Johan Rockström of the Stockholm Resilience Centre presented a roadmap for rapid decarbonization at COP23. The roadmap proposes halving global carbon emissions every decade to be consistent with limiting warming to below 2°C, as called for in the Paris Agreement. Rockström et al. published a 2017 Science paper outlining emissions profiles that halve circa 550 billion tons of CO2 by 2060 to stay within carbon budgets. If renewable energy adoption continues doubling every 5-6 years as the current trajectory, renewables could power all primary energy needs before 2050. The "Carbon Law" of halving emissions each decade provides a decadal pathway to translate the Paris Agreement into urgent

1. Johan Rockström
Stockholm Resilience Centre
14 November, COP23
Roadmap for rapid decarbonisation
Translating the Paris Agreement in to action

2. Translating the Paris Agreement into action
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

3. Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

4. Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

5. Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

6. Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

7. Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

9. Halving emissions
every decade is
consistent with
Paris Agreement

10. Pink: medium 2 °C scenarios—limiting warming during the twenty-first century to below 2 °C with 50–66% chance; orange: likely 2 °C scenarios—limiting
warming during the twenty-first century to below 2 °C with >66% chance; blue: 1.5 °C scenarios—limiting warming in 2100 to below 1.5 °C with >50%
chance.
Emissions profiles
consistent with
1.5C (dark blue)
2C (orange and
pink) Rogelj et al.
NatureCC 2015
Three years to safeguard our climate
Figueres et al Nature Climate Change 2017

11. 8
37 billion
tonnes
In 2017, global
carbon dioxide
emissions from
fossil fuels and
industry will reach
around 37bn
tonnes of carbon
dioxide.
Total emissions from all
sources: approx 41GtCO2
Le Quéré et al ESSDD Global Carbon Budget 2017
2% growth

12. The land and ocean absorb
around half the emissions
Le Quéré et al ESSDD Global Carbon Budget 20
8

13. … but atmospheric
concentrations continue to rise
8

14. 8
Proposing Decadal Pathways. Globally, halving emissions every decade is
consistent with the Paris Agreement goal to hold rise to “well below 2°C”.
Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Schellnhuber, H.J., 2017. “A roadmap for rapid decarbonization.” Science (80-. ), 355, 1269–1271.
Red line: Carbon budget following halving circa: 550GtCO2 to 2060. Grey area: Carbon budget 750GtCO2
to 2060.

15. We are already on the right trajectory
Renewables: Share of primary energy: doubling every 5-6 years
Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

16. We are already on the right trajectory
Renewables: Share of primary energy
If doubling pace continues, primary energy will be 100% renewable before 2050
Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

17. Carbon Law – halve emissions every decade

18. Carbon Law – halve emissions every decade

19. Decadal roadmap
Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

20. J o h a n Ro c k s t rö m
Stockholm Resilience Centre
14 November, COP23
Roadmap for rapid decarbonisation
Translating theParisAgreementintoaction