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Long-term scenarios for sustainable
and inclusive agriculture, food
security and nutrition:
Agricultural technologies, pro...
FAO forward looking exercise: FAT2080
2
• FAO is upgrading/updating long term projections for World Food and
Agriculture t...
Technological changes and resource use
3
• Technological changes in agriculture and the implied
changes in natural resourc...
Objectives of this internal workshop
This is the name of the 4
The aims of the workshop are to:
1. Share with you key ques...
Agenda
5
14.00 – 14.15. Building forward-looking scenarios for food
security and nutrition: the “business-as-Usual” scenar...
Methodological Approach
• “Back-casting”snapshots of alternative futures in
2080 and associated pathways
• Changes in clim...
Challenges
for food access
and
utilization
Challenges for food
availability and stability
FAT1
Overall
Sustainability
FAT2...
The Way to FAT 2080
Future develops according to socio-economic, technological and environmental
trends similar to historical patterns; the wo...
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, UN DESA; AT2050 uses the medium variant from the 2008 Revision
Worl...
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, UN DESA; AT2050 uses the medium variant from the 2008 Revision
Popu...
GDP Projections for FAT 2
GHG Emission Scenarios
Fuss et al., 2014
Timing is Critical
Stocker et al., 2013
Contours of peak CO2 -induced warming (as given by Eq. 3 in the Box)
as a function...
Questions on GHG Emissions
and mitigation in the agricultural sector
1. What are the costs associated with GHG mitigation ...
Sources of Growth in Crop Production
Source: Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012
Projecting Ag. Land Area Expansion
Project future uses of these lands for crop
production and animal feed
• Land allocatio...
Defining Future Land Constraints
• FAO’s Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ)
– Climate, agronomic, and bio-physical driver...
Land Suitability (GAEZ 3.0)
GAEZ suitability classes for crop production
(VS = very suitable, S= suitable, MS = moderately...
Land Cover
FAO GLCShare, 201430 arc seconds (~1km)
Land Suitability
Net balance of suitable land 1,446 million ha (current climate conditions)
Suitable areas under future co...
Land Degradation
Globally, 33% of farmland is moderately to highly degraded [TAC, 2016],
As a result of both, human induce...
Historical Land Area and harv Area
EAP: East Asia/Pacific
ECA: Eastern Europe/Central Asia
HIC: High Income Countries
LAC:...
AT 2050 Land Projections
AT 2050 projections: Harvested area increase from 1256 to 1380 in 2050
Irrigation Potential
• Potential for converting existing rainfed areas to
irrigated areas is limited by water availability...
Changing Future Water Resources
ISI-MIP Runoff data, routed
Irrigation Limits
• Water abstraction = crop water demand (GAEZ) /
efficiency
• Limit water abstraction to 20% of TWR
Irri...
Irrigated Areas
AT 2050 Projection: Moderate growth of 0.1% pa year
Questions on Land
• Into which land classes should we allow croplands and pasture lands to
expand, if needed (e.g. savanna...
Questions on Irrigation
• What are the observed trends in improvements in
irrigation efficiency? Can trends be estimated b...
Historical Yield Growth
TAC, 2016
Will Yield Gaps be Closed?
Potential yields from GAEZ
Historical yields
from FAOSTAT
Example: Maize yields
for selected co...
Yield Gaps
Attainable yields,
depending on
production system
Attainable yields
Theoretical yield
time
now Far future
Trend
Potential yield
Water-limited yield
AT 2050 Yield Projections
Increases in yield for different crop groups by world region, projected by AT 2050.
Note that th...
Climate Change Impacts on Yields
Uncertainties from CO2 Effects
Based on ISI-MIP data
Decreases in yield resulting from climate change are partly offset by...
Questions on Crop Productivity
• Most crop models and GAEZ do provide simulated yields under assumptions of CO2 fertilizat...
Changing Cropping Intensities
AT 2050 Projections:
• CI increase from 88 to 92 for all land
• 80 to 84 in rainfed systems
...
Questions on Intensification
• Higher cropping intensities may have implications for land
degradation, soil loss etc. How ...
Livestock and fish production
Background (1)
• Historical data and assumptions on future economic growth do
suggest that we may well see dietary changes...
Background (2)
• According to AT2050:
• Globally calories per capita from meat are expected to nearly
double between 2005/...
Relative changes in animal productivity
Source: AT2050
Relative changes in herd size
Source: AT2050
Questions related to livestock production
• Can limits for the future expansion of livestock herd size be defined by
count...
Fish demand and supply
• In AT2050 fish was not a separate commodity; in FAT2080 we are working
on representing the demand...
