The document discusses a research project applying a multi-party risk and uncertainty management process to local water resources project management in Thailand. The research aims to develop a systematic risk management process and guidance for stakeholder consensus building. It provides background on issues with small-scale water projects in Thailand. The conceptual framework uses a multi-party risk assessment approach including stakeholder identification, risk analysis, and developing responses to improve project management. The research plan involves applying the risk management process and developing guidance based on field studies.
Klingbeil, R., 2012. Challenges to Water Resources Management in the Middle East. Presentation in the Water Resources Seminar, 17 January 2012, American University of Technology, Halat - Byblos, Lebanon.
During my research of water treatment methods, I applied cost-benefit analysis to compare and contrast the most popular and efficient water treatment and reclamation methods.
Klingbeil, R., 2012. Challenges to Water Resources Management in the Middle East. Presentation in the Water Resources Seminar, 17 January 2012, American University of Technology, Halat - Byblos, Lebanon.
During my research of water treatment methods, I applied cost-benefit analysis to compare and contrast the most popular and efficient water treatment and reclamation methods.
Brazilian Successful Experiences in Water Resource ManagementIwl Pcu
OBJECTIVE: To establish a national pact integrating multiple interests of use over water resources, promoting the goals of economic viability, social inclusion, environmental sustainability, and risk control during critical hydrological events.
A CMS based Geoportal targeted to manage information related to water resource management projects, powered with a full FOSS stack. A first application of the Geoportal is on the case study of Red Thai Binh River in Vietnam.
(IWRM). The presentation has the following flow:
1. The relevance of IWRM for a number of key development issues
2. The key characteristics of the concept
3. The global status of IWRM
4. Practical implementation – the challenges
5. Practical implementation – case studies showing successful
applications to problematic management scenarios
6. How IWRM programmes are being linked with the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs) and adaptation to climate change by the setting of achievement milestones
Presentation by Dr. Adrian Cashman of the Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies (CERMES) at the 5th High Level Session Ministerial Forum of the Global Water Partnership-Caribbean (GWP-C).
Integrated Water resource Management and adaptative strategies (Hedge funds...). The Galloway bay is using a similar technique.
1-Preparadness step:
Buoys help to monitor water elevations and informations are conveyed to water stations through remote sensor wireless communication (in link with a drone base)-Preparadness alert step (stand by and activation)
This is a real time flood mitigation and intervention. As the responsiveness of the detection is locally based in the river basin itself. The warehouse for the drone and the 2 oz pocket water purifers are located by the flood plain.
2-Operation and intervention:
The system is directed to people at risk of fresh water supply disruption during a flood. It allows the flood fighters (like firefighters but for flood zones) to operate a marshall drop of 2 oz Pocket water purifiers with non stopped flight drones for at least 3 days, the time people cannot refrain to drink contaminated water, thus the purifier help them to survive the crisis and facilitate the post recovery operation. Drones have self-navigation tools or can be manually directed by an operator from the ground.
3-Improvement from lessons learned
Probably, the product life cycle would tell, which is the best alternative to have the water purifiers at hand. For exampl, drones could be replaced by micro-light, or a a rider on a bicycle with a mobile phone, or a speed-boat.
Conclusion:
All these alternatives to water trucking are good and the only way to deliver safe water from contaminated water, because during a flood water trucking is disabled and water can only come from the drops of 2 Oz Pocket water purifiers from the sky.
GS RADJOU
Like to know more, email me at:
georges_radjou_wb@hotmail.com
Brazilian Successful Experiences in Water Resource ManagementIwl Pcu
OBJECTIVE: To establish a national pact integrating multiple interests of use over water resources, promoting the goals of economic viability, social inclusion, environmental sustainability, and risk control during critical hydrological events.
A CMS based Geoportal targeted to manage information related to water resource management projects, powered with a full FOSS stack. A first application of the Geoportal is on the case study of Red Thai Binh River in Vietnam.
