Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank Economic Outlook 29 September 2009Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank Economic Outlook 29 September 2009Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Macroeconomic Developments Report, December 2017Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Economic and Structural Report August 2008, extract fromSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
So far Sterling and Japanese and European equity markets have borne the brunt of the initial shock, while the FTSE is down only 3.3% since Thursday and most major and emerging market currencies have been reasonably well behaved (see Figure 1).
But there are still far many more questions than answers and the situation remains extremely fluid.
For starters there is no precedent for a country leaving the EU and thus no clear-cut rulebook to rely on. The government has limited institutional capacity to start negotiations with the UK’s 27 EU partners until Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered and no timeline has been provided for when this will happen (assuming it is triggered at all).
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the mammoth task ahead, the Leave campaign leaders have been very short on specifics regarding the mechanics and timing of the UK’s exit from the EU, the likely shape of future trade treaties and national policies such as immigration. Prime Minister Cameron’s de-facto resignation and wholesale changes in personnel in the opposition Labour Party are adding to the head-scratching.
Moreover, it is not one country seeking to leave the EU, but a union of four countries – England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – which further complicates matters as both Scotland and Northern Ireland seem intent on remaining part of the EU and potentially breaking free from the UK.
At this point in time, all we can do is take stock of what we know (or at least we think we know) and what we don’t know (but can tentatively try to forecast).
I would conclude, as I did in Europe – the Final Countdown (21 June 2016), that the many layers of political, legal, economic and financial uncertainty are likely to keep UK investment, consumption and employment, as well as Sterling on the back-foot for months to come. Financial market volatility is also likely to remain elevated in coming weeks.
In this context the US Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates on hold in coming months and the European Central Bank can probably afford to do little for the time being. The Bank of England is likely to seriously contemplate cutting its policy rate while the Bank of Japan will be under renewed pressure to curb soaring Yen strength.
Of course, British policy-makers and business associations have come out and said the right things in order to limit the carnage and contagion. But they have far more limited room to reflate the economy and fade gyrations in financial markets than they did during the 2008-2009 great financial crisis. They are not in control at this juncture and it is not obvious who is.
After stabilization in 1993 Moldova maintained an unsustainable macroeconomic policy mix. The key problem was a lack of a fiscal adjustment, which resulted in large budget deficits. At the same time, the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) attempted to conduct a tight monetary policy. As a result, the exchange rate was appreciating, domestic absorption increasingly exceeded income and the country has been running large Current Account deficits. Moldova had an access to international financial markets and its indebtedness vs. the rest of the world was growing year by year at an alarming rate. Finally, in late 1998 Moldova suffered a balance of payments crisis, directly triggered by developments in Russia. Moldovan leu was devalued by about 70% and the current account improved.
The paper concentrates on the empirical dimension of the Moldovan financial crisis. It provides a case study of a) detecting and interpreting macroeconomic anomalies and b) identification of early warning signals of policy unsustainability and imminent change of financial market sentiment.
Authored by: Marek Jarocinski
Published in 2000
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
"Highlights":
Economy faces temporary slowdown
Loan portfolio is showing some signs of moderation
External trade activity drops due to slowdown in re-exports
"In Focus":
Retail trade developments, by Daina Paula
From ELANA Trading: Macroeconomic and Market Outlook 2015 „Bulgaria: Back on ...ELANA Group
This research report offers a thorough view on the major macroeconomic trends in Bulgaria, looking also into all internal and external factors such as crisis in Russia and Ukraine, as well as Greece turmoil. The outlook includes a snapshot of the Bulgarian stock market and its movers & shakers as well as ELANA Trading analysts top picks.
Some analysts points:
- We are cautious for 2015, but looking for a GDP growth pick up in 2016.
- Factors to watch during in 2015 would be the first decisive moves for reforms of the new coalition government, Greece and the crisis in Ukraine.
- The recent capital market decline provides good buying opportunities in various sectors as banks and financial services, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, etc.
- Upcoming IT IPO to boost market vitality.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The economy is going through a soft patch.
Unemployment increased due to this and seasonal
factors, but started rapidly falling in April.
Macroeconomic balances mostly improved in
the 1Q10. A lot of slack in the economy helped
inflationary tensions ease in this period and the CPI
inflation rate should remain within the central bank
target band for the next four quarters at least. The
four quarter rolling current account deficit rose
slightly in terms of GDP while the central government
deficit came lower than expected.
