Russia has experienced significant migration trends in recent decades. It is now the main recipient of immigrants in the CIS region, with over 11 million legal labor immigrants in 2012. However, migration has also created challenges, including pressure on major cities, potential for ethnic and religious conflicts, and social segregation. To address issues like brain drain and economic competition, Russia needs new policies to adapt to changes in population structure and support development in mono-cities.

1. Migration Trends in the Russian
Federation
在俄罗斯联邦的移民趋势
Dmitry Sanatov, Head of research project team,
Foundation Center for Strategic Research «North-West»
Economic Policy Dialogue among think tanks of emerging economies (Hainan, China)
November 3
2013

2. Russia is the main immigrant recipient on the territory of CIS
俄罗斯是独联体境内的主要移民收件人
World leaders by the number of labor
immigrants in 2012, million people
Number of RF labor immigrants who have legal
permission for work, thousand people
11 mln
The whole number of labor immigrants
in 2012 was 15,88 mln people
USA
США
45,8
РФ
Russia
2426
Germany
2224
Германия
Saudi Arabia
1717
Саудовская
Аравия
UAE
113
9,8
9,1
7,8
7,8
7,4
7,3
6,5 6,5
Source: Population Division of the UN Department of
Economic and Social Affairs
ОАЭ
Great Britain
1014
Великобритания
France
Canada
Франция
Канада
Australia
Spain
Австралия
1641
1340
1190
702
378
460
284
360
211
213
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Federal Migration Service
5

3. Main features of migration processes in Russia:
1. Russia completed its urban process later than other industrial
countries. Urban population in Russia is steadily growing. It’s likely to
decline only after 2030.
俄罗斯的迁移过程中的主要特点：
1。俄罗斯完成了城市的过程比其他工业国家。在俄罗斯城市的人口稳步增长。
这是2030年后可能只会下降。
108
In 1993-2010 share of
urban population in
Russia stabilized at
73% level
74,2
75,5
76,3
106,4
103,8
104,4
104,9
102,3
94,9
2012
80,6
2008
72,1
61,1
57,6
56,1
49,3
42,5
36,3
9,9
1897
15,7
1914
15,5
1917
39,1
38,7
38,2
37,2
37
36,6
16,5
1926
Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service
1939
1959
1970
1979
1989
2002
2010
2015
2020
2030
Million
people
2

4. Main features of migration processes in Russia:
2. Russia, as well as other countries, has overcome two demographic
transitions.
俄罗斯的迁移过程中的主要特点：
2。俄罗斯以及其他国家已经克服了两个人口转变。
Average marriage age is 25 years and over
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Male
Female
Average maternity age is 26-28 years
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990
2000
2010
Number
of
births
per
1000
women
15-­‐19
20-­‐24
25-­‐29
30-­‐34
35-­‐39
40-­‐44
45-­‐49
Informal birth rate
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Number
of
informal
births
до
18
18-­‐24
Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service
25-­‐34
Share
of
informal
births
35
и
более
4

5. Main features of migration processes in Russia:
3. Industrial urbanization in Russia during last Soviet period has lead to
the creation of a settlement system, where mono-cities’ network is a core
component
俄罗斯的迁移过程中的主要特点：
3。单城市的网络的核心组成部分
Number
of
mono-­‐ciHes
in
Russian
federal
districts
28
–
Far
East
28
58
The
most
number
of
mono-­‐ciHes
in
Russia
have
specializaHon
in
metallurgy,
industrial
engineering,
raw
materials
58
–
Central
region
8%
66
38
66
–
Siberian
38
–
North-­‐West
14
44
44
–
Ural
88
14
–
Southern
region
6
6
–
North
Caucasus
88
–
Privoghsky
region
4%
3%
23%
10%
11%
22%
19%
Metallurgy
Transport
and
equipment
producZon
Power
generaZon,
producZon
and
distribuZon
of
water
and
gaz
ExtracZon
of
raw
materials
Chemical
producZon
Average
distances
between
ciZes:
• Western
Siberia
–
114
km
• Far
East
-­‐
300
Paper
and
wood
producZon
Other
nonmetallurgy
materials
producZon
Others
3

