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Moneycation
Published by Moneycation™
Newsletter: March 31, 2015
Volume 3, Issue 7
Managing education costs
Economically, education fuels innovation and maintains vital
knowledge transfer between generations. It also generates economic
growth via bi-products other than innovation such as international revenue from coveted
educational programs and industry development that ensures global competitive positioning. For
individuals, the net benefits are not quite so perky; just as industries will differ in how much
education they demand or need, students will also vary on how much benefit they derive from their
education.
These differences in results or advantages make the traditional educational investment proposition
subject to similar financial principles used in portfolio management such as risk control, asset
allocation and total investment. Naturally, cost is also a factor, and the lower the costs are, the less
impact a bad education investment decision will have, and the more benefit a good academic choice
will yield. This newsletter seeks to identify the costs of education, the causes for them and both
theoretical and applied solutions to managing those costs.
Tuition costs
The average cost of tuition at a four-year public university is rising at a rate of 13 percent per year
according to the U.S. Department of Education. However, over the last decade, the annual average
is closer to 6%. per Olivia Michael of CNBC. Even averaged out, that kind of cost increase far
exceeds the Department of Labor's Consumer Price Index of 1.7 percent year-over-year inflation
rate for August 2014, and the Social Security Administration's 3.6% cost of living adjustment for
2012 and 1.7% increase for 2014. The following graph illustrates how tuition costs far exceed other
household expenses and income growth and are attributable to specific reasons.
A part of the reason tuition rates are going up is because state funding has been cut according to a
report by Christine Armario of USA Today. Moreover, as subsidies decline and tuition rates rise,
student and parent debt also increases. Despite this, the Institute of Education Sciences forecasts
enrollment in post-secondary institutions will continue to rise from 18.1 million to 20.6 million
people between 2010 and 2020. Also per the IOES, total annual costs at four-year post-secondary
educational institutions average above $21,000 or more than $84,000 per degree.
The burden of increasing tuition is not great, but is not as bad as it seems per Jordan Weissmann of
The Atlantic. Specifically, Weissmann states tuition rates are a bad measure of cost inflation
because they do not include net costs i.e. costs after distribution of grants. Furthermore, the
increases in tuition, and the cost of tuition itself vary greatly across and within states. For example,
according to the Department of Education's College Affordability and Transparency Center, tuition
at California State University at Long Beach is $4,810 per year, whereas at the University of
California-Santa Cruz, it is $11,505.
Even if average tuition increases are being skewed up by a few statistical outlier states such as
California and Florida, there remains a very real problem of millions of graduates not finding jobs.
The U.S. Treasury Secretary recently announced that a two percent annual GDP growth is not
enough to tackle high unemployment per CNBC. This makes any increase in tuition an amortizable
expense after graduation, and that is not an educational incentive for the financial minded and
forward looking student.
From an economic perspective, the forecast for the benefits of education is also stifled by
educational administrative decisions. Furthermore, in an effort to stem the rising costs of tuition
some schools are even cutting back on educational program expenses. The net effect of these kind
of spending cuts is to lower the quality of education. For instance, the New York Times reports the
University of California is considering cutting back educational programs and summer classes to
compensate for lost state funding. This indicates a shrinking of educational options if not a decline
in the quality of education.
College enrollment
College enrollment in the United States has dropped and is expected to continue to fall. This has
caused some small liberal arts colleges such as Sweet Briar College in Virginia to close per
Business Insider. Moreover, this trend has benefitted less costly online institutions. In the 2012-
2013 academic year, the amount of new students reached a level of decline not seen since the 1990s
per the New York Times. Moreover, since college enrollment is a measure of educational prospects,
industry demand and consumer sentiment, the drop in higher education census data is also an
economic indicator.
So far, the decline in college enlistment has applied mostly to older students over the age of 25.
This means the correlation to the economy and clues about its meaning are more specific to that
particular demographic. Nevertheless, this trend reflects what is believed to be a counter-cyclical
market per an interview with Terry Hartle in The Atlantic magazine. According to Hartle, student
population typically rises during recessions and declines during better economic times. Hence, the
drop in college enrollment is thought to be a sign of economic improvement.
Even though past trends have linked economic conditions to student census data, this is not the only
statistical relationship present. More specifically, tuition rates, student debt and the job market are
also linked to school attendance. These additional variables muddy the statistical waters as an
improving economy is not necessarily mutually exclusive of things like a rising cost of seduction.
In other words, in terms of gross domestic product, the economy is capable of rising at the same
time as average national student-loan debt is rising.
The reason why education costs are also an important variable is because they indicate other
economic conditions such as government spending. For example, according to the , state
governments cut financial support for higher education by the Chico Enterprise Review, more than
28 percent between 2008-2012. This has influenced the cost-benefit ratio that students ideally
consider before choosing to apply for and attend college. For instance, with each extra dollar spent
on tuition, a corresponding rise in post-graduation income must be assessed to justify the higher
expense equally.
Additional consequences of rising tuition or a higher student debt burden also influence the housing
market, student debt repayment and even credit ratings. On the one hand, more employed people
who do not go to school are good for debt markets and economic growth. Yet, on the other had, a
study published by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau states a problem with affordable
private student-loan debt negatively impacted the lending market, which itself is also linked to
economic expansion.
If the decline in college enrollment is primarily due to an improvement in the job market, then the
declining figures suggest a positive economic trend. This is part of the story, and the question then
becomes how big a part is it? If fewer mature students means a mostly better job market and
economy, then it is positive data. However, if the shrinking numbers reflect something else, then the
trend might not be a repeat of past historical correlations, but rather a statistical medley of different
reasons such as state funding cuts, job outlooks and higher student debt.
Student debt
Student debt has surpassed total revolving credit in the United States. Total student debt is above
$1.3 trillion per the U.S Federal Reserve Board, and total consumer revolving credit such as credit
card debt was first exceeded by student debt in late 2011 per the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York. Several economic factors have also combined to compound the negative effects of this debt.
These additional variables have made student debt a problem for many new and old graduates alike.
