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Hera Group 9M 2012 results



Analyst presentation
13th November 2012




    www.gruppohera.it
Sound and growing results despite difficult environment



                                                   Business mix allows EPS up by +3.7% in 9
500   +1.5%                                        months despite persistent difficult macro
450                                                environment.
400                                                Energy and Network underpin growth more
            474                                    than compensating Waste performance
350
      467
                                                   affected by Cip6 incentive expired in 2011 on
300
                   +0.9%                           Bologna WTE and by negative effects of
250                                                contracted manufacturing production.
200
                    241    243                     Cash generation fully funding capex and
150                                                change in working capital.
                                     +3.7%
100                                   68     70
                                                   Net debt at 2,115m€ following Group’s dividend
 50                                                payments.
       Ebitda         Ebit            Net profit
                                      post min.    Q3 less performing of H1 because of change in
                                                   fair values and seasonal lower contribution from
                  9M '11         9M '12
                                                   Energy due to summer period.




                                                                                                      1
Confirming bottom line positive growth




All    up:   Tariffs,
volumes,     energy                        Ebitda growth not
prices, customers.                         accounting effect of
                                           Cip6 expiry: +4.0% .


                                           Financial   charges
                                           reflect change in
                                           debt    and   credit
                                           spreads.

Avg. tax rate 45.9%
(vs 46.2% in 9m ’11)
                                           End      of   Cip6
                                           incentive on FEA
                                           WTE (Bologna).




                                                                2
Ebitda still posting a positive growth


      Ebitda growth drivers                         Ebitda further enhance despite all
500
      466.7                +7.9    +11.0   473.6      • Organic growth driven by gas supply and
                (12.0)
                                                        water tariff increase.
400
                                                      • Market expansion progressed, reaching
                                                        535k costumers in electricity and 1.12m in
300
                                                        gas.
                                                      • M&A relates to Sadori Gas (July 2011), 4MW
200

                                                        FV acquisition (Feb. 2012) and a plus on real
      9M '11   Cip6 FEA   Syn. &   M&A     9M '12
                          Org.G.
                                                        estate sale (6m€).
                                                    Balanced mix offsets recession impact
      Ebitda by strategic area
                                                      • Waste affected by recession impact and by
                                                        Cip6 expiry. Q3 highlights a slow down in
                                                        special waste negative volume trend (-0.7%
                                                        in Q/Q).
                                                      • Network Ebitda increase relates to tariff
                                                        enhancements and efficiency gains, mainly
                                                        in water services.
                                                      • Energy posted positive contribution, despite
                                                        negative impact of change in fair values,
                                                        benefitting from trading margins, volumes
                                                        delivered and customer expansion.

                                                                                                        3
Cash flows in line with expectation


          9M 2012 cash flows
          (m€)
                                                                                   9M ’12 cash generation fully funded change
                                                                                   in working capital and capex (net of 17 m€
        +265                                                                       dismissions) confirming positive free cash flows
270                                                                                (excluding dividends and M&A)
220




170
                 (167)                                                             M&A mainly relates to acquisition of 4 solar
                                                                                   plants and the majority stake in a landfill in
120
                                                                                   Modena (Feronia).
 70                       (73)
                                   (12)   +13.6
 20
                                                                                   Net debts at 2,115 m€ following dividend
  0                                                  (27)                          payments (vs. 1,987m€ as at 31/12/2011)
 -30
                                                                                   substantially confirming H1 levels.
 -80
                                                             (114)

-130                                                                               Solid financial debt profile confirmed:
                                                                     (127.8)
-180                                                                               Fixed Rate:                             62.5%
        Oper. Net        NWC Prov. & FCF
                                      Free          M&A Divid.& Ch.                Maturities by the end of 2013:          258m€
         CF* Capex            Other pre-
                                       CF           Other Min.  Debt
                                          extra                                    Committed credit lines:                420m€




       * Net profit pre-minorities+Depreciations+ IAS non cash interest expenses                                                      4
Waste: proactive mgmt progressively curb Q1 negative trends


    Financial highlights
                                                                                            Revenues mainly affected by change in energy
                                                                                            incentives (Cip6 expiry of about -12m€).


                                                                                            EBITDA highlight a progressive enhancement
                                                                                            since Q1*.
    Ebitda trend by 2012 quarters (m€)
    (excluding effect of Cip6 incentive expiry)

                                       +0.4
                                                               +0.9                         Green energy production posted a slight
0
              (6.0)                                                                         increase (from 520 to around 540 Gwh).

               Q1                       Q2                     Q3                           Sorted collection confirmed at 50% of urban
                                                                                            waste.
Sales & volume treated

                                                                                            Two new dry fermentation plants under
                                                                                            construction planned on stream by year end.