(IWRM). The presentation has the following flow:
1. The relevance of IWRM for a number of key development issues
2. The key characteristics of the concept
3. The global status of IWRM
4. Practical implementation – the challenges
5. Practical implementation – case studies showing successful
applications to problematic management scenarios
6. How IWRM programmes are being linked with the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs) and adaptation to climate change by the setting of achievement milestones
Presentation by Dr. Adrian Cashman of the Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies (CERMES) at the 5th High Level Session Ministerial Forum of the Global Water Partnership-Caribbean (GWP-C).
Integrated Water resource Management and adaptative strategies (Hedge funds...). The Galloway bay is using a similar technique.
1-Preparadness step:
Buoys help to monitor water elevations and informations are conveyed to water stations through remote sensor wireless communication (in link with a drone base)-Preparadness alert step (stand by and activation)
This is a real time flood mitigation and intervention. As the responsiveness of the detection is locally based in the river basin itself. The warehouse for the drone and the 2 oz pocket water purifers are located by the flood plain.
2-Operation and intervention:
The system is directed to people at risk of fresh water supply disruption during a flood. It allows the flood fighters (like firefighters but for flood zones) to operate a marshall drop of 2 oz Pocket water purifiers with non stopped flight drones for at least 3 days, the time people cannot refrain to drink contaminated water, thus the purifier help them to survive the crisis and facilitate the post recovery operation. Drones have self-navigation tools or can be manually directed by an operator from the ground.
3-Improvement from lessons learned
Probably, the product life cycle would tell, which is the best alternative to have the water purifiers at hand. For exampl, drones could be replaced by micro-light, or a a rider on a bicycle with a mobile phone, or a speed-boat.
Conclusion:
All these alternatives to water trucking are good and the only way to deliver safe water from contaminated water, because during a flood water trucking is disabled and water can only come from the drops of 2 Oz Pocket water purifiers from the sky.
GS RADJOU
Like to know more, email me at:
georges_radjou_wb@hotmail.com
A summary of Cliff Consulting\'s way of helping clients reduce costs in their project portfolio, while increasing their chances of success in the most critical projects
This is a toolkit for course teams to use to improve student retention and engagement on their courses. It was developed by the HERE Project team (2012).
Portal GSTI
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Participe dos treinamentos de preparação para a certificação ITIL e COBIT via EAD. Solicite agora mesmo o material gratuito de amostra dos cursos e inicie seus estudos. fernando.palma@gmail.com
-----------------------------------------------------
http://www.portalgsti.com.br/Publicidade Portal GSTI
-----------------------------------------------------
Participe dos treinamentos de preparação para a certificação ITIL e COBIT via EAD. Solicite agora mesmo o material gratuito de amostra dos cursos e inicie seus estudos. fernando.palma@gmail.com
-----------------------------------------------------
http://www.portalgsti.com.br/Publicidade Portal GSTI
-----------------------------------------------------
Participe dos treinamentos de preparação para a certificação ITIL e COBIT via EAD. Solicite agora mesmo o material gratuito de amostra dos cursos e inicie seus estudos. fernando.palma@gmail.com
-----------------------------------------------------
http://www.portalgsti.com.br/
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multi-party risk management for water resources project
1. Application of Multi-Party Risk and
Uncertainty Management Process to local
water resources project management
Piriya Uraiwong
Professor Tsunemi Watanabe’s Laboratory
1 2012/2/14
2. • Small-scale water resources project failure
Background • Problem analysis
• Develop systematic multi-party risk management
Objectives process and project consensus building guidance
for small-scale water resources project
Conceptual • Multi-party risk and uncertainty management
• Mental model and risk management
Foundation
Research • Developing risk management process; stakeholder
identification, risk assessment, risk response
Progress
Research • Risk response mental model
• Field study in Thailand
Plan
2 2012/2/14
3. Background
Research objectives
Conceptual foundation
Progress and results
Research plan
3 2012/2/14
4. Background
Thailand water resources
Research
objectives
Conceptual
development
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Thailand's past three decades of
sustained and rapid economic
development stimulated an explosive
expansion of demand for water
services
Resulting in many small medium and
large-scale construction projects
http://www.google.com
/
4 2012/2/14
5. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Problem statement
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Malfunction of medium and small scale projects
Examples of ineffective small-scale water resources project in the Northeastern Thailand
5 2012/2/14
6. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Problem statement
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Good Condition Minor re-construction Rehabilitation
Re-construction Rejected
8% 5% 17%
27%
43%
Source: the Department of Water Resources Thailand, 2008
6 2012/2/14
7. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Problem analysis
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Policy and plan
Legal
framework
National level
Budget
Institutional
Management framework
problems
Stakeholder
participation
Management
Basin level
mechanism
Sense of
(Adapted from Sethaputra, 2001 and WWAP, 2006)
ownership
7 2012/2/14
8. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Problem analysis
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Failure Knowledge Database
Cause
Actions
Results
Dr.Yotarou hatamura, 2005
www.sozuku.com
8 2012/2/14
9. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Problem analysis
foundation
Progress and
ACTIONS
results
Research plan
Poor planning
RESULTS
Hardware
Economic loss
production
Social loss
Maintenance/
Change in
Repair
perception
Nonobservant of
Fracture/
instruction
Damage
Inaction
External
Ethics violation/
Damage
Rule violation
Self-protection (Based on Hatamura, 2005)
9 2012/2/14
10. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Problem analysis
CAUSES
foundation
Progress and
results
Insufficient ACTIONS
Research plan
knowledge Poor planning
Disregard of Hardware
procedure production
Narrow outlook Maintenance/
Repair
Inflexible
Nonobservant of
management instruction
structure Inaction
Poor staffs Ethics violation/
Poor authority Rule violation
structure Self-protection
Poor strategy/ (Based on Hatamura, 2005)
concept
10 2012/2/14
11. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Context of Problem
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Water resources projects were inadequately meet
stakeholder needs
Stakeholders may not communicate sufficiently and
effectively
Stakeholders are lack of risk awareness
No effective process in the decision-making activities
Problem is dynamic
11 2012/2/14
12. Background
Research objectives
Conceptual foundation
Progress and results
Research plan
12 2012/2/14
13. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Research questions
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
1. What are key aspects and limitations of
current participation in decision-making
process in small-scale water resources
project?
2. Can Multi-party Risk and Uncertainty
Management Process (MRUMP) be applied
as a tool to improve stakeholder participation
in decision making activities in small-scale
water resources management in Thailand?
13 2012/2/14
14. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Research hypothesis
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
“Implementation of Multi-party Risk and
Uncertainty Management Process
(MRUMP) as a tool for local communities
participation in decision-making activity
could decrease likelihood of small-scale
water resources project failure in Thailand”
14 2012/2/14
15. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Research objectives
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
1. Develop a systematic risk management
process for better small-scale water resources
project management
2. Develop a guidance for small-scale water
resources project consensus building through
multi-party risk and uncertainty management
process
15 2012/2/14
16. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Research framework
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Problem analysis
Conceptual phase
Develop multi-party risk
management process
Developed process
application
Data collection and Empirical phase
analyze
Guidance development
16 2012/2/14
17. Background
Research objectives
Conceptual foundation
Progress and results
Research plan
17 2012/2/14
18. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Conceptual foundation
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Water resources management in Thailand
Water resources risk management
Risk management process
Risk perception and risk communication
Mental model
18 2012/2/14
19. Background
Reviews on Thai water resources
Research
objectives
Conceptual
project participation
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Strong push to small-scale water resources project
from engineer approach (Hirch)
Lack of policy commitment to participation (MRCS)
Involvement of water users and stakeholders in
decision-making process is poor (Lien, 2003)
Participation process needs to begin with asking
what stakeholders need and designing the projects
according to it (WWWP, 2007: Bjorge et. al., 2011)
Agencies carry operation plans year to year with little
change and plans are subjected to change due to
intense political lobbying (Sethapura et.al., 2003)
19 2012/2/14
20. Background
Participation form in Thai water
Research
objectives
Conceptual
resources projects
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Participation
Committee/
Public Local
working Dialogue
hearing initiation
group
Lack Basin /Sub-
Passive ofbasin/ Ad-hoc
Support by
participation government
Project
consensus
building
No sense of Institutional Ban Pa Ping river Mae Chaem
ownership weakness Kong basin watershed
20 2012/2/14
21. Background
How to develop consensus building in
Research
objectives
Conceptual
small-scale water resources project?
