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Josh Tewksbury
State of the planet 2017
Hans Rosling (July 1948- February 2017)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
People in extreme poverty
People not
in extreme
poverty
Population(billions)
The Anthropocene
decline in
poverty50%In the past 20 years
Sources: Max Roser based on World Bank
and Bourguignon and Morrissson 2002
Photo: Borneo © WWF-Canon
Africa (383 million) Asia (327 million)
South America
(19 million)
North America
(13 million)
700+Million in
extreme
poverty in
Africa and
Asia
Source: World Bank
Photo: Borneo © WWF-Canon
The Anthropocene
decline in
illiteracy75%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Illiterate world population
Literate world population
Population(%)
In the past 30 years
Sources: Literate World Population (data from
OECD and UNESCO
Photo: Borneo © WWF-Canon
DoublingOf life expectancy
Sources: James Riley for data 1990 and back, WHO
and World Bank for later data (by Max Roser)
Photo: Borneo © WWF-Canon
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Lifeexpectancyatbirth
Global average
life expectancy
The Anthropocene
Peak
child
We
have
past
Sources: UNPD (Fertility) 2015 revision
Photo: Borneo © WWF-Canon
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
Childrenperwoman
Absolute # of
humans born / year
peaked here (135
million)
The Anthropocene
peaceful
We are more
Sources: Human Security Project (PRIO
data) – Max Roser
Photo: Borneo © WWF-Canon
596
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
#ofannualwarbattledeaths
Than we have been in
60+ years
Conflict
The Anthropocene
Link between
wealth and
wellbeing
(longevity) is
not linear
The Anthropocene
www.worldsocialscience.org | #ChallengingInequalities
The Anthropocene
Economic
& political
power
are increasingly
concentrated in the
hands of a small
number of people
“There are
1 billion poor living in
1 million slums and informal settlements in
100,000 cities”
7.5 billion Around half living in urban areas
Population
Timon McPhearson
Future Earth Urban KAN, Habitat III, 2016
Data sources: Up to 2015 OurWorldData series based on UN and HYDE. Projections for 2015 to
2100: UN Population Division (2015 – Medium Variant. The data visualization is taken from
OurWorldData.org. There you find the raw data and more visualizations on this topic.
20th November
Arctic sea ice
November rollercoaster
4th November
Paris Agreement
comes into force
8th November
Trump elected
14th November
Global Carbon
Budget released
14th November
Hottest year on record
Top emitters: fossil fuels and industry (absolute)
The top four emitters in 2015 covered 59% of global emissions
China (29%), United States (15%), EU28 (10%), India (6%)
Bunker fuels are used for international transport is 3.1% of global emissions.
Statistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals are 1.2% of global emissions.
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
Sources: Schellnhuber et al. (2016). Nature Climate Change
A “CARBON LAW”
Meeting the Paris Agreement
translates to
HALVING EMISSIONS
EVERY DECADE
to 2050, turning agriculture
from a carbon source to a carbon
sink, and maintaining, and creating
new carbon sinks
Science (24 March 2017)
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinhausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber
The Global Living Planet Index shows decline of
58% between 1970 and 2012
40% GLOBAL LAND SURFACE
USED FOR FOOD
70%ADDITIONAL CALORIES
NEEDED BY 2050Stockholm Resilience Centre
BY 2050CAN WE FEED 9BILLION PEOPLE
WITHOUT FURTHER DEFORESTATION?
YES
500 scenarios
Low meat/vegan/vegetarian diets
increase likelihood
Erb et al 2016 Nature Communications
BY 2050CAN WE FEED 9BILLION PEOPLE
AND REDUCE EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE?
Health, climate change and diets
Springmann, M., Charles, H., Godfray, J., Rayner, M., & Scarborough, P. (2016). Analysis and valuation of the health and climate change co-benefits of dietary change. PNAS , 113 (15).
