Frank QuixPresents:(R)evolution
Retail is on fire and impacted by:TechnologyEconomyPeople
The second major shift in retailPhysical Digital MashupSelf-serviceDr. Anton DreesmannDarrell Rigby
The promise of the silver generation 65+ age grows 10 times faster than population Best marriage of time and money avail...
Single household is the new norm Number of single households >50% in big cities Young female high educated consumersThus...
Urbanisation: big cities will grow Big cities, more and young people Shrinking and aging rural areas Target groups will...
Retail business model opportunities New target groups, new approach 24/7 consumers Customization and co-creation
The Food and Non Food retail disparityFoodNonFood951001051101151202004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Bron: CBS, b...
951001051101151202004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No Trust, No Glory-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-5051015Consumerconfid...
The golden retail rule: grow!7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012- 3%Bron: CBS, bewerking Q&ANon...
The golden retail rule: grow!7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012+ 6%- 3%Bron: CBS, bewerking Q&...
The golden retail rule: grow!- 3%+ 6%7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012+ 3%Bron: CBS, bewerkin...
The golden retail rule: grow!- 3%+ 6%+ 3%7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012- 5%Bron: CBS, bewe...
The golden retail rule: grow!- 3%+ 6%+ 3%- 5%7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012- 12%Bron: CBS,...
Non FoodThe golden retail rule: grow!- 3%+ 6%Fashion+ 3%Shoes- 5%Electronics- 12%DIY7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 ...
7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012In real terms all Non Food markets decline- 3%+ 6%+ 3%- 5%- ...
Retail business model opportunities Value retailing Pricing differently New business models
All consumers are techsaviesBron: Mikogo.com, bewerking Q&A20129.000.000.000 mobileconnected devices1-2mobiledevicesperper...
The techrevolution just started2020 6-7mobiledevicesperperson50.000.000.000 mobileconnected devicesBron: Mikogo.com, bewer...
1.000.000.000user11.000 messagesper secondBron: Mikogo.com, dutchcowboys.com, bewerking Q&A200420122007201220104.000 tweet...
0501001502002503002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120510152025303540452005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012non food...
0204060801002011 2012 2013* (ING)6,04,43,2Total non foodsalesOnline salesshare* Prognose INGN=118(billion euor)45,643,942,...
Non food10% - 12%Fashion9% - 11%Living2% - 3%Electronics20% - 22%Shoes10% - 12%Online retail 2012 (incl. cross channel)Bro...
Retail business model opportunities Inline retailing Click & Collect Social, Local, Mobiel (SoLoMo)
What happend in the meanwhileFashion Shoes DIY Living ElectronicsNon Food
- 13%Floor productivity is declining7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Bron: CBS, Locatus, bewe...
Floor productivity is declining7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012- 13%- 13%Non FoodFashionBron...
7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Floor productivity is declining- 13%- 13%- 11%Non FoodFashio...
7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Floor productivity is declining- 11%- 13%- 13%+ 0%Non FoodFa...
7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Floor productivity is declining+ 0%- 11%- 13%- 13%- 23%Non F...
7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Floor productivity is declining+ 0%- 11%- 13%- 23%- 13%- 19%...
- 23%- 19%- 13%- 13%- 11%+ 0%7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Floor productivity is declining...
- 13%Online sales is adding another 10% declineNon Food totalBron: CBS, Locatus, Thuiswinkel.org, inschatting Q&A758085909...
 Don’t wait for the past, it will never returnEOPLECONOMYECHNOLOGYNot adapting to new normal is suicide Stagflation is t...
New business models, new business rules
New business models, new business rules Need polarization Matching the local (service) demands New and more formats Ne...
CONOMY: Value retail is the name of the game Price polarization Discount is not for the poor Every retail segment its o...
 Channel polarization From offline to online to inline retail Online as sales engine The total physical virtual mash u...
Welcome in the era of Customer ControlSmileTeaseOverwhelmReviewExperience
Retail reality
Retail reality
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Retail reality

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Dutch retail is under presure. this presentation gives a perfect summary of the current situation. The presentation is based on the Q&A Research & Consultancy PET model. What is the impact of People, Economy and Technology on Retail and Retail Real Estate. If you would like to share the content of this presentation with your clients of relations just contact us via info@qanda.nl.