Purchasing Managers' Index Report May 2010Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank Economic Outlook - 2010, September 21Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Macroeconomic Developments Report, December 2017Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Economic and Structural Report August 2008, extract fromSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
So far Sterling and Japanese and European equity markets have borne the brunt of the initial shock, while the FTSE is down only 3.3% since Thursday and most major and emerging market currencies have been reasonably well behaved (see Figure 1).
But there are still far many more questions than answers and the situation remains extremely fluid.
For starters there is no precedent for a country leaving the EU and thus no clear-cut rulebook to rely on. The government has limited institutional capacity to start negotiations with the UK’s 27 EU partners until Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered and no timeline has been provided for when this will happen (assuming it is triggered at all).
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the mammoth task ahead, the Leave campaign leaders have been very short on specifics regarding the mechanics and timing of the UK’s exit from the EU, the likely shape of future trade treaties and national policies such as immigration. Prime Minister Cameron’s de-facto resignation and wholesale changes in personnel in the opposition Labour Party are adding to the head-scratching.
Moreover, it is not one country seeking to leave the EU, but a union of four countries – England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – which further complicates matters as both Scotland and Northern Ireland seem intent on remaining part of the EU and potentially breaking free from the UK.
At this point in time, all we can do is take stock of what we know (or at least we think we know) and what we don’t know (but can tentatively try to forecast).
I would conclude, as I did in Europe – the Final Countdown (21 June 2016), that the many layers of political, legal, economic and financial uncertainty are likely to keep UK investment, consumption and employment, as well as Sterling on the back-foot for months to come. Financial market volatility is also likely to remain elevated in coming weeks.
In this context the US Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates on hold in coming months and the European Central Bank can probably afford to do little for the time being. The Bank of England is likely to seriously contemplate cutting its policy rate while the Bank of Japan will be under renewed pressure to curb soaring Yen strength.
Of course, British policy-makers and business associations have come out and said the right things in order to limit the carnage and contagion. But they have far more limited room to reflate the economy and fade gyrations in financial markets than they did during the 2008-2009 great financial crisis. They are not in control at this juncture and it is not obvious who is.
After stabilization in 1993 Moldova maintained an unsustainable macroeconomic policy mix. The key problem was a lack of a fiscal adjustment, which resulted in large budget deficits. At the same time, the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) attempted to conduct a tight monetary policy. As a result, the exchange rate was appreciating, domestic absorption increasingly exceeded income and the country has been running large Current Account deficits. Moldova had an access to international financial markets and its indebtedness vs. the rest of the world was growing year by year at an alarming rate. Finally, in late 1998 Moldova suffered a balance of payments crisis, directly triggered by developments in Russia. Moldovan leu was devalued by about 70% and the current account improved.
The paper concentrates on the empirical dimension of the Moldovan financial crisis. It provides a case study of a) detecting and interpreting macroeconomic anomalies and b) identification of early warning signals of policy unsustainability and imminent change of financial market sentiment.
Authored by: Marek Jarocinski
Published in 2000
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
"Highlights":
Economy faces temporary slowdown
Loan portfolio is showing some signs of moderation
External trade activity drops due to slowdown in re-exports
"In Focus":
Retail trade developments, by Daina Paula
From ELANA Trading: Macroeconomic and Market Outlook 2015 „Bulgaria: Back on ...ELANA Group
This research report offers a thorough view on the major macroeconomic trends in Bulgaria, looking also into all internal and external factors such as crisis in Russia and Ukraine, as well as Greece turmoil. The outlook includes a snapshot of the Bulgarian stock market and its movers & shakers as well as ELANA Trading analysts top picks.
Some analysts points:
- We are cautious for 2015, but looking for a GDP growth pick up in 2016.
- Factors to watch during in 2015 would be the first decisive moves for reforms of the new coalition government, Greece and the crisis in Ukraine.
- The recent capital market decline provides good buying opportunities in various sectors as banks and financial services, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, etc.
- Upcoming IT IPO to boost market vitality.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The economy is going through a soft patch.
Unemployment increased due to this and seasonal
factors, but started rapidly falling in April.
Macroeconomic balances mostly improved in
the 1Q10. A lot of slack in the economy helped
inflationary tensions ease in this period and the CPI
inflation rate should remain within the central bank
target band for the next four quarters at least. The
four quarter rolling current account deficit rose
slightly in terms of GDP while the central government
deficit came lower than expected.