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Need to understand how stakeholders perceive the
systems within which they live and function
Taking stakeholder mental model into account to
build a shared understanding between involved
stakeholders in the co-operative project
management
(Biggs et.al., 2008)
21 2012/2/14
22. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Mental Model and Decision Making foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
(Adapted from Kolkman, M. J., 2005)
Real world data flow
Mental model
Information flow
Problem evaluation
recognition Frame
Problem Implementatio
definition n
Solution Weighting
Alternative Alternative
space benefit & Choice
selection analysis
generation cost
22 2012/2/14
23. Background
Multi-Party Risk and Uncertainty
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Management Process
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Hierarchy structure of
Risk/uncertainty map risk and uncertainty
framework
MRUMP
Multi-party
Duration valuation
involvement
process
management process
(Pipattanawong and Watanabe, 2004)
23 2012/2/14
24. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Constraints of MRUMP
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
1. Lack of stakeholder analysis
2. The assessors’ bias
3. The duration valuation process (DVP) is not
applicable for local water resources project
management.
Suitable process is needed
24 2012/2/14
25. Background
Research objectives
Conceptual foundation
Progress and results
Research plan
25 2012/2/14
26. Background
Proposed Multi-party risk and
Research
objectives
Conceptual
uncertainty management process
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Monitor, Evaluation, Modification
Stakeholde Multi-party Multi-party Multi-party Implement
rs and risk risk risk
resources assessmen response consensus
identificatio t
n
Communication
26 2012/2/14
27. Background
Stakeholders and resources
Research
objectives
Conceptual
identification
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Input
Project information and status Tool and technique
Related stakeholders
Stakeholder and resource Output
identification
(Actor, Resource, Dynamic, Inter-
action, and Law) Project related stakeholder and
resource map
27 2012/2/14
28. Background
Stakeholder and resource map from
Research
objectives
Conceptual
ARDIL method
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Actor 1 Actor 4 Economic
dynamics
Social dynamic
Actor 2 Resource A/ Actor 5
project A
Social dynamic
Actor 3 Resource B/
project B Actor 6
Laws/ Policies
28 2012/2/14
29. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Multi-Party risk assessment
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Input
Tool and technique
Project related
Output
stakeholder and Hierarchical
resource map structure of HSRU map
Stakeholder risk risk
perception Risk register
Risk register matrix
Semi-
quantitative risk
analysis
29 2012/2/14
30. Background
Project life cycle risk breakdown
Research
objectives
Conceptual
structure
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Activity
Project Planning phase Management
risks
External
technology
Construction Management
phase
External
technology
Operation and Management
maintenance
External
phase
technology
(Hillson, 2002)
30 2012/2/14
31. Background
Hierarchy structure of risk
Research
objectives
Conceptual
and uncertainty
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Risk cause
Risk perception Risk effect event
event
Causes event
Cooperation
form land-owner Source of risk/uncertainty
Land acquisition Consequence form risk/uncertainty
Effect event
Site accessibility Activity Influenced risk/ uncertainty
Project situation Impact of risks/uncertainties
31 2012/2/14
32. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Risk register matrix
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Output from HSRU tailored to project ARDIL
Risk Risk Risk Risk effect Risk impact Related
# descriptio cause event stakeholders
n event
32 2012/2/14
33. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Semi-quantitative Risk assessment
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Useful in providing a structured way to rank risks
according to their probability and impact represented
by Probability-Impact (PI) matrix offers a visual
results of identified risk
Remark : max of Ii,j will need to be concerned , for example, change of law/ policy
(Hillson, 2003)
33 2012/2/14
34. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Probability scoring
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Ordinal scale: very low, low, medium, high, very high
Cardinal scale: 1, 2, 3 , 4, 5
Quantitative approach: 1% - 99%
Verbal description Category Level Probability
Occurs annually Very high 5 >0.1 , not 1
High probability of High 4 0.1-0.01
occurrence
Occasional Medium 3 0.01-0.001
occurrence
Possible Low 2 0.001-0.0001
phenomenon
Phenomenon has Very low 1 <0.0001, not 0
never been
34 observed 2012/2/14
35. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Impact scoring
foundation
Progress and
results
5 4 3 2 1
Research plan
Material >1000 M- 100 -1000 M- 100,000- 10,000 - <10,000
losses Euro Euro 1M-Euro 100,000 Euro
Euro
Human lives High loss of serious numerous Single small No injuries
lives injuries to lightly injuries at all
numerous injuries
Environment Ecological Ecosystem Damage to Only a Regeneratio
al breakdown seriously several single n in days
consequence disrupted species species
s affected
Societal Extensive Basic Local Difficulty in Almost no
losses evacuation infrastructure problems delivery to consequenc
s interrupted single es
households
35 2012/2/14
36. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Probability-Impact matrix
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
HSRU Pi,1 I-material I-human I-env I-socie ∑P*I Risk
ranking
36 2012/2/14
37. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Update risk register matrix
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
P-I
Output from HSRU ARDIL
matrix
Risk Risk Risk Risk Risk Related Risk
# descriptio cause effect impact stakeholder ranking
n event event s
Numerical
Result !!
37 2012/2/14
38. Background
Proposed Multi-party risk and
Research
objectives
Conceptual
uncertainty management process
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Monitor, Evaluation, Modification
Stakeholde Multi-party Multi-party Multi-party Implement
rs and risk risk risk
resources assessmen response consensus
identificatio t
n
RISK RANKING
Communication
38 2012/2/14
39. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Multi-Party risk response
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Socio-cultural Individual cognition of risks and risk behavior
Context
Risk Individual Risk
characteristics cognition attitude
Personal
advantage
s
Risk Risk Risk
perception acceptance behavior
(Baan and Kliin, 2004)
39 2012/2/14
40. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Risk response scenario
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
How to deal with different risk perception and risk
response among stakeholders?
Evaluate and
ranked risk
Reduce
Reduce
Accept consequenc Transfer Avoid
likelihood
e
To be developed
Stakeholder A Stakeholder B
40 2012/2/14
41. Background
Stakeholder risk response
Research
objectives
Conceptual
mental model
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
1st site visit: Project A 2nd site visit: Project B
Risk response
Evaluate Evaluate mental model
and ranked and ranked
risk input risk input
Semi-structure
Semi-structure interview
interview Validate/ improve
Elicit, construct Initial Risk
Risk response response
mental model mental model
41 2012/2/14
42. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Risk consensus
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Necessary to develop a risk communication
strategy that can obtain consensus among many
stakeholders
Consensus communication is risk communication to
inform and encourage groups to work together to
reach a decision about how the risk will be managed
(prevented or mitigated).