Consumer Credit Outstanding
(In billions of dollars)
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Costs
According to the Institute for Education Sciences total education costs at four year institutions have
risen 600 percent since 1980. For example, total tuition, room and board at a public four year
academic institution cost $2,550 in 1980 using current dollars, but costs $15,014 in 2010 per the
IES. This large rise in the cost of tuition is partly accountable to inflation, yet when using constant
dollars adjusted to the Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, the tuition costs still more
than double over the same period of time.
Interest
Another factor that affects the cost of student debt is accrued interest. National Public Radio states
some school loans were subsidized via lower interest rates under the College Cost Reduction and
Access Act of 2007. That however, will change and lead to a doubling of interest rates if those tax
cuts expire. Both Republicans and Democrats in Congress have sought to extend this benefit, but
under different conditions that have led to political gridlock. As a result, and if the interest rate
subsidy is not extended, the cost of student debt will rise and put additional cost pressure on
students and graduates.
Size
The average size of student debt has also risen. By Q3, 2011 the average size of student debt was
$23,300 per the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Moreover, according to AlterNet, in 1992 the
average size of undergraduate debt was $9,200 less than half the $18,900 in 2002; similar trend is
demonstrated by the New York Times. It is evident the size of student debt has risen along with the
cost. However, the size of debt has not increased as fast as cost meaning students have been able to
keep their costs down over the historical period.
Employment
Each year a vast amount of new college students attend school with the hopes of becoming trained
for a career. The IES has stated 19.7 million students attended colleges in the United States in 2011.
However, if the job market is tight, these former students face the scenario of little or no income
with which to pay off their student loans as they become due. This causes debt to negatively
amortize in some cases which only amplifies the magnitude of student debt.
Despite the costs of education, there is substantial statistical data indicating that an education does
have its benefits. More specifically, the value of education and its financial pay back is evident in
household asset and income information i.e. those with a head of household with a college degree
have average family asset values over $200,000 more than those without. Since asset values show a
stronger advantage than income data in the second chart, the presence of greater debt such as
mortgages loans is a possible explanation for the discrepancy between asset and income related
advantages of college degrees.
US-PD
The graphs also illustrate another trend; in recent times, both mean asset values and mean income
returns associated with higher education have shown fatigue via downward sloping trend line. Since
this is also the case for those without degrees, a broader economic trend such as income inequality
or declining GDP growth are evident. Furthermore, in terms of income, the net financial advantage
of having a college degree has shrunk from approximately $80,000 in 2007 to about $65,000 by
2010.
Since the data is averaged out, specific market advantages of one field of education over another
are averaged out. In other words, the average advantage does not necessarily apply to all degrees
and professions or the sum total value of all degrees, is higher than the sum total of that for all other
educational categories combined.
US-PD
Marking education costs to market
At the undergraduate level, a degree in accounting costs the same as a degree in journalism. Yet,
according to the Daily Beast, a degree in Journalism is the most useless degree to have (wiping my
forehead, good thing I have two degrees in philosophy!) Having said that, there is a real societal
and economic issue underlying education costs. Basically, undergraduates are not getting an
education marked-to-market, which basically means the worth is not measured in terms of actual
value. The term mark-to-market is a typically applied to businesses, however the principles are
transferable to education. Before discussing reasons why mark to market should be applied to
degrees, the following brief video explains what mark to market is in more detail.
Skeptics would argue, if degree costs were measured in terms of worth, professors in low-valued
fields would not work because the pay is so low. Really. Has that been proven or is that just
speculation? From one perspective, life is more than just money, actually, much more than just
money and some might just be passionate to share some things in life regardless of compensation.
How do I know this? Quite simple, I've been writing for over five years and have a very low
income.
What if education were marked to market, what then? For starters, the debt to income ratio of
creative types who choose to learn about their fields would be more manageable. That isn't so bad is
it? Oh, actually it is for those who only care about money. For those people, who I relate to at a
substantial level, follow the smart money. Makes sense, following the arts is not typically being in
the path of smart money, unless it's coming from George Lucas, Jean-Louis Gauthier, or William
Shakespeare. So if you want to teach art and make a living, have a lot of faith in life. Otherwise,
focus on the money ball.
There is another real economic problem to marking education to market however. Specifically, if all
education costs were marked-to-market, only a handful of degrees would really be worth a great
deal. In such case, and assuming many degrees would be valued at far less than their actual present
costs, the economy would be affected significantly. For example, professors could be on food
stamps, perceptions of education could lower enrollment causing the revenue of educational
institutions, and the quality of educational programs to decline. If economics is the focal point, then
yes, that is a big deal; but what if it isn't?
Economic models are not fool proof, and the field of economics is one of many that applies
mathematical formulas to sociological constructs. This is why economics is not considered a
science, and what is not scientific is not absolute, therefore economics is not accurate. Also,
measuring worth is not quite that simple as a survey of the career paths of thousands of former
students would need to be tracked to create any sort of statistical significance to the valuations. It
would also be challenging to isolate the exact influence education has on wealth apart from other
variables such as luck, personality, motivation etc.
Even if economics were a science, which at basic levels it is, the scenario does not bode well
materially. For example, Jeremy Grantham, a well known fund manager, thinks "grandchildren
have no value" because of the unsustainable course of current economic practices according to John
Elkington of the U.K. Guardian. Indeed, Grantham has clearly illustrated that constant growth is
impossible with finite resources and demonstrates this using simple mathematics. This is reiterated
by Henry Blodget of Business Insider who summarizes Grantham's reasoning as essentially this:
"One cubic meter of possessions at a growth rate of 4.5 percent per year for 3000 years is equal to
10 to the 57th power."
The economy is a fragile mechanism that millions of people depend on to live and thrive. That's no
small potato in an existential world where 'actual living' is a legitimate concern. In such case,
humanity and common sense draw lines where economics might not. Specifically, minimum values
of educational worth similar to minimum wage of labor. Makes sense doesn't it? No degree is worth
nothing, and everybody is on Earth for a reason, so why stand in the way of life when it such a
good thing? In other words, undervaluing education is just as bad as overvaluing it because it slows
progress, and decreases the quality of education.
