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Moneycation
Published by Moneycation™
Newsletter: October 14, 2014
Volume 2, Issue 10
Behavioral finance, heuristics and marketing
Economic and financial heuristics explain how people's money
related decision making is influenced by psychology and
sociological trends. This is relevant in the marketing profession and to corporate strategists because
purchase decisions, stock market investing and other financial decision making is linked to
consumer behavior. Since human behavior underlies many forms of consumerism such as
discretionary spending, it inherently linked to marketing. In other words, it is another important
sphere of finance and economics that is relevant to business strategy.
Behavioral heuristics opens the door to marketing strategy and offers potential commercial
advantages in several of the following ways. Consequently, the opportunities for businesses and
corporations are seemingly limitless. They are restricted only by the extent to which creative
marketing is able to implement researched and tested concepts of consumer psychology.
• More cost-effective marketing expenditures
• Increased conversions from targeted marketing
• Expanded options for gaining market share
• Improvement of competitive positioning
• Leaner product placement and production
Although human behavior cannot currently be scientifically predicted on a continual basis as
evident in the inability of game theory and political analysis to do so, the 'next best thing' may be
behavioral heuristics in the sense that they can supplement evaluation of the financial decision
making process in an quasi-empirical if not empirical way. A careful review of which heuristics are
most likely to have the highest impact on revenue and other business objectives, and quantified
estimates of the benefits of using them should help managers make more informed decisions
pertaining to consumer behavior.
Behavioral finance
The field of behavioral finance postulates and theorizes that psychological motivations form a basis
for individual financial decisions. A number of different concepts relate to this, of which optimism
bias is a well known one. Broadly speaking optimism bias is a human trait that looks at life and
aspects of it such as the stock market with a less than realistic assessment. Whether or not attributes
of behavioral finance studied are human adaptations or instinct, their relevance to finance is evident
in research per Paul B. Farrell of MarketWatch:
“A behavioral-finance study reported in Money magazine concluded that 88% of all investors
have what psychologists like Kahneman call “optimism bias,” overconfidence. We take big
risks, handicapping ourselves, lose. Then we make excuses. Over half the overconfident
investors who think they are beating the market often underperform by 5% to 15%. But they
can’t admit failure, so never learn.Bottom line: Our brains are often our worst enemies.”
Another psychological flaw in financial heuristics is 'compartmentalization', a theory of identity
discussed by Psychlopedia and others, can influence investing behavior in the stock market.
Moreover, according to compartmentalization, individuals separate their positive and negative
qualities as though they have no influence on one another. This can also affect financial decisions if
one does not realize their optimism bias will impact their otherwise effective due diligence or
financial research.
The concept of behavioral finance is further illustrated in the following diagram. More specifically,
individuals who perceive themselves as above average, are also susceptible to being overly
optimistic and believing they have more control than they actually do. These three factors,
regardless of the statistical validity of the perception of being above average, have the potential to
negatively influence financial decisions by making independent investors overly confident in their
ability to make and manage money properly. This is an important concept to consider for anyone
who is seeking to evaluate their financial planning capacity.
The Self-Enhancement Triad
Source: Amy Cridge; US-PD
People are also slow to react and are over certain when it comes to financial decision making
according to behavioral finance. They also like to pay more in trading commissions and capital
gains taxes in addition to insufficiently diversifying their assets. Whether or not that is actually true
depends on who is being included in market research and how accurately the numbers represent the
population of investors. Nevertheless, the fact these kinds of financial behaviors exist at all does
indicate that perfect market efficiency is a myth so long as humans are directly involved.
Market psychology
Market psychology is an aspect of behavioral finance that applies to brand building, product and
service sales and public relations. More specifically, market psychology refers to specific
behavioral decisions that are reflected by stock markets in a way that defies purely numerical
financial logic. Market psychology is generally associated with aggregated emotions such as fear,
happiness, frustration and so on. Since humans are inevitably both logical, and emotional beings
among other things, it is for the most part impossible to be quantitatively logical 100 percent of the
time, which is when emotions and other psychological decision making processes can take hold of
the stock market.
The term partition dependence is one that describes how the investigation of something creates a
belief within the investigator that the event being studied is more likely to occur. This is because by
studying something in greater detail, the brain becomes more informed and aware of that thing; that
familiarity is thought to influence the perception of likelihood per Caltech:
“In their analysis, the researchers studied an effect called partition dependence, in which
breaking down—or partitioning—the possible outcomes of an event in great detail makes
people think that those outcomes are more likely to happen. The reason, psychologists say, is
that providing specific scenarios makes them more explicit in people's minds. "Whatever
we're thinking about, seems more likely,"
If the above research is correct, then that is good news to marketers because consumer education
assists with product awareness. Furthermore, raised awareness contributes to the chance that
consumers will not only weigh a purchase decision, but be more likely to make a purchase when
details involve information about events such as a stock price rise and favorable corporate earnings.
Another market perception that is not necessarily logical is prospect theory. According to prospect
theory, wealth takes precedence over value in stock purchase decisions. In other words, if the
prospect of greater wealth seems more likely to an investor, especially if they have already
accumulated a good return on their investment, then they are more likely to invest more money than
sell at a more realistic value. This is a factor of greed that trumps reason when the believe of greater
wealth exists. The following excerpt from the Stanford Graduate School of Business further
explains this notion.
“Developed by the late Stanford psychologist Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, prospect
theory demonstrates, among other findings, that people care about changes in financial
wealth rather than absolute value, and that they are more sensitive to losses than to gains
relative to certain reference points. "For example, when we invest in a stock we tend to
remember at what price we bought it," he says. "That affects how we feel toward future risk-
taking. In particular, we may be less afraid of stock market risk after having accumulated a
lot of prior gains—even if there is a small drop in the stock market, we will still be ahead
overall."
It is apparent that humans do not always make logical or sound decisions via various research
studies and market behavior concepts. However, this is a generalization and some individuals are
more apt to be disciplined in their approach to investing than others. Financial professionals such as
registered investment advisors may among the latter group since they are subject to fiduciary
responsibility in addition to professional pressure to attain a return on investment at par or above
the market. This places logical and reasoned investment decision making more balanced with
irrational thinking; it is also an aspect of individual psychology.
Individual psychology
Individual psychology is a component of market psychology. Several non-mathematical decision
making techniques that 'behavioral finance' calls heuristics can affect investors' financial decisions.