Risk
Multi-party risk Risk
communi-
response mental consensu
cation
model s
strategy
To be developed
42 2012/2/14
43. Background
Research objectives
Conceptual foundation
Progress and results
Research plan
43 2012/2/14
44. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Research plan
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Item T ask 2012 2013
Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Sep Oct N ov Dec Jan Feb
Finish MRUMP for small-scale water
1
resources project
2 Preparation for ethnographic study
2.1 contact local staff and
stakeholders
2.2 select case to conduct a field
study
3 Conduct a 1st fieldstudy
4 Conduct a 2nd field study
5 Refine the MRUMP
6 Preparation for thesis report
44 2012/2/14
45. Background
Research
objectives
Conceptual
Ethnographic study
foundation
Progress and
results
Research plan
Location : Thailand
Project : 2 projects
Methodology : ethnographic study (data sources are
supplemented by data collected through participant
observation, interviews, documents and informal
social contact); (Myers, 1999)
45 2012/2/14
46. Published paper
Reviewed paper
Piriya Uraiwong and Tsunemi Watanabe, “Stakeholder
analysis of water resources project in Thailand”, Social
Society and Management System (SSMS) online
journal, January 2012
Conference paper
Piriya Uraiwong and Tsunemi Watanabe, “Community
mechanism for water resource risk
management”, International conference for a sustainable
greater Mekong sub region, Bangkok Thailand, 2010
Piriya Uraiwong and Tsunemi Watanabe, “Model for small-
scale water resources project development: based on a Thai
case”, 4th Thailand-Japan international academic
conference, Tokyo Japan, 2011
46 2012/2/14
Good morning everyone. Thank you prof. Watanabe for the introduction and I would like to thank committee members for this opportunity for me to present my research progress today.My research topic is “Application of Multi-Party Risk and Uncertainty Management Process to local water resources project management”
This presentation is organized as following. Fist I will start with introduction of small-scale water resources project failure in Thailand and how it occurs.Then the main objective of this research is to develop systematic multi-party risk management process and project consensus building guidance for better management. In this research, related conceptual foundation are multi-party risk management, water resources management, mental model and risk management.For research progress, there are 2 phases in this research; conceptual phase and empirical phase. Now I am in the developing risk management process.And the last part is to introduce future work and research plan.
Let start with research background
After the rapid economic development in the past thirty years, the water resources development program has been implemented to support rapid rural development, industrialization, tourism development, domestic consumption, agriculture and other purpose drastically. The Thai government has funded for many small, medium and large scale water resources construction projects.
SurveyResults from the department of water resources Thailand shows that in North-eastern Thailand only 17% of project are in good condition while 43% needs rehabilitation, 8% need to be reconstructed and 5% were neglected by stakeholders.
To analyze this problem, the literatures indicated that water resources management problem in Thailand can be categorized into 2 levels: National level and Basin level.In national level, problems are unclear national water policy and plan, no water law, budget limitation and defragmented water organization.In basin level, lack of stakeholder participation and no effective management mechanism which cause no sense of ownership are problems.In this research, problem in basin level will be focus.
To analyze small-scale water resources project failure, failure knowledge database concept was employed. Failure elements is comprised of sequences of cause, action and results.
In small water resources failure project cases, these actions were taken.
From action taken and trace back to identify causes. These are causes of failure project. Detail of failure analysis is in attachment#1.Passive public participation (Poor strategy/ concept)No project life cycle operation and maintenance plan (Poor strategy/ concept)No project monitoring system (Poor strategy/ concept)Low data exchange between stakeholders (Narrow outlook)Low acceptance of local’s knowledge (Narrow outlook)No awareness of public participation (Insufficient knowledge)Lack of project understanding among stakeholders (Insufficient knowledge)
In conclusion, context of problem areProject not meet stakeholder’s needInsufficient communicationLack of risk awarenessNo effective process in decision-makingDynamic problem
Research objectives
Research questions areWhat are key aspects and limitations of current participation in decision-making process?Can Multi-party Risk and Uncertainty Management Process (MRUMP) be applied as a tool to improve stakeholder participation in decision making activities?
Research hypothesis is “Implementation of Multi-party Risk and Uncertainty Management Process (MRUMP) as a tool for local communities participation in decision-making activity could decrease likelihood of small-scale water resources project failure in Thailand”
Which leads to research objectivesDevelop a systematic risk management process for better small-scale water resources project managementDevelop a guidance for small-scale water resources project consensus building through multi-party risk and uncertainty management process
This research design consists of conceptual phase and empirical phase.The research started with problem analysis and develop tool to tackle the problem.In the empirical phase is to apply the developed process and verify the findings.Output of this research will be a systematic process for small-scale water resources project risk management and the outcome will be guidance or suggestions for project risk consensus building.
The literature study was done to comprehend the context of Water resources risk management and to provide a clear theoretical framework for this research.These are list of research related conceptual foundation.Water resources management in ThailandWater resources risk managementRisk management processRisk perception and risk communicationMental model
Regarding to project participation in Thailand water resources literatures have mentioned that
This is participation form on Thai water resources project There are 4 types of participation: public hearing, committee/working group, dialogue and local initiation.Most of the cases are public hearing and committee, but this still lack of consensus building.