Purchasing Managers' Index Report May 2010Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank Economic Outlook - 2010, September 21Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank's Global Economic Outlook, 2010 AugustSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2015Latvijas Banka
Based on data from tLatvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Global growth is moderatng as the recovery in trade
and manufacturing actvity loses steam. Despite
ongoing negotatons, trade tensions among major
economies remain elevated. These tensions, combined
with concerns about sofening global growth prospects, have weighed on investor sentment and contributed to
declines in global equity prices. Borrowing costs for
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
have increased, in part as major advanced-economy
central banks contnue to withdraw policy
accommodaton in varying degrees. A strengthening
U.S. dollar, heightened financial market volatlity, and
rising risk premiums have intensified capital outlow
and currency pressures in some large EMDEs, with
some vulnerable countries experiencing substantal
financial stress. Energy prices have fluctuated markedly,
mainly due to supply factors, with sharp falls toward
the end of 2018. Economic actvity in the Euro Area has
been somewhat weaker than previously expected,
owing to slowing net exports. EMDE growth edged
down to an estmated 4.2 percent in 2018 as a number
of countries with elevated current account deficits
experienced substantal financial market pressures and
appreciable slowdowns in actvity. In low-income
countries (LICs), growth is firming as infrastructure
investment contnues and easing drought conditons
support a rebound in agricultural output.
The business cycle, the global financial crisis and the future of oil markets are currently the three most popular topics of discussion. Since the start of the recession, the international media has been quick to bring many new theories and revelations, brilliant in their simplicity, to light. Hope is the mother of invention, and amidst the crisis they cannot be disproved. However, in two or three years time, 99% of this verbal chaff will have been blown away and only serious analytical work will remain.
Authored by: Leonid Grigoriev
Published in 2010
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2018Latvijas Banka
Macroeconomic Developments Report:
External Demand;
Financial Conditions;
Sectoral Development;
GDP Analysis from the Demand Side;
Labour Market;
Costs and Prices;
Conclusions and Forecasts;
The Fiscal Impact of Inequality Measures. Analysis of Scenarios.
The article was divided into the following sections-
1) Setting the scene
2) Visualizing the fall
3) Delving Deeper
4) Timeline of events
5) Impact on the Russian Economy
6) Finding positives in negatives
7) Conclusion
8) References
The recent correction in global financial markets has left developed market equities about 10% cheaper and emerging market equities 25% cheaper, removing a lot of the valuation froth that was evident.
Commenting in Novare Investments’ economic report for the third quarter of 2015, Francois van der Merwe, Head of Macro Research, said: “We expect global equities to be supported by continued accommodative monetary policies, soft inflation and a moderate global economic recovery.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2019Latvijas Banka
The Macroeconomic Developments Report is published on a semi-annual basis. This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
This presentation considers the possibility of a second recession in the face of the ongoing European Debt Crisis, misguided attempts to address the crisis through austerity and struggling world economies. It also reflects on the impact of the probable break-up of EU’s currency union, measures to avert the scenario and vulnerable positions of the economies of the USA, China and India to more trouble in the Euro-zone.
The doomsday scenario has been summarized by Martin Wolf of Financial Times (May 17, 2012):
“The mechanisms at work would be powerful: bank runs; the imposition of (illegal) exchange controls; legal uncertainties; asset price collapses; unpredictable shifts in balance sheets; freezing of the financial system; disruption of central banking; collapse in spending and trade; and enormous shifts in the exchange rates of new currencies.
.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
As the ‘sanctions war’ heats up, Will Putin Play his gold card ?GE 94
The topic of ‘currency war’ has been bantered about in financial circles since at least the term was
first used by Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega in September 2010. Recently, the currency
war has escalated, and a ‘sanctions war ’ against Russia has broken out. History suggests that
financial assets are highly unlikely to preserve investors’ real purchasing power in this inhospitable
international environment, due in part to the associated currency crises, which will catalyse at least
a partial international remonetisation of gold. Vladimir Putin, under pressure from economic
sanctions, may calculate that now is the time to play his ‘gold card ’.