Financial instruments
All is not financially bleak for existing and prospective students. This is because education still has
value and numerous academic and financial options exist to both improve the return on educational
investment and mitigate the expense. In terms of financial instruments, three key opportunities
exist , but they require financial planning and fore site to achieve the best benefit. These are the
Coverdell Education Savings Account or CESA, the 529 College Savings Plan, also known as a
Qualified Tuition Programs.
Coverdell Education Savings Account (CESA)
In a sense, Coverdell Education Savings Accounts are similar to retirement accounts in the way
they work, except that they are used to finance education rather than post-employment or senior
living. CESAs only allow annual contributions of $2,000 per year, but currently have the potential
to grow tax free and provide tax-free financing so long as they are used to fund qualified academic
expenses such as tuition and student housing.
Depending on the assets invested in, the return on CESAs is likely to range anywhere between
negative and high performance. For example, money invested in a U.S Treasury Bond Fund is
likely to grow slower than a slightly more risky municipal or corporate bond fund. These financial
instruments are more likely to be a part of parental or family financial planning than a student
choice; largely because students are most likely to only start earning two or three years prior to
entering college, and even if they do earn, the chances of using that money responsibly is an
additional hurdle.
529 savings plan
Qualified tuition programs typically have a much higher contribution limit than Coverdell
Education Savings Accounts. The contributions are also tax deductible in many states, which makes
them a useful financial planning tool in tax minimization. As with CESAs, the money in 529 plans
must be used for specific educational purposes. These plans also allow for tax free earnings
accumulation and distribution under the plans conditions, which differ somewhat from CESAs. For
example, money within CESAs is required to be used by age 30, whereas there is no age limitation
on 529 plans.
Additional 529 plan considerations include “state tax parity”, which means contributions in one
state are recognized for tax deduction purposes in another state. According to FinAid, only a
handful of states including Pennsylvania, Maine, Missouri, Kansas and Arizona allow deductions
for out-of-state plans.
529 prepaid tuition plans
Additional potentially valuable college savings mechanisms are state-run prepaid tuition plans.
Only a handful of states maintain these, but independent 529 prepaid tuition plans help bridge the
gap. These financial instruments allow depositors to lock in tuition rates. Since tuition inflation has
historically been far in excess of regular consumer price inflation, this serves a particularly low-risk
and relatively high return on investment over time. A key to maximizing the financial benefit of
these plans is to invest in them early because a year's worth of tuition inflation is not as financially
advantageous as a decade or longer.
Degree selection
Another important consideration in the management of education costs is degree selection. This is
because post-education income is just as important as pre-educational financial planning. Degree
choice can mean the difference between an education that does nor, or barely pays off over a long
period of time, versus a return-on-investment that far exceeds the cost of education.
Prior to applying to and enrolling in college programs or vocational training, it is wise to
understand the market, personal interests and future economic conditions. Moreover, just because a
degree is in demand at present, does not necessarily mean that demand will be the same 4 years
later. What is more, some educational programs require continuing education due to rapid industry
evolution. An example of this is computer science that has developed at a great speed in the last two
decades. In other words, a degree in computer science from 1985 has far less value than a degree in
computer science from 2014.
Prepaid Tuition vs College Savings Plan Benefits
Knowing how to project and forecast educational demand is a useful technique to have when
reviewing both colleges and programs. Additionally, colleges themselves differ in educational
quality, and in some cases, this dramatically influences corporate hiring decisions. Things to review
when researching educational programs include personal interest, industry trends, educational value
and average graduating income.
Income tax and education
There are several ways education loans qualify for tax relief. Payments toward qualified student
debt are eligible for income tax credits or deduction with certain restrictions. For example, each tax
benefit has a maximum claimable amount between $2,000-$4,000. There also income caps that
prevent higher-income earners from claiming tax perks. To determine eligibility for education tax
incentives, an IRS Form 1098-T and wage or income statements such as the W-2 or 1099-MISC are
needed.
Student loan interest deduction
Individual tax filers with incomes below $75,000 and joint filers with incomes below $155,000 are
able to take this tax deduction; it can lower taxable income by up to $2,500 in the 2013 tax year.
This deduction is allowable for education loans not granted by employers or family members. The
rules for this deduction allow loan origination fees from qualified educational institutions to also be
classified as interest. Voluntary interest payments are also able to be included in the total interest
deducted. Interest paid to institutions is required to be reported on Form 1098-E, which should be
sent to the payee for each year of interest payment.
Tuition and fees deduction
This tax deduction reduces taxable income by as much as $4,000. The deduction can be taken
without having to file a Schedule A or itemized deductions with the IRS. This tax incentive is
allowable when the educational costs are for an institution that participates in a federal student aid
program. However, nonprofit or private schools may also qualify. Individual tax filers with incomes
above $80,000 and joint filers with incomes above $160,000 are disqualified from taking this
deduction.
American opportunity tax credit
The American Opportunity Tax Credit allows tax filers to claim up to $2,500 off taxes due. The
credit cannot be taken in conjunction with the lifetime learning credit. Unlike the lifetime learning
credit, there is a four year maximum for which the benefit can be claimed. If taking this credit
creates a negative tax balance, then up to 40 percent of the credit or $1,000 may be refunded to the
tax filer. In essence, this credit can actually increase annual income because of the refund potential.
Individual tax payers with a MAGI above $90,000, and joint filers with MAGIs above $180,000 are
excluded from this benefit.
Lifetime learning tax credit
The Lifetime Learning Credit has an income tax cap that determines eligibility. Specifically, the
credit is reduced for single tax filers with modified adjusted gross incomes, or MAGIs, between
$53,000-$63,000. If individual income is above $63,000, then the tax filer does not qualify for it.
For married tax filers who do so jointly, the phase out income range is $107,000-$127,000. Unlike
the American opportunity credit, this tax benefit of up to $2,000 does not qualify for refund of
negative tax due balances.
These tax benefits are good for tax filers who earn enough income to make substantial payments on
student debt. Unemployed and part-time workers are less likely to be able to claim the maximum
credit and deduction, especially if they have no other source of income. Nevertheless, taxable
income and tax can be lowered by a substantial amount when using the best allowable benefit. The
IRS states neither of the aforementioned tax credits are usable alongside the tuition and fees
deduction. These kinds of tax perks potentially eliminate or reduce tax filing rate for each year they
are claimed.
