2. More Clicks, Less Bricks?
The Local Data Company
Matthew Hopkinson
#HighStreet
26th February 2014

3. People are supposed to fear the
unknown, but ignorance is bliss when
knowledge is so damn frightening.”
‘
Laurell K. Hamilton, The Laughing Corpse

4. Today’s Agenda
Current state of GB Retail
Role of Data
National, Regional and Sectors Insights
Partnership Insights
Summary
Q&A

5. Methodology
• 7,000+ locations
• Field visited
• 60,000 visits a month
Seeing is believing!

6. NATIONWIDE
COVERAGE
BUSINESSES TRACKED
554,096
LOCATIONS TRACKED
7,000
TOWNS
RETAIL PARKS
SHOPPING CENTRES
850 1,124 897

7. Some of the clients who We Service

8. Consumer Confidence
Source GfK

9. Media Interest

10. High Street Reviews

11. Breaking News!
✚
748 stores
459 stores
-3% (22 store closures)
-8% (40 store closures)
42% on High Street
72% on Retail Parks

12. All Change!

13. The car is KING!

14. Change Afoot!
FAILURES
CLOSURES
OPENINGS

15. Destination v Decimation

16. Vacancy rates

17. North v South
Greater
London

18. 2013-12
2013-10
2013-08
2013-06
2013-04
2013-02
2012-12
2012-10
2012-08
2012-06
2012-04
2012-02
2011-12
2011-10
2011-08
2011-06
2011-04
2011-02
2010-12
2010-10
2010-08
2010-06
2010-04
2010-02
2009-12
2009-10
2009-08
2009-06
2009-04
2009-02
2008-12
GB Shop Vacancy 2008-2013
15,0
14,5
14,0
13,5
13,0
12,5
12,0
11,5
11,0
10,5
10,0
9,5
9,0
8,5
8,0
7,5
7,0
6,5
6,0
5,5
5,0
4,5
4,0

19. 2013 GB Retail & Leisure (All) Vacancy Rates
12,60
12,50
12,40
12,30
12,20
12,10
12,00
11,90
2013-01 2013-02 2013-03 2013-04 2013-05 2013-06 2013-07 2013-08 2013-09 2013-10 2013-11 2013-12

20. National Vacancy Rates

21. Regional Change 2012-2013

22. Vacancy – GB’s Worst Performing Towns
Region
Area
2013 Vacancy
2012 Vacancy
Change
North West
West End, Morecambe
32.9
27.2
5.8
Wales
Newport, Monmouthshire
28.9
27.3
1.6
North West
Bolton
27.8
21.6
6.2
North East
Hartlepool
27.7
27.3
0.3
North West
Bootle
27.0
23.3
3.7
North West
Church Street, Runcorn
26.8
27.6
-0.8
West Midlands
Walsall
26.7
25.4
1.3
West Midlands
West Bromwich
26.6
24.3
2.3
North East
Stockton-on-Tees
26.3
23.7
2.6
North West
Eccles
25.8
26.1
-0.2

23. Vacancy- GB’s Best Performing Towns
Region
Area
2013 Vacancy
2012 Vacancy
Change
Greater London
Highgate
0.0
4.7
-4.7
East Midlands
Eastgate, Lincoln
1.3
2.6
-1.3
South East
Molesey Lock
1.4
4.3
-2.9
Greater London
Barking Road West
1.6
3.3
-1.7
Greater London
St. John’s Wood
1.6
4.0
-2.4
Greater London
Askew Road, Hammersmith
1.8
5.2
-3.4
West Midlands
Shirley Street, Solihull
1.8
3.4
-1.7
West Midlands
Thornton Heath
1.8
5.1
-3.3
North East
Woodford Green
1.8
5.3
-3.5
North West
Debden
2.0
0.0
2.0

24. Town Centre Shop Vacancy – 3 year change
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
More than - Neg 10-19%
20%
Neg 5-9%
Neg 4-1%
Flat 0%
Pos 1 - 4%
Pos 5-9%
10-20%
Pos 20% +

25. North v South Divide?

26. Regional Groupings 2013 v 2012
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
North (NW, NE, Y&H)
Midlands & East
South (SW & SE)
London

27. Averages - NW v SE
North West Average Vacancy %
17.4
North West Average Retail Park Vacancy %
10.1
North West Average Shopping Centre Vacancy % 19.3
South East Average Vacancy %
11.8
South East Average Retail Park Vacancy %
6.3
South East Average Shopping Centre Vacancy %
14.3