An example of a heuristic decision is one based on pattern recognition. Heuristics are an attribute of
Prospect theory which according to Thayer Watkins of San Joss State University, states people are
more likely to choose less money if the probability of acquiring it is 100 percent, but will take a
greater risk for more money if the higher probability is lower than 100 percent in some cases.
Impulse purchases
Individual psychology has common denominators despite being unique to each person. In terms of
consumer behavior, this allows for identifiable heuristics to emerge through research. A study
published by the Association for Consumer Research does this by providing evidence for the causes
of impulse purchases. The research does this by linking external cues to specific personality traits
via statistical research of a population sample and finds that two groups of people are identifiable as
either low-impulse buyers and high-impulse buyers.
“The relationship of personality traits to cues that trigger impulse buying provides heuristic
value in understanding the roles personality traits play in impulse buying...a general
tendency to be influenced by sensory stimuli leads some people to be more aware of, and
affected by, atmospheric factors in retail settings...high impulse buyers were shown to be
more reactive to factors reflecting external triggers, compared to low impulse buyers.”
Even though humans have the power to reason through their decision making process and change it,
automated heuristics are an aspect of individual psychology that often remain constant via inertia
for a period of time until some other factor such as availability of time, money or conscious
changes in preference redirect the original heuristic or behavioral formula.
The following table is based on class notes from the University of Delaware and illustrates
differences in buying behavior. Furthermore, buying behavior is divided in to four categories, each
of which has a varying level of consumer involvement and frequency of expenditure. This is
relevant to commerce and industry because not all products and services fall in to the same realm of
buyer behavior.
Types of Buying Behavior
Routine response and
programmed behavior: Low
involvement, frequent low-cost
purchases.
Limited decision making:
Occasional purchase requiring
information gathering.
Extensive decision making:
High cost, high risk and high
involvement purchases.
Impulse buying:
Unconscious purchase behavior
without planning.
It is important to note that even though buying behavior can be categorized in the above manner,
individual psychology accounts for differences in which type of behavior dominates a person's
purchase decisions. This is because what is considered an occasional purchase for one purchase
may be routine for another or what is a limited decision purchase may be an impulse for someone
else.
The role of individual psychology is helpful in identifying patterns of behavior that apply to groups
of people. Moreover, decisions that are made individually are often made collectively as well. This
occurs in the adoption of commercial social norms and financial decision making. Furthermore,
individual purchase heuristics differ among people, but are also often quite similar as is evident in
aspects of market psychology or financial heuristics within financial markets.
Consumer behavior
On the buying side of the financial heuristics equation is consumer behavior. This relates to the
psychology of consumerism which itself indirectly impacts the stock market through consumer
expenditures, an economic statistic often consulted prior to stock trading According to the
University of Southern California at Marshall, consumer behavior deals with matters such as what
social influences, thought processes and perceptions affect buyer behavior.
Several behavioral models attempt to explain and predict consumer decisions, but the benefits are
limited. For example, the Fishbein model and the Elaboration-likelihood model of consumer
behavior both seek to elaborate upon the influence attitude, emotions and beliefs have on financial
heuristics. According to these marketing models, variables such as identity and specific changes in
actions such as leasing vs. owning influence consumer thought despite underlying attitude about a a
product or service.
Consumer behavior studies and models are limited despite being able to provide useful and
empirically based insights and show how various psychological factors influence purchase
decisions. This is because there are a lot of variables to consider when evaluating consumer
behavior over time, and the existence of these variables de-objectify the accuracy of the
conclusions brought about by hypotheses, models and theories. In other words, although marketing
research is accurate in specific situations and under controlled circumstances, individuals are
frequently affected by advertising in addition to a vast array of other factors. This huge exposure to
both internal and external influences is demonstrated in the following illustration
Complex System of Human Behavior
Source: Hiroki Sayama, CC BY-SA 3.0
Financial heuristics
Since everyone is different, no single financial heuristic applies to everyone, but as the presentation
shows, stock market data makes identifiable patterns of financial decision making evident for
companies of varying sizes. For example, if earnings results are higher than those forecasted,
historical data shows the market overreacts by generating abnormal returns. This is called hot hand
bias and is discussed further on in this newsletter.
Some of the aforementioned data is restated and corroborated by Alok Kumar of the Yale School of
Management. Moreover, according to Kumar, "Prospect theory", as defined by Daniel Kahneman
and Amos Tversky, states that a $1,000 loss is perceived more heavily than a $1,000 gain. This
means investors are more likely to behave differently to capital gains and losses if they take the
presumed perception spread in to account when making financial decisions.
Another factor that influences individual monetary decision making is financial data. For example,
also according to the Kumar presentation, there are three kinds of market efficiency including
weak, semi-strong and strong. The strongest market efficiency is said to be based on access to
public and private financial information. Since not everyone has the same market or corporate data,
market efficiency is partially influenced by how much data investors have access to.
In addition to the impact of financial data on investment decisions is use of analytical tools and
evaluative capacity. Since not every investor will have the same analytical approach to financial
information, not all assessments will be accurate. In effect, this has the potential to slow down or
limit market efficiency to the most informed and aware of participants.
Further elaboration about how behavioral finance affects stock market efficiency is discussed in an
additional presentation published by the University of California at Berkeley Haas School of
Business. This slide show is the most thorough of the three as it mentions and provides supporting
information for numerous aspects of behavioral finance. For instance, the beginning of the slide
show cites Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller in reference to the topic at hand. Specifically, Shiller is
quoted as stating “The aggregate stock market in the United States in the last century has been
driven primarily by psychology and fads, that it has shown massive excessive volatility.”
The Berkeley slides also discuss the predictability of irrational financial decisions and different
kinds of systemic irrationality such as simplification of information and even "magical thinking".
Further supporting studies are also cited including one that finds investors fixate on corporate
earnings and make decisions based on that instead of also including important cash flow factors
such as unpaid accounts receivable. The concept of behavioral finance is also explained in terms of
how active managers or asset managers can use the theory to their advantage i.e. by knowing
market psychology, making buy or sell decisions that capitalize on the behavioral trends is possible.
Every individual financial decision maker is likely to make use of his or her own heuristics or
models with which monetary actions are taken. Organizations such as investment banks, mutual
funds and other money managers are also likely to make use of models such as credit data,
economic indicators and corporate reports when implementing transactions. These latter models,
such as the Capital Asset Pricing Model and Black-Scholes Model, are logically and deductively
arrived at, but are also themselves subject to trader biases. Perhaps only mathematical algorithms
used in high frequency trading are the only truly efficient traders.