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Long-term scenarios for sustainable and inclusive agriculture, food security and nutrition: Agricultural technologies, production systems and natural resource use under climate change

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14 December 2016
Presentation by the Global Perspectives Studies Team for the Workshop on Long – term scenarios for sustainable and inclusive agriculture, food security and nutrition: Agricultural technologies, production systems and natural resource use under climate change”


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Long-term scenarios for sustainable and inclusive agriculture, food security and nutrition: Agricultural technologies, production systems and natural resource use under climate change

  1. 1. Long-term scenarios for sustainable and inclusive agriculture, food security and nutrition: Agricultural technologies, production systems and natural resource use under climate change Global Perspectives Studies Team FAO, Rome, Dec-14, 2016
  2. 2. FAO forward looking exercise: FAT2080 2 • FAO is upgrading/updating long term projections for World Food and Agriculture towards 2030-50-80 (FAT2080) • Economic, social, technical and demographic factors, together with climate change are key drivers of transformative processes in food and agriculture. • While in the previous exercises one single scenario was considered, alternative futures are now considered. • This is a corporate effort. The Global Perspectives Studies team is catalyzing in-house knowledge and information regarding different dimensions of food and agriculture. • The possible evolution of agricultural and food systems in the light of ongoing transformative processes is a key aspect.
  3. 3. Technological changes and resource use 3 • Technological changes in agriculture and the implied changes in natural resource use are at the core of scenario building and projections for food and agriculture. • The GPS team has identified some sets of questions related to the role of agriculture in climate change mitigation, the evolution of land and water availability, possible changes in crop yields, fish and livestock production. • This workshop is part of a collaborative corporate effort to find plausible and scenario-consistent answers to these questions.
  4. 4. Objectives of this internal workshop This is the name of the 4 The aims of the workshop are to: 1. Share with you key questions related to production systems and resource use that we have to address in designing this future scenario (and alternative ones); 2. Elicit some preliminary thoughts and discussion; and 3. Establish collaborative linkages with your units to address these questions.
  5. 5. Agenda 5 14.00 – 14.15. Building forward-looking scenarios for food security and nutrition: the “business-as-Usual” scenario (FAT2) 14.15 – 15.00. Land use, water and forests: current situation and prospects under climate change: setting the stage (15 min); key questions and discussion (30 min) 15.00 – 15.45. Crop production: setting the stage (15 min); key questions and discussion (30 min) 15.50 – 16.00. Coffee break 16.00 – 16.45. Livestock and fish production: setting the stage (15 min); key questions and discussion (30 min) 16.45 – 17.00. Concluding remarks and further steps
  6. 6. Methodological Approach • “Back-casting”snapshots of alternative futures in 2080 and associated pathways • Changes in climate, socio-economic, bio-physical, institutional, cultural, and policy conditions • Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – Assumptions about the future set of the society • Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
  7. 7. Challenges for food access and utilization Challenges for food availability and stability FAT1 Overall Sustainability FAT2 Business as Usual FAT3 Stratified Societies Climate change – GDP – Total Factor Productivity – Trade, .. Incomeinequality–Poverty-Empowerment–Opportunities,.. The FAT 2080 Challenge Space
  8. 8. The Way to FAT 2080
  9. 9. Future develops according to socio-economic, technological and environmental trends similar to historical patterns; the world continues to do things as “usual”: • Economic growth is medium and somehow uneven • Long-term cross-country convergence is doubtful • Population growth high, following a “medium” path on fertility and mortality • Diverse economic transformation, role of fiscal systems and social protection mechanisms • Technological progress in agriculture should take place but cross-country yield gap will still remain • Role of institutions (national, international) limited to solve conflicts and protracted crisis • Moderate challenges to food availability/stability and access/utilization FAT2: Business as Usual
  10. 10. Source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, UN DESA; AT2050 uses the medium variant from the 2008 Revision World Population Prospects
  11. 11. Source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, UN DESA; AT2050 uses the medium variant from the 2008 Revision Population by Region
  12. 12. GDP Projections for FAT 2
  13. 13. GHG Emission Scenarios Fuss et al., 2014
  14. 14. Timing is Critical Stocker et al., 2013 Contours of peak CO2 -induced warming (as given by Eq. 3 in the Box) as a function of the starting date of the GMS and the implemented reduction rate of emissions. The later the GMS starts, the higher the required emissions reduction rate is for a given peak warming
  15. 15. Questions on GHG Emissions and mitigation in the agricultural sector 1. What are the costs associated with GHG mitigation in agricultural production? Are cost estimates available depending on mitigation technology? Can costs be specified in terms of investment costs vs input and other costs? 2. What are the impacts of adaptation practices on productivity? 3. What are plausible assumptions regarding the reduction of food losses in production processes? 4. What trends in emission intensity can be assumed in the future by commodity? 5. How will mitigation affect productivity in the agricultural sector?
