1. MNI China Business Indicator increases to 53.7 in
May from 51.1 in April
Confidence at five month high
Insight and data for better decisions
Business confidence rose to a five month high in
May, a possible indication that some of the mini-
stimulus measures announced in early April could be
feeding through to the economy, amid evidence that
our survey panel is finding it easier to obtain credit.
The MNI China Business Indicator rose to 53.7 in
May from 51.1 in April, the highest since December
2013. If sustained into June, it points to an
improvement in the second quarter from the one and
half year low in the first quarter, providing a tentative
indication of a stabilisation in GDP growth.
Other data within the report provides evidence of a
general pick-up, with Production and New Orders
increasing. Availability of credit, which rose to the
highest level for four years, contrasts with other
reports that suggest a tightening in credit conditions,
and has continued to improve since the end of last
year.
Firms complained of higher costs which have risen
due to the firmer oil price and the depreciation in the
yuan. The Input Prices indicator increased to the
highest level since June 2012, but Prices Received
fell below the breakeven 50 level in May, increasing
the price squeeze on companies.
Companies have benefited from the weaker exchange
rate. The Effect of the Yuan Exchange Rate Indicator
rose above 50 for the first time since September
2012.
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MNI China Business Indicator
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Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Commenting on the data, Chief Economist of MNI
Indicators Philip Uglow said, “While the authorities
have been keen to play down the possibility of
unleashing a large stimulus package, the rise in credit
availability and the more positive tone of the report
suggests that government efforts to stabilise growth
could be having an impact.”
For more information, please contact:
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+44 (0)20 7862 7444

2. MNI Indicators - 16 May 2014 2
info@mni-indicators.com | www.mni-indicators.com | @MNIIndicatos
Overview
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI China Business
Indicator
Current Conditions 53.4 51.1 53.7 Dec-13 - 52.7 2.6 5.1%
Future Expectations 56.6 55.6 57.1 Jan-14 - 56.4 1.5 2.7%
Production
Current Conditions 50.2 51.9 56.9 Dec-13 - 53.0 5.0 9.6%
Future Expectations 56.9 55.8 60.4 Nov-13 - 57.7 4.6 8.2%
New Orders
Current Conditions 53.6 49.6 55.4 Jan-14 - 52.9 5.8 11.7%
Future Expectations 60.2 56.5 59.6 Mar-14 - 58.8 3.1 5.5%
Productive Capacity
Current Conditions 52.4 54.6 57.3 Dec-12 - 54.8 2.7 4.9%
Future Expectations 55.1 57.4 60.9 Jan-12 - 57.8 3.5 6.1%
Order Backlogs
Current Conditions* 36.9 35.7 37.9 Jul-13 - 36.8 2.2 6.2%
Future Expectations 35.2 37.3 38.1 Jan-14 - 36.9 0.8 2.1%
Employment
Current Conditions 46.1 52.5 50.4 - Mar-14 49.7 -2.1 -4.0%
Future Expectations* 57.0 54.9 55.3 Mar-14 - 55.7 0.4 0.7%
Inventories
Current Conditions* 44.3 51.8 51.0 - Mar-14 49.0 -0.8 -1.5%
Future Expectations* 40.9 50.0 50.7 Sep-11 - 47.2 0.7 1.4%
Input Prices
Current Conditions* 63.7 63.9 65.1 Jun-12 - 64.2 1.2 1.9%
Future Expectations* 63.4 63.1 66.4 Apr-12 - 64.3 3.3 5.2%
Prices Received
Current Conditions 52.5 50.1 47.6 - Feb-14 50.1 -2.5 -5.0%
Future Expectations 54.2 55.0 51.2 - Feb-14 53.5 -3.8 -6.9%
Financial Position
Current Conditions* 57.0 57.0 59.3 Jul-10 - 57.8 2.3 4.0%
Future Expectations 63.5 58.2 60.2 Mar-14 - 60.6 2.0 3.4%
Interest Rates Paid
Current Conditions* 59.3 52.7 53.1 Mar-14 - 55.0 0.4 0.8%
Future Expectations* 52.8 51.7 52.3 Mar-14 - 52.3 0.6 1.2%
Effect of Yuan
Exchange Rate
Current Conditions* 46.6 48.4 50.6 Sep-12 - 48.5 2.2 4.5%
Future Expectations* 48.6 48.1 49.7 Jan-13 - 48.8 1.6 3.3%
Availability of Credit
Current Conditions* 51.0 51.4 53.8 Jul-10 - 52.1 2.4 4.7%
Future Expectations* 52.9 51.7 53.4 Dec-13 - 52.7 1.7 3.3%
*Not seasonally adjusted