Heuristics and marketing
Even though behavioral decision making is complicated by a broad and seemingly unending
amount of variables, the potential exists to sway which of those factors has more influence on
behavioral finance and financial heuristics. Moreover, even though a seemingly unending and ever-
changing psychological and commercial environment exists, the conditions that those parameters
exist do not necessarily change that often. For example, people follow routines that do not change
that much from day-to-day even though their thoughts and experiences are subject to a wide range
of stimulus within those broader behavior patterns.
Even though specific financial heuristics that are explainable via behavioral finance models may be
valid at one point in time, they may not stay valid for a long enough period of time for marketers to
make use of them. To illustrate further, the above “complex adaptive system” pertains to how
individuals think and what influences those thoughts. If a person believes that a particular watch is
a good deal on Monday, that same watch may not be perceived the same way on Tuesday. The
reason(s) for the change in perception could be any one of the influences listed below in addition to
many more.
• New marketing material
• Changes in brand image
• Emotionally related reasons
• Re-prioritizing of discretionary income
• Lifestyle adjustments
The challenge marketers face is developing a consistency in the perception of their brand as well as
a continued belief about its value to individuals over extended periods of time. Brand builders also
have to maintain a certain level of product awareness and access to allow for attitudes and values
about their products to be actionable or convertible in to sales. This is apparent in the previously
discussed study concerning causes of impulse buying among consumers.
“These triggers mainly involve environmental, sensory, and product stimuli controlled by the
marketer (e.g., advertisements, promotional gifts, visual elements, and clothing and looks).
As a result, retailers may be able to play a key role in determining the types of impulse
purchases made by people who are prone to engage in impulse buying.”
What the notion of impulse buying and other heuristics demonstrate is that even though consumers
are exposed and have the ability to rethink a number of behavioral decision making processes, how
they are informed about making those changes is influential. The diagram below shows that
information alone has an impact on how individuals interact with their environment.
Complex Adaptation of Behavior
Source: Acadec/US-PD
Marketing research often has the commercial objective of understanding how people make buying
decisions so corporations can exploit that knowledge for financial gain. In the case of impulse
buying, knowing who buys what when cued in specific ways is a commercial opportunity.
Additional examples of psychologically based heuristics that marketers can benefit from are the
gambler's fallacy or the hot hand bias or both.
Hot hand bias
According to a publication authored by Joseph Johnson of the University of Miami and Gerard J.
Tellis of the University of Southern California, the hot hand bias is an inaccurate believe that past
trends or sequences of events will continue on in to the future. They describe this as the more
dominant of two heuristics, where the gambler's fallacy has less psychological and institutionally
acknowledged influence over financial decisions.
“We propose that consumers typically do not ignore past information about products, even
when they should. In particular, when faced with the performance of products in the form of a
sequence of events, they develop beliefs about the future of the sequence that includes both
trend projection and trend reversal, depending on the length of the trend.”
The reason why hot hand bias is given credence is due to the belief that past performance has some
bearing on future performance. When it comes to events that are not easily predicted however, this
transfer of logic becomes fallacious because it is not valid for inconsistent events. Despite this,
insurance agents and brokers of financial instruments tend to use this in their sales pitches because
it often helps in making a sale.
The hot hand bias is also evident in asset bubbles where “the trend is your friend” despite factual
information to the contrary. In the case of asset bubbles, price trend momentum and volume
strength are actual indicators used by technical analysts when evaluating buy and sell decisions.
This is due to their understanding that it is logical to make use of fallacious patterns so long as
those fallacies affect stock market psychology.
The gamblers' fallacy
The gambler's fallacy states that a reversal of trends is imminent. More specifically, individuals
who are susceptible to the gambler's fallacy are subject to the belief, however false, that a trend
must inevitably stop so they continue betting hoping to capitalize on that misunderstood
knowledge. An example of the gambler's fallacy in practice is the grand martingale. This is a
technique used in roulette that relies on a trend reversal by doubling down on each subsequent bet
after a loss. By betting double the money that was lost, they regain it if the trend reverses. However
the law of large numbers does not require a relatively even probability to guarantee a reversal at any
specific point of time. For example, a penny flipped could be heads 25 times before being tails even
though the probability is 50%.
Marketers, investors and consumers seeking to exploit fallacious reasoning in market behavior are
tasked with identifying which heuristics are dominant or can become dominant at any given point
of time. Thus the accuracy of the heuristics is not a much of a concern in business as is knowing
when specific incorrect beliefs are more or most likely to affect market behavior. Doing so is
assisted with a deeper understanding of the nature of heuristics.
The reason humans use heuristics is to save time or make quick decisions when time is not
available. For example, in a hunting and other situations, humans often faced the fight or flight
decision. Pre-established ways of thinking such as there is one of me, and the animal in front of me
is huge with big fangs so I should run because my odds of survival are higher.
While this quick assessment is accurate to an extent it relies on several pre-established conditions to
be met. Those factors include lack of defense, location, the animal's nature and so on. If the animal
is vegetarian, the individual's heuristic is invalid because it is not a threat. Marketers that know
which heuristics will be used in the wrong situations have an edge.
Anchoring
One heuristic that gives marketers an advantage is known as anchoring. The American Association
for the Advancement of Science describes this as the inaccurate estimation of a value based on a
pre-existing number. In other words, research shows that individuals will use numerical starting
points as a basis with which to make future numerical estimates even if the reward is given for
accuracy. An illustration of anchoring is discussed in terms of the complex system previously
described.
“Even when the likelihood of failure in each component is slight, the probability of an overall
failure can be high if many components are involved. Because of anchoring, people will tend
to underestimate the probabilities of failure in complex systems.”
So if this is true, then people tend to not compound or connect a series of slight inadequacies to an
increase in probability of failure because they anchor on the unlikelihood of failure of component
parts of a complex system. In a sales situation a car salesman may use this to his or her advantage
by stating all the vehicles parts are still functional and unlikely to cause vehicle failure. However, if
the vehicles engine is reliant upon two or more of those parts performing optimally, then a little
imperfection in many parts could be a bigger problem than apparent because the probability of a
part becoming dysfunctional is proportional to the amount of parts.
Loss aversion
Another example of how individual psychology is tied to behavioral heuristics is loss aversion.