Repayment
Education legislation makes college affordable in the sense that if it cannot be paid back, then the
debt is forgiven, eventually and if specific annual paperwork filing requirements are met on federal
student loans. More specifically, some federal education loans can be paid back using an income
contingent repayment plan; this is one of several plans and may or may not be suitable based on
individual financial scenarios. Nevertheless, carefully considering these payment plan options is an
important step in the management of federal education loans. The U.S. Department of Education
screenshot below illustrates the different types of repayment plans.
Federal Student Loan Repayment Plans
Source: U.S. Department of Education; US-PD
Although including education loans in bankruptcy is considered difficult in the case of federal debt,
this is not necessarily the case for private loans or revolving credit used to pay student debt. If one
qualifies for bankruptcy, especially Chapter 7, then including these other forms of student debt
and/or federal debt paid for using these alternative instruments in a bankruptcy filing is one way to
help reduce an overall debt burden.
Conclusion
There is no doubt about college being expensive. What there is contention about is how valuable an
education is and how much it should cost. This is because of many factors including a wide range
of vocational and academic programs, a vast selection of colleges with a wide range of costs and
the benefit of education to students entering the job market. In terms of cost, there are ways to
manage them in such a way as to minimize expense and out-of-pocket payments regardless of
students' particular subject choice of education.
Not taking advantage of the numerous financial instruments, techniques and cost-saving options
available to potential and existing students is financial negligence in effect. This is because the net
financial and opportunity cost of education rises with each missed expense lowering option. Using
college savings plans, tax benefits, in-state tuition rates lower the costs and employment, living at
home and qualifying for grants or scholarships help reduce the costs even more. After this,
choosing a degree in high demand helps ensure any remaining costs get paid off quicker.
Although education reform could in theory, mark the price of education to market, the reality is that
the disruption to a very large industry might be too much for the economy to bear. Smaller scale
mark-to-market methods are possible, but using the existing methods and techniques for earning,
paying for and benefitting from an education should provide students with considerable advantage
of those that do not make use of these tools and approaches to the financing of academics.
Sources:
1. “CNBC”; How to Ease The Burden of Student Debt; Olivia Michael; January 18, 2015
2. “U.S. Department of Education”; College Affordability and Transparency Center
3. "United States Department of Labor”; Consumer Price Index
4. “Social Security Administration”; Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA); 2015
5. “USA Today”; Average Cost of Four-Year University Up 15%; Christine Armario; June 13, 2012
6. “National Center for Education Statistics”; Tuition Costs of Colleges and Universities
7. “The Atlantic”; How in The World Did College Costs Rise 15% in Only 2 Years; Jordan Weismann; June 13, 2012
8. “CNBC”; Geithner: 2% Growth Rate Won't Cut It on Jobs; Reuters; June 13, 2012
9. “New York Times”; California Cuts Threaten the Status of Universities”; Jennifer Medina; June 1, 2012
10. “New York Times”; College Enrollment Falls as Economy Recovers”; Richard Perez-Pena; July 25, 2013
11. “The Atlantic”; Why Fewer Students in College is Good for the Economy; Amanda Erickson; September 14, 2013
12. “Federal Reserve Bank of New York”; Grading Student Loans; Meta Brown, Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee,
Maricar Mabutas and Wilbert van der Klaauw; March 5, 2012
13. “Consumer Financial Protection Bureau”; Student Debt Swells, Federal Student Loans Now Top a Trillion; Rohit
Chopra; July 17, 2013
14. “Institute for Education Sciences”; Tuition Costs of Colleges and Universities; Fast Facts; 2011-2012
15. “U.S. Department of Labor”; CPI Inflation Calculator
16. “National Public Radio”; Student Loan Debt Exceeds One Trillion Dollars; Melissa Block; April 24 2012
17. “Alternet”; After College, A Life Without Debt; Jeffrey Williams/Dissent Magazine; August 16, 2006
18. “The New York Times”; Student Debt at Colleges and Universities Across The Nation; Degrees of Debt; May 12,
2012
19. “Institute for Education Sciences”; Back to School Statistics
20. “The Daily Beast”; 20 Most Useless College Degrees
21. “The Guardian”; Your Grandchildren Have No Value; John Elkington; February 29, 2012
22. “Business Insider”; We Can't Keep Growing Like This; Henry Blodget; February 12, 2012
23. “U.S. Internal Revenue Service”; Form 1098-T Tuition Statement
24. “U.S. Internal Revenue Service”; Form 1098-E Student Loan Interest Statement
25. “U.S. Internal Revenue Service”; American Opportunity Tax Credit
26. “U.S. Internal Revenue Service”; Lifetime Learning Credit
27. “CNN”; Obama Proposes Scaling Back 529 College Savings Plans; Jeanne Sahadi; January 20, 2015
28. “CNBC”; How to Ease the Burden of Student Debt; Olivia Michael; January 18, 2015
29. “U.S. Internal Revenue Service”; Qualified Tuition Program; Publication 970
30. “U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission”; Introduction to 529 Plans
31. “Saving For College LLC”; Can I Have a 529 Plans From Multiple States?
32. “FinAid”; State Tax Deductions for 529 Contributions
33. “New York Times”; A Quiet Revolution in Helping Lift the Burden of Student Debt;; Kevin Carey; January 25,
2015
34. “U.S. News and World Report”; Avoid These Common Prepaid Tuition Plan Mistakes; Reyna Gobel; July 24, 2013
35. “FinAid”; Section 529 Plans
36. “Investopedia”; The Last States With Prepaid Tuition Plans;
37. “Federal Reserve Board”; Consumer Credit G-19; November 2014
38. “U.S. News”; Income-Based vs. Income-Contingent Loan Repayment; Equal Justice Works; March 23, 2011
39. “Business Insider”; A College With a $94 Million Endowment is Shutting Its Doors, And People In Higher
Education Should Be Scared; Peter Jacobs; March 3, 2015
Disclaimer: The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial planning
or any other kind of advice, and should not be construed as such. Any opinions or statements expressed by cited third
parties do not necessarily reflect those of Moneycation™. All information within this newsletter is to be used or not
used at the sole discretion of the reader and its authenticity and accuracy are not guaranteed. The author of this
newsletter assumes no liability for actions, decisions or events relating in any way to this newsletter's content.