  16. 16. Sources of Growth in Crop Production Source: Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012
  17. 17. Projecting Ag. Land Area Expansion Project future uses of these lands for crop production and animal feed • Land allocation decisions will be largely driven by economic reasoning; most profitable crops will be first grown on the most suitable areas. • The profitability of a crop will depend on product and input prices as well as on yields • Upper boundaries defined by bio-physical constraints
  18. 18. Defining Future Land Constraints • FAO’s Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) – Climate, agronomic, and bio-physical drivers to estimate yield and land suitability globally at 5 arcmin resolution under present-day and future climate scenarios – For 46 crops under irrigated and rainfed conditions • FAO’s Global Land Cover Classification (GLC-Share 2014) – High resolution (30 arcseconds) from multiple sources – Current land cover types to mask out areas that cannot be used for agriculture (forest, built-up, mangroves, etc)
  19. 19. Land Suitability (GAEZ 3.0) GAEZ suitability classes for crop production (VS = very suitable, S= suitable, MS = moderately suitable, mS = marginally suitable, vmS= very marginally suitable, NS= not suitable)
  20. 20. Land Cover FAO GLCShare, 201430 arc seconds (~1km)
  21. 21. Land Suitability Net balance of suitable land 1,446 million ha (current climate conditions) Suitable areas under future conditions from GAEZ 4.0
  22. 22. Land Degradation Globally, 33% of farmland is moderately to highly degraded [TAC, 2016], As a result of both, human induced or natural processes
  23. 23. Historical Land Area and harv Area EAP: East Asia/Pacific ECA: Eastern Europe/Central Asia HIC: High Income Countries LAC: Latin America/Carribean MNA: Mediterranean/North Africa SAS: South Asia SAS: Sub-Saharan Africa
  24. 24. AT 2050 Land Projections AT 2050 projections: Harvested area increase from 1256 to 1380 in 2050
  25. 25. Irrigation Potential • Potential for converting existing rainfed areas to irrigated areas is limited by water availability (water stress index) • Water availability (TWR) in a country is the sum of inflowing water and internally generated runoff minus committed outflows (AQUASTAT method) • Inflowing water resources are calculated from pixel- based runoff from global hydrological models, driven with climate data from climate models and routed through a global river network – Ensemble mean values for each RCP
  26. 26. Changing Future Water Resources ISI-MIP Runoff data, routed
  27. 27. Irrigation Limits • Water abstraction = crop water demand (GAEZ) / efficiency • Limit water abstraction to 20% of TWR Irrigation efficiency as a function of GDP/cap and water stress (AQUSTAT)
  28. 28. Irrigated Areas AT 2050 Projection: Moderate growth of 0.1% pa year
  29. 29. Questions on Land • Into which land classes should we allow croplands and pasture lands to expand, if needed (e.g. savannas, grazing areas)? Converting non- agricultural land into agricultural entails costs. Do you have data on this? And do you anticipate changes in these costs (for example because technological progress will enable the conversion at lower costs?) • What are plausible pathways for land degradation in currently used cropland areas? • What is the percentage of protected forest areas on total forested areas? • Are there a systematic country- or region-specific patterns of land transformation? If yes, which are they?
  30. 30. Questions on Irrigation • What are the observed trends in improvements in irrigation efficiency? Can trends be estimated by looking at different time intervals in AQUASTAT? • Which improvement in irrigation efficiency can be expected in the future and where? • Is there a better proxy for investment potential to improve water efficiency than GDP per capita? • What is the typical cost per hectare of converting surface irrigation to sprinkler or sprinkler to drip irrigation? • Are there estimates of maintenance and replacement costs?
  31. 31. Historical Yield Growth TAC, 2016
  32. 32. Will Yield Gaps be Closed? Potential yields from GAEZ Historical yields from FAOSTAT Example: Maize yields for selected countries
  33. 33. Yield Gaps Attainable yields, depending on production system
  34. 34. Attainable yields Theoretical yield time now Far future Trend Potential yield Water-limited yield
  35. 35. AT 2050 Yield Projections Increases in yield for different crop groups by world region, projected by AT 2050. Note that these changes do not consider the effects of climate change or changing prices and do not bear a cost.