According to Michael Norton and Leslie John of Harvard Business School, loss aversion is a
heuristic that is based on the belief that loss of something owned is worse than gaining something
they do not own is better. Stated differently, the proportional perception of loss is greater than the
perceived gain of acquiring something new.
To illustrate loss aversion, losing $100 is considered to have more psychological impact than
gaining $100. Loss aversion theory is also referred to as Prospect theory or expected utility theory
and is represented in the diagram below since the effect of loss is greater in terms of perceived
value than the effect of a gain.
Illustration of Loss Aversion/Prospect Theory
Source: Valuefun/Rieger; CC BY-SA 2.0
Although avoiding loss is not always a result of behavioral heuristics, when it comes to
consumerism, things like survival instinct and fight or flight response are not as relevant if they
apply at all. In the case of commercial decisions, loss aversion becomes a relevant phenomena that
applies to marketing techniques. For instance, if the cancellation of a product or service produces a
greater sense of loss in customers than the addition of a new service, then stopping a service to
replace it might be better approached by upgrading it to make an existing one better.
Hyperbolic discounting
It is well known consumers respond to incentives and rewards. This point has not gone unattended
by marketers seeking to build brand awareness and increase sales. For example, some marketing
surveys offer a financial reward or free product incentive for completing the survey. However, the
effectiveness of rewards is varies based on size and time according to a Harvard Business School
publication; this is known as hyperbolic discounting:
“Blame the behavioral economic principle of "hyperbolic discounting"—people tend to value
future rewards much less than those that occur immediately. "The reward you receive must be
tightly tied to the behavior," says Norton. "If it's large and it's not immediate, it's less likely to
work."
This notion may be linked to consumer attention span, but may also be mutually exclusive or
distinct from attention. In any case, advertisers and marketers seeking to use rewards should pay
close attention to the amount of time involved between what it is they want and the consumer's
reward. For instance, using the same survey example, if the surveys are too long or take too much
time, the value of the reward drops leading to a decline in effectiveness.
Better researched and more traditional heuristics are far from the only decision making patterns
employed by consumers. As the world changes, the ways people understand and deal with their
changing environment also changes. Technology has played a central role in this in recent years.
According to Forbes magazine, new trends shape consumer behavior and include heightened
expectations about what products will do. For instance, consumers want their technological
equipment to be more efficient and capable while personalizing multi-functional multi-media for a
better overall experience. Naturally, companies that pick up on and utilize these changes in
consumer behavior faster than others will have a valuable commercial edge.
Conclusion
Companies and commercial enterprises that pay close attention to the effectiveness of behavioral
heuristics in consumerism have an opportunity to raise revenue, improve marketing strategy and
increase market share. This is part of the reason why behavioral heuristics are studied and
researched.
Testing markets in both controlled and uncontrolled conditions measures the validity and
applicability of heuristics in consumer behavior. Moreover, some heuristics may apply more in
some situations than others, and new ways of thinking about buying and selling decisions may be
discovered, developed and even created via reinforcement of contrived commercial social norms
and utilization of existing heuristics in new marketing scenarios.
Before investing or reallocating financial resources to integration of behavioral heuristics in
corporate strategy, specific considerations such as the applicability of such an approach are
warranted. For example, an industry such as real estate where high involvement purchases
dominate over impulse and routine response purchases is less likely to benefit from marketing
practices linked to behavioral heuristics that only apply to investing in financial markets.
After a pre-analysis of the utility behavioral factors have on commercial activity in terms of
heuristics, a determination about whether or not such an approach is worthwhile should be possible.
If a direct conformation of the advantages of using heuristics within marketing is achieved via
corporate sponsored or academic research, then the implementation and integration of applicable
heuristics in to a product placement, sales techniques, advertising and so on can then be initiated
along with reasonable estimates about the effects doing so will have on business goals.
Sources:
1. “BloombergBusinessweek”; The Curious Paradox of 'Optimism Bias'; Dan Ariely; August 13, 2009
2. “Psychlopedia”; Compartmentalization Model of Self Structure
3. “Behavioral Finance”; Heuristics
4. “San Joss State University”; Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory; Thayer Watkins
5. “US National Library of Medicine: NIH”; The fallacy of financial heuristics; Re: Journal of Health Care Finance,
34(2):81-8J. Langabeer; Winter 2007
6. “University of Southern California at Marshall”; Consumer Behavior
7. “Yale School of Management”; Behavioral Finance (PDF); Alok Kumar; December 8, 1999
8. “University of California at Berkeley Haas School of Business”; Behavioral Finance and Equity Investing (PDF)
9. “Consultive Group to Assist the Poor”; Towards Behaviorally Informed Financial Consumer Protection; Alexandra
Fiorillo and Louis Potok; August 27, 2012
10. “MarketWatch”; Lazy Portfolios Grant Peace of Mind to 95 Million Investors; Paul B. Farrell; August 18, 2014
11. “City University of New York”; Consumer Behavior Topic 7: Attitudes and Attitude Formation (PDF)
12. “Caltech”; Psychology Influences Markets; 07/01/2013
13. “Standford Graduate School of Business”; Where Stock Market Psychology and Pricing Intersect; December 1,
2001
14. “Researchgate.net”; Blowing bubbles: Heuristics and Bias in the Run-Up of Stock Prices; Journal of the Academy
of Marketing; Volume 33, No. 4, pages 486-503; Joesph Johnson and Gerard J. Tellis
15. “Econsultancy”; Mind games: Using Heuristic Theory to Increase Customer Spending Online; Andrew Nicholson;
August 16, 2013
16. “American Association for the Advancement of Science”; Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases;
Science; Volume 185, No. 4157, pages 1124-1131.; Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
17. “Association for Consumer Research”; Impulse Buying: Its Relation To Personality Traits and Cues; Advances In
Consumer Research, Volume 27; Pages 179-185; Seounmi Youn and Ronald J. Faber; 2000
18. “University of Delaware”; Chapter 6 Class Notes
19. “Harvard Business School”; The Business of Behavioral Economics; Leslie K. John and Michael I. Norton;
August 11, 2014
20. “Forbes”; Six Trends That Will Shape Consumer Behavior; On Marketing; February 4, 2014
21. “Handbook of the Economics of Finance”; Chapter 18: A Survey of Behavioral Finance; Nicholas Barberis and
Richard Thaler; 2003
Disclaimer: The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial planning
or any other kind of advice, and should not be construed as such. Any opinions or statements expressed by cited third
parties do not necessarily reflect those of Moneycation. All information within this newsletter is to be used or not used
at the sole discretion of the reader and its authenticity and accuracy are not guaranteed. The author of this newsletter
assumes no liability for actions, decisions or events relating in any way to this newsletter's content.