Copyright © 2014 Moneycation™; All Rights Reserved

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Managing education costs

  • 1. Moneycation Published by Moneycation™ Newsletter: March 31, 2015 Volume 3, Issue 7 Managing education costs Economically, education fuels innovation and maintains vital knowledge transfer between generations. It also generates economic growth via bi-products other than innovation such as international revenue from coveted educational programs and industry development that ensures global competitive positioning. For individuals, the net benefits are not quite so perky; just as industries will differ in how much education they demand or need, students will also vary on how much benefit they derive from their education. These differences in results or advantages make the traditional educational investment proposition subject to similar financial principles used in portfolio management such as risk control, asset allocation and total investment. Naturally, cost is also a factor, and the lower the costs are, the less impact a bad education investment decision will have, and the more benefit a good academic choice will yield. This newsletter seeks to identify the costs of education, the causes for them and both theoretical and applied solutions to managing those costs. Tuition costs
  • 2. The average cost of tuition at a four-year public university is rising at a rate of 13 percent per year according to the U.S. Department of Education. However, over the last decade, the annual average is closer to 6%. per Olivia Michael of CNBC. Even averaged out, that kind of cost increase far exceeds the Department of Labor's Consumer Price Index of 1.7 percent year-over-year inflation rate for August 2014, and the Social Security Administration's 3.6% cost of living adjustment for 2012 and 1.7% increase for 2014. The following graph illustrates how tuition costs far exceed other household expenses and income growth and are attributable to specific reasons. A part of the reason tuition rates are going up is because state funding has been cut according to a report by Christine Armario of USA Today. Moreover, as subsidies decline and tuition rates rise, student and parent debt also increases. Despite this, the Institute of Education Sciences forecasts enrollment in post-secondary institutions will continue to rise from 18.1 million to 20.6 million people between 2010 and 2020. Also per the IOES, total annual costs at four-year post-secondary educational institutions average above $21,000 or more than $84,000 per degree. The burden of increasing tuition is not great, but is not as bad as it seems per Jordan Weissmann of The Atlantic. Specifically, Weissmann states tuition rates are a bad measure of cost inflation because they do not include net costs i.e. costs after distribution of grants. Furthermore, the increases in tuition, and the cost of tuition itself vary greatly across and within states. For example, according to the Department of Education's College Affordability and Transparency Center, tuition at California State University at Long Beach is $4,810 per year, whereas at the University of California-Santa Cruz, it is $11,505. Even if average tuition increases are being skewed up by a few statistical outlier states such as California and Florida, there remains a very real problem of millions of graduates not finding jobs. The U.S. Treasury Secretary recently announced that a two percent annual GDP growth is not enough to tackle high unemployment per CNBC. This makes any increase in tuition an amortizable expense after graduation, and that is not an educational incentive for the financial minded and forward looking student. From an economic perspective, the forecast for the benefits of education is also stifled by educational administrative decisions. Furthermore, in an effort to stem the rising costs of tuition some schools are even cutting back on educational program expenses. The net effect of these kind of spending cuts is to lower the quality of education. For instance, the New York Times reports the University of California is considering cutting back educational programs and summer classes to compensate for lost state funding. This indicates a shrinking of educational options if not a decline in the quality of education. College enrollment College enrollment in the United States has dropped and is expected to continue to fall. This has caused some small liberal arts colleges such as Sweet Briar College in Virginia to close per Business Insider. Moreover, this trend has benefitted less costly online institutions. In the 2012- 2013 academic year, the amount of new students reached a level of decline not seen since the 1990s per the New York Times. Moreover, since college enrollment is a measure of educational prospects, industry demand and consumer sentiment, the drop in higher education census data is also an economic indicator.
  • 3. So far, the decline in college enlistment has applied mostly to older students over the age of 25. This means the correlation to the economy and clues about its meaning are more specific to that particular demographic. Nevertheless, this trend reflects what is believed to be a counter-cyclical market per an interview with Terry Hartle in The Atlantic magazine. According to Hartle, student population typically rises during recessions and declines during better economic times. Hence, the drop in college enrollment is thought to be a sign of economic improvement. Even though past trends have linked economic conditions to student census data, this is not the only statistical relationship present. More specifically, tuition rates, student debt and the job market are also linked to school attendance. These additional variables muddy the statistical waters as an improving economy is not necessarily mutually exclusive of things like a rising cost of seduction. In other words, in terms of gross domestic product, the economy is capable of rising at the same time as average national student-loan debt is rising. The reason why education costs are also an important variable is because they indicate other economic conditions such as government spending. For example, according to the , state governments cut financial support for higher education by the Chico Enterprise Review, more than 28 percent between 2008-2012. This has influenced the cost-benefit ratio that students ideally consider before choosing to apply for and attend college. For instance, with each extra dollar spent on tuition, a corresponding rise in post-graduation income must be assessed to justify the higher expense equally. Additional consequences of rising tuition or a higher student debt burden also influence the housing market, student debt repayment and even credit ratings. On the one hand, more employed people who do not go to school are good for debt markets and economic growth. Yet, on the other had, a study published by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau states a problem with affordable private student-loan debt negatively impacted the lending market, which itself is also linked to economic expansion. If the decline in college enrollment is primarily due to an improvement in the job market, then the declining figures suggest a positive economic trend. This is part of the story, and the question then becomes how big a part is it? If fewer mature students means a mostly better job market and economy, then it is positive data. However, if the shrinking numbers reflect something else, then the trend might not be a repeat of past historical correlations, but rather a statistical medley of different reasons such as state funding cuts, job outlooks and higher student debt. Student debt Student debt has surpassed total revolving credit in the United States. Total student debt is above $1.3 trillion per the U.S Federal Reserve Board, and total consumer revolving credit such as credit card debt was first exceeded by student debt in late 2011 per the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Several economic factors have also combined to compound the negative effects of this debt. These additional variables have made student debt a problem for many new and old graduates alike.