To develop consensus building it is required to understand how stakeholders perceive the systems within which they live and functionbuild a shared understanding between involved stakeholders form their mental model
This is mental model schematicMental model are what people use to understand and interpret phenomena of everyday life. This schematic shows how Mental model supports decision making.
multi-party risk and uncertainty management process (MRUMP), which was originally developed for better risk management for aninfrastructure project by Jirapong and Prof. Watanabe, seems an effective way of achieving consensus building. Major deliverables of the MRUMP includes:Risk/uncertainty map. The HSRU structure is structured based on hierarchical flow of source, consequence, occurrence, and outcome.Duration valuation process (DVP) give the delay date in construction project due to risk and uncertainty map. All parties are required to incorporate to identify, communicate and cooperatively solve the problem.
But there are some constraints to apply MRUMP to water resources projectMRUMP did not mention stakeholder analysis as a first step to identify stakeholders, their power and importance.MRUMP was conducted by an assessor’s point of view which associated with the assessors’ bias, and it may not yield an in-depth analysis.The duration valuation process (DVP) providing risk and uncertainty dimension in form of delay date is not applicable for local environmental management.
This is a proposed Multi-party risk and uncertainty management process.This process composed of five elements namely Stakeholders and resources identificationMulti-party risk assessmentMulti-party risk responseMulti-party risk consensusImplementThis process is supported by monitor, evaluation, and communication for the whole process.
The first step is to identify project related stakeholders and resources by using Actor, Resource, Dynamic, Inter-action, and Law mapping.
This is schematic of stakeholder and resource map from ARDIL method which will illustrate project system.
The second step of the process is to identify and asses project risks by employing hierarchical structure of risk, risk register and semi-quantitative risk analysis. Output of this step is risk register matrix which will yield a project risk ranking.
Risk identification will be conducted through project life cycle risk breakdown structure.Project life cycle is separated into three phase; planning phase, construction phase and operation and maintenance phase.In each phase risks will be identified by stakeholders.
In risk identification process, Hierarchy structure of risk is structured based on hierarchical flow of source, consequence, occurrence, and outcomeAsking and questioning “what’s can go wrong?” , “How it happen?”, and “what is impact?” in other word “what are cause events and what are effect events?”
Results form risk identification will be input into risk register matrix as shown in this slide.
In order to quantify risk, semi-quantitative risk assessment is employed.It based on definition of risk = multiplication of probability and impact
For probability scoring is to investigate the likelihood that each risk will occur.It can be in form of ordinal scale, cardinal scale or quantitative approach (probability)
For impact scoring four types of impact; materials loss, human lives, environmental consequences and social loss with five scaling is reflected here.
Finally overall project risk ranking is available in probability-impact matrix. Risk ranking can help guide risk response.
Up to this stage, we can have update risk register matrix which show risk ranking. However, this result yields only numerical result (risk ranking) but how to deal with stakeholder mental model structure regarding to physical risk and how stakeholder will evaluate and response risks need to be investigated.
From numerical result (risk ranking),how to deal with stakeholder mental model structure regarding to physical risk and how stakeholder will evaluate and response risks need to be investigated.
Socio-cultural context, risk characteristics and personal advantages are factors that affect individual risk perception and risk response.
Further study is needed from field investigation to observe and analyze stakeholder risk perception, decision making process, and how they response to those risks that was identified in the previous step.
To study stakeholder risk response mental model, ethnographic study in Thailand will be conducted.First to apply concept of multi party risk management process to one project then elicit and construct stakeholder risk response which leads to development of risk consensus.The stakeholder risk response from the first project will be adjust and used as a pilot model then conduct the same process in the second project to validate the pilot model.
The ultimate output of this research is to develop guidance for consensus building for water resources project.Since many stakeholders exist, it is necessary to develop a risk communication strategy that can obtain consensus among many stakeholders (Ookawara, 2012)Consensus communication is riskcommunication to inform and encouragegroups to work together to reach adecision about how the risk will bemanaged (prevented or mitigated).This process is to be studied.