  36. 36. Climate Change Impacts on Yields
  37. 37. Uncertainties from CO2 Effects Based on ISI-MIP data Decreases in yield resulting from climate change are partly offset by CO2 fertilization effects Without CO2 fertilization effects With CO2 fertilization effects Example: Global maize production [t] by 2080 under alternative RCPs and GCMs, without area changes
  38. 38. Questions on Crop Productivity • Most crop models and GAEZ do provide simulated yields under assumptions of CO2 fertilization effects and with a constant CO2 concentration. CO2 fertilization generally increases yields and offsets some of the negative impacts of climate change on yields. Should yield projections with CO2 fertilization generally be used? However, CO2 fertilization may have negative impacts on nutritional properties. To what extent CO2 fertilization and related positive and negative impacts have to be considered in designing forward-looking scenarios? • Attainable yields for future climate conditions from GAEZ do not reflect technological improvements (e.g. breeding improvements). What trends in yield should be assumed to 2080 under a “business as usual” scenario (for example, are AT2050 assumptions applicable in FAT2) due to technological improvements? • Are these changes in yields, implying additional unit production costs (including externalities) (e.g., they depend on additional investment) ?. • Should we adjust future yield growth rates depending on how close we are to yield potential? • What is the theoretical yield (genetic potential) for each crop? • To what extent attempts to fill so called “Yield gaps” generate additional unit production costs. Does this require an upward pressure on prices? • Can we make assumptions about changes in nutritional quality of crops as a result of increased CO2 concentration?
  39. 39. Changing Cropping Intensities AT 2050 Projections: • CI increase from 88 to 92 for all land • 80 to 84 in rainfed systems • 127 to 132 in irrigated systems • Cropping intensities are the sum of all harvested areas by crop, divided by arable land • could be > 1 if multiple harvests are possible!
  40. 40. Questions on Intensification • Higher cropping intensities may have implications for land degradation, soil loss etc. How can limits for cropping intensity be defined to be used in FAT2 scenario? How will this impact yields? • Is there evidence suggesting that climate change may affect the duration of cropping seasons in specific regions? How cropping intensities would be affected?
  41. 41. Livestock and fish production
  42. 42. Background (1) • Historical data and assumptions on future economic growth do suggest that we may well see dietary changes in the future • Per capita calorie intake per source 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2030 2050 kcal/person/day High income countries Cereals FruitVegetable MeatMilkEggs Other 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2030 2050 kcal/person/day Low & middle income countries Cereals FruitVegetable MeatMilkEggs Other Source: FAOSTAT and AT2050
  43. 43. Background (2) • According to AT2050: • Globally calories per capita from meat are expected to nearly double between 2005/2007-2050; highest growth in Asia • Still this is a slowdown in meat consumption compared to historical data (previous decades) • Livestock production does not depend only on demand but also on: • Land availability • Productivity of pasture land • Transboundary diseases • Technological improvement • We are grateful to the GLEAM colleagues for helping us to represent livestock production systems; still its not trivial to build into an economic model elements from a biophysical exercise
  44. 44. Relative changes in animal productivity Source: AT2050
  45. 45. Relative changes in herd size Source: AT2050
  46. 46. Questions related to livestock production • Can limits for the future expansion of livestock herd size be defined by country? (Extensive vs. intensive production, etc.?) • What is the future carrying capacity under RCP 6.0 (livestock that can be fed by on unit of pasture area) by country? • What are plausible ranges of feed conversion ratios in the future, under RCP 6.0 (kg feed per kg meat)? • What are current water requirements for livestock and expected ones under RCP 6.0 (drinking and service water)? • Should expansion of pasture areas into other land covers be limited while designing FAT2? • Some assessments suggest that emissions could be reduced by 40% if all livestock farmers would adopt low emission practices. What are productivity effects of low-emission livestock production? • What are the expected productivity improvements (in terms of output per animal) which do not translate into additional unit production costs, in the future? Are they applicable also under RCP 6.0? How to the change due to “average” diseases under RCP 6.0?
  47. 47. Fish demand and supply • In AT2050 fish was not a separate commodity; in FAT2080 we are working on representing the demand of an aggregate fish (parameterization of demand system) • How can we represent fish supply? -> we are grateful to the Fishery department for sending us recently data on fish production (quantities of captures and aquaculture + unit values for aquaculture) • What can we plausibly assume about fish supply from captures and aquaculture in the long-run? • What should we assume about technological change and productivity (is there something analogous to crop yields?) • What are the production costs of fish supply and what are the key determinants? • How much of additional feed is coming from crops and livestock and at what price? (for livestock we know because of GLEAM) • How does climate change (RCP 6.0) affect fish supply and where? • What are mitigation and adaptation efforts in the fish sector? How can we accommodate this inside our scenarios?

14 December 2016 Presentation by the Global Perspectives Studies Team for the Workshop on Long – term scenarios for sustainable and inclusive agriculture, food security and nutrition: Agricultural technologies, production systems and natural resource use under climate change” © http://www.fao.org/

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