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Market Opportunity Day
Myanmar
Presentation by:
Volker Friedrich
FINPRO Partner for Malaysia
Helsinki, 9th May 2014
Welcome to the „Land of the Pagodas“
2
Myanmar is suddenly on every agenda – but is it a
new „Eldorado“ for business in Asia? Expectation
Management is the key
3
Myanmar faces 'very difficult reforms'
Associated
Press, 23.04.2013
„If you can find ways to invest in Myanmar, you will be very, very rich over the next 20, 30, 40 years!“
Jim Rogers,
21.02.2012
Asian Development Bank says
Myanmar economy poised for boom
Associated Press, 11.04.2013
Myanmar in the news
“You should never let your fears
prevent you from doing what
you know is right.”
Aung San Suu Kyi
Burmese National
League for Democracy
5
Myanmars „Lady“ is an icon already standing in line
with Nelson Mandela and Martin Luther King –
however locally she also faces criticism
6
Myanmar –
Facts and Figures
• Borders with China, Thailand
und India
• ca. 60 Mio people
• 85% Buddhist
• Per capita GDP of ca. 850
US$
• Strategic importance of East
West relations
• Rich in natural resources of oil
and gas, minerals, teak, gold
and others
• Reform process of unparalled
speed
• Member of ASEAN
1,500 US$ p.a.
Myanmars reforms are one of the biggest surprises in
recent history – welcomed and supported all around
the world
7
Myanmars needs time to fulfill all the (high) expectations
– disappointments are for sure for local and international
investors, shareholders and stakeholders alike
8
Due to decades of sanctions European and American
companies have to catch up now with the dominance of
China, India and Russia who have stayed in Myanmar
8.27
5.39
2.94
3.4
China
Hong Kong
Thailand
Others
In billion dollars
FDI (2011) – by countries
Quelle: GBP Analyse
Ol- and Gas is the most important
sector
9
The dramatic changes in Myanmar are unprecedented
and can only be compared to the changesin Eastern
Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall
10
International donor countries are now trying to help
Myanmar and diplomatics and business relationships
are set up – nothing happens over night though
, 11
The big question is whether the reforms are sustainable
and if an attracive environment for FDIs can be built
Challenges Opportunities
• Average productivity of workers
is 70pc lower than the average
in ASEAN
• Only 4 years of average
schooling
• Movement of 10 Mio people
from rural areas to the city
centers
• Requirement of up to 650 billion
US$ in foreign direct investment
(thereof 50pc in infrastructure
related projects)
• By 2030 the GDP of Myanmar
could reach 200 billion U$ (4 x
GDP of 2012)
• The consumer class could reach
ca. 20 Mio people spending 100
billion US$ p.a. (today around
35 billion over 2.5 Mio people)
• 10 Mio new job opportunities in
non-agricultural areas
• Reaching out to 500 Mio plus
consumers in neighboring
ASEAN markets
Source – OECD, World Bank, McKinsey, GBP INTERNATIONAL Analysis 2013
GDP should grow 8% p.a. – target at ca. 200 bn US$ by 2030
0 20 40 60 80
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Infrastructure
Eng. & Mining
Tourism
Financial Serv.
Telecom
2030
2010
Structure of the Myanmar Economy
Source – Data from OECD, World Bank, McKinsey, GBP INTERNATIONAL 2013
… but the potential is attractive if the necessary
institutional reforms continue and investment flows into
Myanmar will continue and increase over time
Welcome to Myanmar
13

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Myanmar by volker friedrich market opportunity day

  • 1. Market Opportunity Day Myanmar Presentation by: Volker Friedrich FINPRO Partner for Malaysia Helsinki, 9th May 2014
  • 2. Welcome to the „Land of the Pagodas“ 2
  • 3. Myanmar is suddenly on every agenda – but is it a new „Eldorado“ for business in Asia? Expectation Management is the key 3
  • 4. Myanmar faces 'very difficult reforms' Associated Press, 23.04.2013 „If you can find ways to invest in Myanmar, you will be very, very rich over the next 20, 30, 40 years!“ Jim Rogers, 21.02.2012 Asian Development Bank says Myanmar economy poised for boom Associated Press, 11.04.2013 Myanmar in the news
  • 5. “You should never let your fears prevent you from doing what you know is right.” Aung San Suu Kyi Burmese National League for Democracy 5 Myanmars „Lady“ is an icon already standing in line with Nelson Mandela and Martin Luther King – however locally she also faces criticism
  • 6. 6 Myanmar – Facts and Figures • Borders with China, Thailand und India • ca. 60 Mio people • 85% Buddhist • Per capita GDP of ca. 850 US$ • Strategic importance of East West relations • Rich in natural resources of oil and gas, minerals, teak, gold and others • Reform process of unparalled speed • Member of ASEAN 1,500 US$ p.a. Myanmars reforms are one of the biggest surprises in recent history – welcomed and supported all around the world
  • 7. 7 Myanmars needs time to fulfill all the (high) expectations – disappointments are for sure for local and international investors, shareholders and stakeholders alike
  • 8. 8 Due to decades of sanctions European and American companies have to catch up now with the dominance of China, India and Russia who have stayed in Myanmar 8.27 5.39 2.94 3.4 China Hong Kong Thailand Others In billion dollars FDI (2011) – by countries Quelle: GBP Analyse Ol- and Gas is the most important sector
  • 9. 9 The dramatic changes in Myanmar are unprecedented and can only be compared to the changesin Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall
  • 10. 10 International donor countries are now trying to help Myanmar and diplomatics and business relationships are set up – nothing happens over night though
  • 11. , 11 The big question is whether the reforms are sustainable and if an attracive environment for FDIs can be built Challenges Opportunities • Average productivity of workers is 70pc lower than the average in ASEAN • Only 4 years of average schooling • Movement of 10 Mio people from rural areas to the city centers • Requirement of up to 650 billion US$ in foreign direct investment (thereof 50pc in infrastructure related projects) • By 2030 the GDP of Myanmar could reach 200 billion U$ (4 x GDP of 2012) • The consumer class could reach ca. 20 Mio people spending 100 billion US$ p.a. (today around 35 billion over 2.5 Mio people) • 10 Mio new job opportunities in non-agricultural areas • Reaching out to 500 Mio plus consumers in neighboring ASEAN markets Source – OECD, World Bank, McKinsey, GBP INTERNATIONAL Analysis 2013
  • 12. GDP should grow 8% p.a. – target at ca. 200 bn US$ by 2030 0 20 40 60 80 Manufacturing Agriculture Infrastructure Eng. & Mining Tourism Financial Serv. Telecom 2030 2010 Structure of the Myanmar Economy Source – Data from OECD, World Bank, McKinsey, GBP INTERNATIONAL 2013 … but the potential is attractive if the necessary institutional reforms continue and investment flows into Myanmar will continue and increase over time