita farm income?
• Poverty reduction role of agriculture not
dependable?
Negative externalities associated with farm
income growth (soil erosion)
• Trade-off between farm income growth and
land resource
• Is the farming system sustainable?

12. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Next activities
How will a change in land use and
resource management practices change
farm income, poverty, and soil erosion?
– Develop land use and resource
management scenarios
– Assess consequences at HRU scale
– Extrapolate basin-wide impact

13. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Challenges
• Lack of crop-specific sediment and run off
data
• Need for concretized and quantified
scenarios and strategies
• How to extrapolate impacts to a basin scale