Similar to Russia - sharp slowdown and protacted recovery (20)
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
1. Swedbank Baltic Sea Analysis No. 21 23 June 2009
Economic Research Department, Swedbank AB (publ), SE-105 34 Stockholm, tel +46 (0)8-5859 1028
e-mail: ek.sekr@swedbank.se Internet: www.swedbank.se Responsible publishers: Cecilia Hermansson +46 (0)8-5859 1588
Magnus Alvesson +46 (0)8-5859 3341, Jörgen Kennemar +46 (0)8-5859 1478 ISSN 1103-4897
Russia – sharp slowdown and protracted recovery
• The Russian economy contracted during the first quarter by slightly
more than 9.5% at an annual real rate. This is more than expected,
and we are revising down our 2009 growth forecast to -6%, followed
by a limited recovery in 2010 of 1%. The largest decline was seen in
domestic demand, in particular consumption and investments,
aggravated by the slowdown in global trade and financial flows. One
trouble spot is an increase in loan losses and further weakening of the
banking system. On the other hand, the recovery could be aided by
the significant reserves at the disposal of the Russian government for
expansive fiscal stimulus measures as well as a return to higher oil
prices.
• Russian authorities face difficult choices in the short and medium
term. The economic slowdown appears to be deeper than previously
expected, and the risk of major swings in the financial markets, both
externally and internally, still remains. Large fiscal stimulus packages
can mitigate the impact of the recession, but have to be balanced
against the need for stability in domestic prices and exchange rates.
In the medium term, Russia cannot hope for a repeat of the previously
high growth levels without extensive structural reforms of the
economy.
Unexpectedly large drop in economic activity
The economic slowdown in Russia was surprisingly severe during the
first quarter of 2009. GDP is estimated to have shrunk by 9.5% on an
annual basis, mainly due to a contracting manufacturing sector,
although indicators for retail sales and investments also pointed to
significant declines. After a long period of steady growth, driven by
favorable global economic conditions and exceptionally high energy
prices, the Russian economy now faces challenges not seen since
the last crisis in 1998-99. This time around, however, it cannot expect
much support from global economic environment, and it is unlikely
that oil prices and capital inflows will reach the same levels as in
2006-08.
The downturn is the
most severe since
1998-99
2. 2 Swedbank Baltic Sea Analysis No. 21 • 23 June 2009
Economic activity, 2003 – 2009
GDP (real) Manufacturing Retail Investment
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Annualchangeinpercent
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
The external demand contraction exacerbates the downturn. The
global recession has hit the Russian export sector hard and the value
of exports fell by nearly 50% during the first three months of the year
compared with the same period of 2008, largely due to falling oil
prices. Despite lower imports, the trade surplus fell significantly,
reducing Russia’s foreign reserves. The rouble was devalued
stepwise last fall, but rising oil prices and tighter monetary policy has
strengthened the value slightly in recent months.1
The value of the
rouble has not fallen in real terms as much as during the crisis in
1998-99, when it dropped by more than 50%. In May 2009, it had
declined about 11% compared with November last year. This
provides the Russian economy with a slight competitive advantage,
while, however, the servicing of foreign debt becomes more costly.
Foreign trade and oil prices, July 2006 – April 2009
Export (value, USD)
Import (value, USD)
Oil price (Ural)
Rouble against basket (55% USD; 45% EUR)
Source: Reuters EcoWin
jul okt jan apr jul okt jan apr jul okt jan apr
06 07 08 09
USDperbarrel
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Annualchangeinpercent
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1
Russian exchange rate policy is built on a target rate for the rouble against
a basket consisting of dollars (55%) and euros (45%). During the latter half
of 2008, the target rate was raised as the international financial crisis
worsened and oil prices dropped. At present, the Russian central bank has a
target of 41 versus the basket.
Global demand
is slowing …
3. Swedbank Baltic Sea Analysis No. 21 • 23 June 2009 3
Domestic demand is also weakening quickly. Growing losses for
companies and banks, coupled with a rapid slowdown in foreign
capital inflows, have created liquidity problems in the financial sector,
reducing lending to businesses and households. Though lending
volumes have fallen from exceptionally high levels, the rapid cutback
is, in turn, creating liquidity problems for companies. This, together
with a more downbeat outlook for the economy, led to a drop in
investments of slightly over 2% in real terms during the last quarter of
2008, a decline which continues in early 2009. Foreign direct
investment has also fallen substantially, by 43% in the first quarter
2009 compared with the same period in 2008.
Lending to businesses and households, September 2007-March 2009
Lending rate (RHS) Credit to households Credit to enterprises
Source: Reuters EcoWin
sep nov jan mar maj jul sep nov jan
07 08 09
Percent
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Annualchangeinpercent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Household demand has also slowed. Falling real wages and rising
unemployment have pushed real disposable income down. The
Russian labor market is flexible in terms of wage setting and is
quickly adapting to lower demand, but unemployment is still rising
substantially, and reached in April 10.2% before moderating slightly in
May to 9.9%. Growing wage arrears further worsen the economic
situation for households. Lower labor costs are helping to ease
declining profitability in the private sector, but could, at the same time,
create social unrest and tension. The consequences of the economic
crisis have been especially tangible in cities and regions dominated
by few industries and employers.