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Retail reality

  1. 1. Frank QuixPresents:(R)evolution
  2. 2. Retail is on fire and impacted by:TechnologyEconomyPeople
  3. 3. The second major shift in retailPhysical Digital MashupSelf-serviceDr. Anton DreesmannDarrell Rigby
  4. 4. The promise of the silver generation 65+ age grows 10 times faster than population Best marriage of time and money availableBut…. Diminishing pension plans Shrinking working population16%2012204026%Bron: CBS, bewerking Q&A
  5. 5. Single household is the new norm Number of single households >50% in big cities Young female high educated consumersThus…. Best target group ever for retailBron: CBS, bewerking Q&A37%201243%2040
  6. 6. Urbanisation: big cities will grow Big cities, more and young people Shrinking and aging rural areas Target groups will differ by locationBron: CBS, bewerking Q&A50607080901001101202010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040+ 16%- 40%Big citiesRural
  7. 7. Retail business model opportunities New target groups, new approach 24/7 consumers Customization and co-creation
  8. 8. The Food and Non Food retail disparityFoodNonFood951001051101151202004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Bron: CBS, bewerking Q&A
  9. 9. 951001051101151202004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No Trust, No Glory-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-5051015ConsumerconfidenceFoodNonFoodBron: CBS, bewerking Q&A
  10. 10. The golden retail rule: grow!7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012- 3%Bron: CBS, bewerking Q&ANon Food
  11. 11. The golden retail rule: grow!7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012+ 6%- 3%Bron: CBS, bewerking Q&ANon FoodFashion
  12. 12. The golden retail rule: grow!- 3%+ 6%7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012+ 3%Bron: CBS, bewerking Q&ANon FoodFashionShoes
  13. 13. The golden retail rule: grow!- 3%+ 6%+ 3%7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012- 5%Bron: CBS, bewerking Q&ANon FoodFashionShoesElectronics
  14. 14. The golden retail rule: grow!- 3%+ 6%+ 3%- 5%7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012- 12%Bron: CBS, bewerking Q&ANon FoodFashionShoesElectronicsDIY
  15. 15. Non FoodThe golden retail rule: grow!- 3%+ 6%Fashion+ 3%Shoes- 5%Electronics- 12%DIY7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012- 13%LivingBron: CBS, bewerking Q&A
  16. 16. 7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012In real terms all Non Food markets decline- 3%+ 6%+ 3%- 5%- 12%- 13%Bron: CBS, bewerking Q&ANon FoodFashionShoesElectronicsDIYLiving+ 14%7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Inflation
  17. 17. Retail business model opportunities Value retailing Pricing differently New business models
  18. 18. All consumers are techsaviesBron: Mikogo.com, bewerking Q&A20129.000.000.000 mobileconnected devices1-2mobiledevicesperperson
  19. 19. The techrevolution just started2020 6-7mobiledevicesperperson50.000.000.000 mobileconnected devicesBron: Mikogo.com, bewerking Q&A
  20. 20. 1.000.000.000user11.000 messagesper secondBron: Mikogo.com, dutchcowboys.com, bewerking Q&A200420122007201220104.000 tweets persecond2012The newer the medium the faster the growth
  21. 21. 0501001502002503002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120510152025303540452005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012non food salesgrowth online(cumulative)Online growth% Y toY+ 153%Online Non Food growth slows downBron: Thuiswinkel.org, bewerking Q&A12%
  22. 22. 0204060801002011 2012 2013* (ING)6,04,43,2Total non foodsalesOnline salesshare* Prognose INGN=118(billion euor)45,643,942,8Non Food retailchains on parBron: CBS, ING, Q&A7% 10% 14%2011 2012 2013*
  23. 23. Non food10% - 12%Fashion9% - 11%Living2% - 3%Electronics20% - 22%Shoes10% - 12%Online retail 2012 (incl. cross channel)Bron: Thuiswinkel.org, ABN AMRO, ING, GFK, inschatting Q&A
  24. 24. Retail business model opportunities Inline retailing Click & Collect Social, Local, Mobiel (SoLoMo)
  25. 25. What happend in the meanwhileFashion Shoes DIY Living ElectronicsNon Food
  26. 26. - 13%Floor productivity is declining7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Bron: CBS, Locatus, bewerking Q&ANon Food
  27. 27. Floor productivity is declining7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012- 13%- 13%Non FoodFashionBron: CBS, Locatus, bewerking Q&A
  28. 28. 7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Floor productivity is declining- 13%- 13%- 11%Non FoodFashionShoesBron: CBS, Locatus, bewerking Q&A
  29. 29. 7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Floor productivity is declining- 11%- 13%- 13%+ 0%Non FoodFashionShoesElectronicsBron: CBS, Locatus, bewerking Q&A
  30. 30. 7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Floor productivity is declining+ 0%- 11%- 13%- 13%- 23%Non FoodFashionShoesElectronicsDIYBron: CBS, Locatus, bewerking Q&A
  31. 31. 7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Floor productivity is declining+ 0%- 11%- 13%- 23%- 13%- 19%Non FoodFashionShoesElectronicsDIYLivingBron: CBS, Locatus, bewerking Q&A
  32. 32. - 23%- 19%- 13%- 13%- 11%+ 0%7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Floor productivity is decliningNon FoodFashionShoesElectronicsDIYLivingInflation+ 14%Bron: CBS, Locatus, bewerking Q&A7080901001101201302004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  33. 33. - 13%Online sales is adding another 10% declineNon Food totalBron: CBS, Locatus, Thuiswinkel.org, inschatting Q&A75808590951001051101152004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012- 21%Non Foodcorrected foronline sales- 23%
  34. 34.  Don’t wait for the past, it will never returnEOPLECONOMYECHNOLOGYNot adapting to new normal is suicide Stagflation is the new word, the crisis is over Internet is not a hype, its part of every days’ life
  35. 35. New business models, new business rules
  36. 36. New business models, new business rules Need polarization Matching the local (service) demands New and more formats New and hybrid retail functions Business rules: more differentiation, more costsfrom sales/m² to customer valuefrom transaction fee to service feeEOPLE: One size fits all is gone
  37. 37. CONOMY: Value retail is the name of the game Price polarization Discount is not for the poor Every retail segment its own supermarket Luxury has its own dynamics Business rules: low price, high volume, low marginhigh price, low volume, high marginNew business models, new business rules
  38. 38.  Channel polarization From offline to online to inline retail Online as sales engine The total physical virtual mash up Business rules: more sales, more costsECHNOLOGY: Cross channel is the strategyNew business models, new business rules
  39. 39. Welcome in the era of Customer ControlSmileTeaseOverwhelmReviewExperience

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