Copyright © 2014 Moneycation™; All Rights Reserved

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How Behavioral Finance Influences Marketing Decisions

  • 1. Moneycation Published by Moneycation™ Newsletter: October 14, 2014 Volume 2, Issue 10 Behavioral finance, heuristics and marketing Economic and financial heuristics explain how people's money related decision making is influenced by psychology and sociological trends. This is relevant in the marketing profession and to corporate strategists because purchase decisions, stock market investing and other financial decision making is linked to consumer behavior. Since human behavior underlies many forms of consumerism such as discretionary spending, it inherently linked to marketing. In other words, it is another important sphere of finance and economics that is relevant to business strategy. Behavioral heuristics opens the door to marketing strategy and offers potential commercial advantages in several of the following ways. Consequently, the opportunities for businesses and corporations are seemingly limitless. They are restricted only by the extent to which creative marketing is able to implement researched and tested concepts of consumer psychology. • More cost-effective marketing expenditures • Increased conversions from targeted marketing • Expanded options for gaining market share • Improvement of competitive positioning • Leaner product placement and production Although human behavior cannot currently be scientifically predicted on a continual basis as evident in the inability of game theory and political analysis to do so, the 'next best thing' may be behavioral heuristics in the sense that they can supplement evaluation of the financial decision making process in an quasi-empirical if not empirical way. A careful review of which heuristics are most likely to have the highest impact on revenue and other business objectives, and quantified estimates of the benefits of using them should help managers make more informed decisions pertaining to consumer behavior. Behavioral finance The field of behavioral finance postulates and theorizes that psychological motivations form a basis for individual financial decisions. A number of different concepts relate to this, of which optimism bias is a well known one. Broadly speaking optimism bias is a human trait that looks at life and aspects of it such as the stock market with a less than realistic assessment. Whether or not attributes of behavioral finance studied are human adaptations or instinct, their relevance to finance is evident
  • 2. in research per Paul B. Farrell of MarketWatch: “A behavioral-finance study reported in Money magazine concluded that 88% of all investors have what psychologists like Kahneman call “optimism bias,” overconfidence. We take big risks, handicapping ourselves, lose. Then we make excuses. Over half the overconfident investors who think they are beating the market often underperform by 5% to 15%. But they can’t admit failure, so never learn.Bottom line: Our brains are often our worst enemies.” Another psychological flaw in financial heuristics is 'compartmentalization', a theory of identity discussed by Psychlopedia and others, can influence investing behavior in the stock market. Moreover, according to compartmentalization, individuals separate their positive and negative qualities as though they have no influence on one another. This can also affect financial decisions if one does not realize their optimism bias will impact their otherwise effective due diligence or financial research. The concept of behavioral finance is further illustrated in the following diagram. More specifically, individuals who perceive themselves as above average, are also susceptible to being overly optimistic and believing they have more control than they actually do. These three factors, regardless of the statistical validity of the perception of being above average, have the potential to negatively influence financial decisions by making independent investors overly confident in their ability to make and manage money properly. This is an important concept to consider for anyone who is seeking to evaluate their financial planning capacity. The Self-Enhancement Triad Source: Amy Cridge; US-PD People are also slow to react and are over certain when it comes to financial decision making according to behavioral finance. They also like to pay more in trading commissions and capital gains taxes in addition to insufficiently diversifying their assets. Whether or not that is actually true
  • 3. depends on who is being included in market research and how accurately the numbers represent the population of investors. Nevertheless, the fact these kinds of financial behaviors exist at all does indicate that perfect market efficiency is a myth so long as humans are directly involved. Market psychology Market psychology is an aspect of behavioral finance that applies to brand building, product and service sales and public relations. More specifically, market psychology refers to specific behavioral decisions that are reflected by stock markets in a way that defies purely numerical financial logic. Market psychology is generally associated with aggregated emotions such as fear, happiness, frustration and so on. Since humans are inevitably both logical, and emotional beings among other things, it is for the most part impossible to be quantitatively logical 100 percent of the time, which is when emotions and other psychological decision making processes can take hold of the stock market. The term partition dependence is one that describes how the investigation of something creates a belief within the investigator that the event being studied is more likely to occur. This is because by studying something in greater detail, the brain becomes more informed and aware of that thing; that familiarity is thought to influence the perception of likelihood per Caltech: “In their analysis, the researchers studied an effect called partition dependence, in which breaking down—or partitioning—the possible outcomes of an event in great detail makes people think that those outcomes are more likely to happen. The reason, psychologists say, is that providing specific scenarios makes them more explicit in people's minds. "Whatever we're thinking about, seems more likely," If the above research is correct, then that is good news to marketers because consumer education assists with product awareness. Furthermore, raised awareness contributes to the chance that consumers will not only weigh a purchase decision, but be more likely to make a purchase when details involve information about events such as a stock price rise and favorable corporate earnings. Another market perception that is not necessarily logical is prospect theory. According to prospect theory, wealth takes precedence over value in stock purchase decisions. In other words, if the prospect of greater wealth seems more likely to an investor, especially if they have already accumulated a good return on their investment, then they are more likely to invest more money than sell at a more realistic value. This is a factor of greed that trumps reason when the believe of greater wealth exists. The following excerpt from the Stanford Graduate School of Business further explains this notion. “Developed by the late Stanford psychologist Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, prospect theory demonstrates, among other findings, that people care about changes in financial wealth rather than absolute value, and that they are more sensitive to losses than to gains relative to certain reference points. "For example, when we invest in a stock we tend to remember at what price we bought it," he says. "That affects how we feel toward future risk- taking. In particular, we may be less afraid of stock market risk after having accumulated a lot of prior gains—even if there is a small drop in the stock market, we will still be ahead overall."