  • 4. Consumer Credit Outstanding (In billions of dollars) Source: Federal Reserve Board Costs According to the Institute for Education Sciences total education costs at four year institutions have risen 600 percent since 1980. For example, total tuition, room and board at a public four year academic institution cost $2,550 in 1980 using current dollars, but costs $15,014 in 2010 per the IES. This large rise in the cost of tuition is partly accountable to inflation, yet when using constant dollars adjusted to the Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, the tuition costs still more than double over the same period of time. Interest Another factor that affects the cost of student debt is accrued interest. National Public Radio states some school loans were subsidized via lower interest rates under the College Cost Reduction and Access Act of 2007. That however, will change and lead to a doubling of interest rates if those tax cuts expire. Both Republicans and Democrats in Congress have sought to extend this benefit, but under different conditions that have led to political gridlock. As a result, and if the interest rate subsidy is not extended, the cost of student debt will rise and put additional cost pressure on students and graduates. Size The average size of student debt has also risen. By Q3, 2011 the average size of student debt was $23,300 per the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Moreover, according to AlterNet, in 1992 the average size of undergraduate debt was $9,200 less than half the $18,900 in 2002; similar trend is demonstrated by the New York Times. It is evident the size of student debt has risen along with the cost. However, the size of debt has not increased as fast as cost meaning students have been able to keep their costs down over the historical period. Employment Each year a vast amount of new college students attend school with the hopes of becoming trained for a career. The IES has stated 19.7 million students attended colleges in the United States in 2011. However, if the job market is tight, these former students face the scenario of little or no income with which to pay off their student loans as they become due. This causes debt to negatively
  • 5. amortize in some cases which only amplifies the magnitude of student debt. Despite the costs of education, there is substantial statistical data indicating that an education does have its benefits. More specifically, the value of education and its financial pay back is evident in household asset and income information i.e. those with a head of household with a college degree have average family asset values over $200,000 more than those without. Since asset values show a stronger advantage than income data in the second chart, the presence of greater debt such as mortgages loans is a possible explanation for the discrepancy between asset and income related advantages of college degrees. US-PD The graphs also illustrate another trend; in recent times, both mean asset values and mean income returns associated with higher education have shown fatigue via downward sloping trend line. Since this is also the case for those without degrees, a broader economic trend such as income inequality or declining GDP growth are evident. Furthermore, in terms of income, the net financial advantage of having a college degree has shrunk from approximately $80,000 in 2007 to about $65,000 by 2010. Since the data is averaged out, specific market advantages of one field of education over another are averaged out. In other words, the average advantage does not necessarily apply to all degrees and professions or the sum total value of all degrees, is higher than the sum total of that for all other educational categories combined.
  • 6. US-PD Marking education costs to market At the undergraduate level, a degree in accounting costs the same as a degree in journalism. Yet, according to the Daily Beast, a degree in Journalism is the most useless degree to have (wiping my forehead, good thing I have two degrees in philosophy!) Having said that, there is a real societal and economic issue underlying education costs. Basically, undergraduates are not getting an education marked-to-market, which basically means the worth is not measured in terms of actual value. The term mark-to-market is a typically applied to businesses, however the principles are transferable to education. Before discussing reasons why mark to market should be applied to degrees, the following brief video explains what mark to market is in more detail. Skeptics would argue, if degree costs were measured in terms of worth, professors in low-valued fields would not work because the pay is so low. Really. Has that been proven or is that just speculation? From one perspective, life is more than just money, actually, much more than just money and some might just be passionate to share some things in life regardless of compensation. How do I know this? Quite simple, I've been writing for over five years and have a very low income. What if education were marked to market, what then? For starters, the debt to income ratio of creative types who choose to learn about their fields would be more manageable. That isn't so bad is it? Oh, actually it is for those who only care about money. For those people, who I relate to at a substantial level, follow the smart money. Makes sense, following the arts is not typically being in
  • 7. the path of smart money, unless it's coming from George Lucas, Jean-Louis Gauthier, or William Shakespeare. So if you want to teach art and make a living, have a lot of faith in life. Otherwise, focus on the money ball. There is another real economic problem to marking education to market however. Specifically, if all education costs were marked-to-market, only a handful of degrees would really be worth a great deal. In such case, and assuming many degrees would be valued at far less than their actual present costs, the economy would be affected significantly. For example, professors could be on food stamps, perceptions of education could lower enrollment causing the revenue of educational institutions, and the quality of educational programs to decline. If economics is the focal point, then yes, that is a big deal; but what if it isn't? Economic models are not fool proof, and the field of economics is one of many that applies mathematical formulas to sociological constructs. This is why economics is not considered a science, and what is not scientific is not absolute, therefore economics is not accurate. Also, measuring worth is not quite that simple as a survey of the career paths of thousands of former students would need to be tracked to create any sort of statistical significance to the valuations. It would also be challenging to isolate the exact influence education has on wealth apart from other variables such as luck, personality, motivation etc. Even if economics were a science, which at basic levels it is, the scenario does not bode well materially. For example, Jeremy Grantham, a well known fund manager, thinks "grandchildren have no value" because of the unsustainable course of current economic practices according to John Elkington of the U.K. Guardian. Indeed, Grantham has clearly illustrated that constant growth is impossible with finite resources and demonstrates this using simple mathematics. This is reiterated by Henry Blodget of Business Insider who summarizes Grantham's reasoning as essentially this: "One cubic meter of possessions at a growth rate of 4.5 percent per year for 3000 years is equal to 10 to the 57th power." The economy is a fragile mechanism that millions of people depend on to live and thrive. That's no small potato in an existential world where 'actual living' is a legitimate concern. In such case, humanity and common sense draw lines where economics might not. Specifically, minimum values of educational worth similar to minimum wage of labor. Makes sense doesn't it? No degree is worth nothing, and everybody is on Earth for a reason, so why stand in the way of life when it such a good thing? In other words, undervaluing education is just as bad as overvaluing it because it slows progress, and decreases the quality of education. Financial instruments All is not financially bleak for existing and prospective students. This is because education still has value and numerous academic and financial options exist to both improve the return on educational investment and mitigate the expense. In terms of financial instruments, three key opportunities exist , but they require financial planning and fore site to achieve the best benefit. These are the Coverdell Education Savings Account or CESA, the 529 College Savings Plan, also known as a Qualified Tuition Programs.
