Melissa Leach - Imagining and negotiating pathways in an age of anxiety and incomplete knowledge
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Talk by Melissa Leach, STEPS Director, at the conference ‘Modelling Futures: Understanding risk and uncertainty’ on 28-30 September. http://www.crassh.cam.ac.uk/events/1133
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Top of FormPresentation Research in the Social SciencesSoc.docx
Top of Form
Presentation
Research in the Social Sciences
Social science, including academic subjects such as criminal justice and homeland security, focuses on studying human interaction between individuals, groups, or societies. Social science is about questioning the world around you by examining cultures, societies, economies, politics, behaviors, and any assortment of social interaction. This range in scope is emphasized by a number of academic disciplines such as anthropology, political science, and sociology. Researchers within social science fields consider how individual or group actions impact their society.
Compare, for a moment, social sciences to the physical sciences such as physics or biology. In studying physics, one can grasp how an aircraft can stay in the air. A physicist recognizes the physical forces that impact the aircraft’s flight and can predict what impact these elements will have on the aircraft's continued operation. In understanding the science behind flight, physicists can also estimate or predict what conditions will negatively impact a journey. The aircraft’s design, improvements, and success are all founded on proven mathematical principles. There are also mechanical principles that determine how it must be maintained, fueled, and operated. There are engineering designs with elements that can be measured, tested, and proven reliable. With the knowledge and information these hard sciences provide, practitioners and researchers alike can make better predictions about what designs, models, or activities will be successful.
Meanwhile, society has no rules to explain why things may or may not happen. All who are a part of a society represent living, dynamic organisms. There is form and function in a society to a degree, yet the whole can theoretically be impacted by any single element. Societies and social relationships maintain customs, accepted norms, traditions, economic exchanges, and communications within various social constructs. Social sciences examine countless activities occurring in an ever-changing environment.
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· Having no transportation
· Fearing their homes will be looted
· Believing the storm’s intensity was exaggerated
· Not comprehending what a hurricane can potentially do to them
· Dealing with many storms in the past
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Top of FormPresentation Research in the Social SciencesSoc.docx
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A selection of slides with some definitions from A dictionary of epidemiology
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- 1. Imagining and negotiating pathways in an age of anxiety and incomplete knowledge Melissa Leach CRASSH Conference Cambridge, September 2010
- 2. Complex global dynamics An age of anxiety and incomplete knowledge A search for ‘solutions’
- 14. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes Dealing with incomplete knowledge RISK AMBIGUITY UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE
- 15. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes Dealing with incomplete knowledge In narratives about H1N1 RISK AMBIGUITY UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE ostensibly definitive quantitative probabilistic models of risk pandemic or not? impacts of veterinary controls? behaviour change in crisis? interplay in viral ecology / genetics immuno -compromisation ? define ‘outbreak’: distributional consequences? mortality / morbidity? vulnerable groups? economic costs? livelihoods impacts? new strains of the virus? unexpected transmission vectors? unanticipated health outcomes? complex social interactions? entirely novel pathogens?
- 16. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes Dimensions of incomplete knowledge in narratives about GM crops in African settings RISK AMBIGUITY UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE specified probabilities of Identified potential harms (toxicity, genetic escape) unknown probabilities of identified potential harms in particular African agro-ecological and social contexts different terms of discussion; e.g. production vs. political economy or gender relations unforeseen impacts; e.g. synergistic effects between seeds and diverse bodies/ environments
- 17. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE decision rules aggregative analysis deliberative process political closure reductive modeling stochastic reasoning rules of thumb insurance ` evidence-basing agenda-setting horizon scanning transdisciplinarity liability law harm definitions indicators / metrics institutional remits Powerful pressures to ‘close down’ towards risk