  • 4. It is apparent that humans do not always make logical or sound decisions via various research studies and market behavior concepts. However, this is a generalization and some individuals are more apt to be disciplined in their approach to investing than others. Financial professionals such as registered investment advisors may among the latter group since they are subject to fiduciary responsibility in addition to professional pressure to attain a return on investment at par or above the market. This places logical and reasoned investment decision making more balanced with irrational thinking; it is also an aspect of individual psychology. Individual psychology Individual psychology is a component of market psychology. Several non-mathematical decision making techniques that 'behavioral finance' calls heuristics can affect investors' financial decisions. An example of a heuristic decision is one based on pattern recognition. Heuristics are an attribute of Prospect theory which according to Thayer Watkins of San Joss State University, states people are more likely to choose less money if the probability of acquiring it is 100 percent, but will take a greater risk for more money if the higher probability is lower than 100 percent in some cases. Impulse purchases Individual psychology has common denominators despite being unique to each person. In terms of consumer behavior, this allows for identifiable heuristics to emerge through research. A study published by the Association for Consumer Research does this by providing evidence for the causes of impulse purchases. The research does this by linking external cues to specific personality traits via statistical research of a population sample and finds that two groups of people are identifiable as either low-impulse buyers and high-impulse buyers. “The relationship of personality traits to cues that trigger impulse buying provides heuristic value in understanding the roles personality traits play in impulse buying...a general tendency to be influenced by sensory stimuli leads some people to be more aware of, and affected by, atmospheric factors in retail settings...high impulse buyers were shown to be more reactive to factors reflecting external triggers, compared to low impulse buyers.” Even though humans have the power to reason through their decision making process and change it, automated heuristics are an aspect of individual psychology that often remain constant via inertia for a period of time until some other factor such as availability of time, money or conscious changes in preference redirect the original heuristic or behavioral formula. The following table is based on class notes from the University of Delaware and illustrates differences in buying behavior. Furthermore, buying behavior is divided in to four categories, each of which has a varying level of consumer involvement and frequency of expenditure. This is relevant to commerce and industry because not all products and services fall in to the same realm of buyer behavior.
  • 5. Types of Buying Behavior Routine response and programmed behavior: Low involvement, frequent low-cost purchases. Limited decision making: Occasional purchase requiring information gathering. Extensive decision making: High cost, high risk and high involvement purchases. Impulse buying: Unconscious purchase behavior without planning. It is important to note that even though buying behavior can be categorized in the above manner, individual psychology accounts for differences in which type of behavior dominates a person's purchase decisions. This is because what is considered an occasional purchase for one purchase may be routine for another or what is a limited decision purchase may be an impulse for someone else. The role of individual psychology is helpful in identifying patterns of behavior that apply to groups of people. Moreover, decisions that are made individually are often made collectively as well. This occurs in the adoption of commercial social norms and financial decision making. Furthermore, individual purchase heuristics differ among people, but are also often quite similar as is evident in aspects of market psychology or financial heuristics within financial markets. Consumer behavior On the buying side of the financial heuristics equation is consumer behavior. This relates to the psychology of consumerism which itself indirectly impacts the stock market through consumer expenditures, an economic statistic often consulted prior to stock trading According to the University of Southern California at Marshall, consumer behavior deals with matters such as what social influences, thought processes and perceptions affect buyer behavior. Several behavioral models attempt to explain and predict consumer decisions, but the benefits are limited. For example, the Fishbein model and the Elaboration-likelihood model of consumer behavior both seek to elaborate upon the influence attitude, emotions and beliefs have on financial heuristics. According to these marketing models, variables such as identity and specific changes in actions such as leasing vs. owning influence consumer thought despite underlying attitude about a a product or service. Consumer behavior studies and models are limited despite being able to provide useful and empirically based insights and show how various psychological factors influence purchase decisions. This is because there are a lot of variables to consider when evaluating consumer behavior over time, and the existence of these variables de-objectify the accuracy of the conclusions brought about by hypotheses, models and theories. In other words, although marketing research is accurate in specific situations and under controlled circumstances, individuals are frequently affected by advertising in addition to a vast array of other factors. This huge exposure to both internal and external influences is demonstrated in the following illustration
  • 6. Complex System of Human Behavior Source: Hiroki Sayama, CC BY-SA 3.0 Financial heuristics Since everyone is different, no single financial heuristic applies to everyone, but as the presentation shows, stock market data makes identifiable patterns of financial decision making evident for companies of varying sizes. For example, if earnings results are higher than those forecasted, historical data shows the market overreacts by generating abnormal returns. This is called hot hand bias and is discussed further on in this newsletter. Some of the aforementioned data is restated and corroborated by Alok Kumar of the Yale School of Management. Moreover, according to Kumar, "Prospect theory", as defined by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, states that a $1,000 loss is perceived more heavily than a $1,000 gain. This
  • 7. means investors are more likely to behave differently to capital gains and losses if they take the presumed perception spread in to account when making financial decisions. Another factor that influences individual monetary decision making is financial data. For example, also according to the Kumar presentation, there are three kinds of market efficiency including weak, semi-strong and strong. The strongest market efficiency is said to be based on access to public and private financial information. Since not everyone has the same market or corporate data, market efficiency is partially influenced by how much data investors have access to. In addition to the impact of financial data on investment decisions is use of analytical tools and evaluative capacity. Since not every investor will have the same analytical approach to financial information, not all assessments will be accurate. In effect, this has the potential to slow down or limit market efficiency to the most informed and aware of participants. Further elaboration about how behavioral finance affects stock market efficiency is discussed in an additional presentation published by the University of California at Berkeley Haas School of Business. This slide show is the most thorough of the three as it mentions and provides supporting information for numerous aspects of behavioral finance. For instance, the beginning of the slide show cites Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller in reference to the topic at hand. Specifically, Shiller is quoted as stating “The aggregate stock market in the United States in the last century has been driven primarily by psychology and fads, that it has shown massive excessive volatility.” The Berkeley slides also discuss the predictability of irrational financial decisions and different kinds of systemic irrationality such as simplification of information and even "magical thinking". Further supporting studies are also cited including one that finds investors fixate on corporate earnings and make decisions based on that instead of also including important cash flow factors such as unpaid accounts receivable. The concept of behavioral finance is also explained in terms of how active managers or asset managers can use the theory to their advantage i.e. by knowing market psychology, making buy or sell decisions that capitalize on the behavioral trends is possible. Every individual financial decision maker is likely to make use of his or her own heuristics or models with which monetary actions are taken. Organizations such as investment banks, mutual funds and other money managers are also likely to make use of models such as credit data, economic indicators and corporate reports when implementing transactions. These latter models, such as the Capital Asset Pricing Model and Black-Scholes Model, are logically and deductively arrived at, but are also themselves subject to trader biases. Perhaps only mathematical algorithms used in high frequency trading are the only truly efficient traders. Heuristics and marketing Even though behavioral decision making is complicated by a broad and seemingly unending amount of variables, the potential exists to sway which of those factors has more influence on behavioral finance and financial heuristics. Moreover, even though a seemingly unending and ever- changing psychological and commercial environment exists, the conditions that those parameters exist do not necessarily change that often. For example, people follow routines that do not change that much from day-to-day even though their thoughts and experiences are subject to a wide range of stimulus within those broader behavior patterns.