Dietary shift to lower
meat consumption
could reduce
global mortality 6–10%
and food-related
greenhouse gas
emissions 29–70%
by 2050
Emerging
Issues
Air Pollution
Ocean Contamination
Epidemics
Refugees
Natural Disasters
Josh Tewksbury
State of the planet 2017

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Future Earth: State of the Planet 2017

  • 1. Josh Tewksbury State of the planet 2017
  • 2. Hans Rosling (July 1948- February 2017)
  • 3. 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 People in extreme poverty People not in extreme poverty Population(billions) The Anthropocene decline in poverty50%In the past 20 years Sources: Max Roser based on World Bank and Bourguignon and Morrissson 2002 Photo: Borneo © WWF-Canon
  • 4. Africa (383 million) Asia (327 million) South America (19 million) North America (13 million) 700+Million in extreme poverty in Africa and Asia Source: World Bank Photo: Borneo © WWF-Canon
  • 5. The Anthropocene decline in illiteracy75% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Illiterate world population Literate world population Population(%) In the past 30 years Sources: Literate World Population (data from OECD and UNESCO Photo: Borneo © WWF-Canon
  • 6. DoublingOf life expectancy Sources: James Riley for data 1990 and back, WHO and World Bank for later data (by Max Roser) Photo: Borneo © WWF-Canon 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Lifeexpectancyatbirth Global average life expectancy The Anthropocene
  • 7. Peak child We have past Sources: UNPD (Fertility) 2015 revision Photo: Borneo © WWF-Canon 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Childrenperwoman Absolute # of humans born / year peaked here (135 million) The Anthropocene
  • 8. peaceful We are more Sources: Human Security Project (PRIO data) – Max Roser Photo: Borneo © WWF-Canon 596 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 #ofannualwarbattledeaths Than we have been in 60+ years Conflict The Anthropocene
  • 9. Link between wealth and wellbeing (longevity) is not linear The Anthropocene
  • 10. www.worldsocialscience.org | #ChallengingInequalities The Anthropocene Economic & political power are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small number of people
  • 11. “There are 1 billion poor living in 1 million slums and informal settlements in 100,000 cities” 7.5 billion Around half living in urban areas Population Timon McPhearson Future Earth Urban KAN, Habitat III, 2016
  • 12. Data sources: Up to 2015 OurWorldData series based on UN and HYDE. Projections for 2015 to 2100: UN Population Division (2015 – Medium Variant. The data visualization is taken from OurWorldData.org. There you find the raw data and more visualizations on this topic.
  • 13.
  • 14. 20th November Arctic sea ice November rollercoaster 4th November Paris Agreement comes into force 8th November Trump elected 14th November Global Carbon Budget released 14th November Hottest year on record
  • 15. Top emitters: fossil fuels and industry (absolute) The top four emitters in 2015 covered 59% of global emissions China (29%), United States (15%), EU28 (10%), India (6%) Bunker fuels are used for international transport is 3.1% of global emissions. Statistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals are 1.2% of global emissions. Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
  • 16. Sources: Schellnhuber et al. (2016). Nature Climate Change
  • 17. A “CARBON LAW” Meeting the Paris Agreement translates to HALVING EMISSIONS EVERY DECADE to 2050, turning agriculture from a carbon source to a carbon sink, and maintaining, and creating new carbon sinks Science (24 March 2017) Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinhausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber
  • 18.
  • 19. The Global Living Planet Index shows decline of 58% between 1970 and 2012
  • 20. 40% GLOBAL LAND SURFACE USED FOR FOOD 70%ADDITIONAL CALORIES NEEDED BY 2050Stockholm Resilience Centre
  • 21. BY 2050CAN WE FEED 9BILLION PEOPLE WITHOUT FURTHER DEFORESTATION?
  • 22. YES 500 scenarios Low meat/vegan/vegetarian diets increase likelihood Erb et al 2016 Nature Communications
  • 23. BY 2050CAN WE FEED 9BILLION PEOPLE AND REDUCE EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE?
  • 24. Health, climate change and diets Springmann, M., Charles, H., Godfray, J., Rayner, M., & Scarborough, P. (2016). Analysis and valuation of the health and climate change co-benefits of dietary change. PNAS , 113 (15). Dietary shift to lower meat consumption could reduce global mortality 6–10% and food-related greenhouse gas emissions 29–70% by 2050
  • 26. Josh Tewksbury State of the planet 2017