Labor market development, August 2002 – April 2009
Disposabel income (real) Real wages Unemployment rate (RHS)
Source: Reuters EcoWin
aug dec apr aug dec apr aug dec apr aug dec apr aug dec apr aug dec apr aug dec apr
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Percent
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
Annualchangeinpercent
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
… reinforced by
weaker domestic
demand
Households are
struggling with real
wage cuts and
rapidly rising
unemployment
4. 4 Swedbank Baltic Sea Analysis No. 21 • 23 June 2009
The Russian government has the will and the fiscal resources to
mitigate the economic slowdown, but there are risks inherent in overly
expansive policies. Lower interest rates and a weaker rouble,
combined with fiscal measures, have mainly supported the financial
sector and businesses. To ease the impact of the growing recession,
a fiscal stimulus package equivalent to up to 10% of GDP is planned
in 2009. The main part has, to date, been allocated to corporate tax
cuts, but it is expected that an increasing share will be used to
alleviate the social consequences of the crisis.
The risks remain high, however. Overly expansive policies could
exhaust the possibilities of fighting the crisis at a later stage. The
problems in the financial sector could be more severe than currently
estimated, and may require considerably greater resources to avoid
acute liquidity problems. Furthermore, tax cuts and increased
subsidies to the business sector could be hard to claw back once the
economy rebounds, eroding fiscal sustainability. Expansive policies
also put pressure on exchange rates and inflation. External capital
inflows and investments could also decline further if the international
outlook on the Russian economy deteriorates. Moreover, oil prices,
which are currently helping Russia to mitigate the crisis, could quickly
reverse again. The economy, thus, remains vulnerable.
Fiscal resources, 2006 – 2008
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2006 2007 2008K1 2008K2 2008K3 2008
PercentofGDP
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
USdollarbillion
Reserves
Budget balance
(LHS)
Source: Russia Economic Report No. 18 (World Bank, 2009)
The political situation in Russia can still be considered stable, despite
that the number of protests has grown in the wake of the economic
crisis. Rumors are flourishing about President Medvedev’s and Prime
Minister Putin’s roles, and about the possibility of a new presidential
election to reinstate Putin. This is unlikely, however, and both are still
popular and the opposition remains divided. The biggest risk of
disturbances is thought to be in regions where the recession has
been especially severe, and it is likely that a considerable part of the
fiscal stimulus package will target these areas. Foreign policy has
received less attention despite the BRIC2
summit last week.
Discussions of Russian membership in the WTO also seem to have
hit a roadblock. If anything, the latest maneuver by Russia
announcing that it would seek to join the WTO as part of a customs
bloc together with Belarus and Kazakhstan will delay rather than
speed up the membership process
2
Brazil, Russia, China and India.
A massive fiscal
stimulus will ease
the recession …
… but the economy
remains vulnerable
The political situation
is stable, but openness
to the world tends to
be limited
5. Swedbank Baltic Sea Analysis No. 21 • 23 June 2009 5
Productivity gains for long-term growth
Looking beyond the current recession, it seems clear that the growth
potential of Russia’s economic will stagnate if reforms to raise
productivity are not implemented. The recovery was rapid following
the crisis in 1998-99. This was largely the result of extensive
overcapacity following the breakdown of the Soviet economy. Labor
was shifted from an inefficient agricultural sector to more productive
service and manufacturing industries, and productivity rose
significantly as a result. That can only happen once, and without an
underlying driving force that raises productivity, the potential for
higher growth levels is reduced. At the same time, real wages have
been boosted by large capital inflows and significant surpluses in the
oil sector. A real appreciation of the currency has affected Russia’s
competitiveness, and an increasing share of domestic consumption
has been met through imports, leaving a large share of Russian
industry with low value-added production.
Higher productivity and growth potential often require extensive and
controversial reforms. Certain industries and segments of the
population will benefit, while others will not. The political costs could
be high. However, periods of economic crisis can offer an opportunity
to implement such reforms. When large sectors of the population are
financially affected by the crisis, there tends to be less resistance to
reforms that lead to change.