  • 8. Even though specific financial heuristics that are explainable via behavioral finance models may be valid at one point in time, they may not stay valid for a long enough period of time for marketers to make use of them. To illustrate further, the above “complex adaptive system” pertains to how individuals think and what influences those thoughts. If a person believes that a particular watch is a good deal on Monday, that same watch may not be perceived the same way on Tuesday. The reason(s) for the change in perception could be any one of the influences listed below in addition to many more. • New marketing material • Changes in brand image • Emotionally related reasons • Re-prioritizing of discretionary income • Lifestyle adjustments The challenge marketers face is developing a consistency in the perception of their brand as well as a continued belief about its value to individuals over extended periods of time. Brand builders also have to maintain a certain level of product awareness and access to allow for attitudes and values about their products to be actionable or convertible in to sales. This is apparent in the previously discussed study concerning causes of impulse buying among consumers. “These triggers mainly involve environmental, sensory, and product stimuli controlled by the marketer (e.g., advertisements, promotional gifts, visual elements, and clothing and looks). As a result, retailers may be able to play a key role in determining the types of impulse purchases made by people who are prone to engage in impulse buying.” What the notion of impulse buying and other heuristics demonstrate is that even though consumers are exposed and have the ability to rethink a number of behavioral decision making processes, how they are informed about making those changes is influential. The diagram below shows that information alone has an impact on how individuals interact with their environment. Complex Adaptation of Behavior Source: Acadec/US-PD
  • 9. Marketing research often has the commercial objective of understanding how people make buying decisions so corporations can exploit that knowledge for financial gain. In the case of impulse buying, knowing who buys what when cued in specific ways is a commercial opportunity. Additional examples of psychologically based heuristics that marketers can benefit from are the gambler's fallacy or the hot hand bias or both. Hot hand bias According to a publication authored by Joseph Johnson of the University of Miami and Gerard J. Tellis of the University of Southern California, the hot hand bias is an inaccurate believe that past trends or sequences of events will continue on in to the future. They describe this as the more dominant of two heuristics, where the gambler's fallacy has less psychological and institutionally acknowledged influence over financial decisions. “We propose that consumers typically do not ignore past information about products, even when they should. In particular, when faced with the performance of products in the form of a sequence of events, they develop beliefs about the future of the sequence that includes both trend projection and trend reversal, depending on the length of the trend.” The reason why hot hand bias is given credence is due to the belief that past performance has some bearing on future performance. When it comes to events that are not easily predicted however, this transfer of logic becomes fallacious because it is not valid for inconsistent events. Despite this, insurance agents and brokers of financial instruments tend to use this in their sales pitches because it often helps in making a sale. The hot hand bias is also evident in asset bubbles where “the trend is your friend” despite factual information to the contrary. In the case of asset bubbles, price trend momentum and volume strength are actual indicators used by technical analysts when evaluating buy and sell decisions. This is due to their understanding that it is logical to make use of fallacious patterns so long as those fallacies affect stock market psychology. The gamblers' fallacy The gambler's fallacy states that a reversal of trends is imminent. More specifically, individuals who are susceptible to the gambler's fallacy are subject to the belief, however false, that a trend must inevitably stop so they continue betting hoping to capitalize on that misunderstood knowledge. An example of the gambler's fallacy in practice is the grand martingale. This is a technique used in roulette that relies on a trend reversal by doubling down on each subsequent bet after a loss. By betting double the money that was lost, they regain it if the trend reverses. However the law of large numbers does not require a relatively even probability to guarantee a reversal at any specific point of time. For example, a penny flipped could be heads 25 times before being tails even though the probability is 50%. Marketers, investors and consumers seeking to exploit fallacious reasoning in market behavior are tasked with identifying which heuristics are dominant or can become dominant at any given point of time. Thus the accuracy of the heuristics is not a much of a concern in business as is knowing
  • 10. when specific incorrect beliefs are more or most likely to affect market behavior. Doing so is assisted with a deeper understanding of the nature of heuristics. The reason humans use heuristics is to save time or make quick decisions when time is not available. For example, in a hunting and other situations, humans often faced the fight or flight decision. Pre-established ways of thinking such as there is one of me, and the animal in front of me is huge with big fangs so I should run because my odds of survival are higher. While this quick assessment is accurate to an extent it relies on several pre-established conditions to be met. Those factors include lack of defense, location, the animal's nature and so on. If the animal is vegetarian, the individual's heuristic is invalid because it is not a threat. Marketers that know which heuristics will be used in the wrong situations have an edge. Anchoring One heuristic that gives marketers an advantage is known as anchoring. The American Association for the Advancement of Science describes this as the inaccurate estimation of a value based on a pre-existing number. In other words, research shows that individuals will use numerical starting points as a basis with which to make future numerical estimates even if the reward is given for accuracy. An illustration of anchoring is discussed in terms of the complex system previously described. “Even when the likelihood of failure in each component is slight, the probability of an overall failure can be high if many components are involved. Because of anchoring, people will tend to underestimate the probabilities of failure in complex systems.” So if this is true, then people tend to not compound or connect a series of slight inadequacies to an increase in probability of failure because they anchor on the unlikelihood of failure of component parts of a complex system. In a sales situation a car salesman may use this to his or her advantage by stating all the vehicles parts are still functional and unlikely to cause vehicle failure. However, if the vehicles engine is reliant upon two or more of those parts performing optimally, then a little imperfection in many parts could be a bigger problem than apparent because the probability of a part becoming dysfunctional is proportional to the amount of parts. Loss aversion Another example of how individual psychology is tied to behavioral heuristics is loss aversion. According to Michael Norton and Leslie John of Harvard Business School, loss aversion is a heuristic that is based on the belief that loss of something owned is worse than gaining something they do not own is better. Stated differently, the proportional perception of loss is greater than the perceived gain of acquiring something new. To illustrate loss aversion, losing $100 is considered to have more psychological impact than gaining $100. Loss aversion theory is also referred to as Prospect theory or expected utility theory and is represented in the diagram below since the effect of loss is greater in terms of perceived value than the effect of a gain.
