1. A Model of School
Learning:
A Presentation on School System
Monitoring and Evaluation
Richard Noonan, August 30, 2013
2. Introduction 1/4
• This model has evolved over many years (beginning in
the late 1960s) in response to research needs.
• As an education and training economist, my focus on
the input side is primarily on resources, rather than
processes.
• My focus on the output side is on both learning
outcomes and labor market outcomes.
• The context in which this model has evolved is applied
research, i.e., research intended for planning,
management, and development of education systems.
• Feedback loops linking inputs and processes to
outcomes enable assessment of the internal and
external efficiency of the system.
3. Introduction 2/4
• This is a model for planning, management, and
development of an existing education system.
• Thus it is based on the assumption that the aims and
objectives of the system are known.
• What is not known are the specific quantities and
qualities of the inputs and the nature of the
processes needed to achieve the intended aims and
objectives.
• In the applied research context, the inputs and
processes can be modified, and the effects can be
tracked with the feedback loops.
4. Introduction 3/4
• Finally, a word of caution:
– As every social science student learns in Statistics 101,
correlation does not imply causation. An observed correlation
can represent the “causal effect” of X on Y, or the effect of Z
on both X and Y, or more complicated effect relationships.
– An observed correlation can also be the consequence of how we
allocate resources (the “allocation effect”). To simplify
greatly:
• If we put high-achievers in well-resourced schools and low-achievers in
poorly-resourced schools (elitist resource allocation), we will certainly see a
positive correlation between resources and school learning outcomes;
• If we put both high-achievers and low-achievers in moderately well-
resourced schools (egalitarian resource allocation), the correlation will be
close to 0 but probably positive;
• If we provide additional pedagogical support to low-achievers
(compensatory resource allocation), we are likely to observe a negative
correlation between resources and school learning outcomes, even if the
causal effect is positive!
5. Introduction 4/4
• In survey research, the use of multivariate statistical
analysis can be of some help in sorting out the causal
effect from the allocation effect, but there is no
assurance that the allocation effect is completely
controlled.
• Carefully controlled “experimental design”*, supported
by propensity analysis, is probably the strongest tool
we have today for disentangling the causal effect from
the allocation effect.
* I use quotation marks because a true experimental
design, as idealized in the natural sciences, is not really
possible in the real social-economic-political world. You
just do the best you can and try in the data analysis to
control for the aberration.
6. What are the key
indicators needed to
support decision making
in the planning,
management and
development of
education system?
42. If you think this is
complicated, try teaching in
a classroom or managing a
school or, even worse,
managing a national
education and training
system!
44. Acknowledgements
• The first version of this model was based on J. B.
Carroll (1963): “A Model of School Learning”.
Teachers College Record. 64(723-733).
• The clock is placed in the Processes box as a
reference to the seminal paper by B. S. Bloom, (1968).
“Learning for Mastery”. Evaluation Comment. 1(2),
University of California at Los Angeles, Center for
the Study of Evaluation.
• For the evolution of this model I owe a great debt to
my students and colleagues at Stockholm University,
Institute for International Education, and to my
friends and colleagues from research and consulting
missions around the world.