  • 8. Coverdell Education Savings Account (CESA) In a sense, Coverdell Education Savings Accounts are similar to retirement accounts in the way they work, except that they are used to finance education rather than post-employment or senior living. CESAs only allow annual contributions of $2,000 per year, but currently have the potential to grow tax free and provide tax-free financing so long as they are used to fund qualified academic expenses such as tuition and student housing. Depending on the assets invested in, the return on CESAs is likely to range anywhere between negative and high performance. For example, money invested in a U.S Treasury Bond Fund is likely to grow slower than a slightly more risky municipal or corporate bond fund. These financial instruments are more likely to be a part of parental or family financial planning than a student choice; largely because students are most likely to only start earning two or three years prior to entering college, and even if they do earn, the chances of using that money responsibly is an additional hurdle. 529 savings plan Qualified tuition programs typically have a much higher contribution limit than Coverdell Education Savings Accounts. The contributions are also tax deductible in many states, which makes them a useful financial planning tool in tax minimization. As with CESAs, the money in 529 plans must be used for specific educational purposes. These plans also allow for tax free earnings accumulation and distribution under the plans conditions, which differ somewhat from CESAs. For example, money within CESAs is required to be used by age 30, whereas there is no age limitation on 529 plans. Additional 529 plan considerations include “state tax parity”, which means contributions in one state are recognized for tax deduction purposes in another state. According to FinAid, only a handful of states including Pennsylvania, Maine, Missouri, Kansas and Arizona allow deductions for out-of-state plans. 529 prepaid tuition plans Additional potentially valuable college savings mechanisms are state-run prepaid tuition plans. Only a handful of states maintain these, but independent 529 prepaid tuition plans help bridge the gap. These financial instruments allow depositors to lock in tuition rates. Since tuition inflation has historically been far in excess of regular consumer price inflation, this serves a particularly low-risk and relatively high return on investment over time. A key to maximizing the financial benefit of these plans is to invest in them early because a year's worth of tuition inflation is not as financially advantageous as a decade or longer. Degree selection Another important consideration in the management of education costs is degree selection. This is because post-education income is just as important as pre-educational financial planning. Degree choice can mean the difference between an education that does nor, or barely pays off over a long period of time, versus a return-on-investment that far exceeds the cost of education.
  • 9. Prior to applying to and enrolling in college programs or vocational training, it is wise to understand the market, personal interests and future economic conditions. Moreover, just because a degree is in demand at present, does not necessarily mean that demand will be the same 4 years later. What is more, some educational programs require continuing education due to rapid industry evolution. An example of this is computer science that has developed at a great speed in the last two decades. In other words, a degree in computer science from 1985 has far less value than a degree in computer science from 2014. Prepaid Tuition vs College Savings Plan Benefits Knowing how to project and forecast educational demand is a useful technique to have when reviewing both colleges and programs. Additionally, colleges themselves differ in educational quality, and in some cases, this dramatically influences corporate hiring decisions. Things to review when researching educational programs include personal interest, industry trends, educational value and average graduating income.
  • 10. Income tax and education There are several ways education loans qualify for tax relief. Payments toward qualified student debt are eligible for income tax credits or deduction with certain restrictions. For example, each tax benefit has a maximum claimable amount between $2,000-$4,000. There also income caps that prevent higher-income earners from claiming tax perks. To determine eligibility for education tax incentives, an IRS Form 1098-T and wage or income statements such as the W-2 or 1099-MISC are needed. Student loan interest deduction Individual tax filers with incomes below $75,000 and joint filers with incomes below $155,000 are able to take this tax deduction; it can lower taxable income by up to $2,500 in the 2013 tax year. This deduction is allowable for education loans not granted by employers or family members. The rules for this deduction allow loan origination fees from qualified educational institutions to also be classified as interest. Voluntary interest payments are also able to be included in the total interest deducted. Interest paid to institutions is required to be reported on Form 1098-E, which should be sent to the payee for each year of interest payment. Tuition and fees deduction This tax deduction reduces taxable income by as much as $4,000. The deduction can be taken without having to file a Schedule A or itemized deductions with the IRS. This tax incentive is allowable when the educational costs are for an institution that participates in a federal student aid program. However, nonprofit or private schools may also qualify. Individual tax filers with incomes above $80,000 and joint filers with incomes above $160,000 are disqualified from taking this deduction. American opportunity tax credit The American Opportunity Tax Credit allows tax filers to claim up to $2,500 off taxes due. The credit cannot be taken in conjunction with the lifetime learning credit. Unlike the lifetime learning credit, there is a four year maximum for which the benefit can be claimed. If taking this credit creates a negative tax balance, then up to 40 percent of the credit or $1,000 may be refunded to the tax filer. In essence, this credit can actually increase annual income because of the refund potential. Individual tax payers with a MAGI above $90,000, and joint filers with MAGIs above $180,000 are excluded from this benefit. Lifetime learning tax credit The Lifetime Learning Credit has an income tax cap that determines eligibility. Specifically, the credit is reduced for single tax filers with modified adjusted gross incomes, or MAGIs, between $53,000-$63,000. If individual income is above $63,000, then the tax filer does not qualify for it. For married tax filers who do so jointly, the phase out income range is $107,000-$127,000. Unlike the American opportunity credit, this tax benefit of up to $2,000 does not qualify for refund of negative tax due balances.