  • 11. Illustration of Loss Aversion/Prospect Theory Source: Valuefun/Rieger; CC BY-SA 2.0 Although avoiding loss is not always a result of behavioral heuristics, when it comes to consumerism, things like survival instinct and fight or flight response are not as relevant if they apply at all. In the case of commercial decisions, loss aversion becomes a relevant phenomena that applies to marketing techniques. For instance, if the cancellation of a product or service produces a greater sense of loss in customers than the addition of a new service, then stopping a service to replace it might be better approached by upgrading it to make an existing one better. Hyperbolic discounting It is well known consumers respond to incentives and rewards. This point has not gone unattended by marketers seeking to build brand awareness and increase sales. For example, some marketing surveys offer a financial reward or free product incentive for completing the survey. However, the effectiveness of rewards is varies based on size and time according to a Harvard Business School publication; this is known as hyperbolic discounting: “Blame the behavioral economic principle of "hyperbolic discounting"—people tend to value future rewards much less than those that occur immediately. "The reward you receive must be tightly tied to the behavior," says Norton. "If it's large and it's not immediate, it's less likely to work." This notion may be linked to consumer attention span, but may also be mutually exclusive or distinct from attention. In any case, advertisers and marketers seeking to use rewards should pay close attention to the amount of time involved between what it is they want and the consumer's reward. For instance, using the same survey example, if the surveys are too long or take too much time, the value of the reward drops leading to a decline in effectiveness. Better researched and more traditional heuristics are far from the only decision making patterns employed by consumers. As the world changes, the ways people understand and deal with their changing environment also changes. Technology has played a central role in this in recent years. According to Forbes magazine, new trends shape consumer behavior and include heightened
  • 12. expectations about what products will do. For instance, consumers want their technological equipment to be more efficient and capable while personalizing multi-functional multi-media for a better overall experience. Naturally, companies that pick up on and utilize these changes in consumer behavior faster than others will have a valuable commercial edge. Conclusion Companies and commercial enterprises that pay close attention to the effectiveness of behavioral heuristics in consumerism have an opportunity to raise revenue, improve marketing strategy and increase market share. This is part of the reason why behavioral heuristics are studied and researched. Testing markets in both controlled and uncontrolled conditions measures the validity and applicability of heuristics in consumer behavior. Moreover, some heuristics may apply more in some situations than others, and new ways of thinking about buying and selling decisions may be discovered, developed and even created via reinforcement of contrived commercial social norms and utilization of existing heuristics in new marketing scenarios. Before investing or reallocating financial resources to integration of behavioral heuristics in corporate strategy, specific considerations such as the applicability of such an approach are warranted. For example, an industry such as real estate where high involvement purchases dominate over impulse and routine response purchases is less likely to benefit from marketing practices linked to behavioral heuristics that only apply to investing in financial markets. After a pre-analysis of the utility behavioral factors have on commercial activity in terms of heuristics, a determination about whether or not such an approach is worthwhile should be possible. If a direct conformation of the advantages of using heuristics within marketing is achieved via corporate sponsored or academic research, then the implementation and integration of applicable heuristics in to a product placement, sales techniques, advertising and so on can then be initiated along with reasonable estimates about the effects doing so will have on business goals. Sources: 1. “BloombergBusinessweek”; The Curious Paradox of 'Optimism Bias'; Dan Ariely; August 13, 2009 2. “Psychlopedia”; Compartmentalization Model of Self Structure 3. “Behavioral Finance”; Heuristics 4. “San Joss State University”; Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory; Thayer Watkins 5. “US National Library of Medicine: NIH”; The fallacy of financial heuristics; Re: Journal of Health Care Finance, 34(2):81-8J. Langabeer; Winter 2007 6. “University of Southern California at Marshall”; Consumer Behavior 7. “Yale School of Management”; Behavioral Finance (PDF); Alok Kumar; December 8, 1999 8. “University of California at Berkeley Haas School of Business”; Behavioral Finance and Equity Investing (PDF) 9. “Consultive Group to Assist the Poor”; Towards Behaviorally Informed Financial Consumer Protection; Alexandra Fiorillo and Louis Potok; August 27, 2012 10. “MarketWatch”; Lazy Portfolios Grant Peace of Mind to 95 Million Investors; Paul B. Farrell; August 18, 2014 11. “City University of New York”; Consumer Behavior Topic 7: Attitudes and Attitude Formation (PDF) 12. “Caltech”; Psychology Influences Markets; 07/01/2013 13. “Standford Graduate School of Business”; Where Stock Market Psychology and Pricing Intersect; December 1, 2001
  • 13. 14. “Researchgate.net”; Blowing bubbles: Heuristics and Bias in the Run-Up of Stock Prices; Journal of the Academy of Marketing; Volume 33, No. 4, pages 486-503; Joesph Johnson and Gerard J. Tellis 15. “Econsultancy”; Mind games: Using Heuristic Theory to Increase Customer Spending Online; Andrew Nicholson; August 16, 2013 16. “American Association for the Advancement of Science”; Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases; Science; Volume 185, No. 4157, pages 1124-1131.; Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman 17. “Association for Consumer Research”; Impulse Buying: Its Relation To Personality Traits and Cues; Advances In Consumer Research, Volume 27; Pages 179-185; Seounmi Youn and Ronald J. Faber; 2000 18. “University of Delaware”; Chapter 6 Class Notes 19. “Harvard Business School”; The Business of Behavioral Economics; Leslie K. John and Michael I. Norton; August 11, 2014 20. “Forbes”; Six Trends That Will Shape Consumer Behavior; On Marketing; February 4, 2014 21. “Handbook of the Economics of Finance”; Chapter 18: A Survey of Behavioral Finance; Nicholas Barberis and Richard Thaler; 2003 Disclaimer: The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial planning or any other kind of advice, and should not be construed as such. Any opinions or statements expressed by cited third parties do not necessarily reflect those of Moneycation. All information within this newsletter is to be used or not used at the sole discretion of the reader and its authenticity and accuracy are not guaranteed. The author of this newsletter assumes no liability for actions, decisions or events relating in any way to this newsletter's content. Copyright © 2014 Moneycation™; All Rights Reserved