In many respects, Russian reform policy was put on hold during the
recent years of high growth. Investment, both public and private, has
been neglected. In the EBRD Transition Progress Index, which
measures the transition to a market economy, Russia trails the
countries that have made the most progress in terms of infrastructure
reforms (see diagram). Despite, or perhaps as a result of, Russia’s
large energy resources, investments in energy-efficient technologies
have suffered. For example, nearly 40% of heating plants in Russia
are more than 40 years old, compared with less than 3% in China.
Low electricity prices have left little incentive to expand capacity and
make efficiency improvements. Other public investments have also
proved insufficient, and limited construction of roads and transports
have hindered productivity growth in the private sector.
Infrastructure reforms in Russia – EBRD transition index, 1989 - 2008
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Russia
Best
Source: Transition Report 2008 (EBRD)
The last decade’s
productivity gains
won’t be repeated
Opportunity to
increase economic
reforms
Investments are
lagging
6. 6 Swedbank Baltic Sea Analysis No. 21 • 23 June 2009
The Russian labor market is flexible in terms of wages and
employment conditions, but mobility is often low. Education, which
otherwise maintains a high level, does not always fit the needs of
modern businesses. Insufficient investment in the education system
and occupational training has led to a shortage of the right
competencies. Mobility is limited by the social insurance system,
which is far from comprehensive and not tied to the employee.
Demographic trends are another factor that could limit growth
opportunities. Life expectancy and birth rates are low, and health
problems persist, which will lead to a dwindling population and
growing share of pensioners. In the next two decades, the Russian
population is expected to fall by 12%, from about 140 million to
slightly over 120 million. Moreover, participation rates are already
high.
Other important aspects affecting the productivity development are
business conditions and the degree of competition. The business
environment and opportunities for domestic and foreign companies to
set up and expand operations in Russia have improved significantly in
recent years. The regulations have been simplified and start-up costs
are relatively low compared with countries such as Brazil, China and
India. Still, Russia is not considered a stable market and is ranked
75th of 177 countries in a recent survey on the efficiency of its
regulatory framework (World Economic Forum). In addition, there
remains a widespread notion that private enterprise is limited by
corruption (Transparency International, 2009). In the latest “Doing
Business” report from the World Bank, Russia fell from a ranking of
52nd last year to 65th in 2009. Productivity growth is also hurt by the
lack of competition. In Russia, reforms in this area have stagnated
compared with more reform-friendly emerging market economies (see
diagram).
Competitive reforms in Russia – EBRD transition index, 1989 - 2008
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Russia
Best
Source: Transition Report 2008 (EBRD)
Labor skills do not fit
the business sector’s
needs
Russian demographics
pose a big risk to
economic development
Doing business isn't
easy enough yet
7. Swedbank Baltic Sea Analysis No. 21 • 23 June 2009 7
A crossroads for Russian economic policy
Russian economic and financial policies are, in the near term, geared
toward counteracting the global economic turbulence until financial
markets stabilize and oil prices bounce back. To do so, the country
has considerable financial reserves that were built up during the
boom years. High commodity prices and large financial resources will
not resolve Russia’s long-term growth challenges, however. Growth
potential will stagnate unless reforms are implemented to raise
productivity. In the medium term, the Russian economy must grow
more organically to withstand economic fluctuations and lessen its
dependency on global development. Previously high growth levels
were partly the result of huge surpluses from commodity production
and capital inflows, and partly of the overcapacity in the economy.
Without reforms to stimulate productivity, Russian growth may not
rebound to those levels.
Magnus Alvesson
Economic Research
Department
SE-105 34 Stockholm, Sweden
Telephone +46-8-5859 1031
ek.sek@swedbank.se
www.swedbank.se
Legally responsible publishers
Cecilia Hermansson,
+46-8-5859 1588.
Magnus Alvesson, +46-8-5859 3341
Jörgen Kennemar, +46-8-5859 1478
ISSN 1103-4897
Swedbank Baltic Sea Analysis is published as a service to our customers. We believe that we
have used reliable sources and methods in the preparation of the analyses reported in this
publication. However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the report and
cannot be held responsible for any error or omission in the underlying material or its use. Readers
are encouraged to base any (investment) decisions on other material as well. Neither Swedbank
nor its employees may be held responsible for losses or damages, direct or indirect, owing to any
errors or omissions in Swedbank Baltic Sea Analysis.
A new growth model
is needed to realize
Russia’s potential