  • 11. These tax benefits are good for tax filers who earn enough income to make substantial payments on student debt. Unemployed and part-time workers are less likely to be able to claim the maximum credit and deduction, especially if they have no other source of income. Nevertheless, taxable income and tax can be lowered by a substantial amount when using the best allowable benefit. The IRS states neither of the aforementioned tax credits are usable alongside the tuition and fees deduction. These kinds of tax perks potentially eliminate or reduce tax filing rate for each year they are claimed. Repayment Education legislation makes college affordable in the sense that if it cannot be paid back, then the debt is forgiven, eventually and if specific annual paperwork filing requirements are met on federal student loans. More specifically, some federal education loans can be paid back using an income contingent repayment plan; this is one of several plans and may or may not be suitable based on individual financial scenarios. Nevertheless, carefully considering these payment plan options is an important step in the management of federal education loans. The U.S. Department of Education screenshot below illustrates the different types of repayment plans. Federal Student Loan Repayment Plans Source: U.S. Department of Education; US-PD Although including education loans in bankruptcy is considered difficult in the case of federal debt, this is not necessarily the case for private loans or revolving credit used to pay student debt. If one qualifies for bankruptcy, especially Chapter 7, then including these other forms of student debt and/or federal debt paid for using these alternative instruments in a bankruptcy filing is one way to help reduce an overall debt burden. Conclusion There is no doubt about college being expensive. What there is contention about is how valuable an
  • 12. education is and how much it should cost. This is because of many factors including a wide range of vocational and academic programs, a vast selection of colleges with a wide range of costs and the benefit of education to students entering the job market. In terms of cost, there are ways to manage them in such a way as to minimize expense and out-of-pocket payments regardless of students' particular subject choice of education. Not taking advantage of the numerous financial instruments, techniques and cost-saving options available to potential and existing students is financial negligence in effect. This is because the net financial and opportunity cost of education rises with each missed expense lowering option. Using college savings plans, tax benefits, in-state tuition rates lower the costs and employment, living at home and qualifying for grants or scholarships help reduce the costs even more. After this, choosing a degree in high demand helps ensure any remaining costs get paid off quicker. Although education reform could in theory, mark the price of education to market, the reality is that the disruption to a very large industry might be too much for the economy to bear. Smaller scale mark-to-market methods are possible, but using the existing methods and techniques for earning, paying for and benefitting from an education should provide students with considerable advantage of those that do not make use of these tools and approaches to the financing of academics. Sources: 1. “CNBC”; How to Ease The Burden of Student Debt; Olivia Michael; January 18, 2015 2. “U.S. Department of Education”; College Affordability and Transparency Center 3. "United States Department of Labor”; Consumer Price Index 4. “Social Security Administration”; Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA); 2015 5. “USA Today”; Average Cost of Four-Year University Up 15%; Christine Armario; June 13, 2012 6. “National Center for Education Statistics”; Tuition Costs of Colleges and Universities 7. “The Atlantic”; How in The World Did College Costs Rise 15% in Only 2 Years; Jordan Weismann; June 13, 2012 8. “CNBC”; Geithner: 2% Growth Rate Won't Cut It on Jobs; Reuters; June 13, 2012 9. “New York Times”; California Cuts Threaten the Status of Universities”; Jennifer Medina; June 1, 2012 10. “New York Times”; College Enrollment Falls as Economy Recovers”; Richard Perez-Pena; July 25, 2013 11. “The Atlantic”; Why Fewer Students in College is Good for the Economy; Amanda Erickson; September 14, 2013 12. “Federal Reserve Bank of New York”; Grading Student Loans; Meta Brown, Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Maricar Mabutas and Wilbert van der Klaauw; March 5, 2012 13. “Consumer Financial Protection Bureau”; Student Debt Swells, Federal Student Loans Now Top a Trillion; Rohit Chopra; July 17, 2013 14. “Institute for Education Sciences”; Tuition Costs of Colleges and Universities; Fast Facts; 2011-2012 15. “U.S. Department of Labor”; CPI Inflation Calculator 16. “National Public Radio”; Student Loan Debt Exceeds One Trillion Dollars; Melissa Block; April 24 2012 17. “Alternet”; After College, A Life Without Debt; Jeffrey Williams/Dissent Magazine; August 16, 2006 18. “The New York Times”; Student Debt at Colleges and Universities Across The Nation; Degrees of Debt; May 12, 2012 19. “Institute for Education Sciences”; Back to School Statistics 20. “The Daily Beast”; 20 Most Useless College Degrees 21. “The Guardian”; Your Grandchildren Have No Value; John Elkington; February 29, 2012 22. “Business Insider”; We Can't Keep Growing Like This; Henry Blodget; February 12, 2012 23. “U.S. Internal Revenue Service”; Form 1098-T Tuition Statement 24. “U.S. Internal Revenue Service”; Form 1098-E Student Loan Interest Statement 25. “U.S. Internal Revenue Service”; American Opportunity Tax Credit 26. “U.S. Internal Revenue Service”; Lifetime Learning Credit 27. “CNN”; Obama Proposes Scaling Back 529 College Savings Plans; Jeanne Sahadi; January 20, 2015 28. “CNBC”; How to Ease the Burden of Student Debt; Olivia Michael; January 18, 2015
  • 13. 29. “U.S. Internal Revenue Service”; Qualified Tuition Program; Publication 970 30. “U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission”; Introduction to 529 Plans 31. “Saving For College LLC”; Can I Have a 529 Plans From Multiple States? 32. “FinAid”; State Tax Deductions for 529 Contributions 33. “New York Times”; A Quiet Revolution in Helping Lift the Burden of Student Debt;; Kevin Carey; January 25, 2015 34. “U.S. News and World Report”; Avoid These Common Prepaid Tuition Plan Mistakes; Reyna Gobel; July 24, 2013 35. “FinAid”; Section 529 Plans 36. “Investopedia”; The Last States With Prepaid Tuition Plans; 37. “Federal Reserve Board”; Consumer Credit G-19; November 2014 38. “U.S. News”; Income-Based vs. Income-Contingent Loan Repayment; Equal Justice Works; March 23, 2011 39. “Business Insider”; A College With a $94 Million Endowment is Shutting Its Doors, And People In Higher Education Should Be Scared; Peter Jacobs; March 3, 2015 Disclaimer: The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial planning or any other kind of advice, and should not be construed as such. Any opinions or statements expressed by cited third parties do not necessarily reflect those of Moneycation™. All information within this newsletter is to be used or not used at the sole discretion of the reader and its authenticity and accuracy are not guaranteed. The author of this newsletter assumes no liability for actions, decisions or events relating in any way to this newsletter's content. Copyright © 2014 Moneycation™; All Rights Reserved