6. Current migration issues in Russia:
1. West transit and pressure on agglomerations
在俄罗斯目前的迁移问题：
1。西过境和压力群
Demography and employment structure in the Leningrad region in
2012, million people
1,75
Income tax distribution between
regional and local budget
The Leningrad region doesn’t receive
taxes of more than 150 thousand people
working in St. Petersburg
Regional budget
Local budget
0,98
40%
0,37
60%
0,15
Population number Economically active Number of working Number of people
population
places
working in St.
Petersburg
250
1200
Moscow agglomeration
1000
200
800
600
from Moscow to the
Moscow region
400
from the Moscow
region to Moscow
from St.
Petersburg to the
Leningrad region
150
from the Leningrad
region to St.
Petersburg
100
50
200
0
St. Petersburg agglomeration
1990-s
2000-s
0
2000-s
6

7. Current migration issues in Russia:
2. In some cases uncontrolled migration became a source of ethnic and
other conflicts
在俄罗斯目前的迁移问题：
2。在某些情况下，不受控制的迁移已经成为一个民族和其他冲突源
Number of offences in Russia, conducted
by foreigners, 2012
Average RF immigrant portrait
120
100
Women
10%
26%
30-38 years
80
Christianity13%
9834
the Moscow
region
Moscow
60
40
Men
74%
90%
18-29 years
85%
22282
8434
Moslem
St. Petersburg
other regions
2100
20
0
Sex
Age
Religion
7

8. Current migration issues in Russia:
3. Migration leads to strengthen social segregation. This could further
lead to creation of special migration ghetto zones
在俄罗斯目前的迁移问题：
3。迁移导致加强社会隔离。这可能进一步导致创造特殊迁移贫民窟区
Average RF labor immigrants monthly wages, 2012
Amounts of money, sent by RF labor immigrants to native
countries per month, 2012
74%
15%
under $700
75%
11%
under $1000
over $1000
15%
under $500
10%
under $800
under $1000
8

9. Current migration issues in Russia:
4. There is a gap between educational and cultural level of native
Russians and immigrants
在俄罗斯目前的迁移问题：
4。有一个教育和文化层面，俄罗斯本地人和移民之间的差距
RF immigration structure, %
Educational level of Russians and immigrants, %
17,3
19,4
Professional
secondary
educaHon
PopulaZon
of
the
RF
2006-­‐2010
Higher
educaHon
23
31
Labor
immigrants
14,
3
23,
1
Republic
of
Kazakhstan
Middle
Asia
Caucasus
24,1
39,2
European
countries
9

10. Migration calls to Russia
迁移呼吁俄罗斯
1. Risk
of
brain
drain
and
acHve
youth
migraHon
to
other
countries
while
there
is
process
of
low
qualified
immigraHon
人才外流和活跃的青年移民到其它国家的风险，同时有低资质的移民过程
2. AdaptaHon
to
the
changes
of
ethnical
and
religious
populaHon
structure
适应民族和宗教人口结构的变化
3. CompeHHon
with
foreign
ciHes
for
labor
force
与国外城市劳动力的竞争
4. New
agenda
for
mono-­‐ciHes
(sHmulate
to
relocate
populaHon
from
places
where
it
is
impossible
to
create
new
jobs)
单城市的新议程（刺激人口迁往地方是不可能创造新的就业机会）
5. New
tax
policy
for
agglomeraHons
新的税收政策群

11. Foundation Center for Strategic Research “North-West” – independent
think tank
Thank you for your attention!
Address:
26
line,
VI,
15-­‐2-­‐A,
St.Petersburg,
Russia,
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Phone
(fax):
+7
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0320,
380
0321
E-­‐mail:
mail@csr-­‐nw.ru
Materials
are
available
at
www.csr-­‐nw.ru
13