28. The Ruling Class?
Westfield London
Braehead
Metro Centre
Bullring
Meadowhall
Trinity Leeds
Trafford Centre
Liverpool One
St David's Cardiff
0%
5%
10%
Shop Vacancy Rates
15%
20%
25%

29. Brands
As a consumer, you want to associate with brands
whose powerful presence creates a halo effect
that rubs off on you.
Tom Peters
The way customers relate to brands and how
profit is generated has changed so dramatically
almost every professional is being challenged to
reconsider what they do in order to stay relevant.
Simon Mainwaring

30. Openings & Closures

31. Openings & Closures (Net Change) 2009-2013
3,00
2,50
2,00
1,50
1,00
All
0,50
0,00
2009
-0,50
-1,00
2010
2011
2012
2013

32. Openings & Closures (Net Change) 2009-2013
5,00
4,00
3,00
2,00
Multiples
1,00
Independents
0,00
2009
-1,00
-2,00
-3,00
2010
2011
2012
2013

33. The last 3 years – top 650 Town Centres
143,960 openings and closures
Net Change %
Units Net Change
Comparison
-4.32
-3,083
Convenience
5.10
830
Leisure
2.29
1,200
Service
3.84
1,993
Total
0.49
940
BUT
Multiples = -1,741 (-2.35%)
Independents = +2,681 (+2.28)

34. Risers 2013 GB wide

35. Fallers 2013 GB Wide

36. Footfall attractors – Fashion & Clothing

37. Footfall attractors – anchor tenants

38. Footfall attractors – new kids on the block!

39. Scotland’s Towns – Case study
Partner research with University of Stirling (Professor Leigh Sparks) in
2013 on top 100 towns.
What is the retail scale and make-up of Scottish towns and cities?
2. How variable are Scottish towns and cities in their retailing?
3. How significant is retail vacancy?
4. Can we explain some of the patterns found?

40. Retail Types: BMGC (Booze, Money,
Gambling, Charity)
City
Off
Pawnbroker Bookmaker Cheque
Licence
Centre
Charity Index
Shop
Aberdeen
0.16
0.08
1.47
0.41
2.61
4.73
Dundee
0.34
0.46
1.38
0.46
1.84
4.48
Stirling
0.0
0.98
1.72
0.49
0.49
3.68
Inverness
0.62
0.42
1.25
0.62
0.21
3.12
Perth
0.37
0.19
1.12
0.56
0.19
2.42
Glasgow
0.2
0.26
0.73
0.18
0.35
1.72
Edinburgh
0.44
0.1
0.49
0.13
0.28
1.44
Source:LDC and University of Stirling

41. “Change is inevitable. Change is
constant.”
Benjamin Disraeli

42. Best Total Diversity
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Town
Diversity Index
0.87
Central London
0.61
Edinburgh
0.59
Brighton and Hove
0.55
Glasgow
0.53
Nottingham
0.51
Bath
0.51
York
0.50
Bristol
0.50
West London
0.49
Norwich
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Town
Manchester
Derby
Exeter
Leicester
Cheltenham
Tunbridge Wells
Scarborough
Liverpool
Harrogate
Salisbury
Diversity Index
0.49
0.47
0.47
0.46
0.46
0.46
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.44

43. Worst Total Diversity
1
2
Town
Milton Keynes
Ilford
3
4
5
6
7
Wood Green
Oldham
Weymouth
Peckham
Stockton-on-Tees
8
9
10
St. Helens
Wigan
Scunthorpe
Diversity Index
0.23
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
11
12
Town
Luton
Burnley
13
14
15
16
17
Torquay
Walthamstow
Sutton
Brixton
Richmond, London
18
19
20
Putney
Paisley
Rugby
Diversity Index
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.29

44. Milliband Index

45. Summary
•
More business failures/closures to come = more empty premises
•
Significant variance in performance by location and type
•
NEW AGE Technology is driving consolidation
•
OLD AGE Property costs deterring occupation
•
‘All inclusive’ locations will get the consumers
•
What can be done with the 15% + vacancy locations?
•
Knowledge and understanding of national trends applied locally is key
•
Ignore consumers at your peril!

46. “To open a shop is easy, to
keep it open is an art.”
Chinese Proverb

47. BRINGING DATA ALIVE!
Thank you!
matthew@localdatacompany.com
@matthehopkinson
(0) 20 3111 4393
www.localdatacompany.com