                                                                                            Q3 volume of special waste confirmed stable
                                                                                            around 361k tons (vs. 365k ton in Q3 2011).


                                                                                                                                           5
    *In Q1 2012 extraordinary snowfall effects, lower capitalisation of costs and fewer green certificates were booked
Water: strong results



 Financial highlights   Revenues growth,      mainly   driven   by
                        tariffs increase.

                        Third parties works/new connections
                        still affected by weak real estate
                        industry (-2.6m€ Ebitda vs 2011).

                        ATO contracts in force until the end of
                        the year on ~100% of areas served. New
                        tariff framework expected to be released
                        by AEEG within year end.

 Volumes
                        EBITDA increase, mainly driven by
                        revenue growth, despite higher costs
                        (+2.4% vs 2011) of electricity, of fresh
                        water (+1.4m€ Ebitda vs 2011) and
                        extraordinary one-off costs related to the
                        drought summer.




                                                                     6
Gas: still benefitting from competitive positioning



   Financial highlights                   Revenues growth mainly driven by higher
                                          commodity prices, favourable climate
                                          conditions and additional trading volumes.

                                          Trading activities still expanding thanks to
                                          the activity in “mercato di bilanciamento”
                                          and additional sales to power generation
                                          plants.

                                          Gas distribution activities posted positive
   Volumes                                contribution (+3m€ Ebitda vs 2011) following
                                          network expansion and favourable climate
                                          conditions.

                                          Results affected by change in fair values

                                          Procurement contracts 2012-2013 thermal
                                          season provide room to further enhance
                                          results in Q4.




                                                                                         7
Electricity: business fundamentals still reasonably sound


  Financial highlights
                                       Revenues growth mainly driven by higher
                                       commodity prices. Volumes sold reflecting
                                       recession    effects     (-2.3% electricity
                                       consumptions in Italy*).


                                       Good commercial performance brought a
                                       net increase of cutomer base by (+53K
                                       reaching 534K clients).

   Volumes                             EBITDA comparison with 2011 biased by the
                                       positive contribution from fair values of
                                       hedging derivatives accounted as at
                                       30/09/2011.

                                       Positive contribution came from distribution
                                       activities and from solar power gen.




*Data released by Terna
                                                                                      8
In summary



Energy sales & trading activities and Water posting sound results.

Waste confirmed positive trend of results in last two quarter (when excluding
effect of Cip6 expiry) and marked a progressive reduction of negative trends
in volumes.

Economic downturn not tangibly affecting financial structure (confirmed in
line with H1 2012).

Energonut acquisition executed in November the 5th and Acegas APS merger
project is progressing as scheduled.




           9M 2012 in line with management expectations.



                                                                                9
Q&A session

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Hera Group 9M 2012 results

  • 1. Resilient through the storm Hera Group 9M 2012 results Analyst presentation 13th November 2012 www.gruppohera.it
  • 2. Sound and growing results despite difficult environment Business mix allows EPS up by +3.7% in 9 500 +1.5% months despite persistent difficult macro 450 environment. 400 Energy and Network underpin growth more 474 than compensating Waste performance 350 467 affected by Cip6 incentive expired in 2011 on 300 +0.9% Bologna WTE and by negative effects of 250 contracted manufacturing production. 200 241 243 Cash generation fully funding capex and 150 change in working capital. +3.7% 100 68 70 Net debt at 2,115m€ following Group’s dividend 50 payments. Ebitda Ebit Net profit post min. Q3 less performing of H1 because of change in fair values and seasonal lower contribution from 9M '11 9M '12 Energy due to summer period. 1
  • 3. Confirming bottom line positive growth All up: Tariffs, volumes, energy Ebitda growth not prices, customers. accounting effect of Cip6 expiry: +4.0% . Financial charges reflect change in debt and credit spreads. Avg. tax rate 45.9% (vs 46.2% in 9m ’11) End of Cip6 incentive on FEA WTE (Bologna). 2
  • 4. Ebitda still posting a positive growth Ebitda growth drivers Ebitda further enhance despite all 500 466.7 +7.9 +11.0 473.6 • Organic growth driven by gas supply and (12.0) water tariff increase. 400 • Market expansion progressed, reaching 535k costumers in electricity and 1.12m in 300 gas. • M&A relates to Sadori Gas (July 2011), 4MW 200 FV acquisition (Feb. 2012) and a plus on real 9M '11 Cip6 FEA Syn. & M&A 9M '12 Org.G. estate sale (6m€). Balanced mix offsets recession impact Ebitda by strategic area • Waste affected by recession impact and by Cip6 expiry. Q3 highlights a slow down in special waste negative volume trend (-0.7% in Q/Q). • Network Ebitda increase relates to tariff enhancements and efficiency gains, mainly in water services. • Energy posted positive contribution, despite negative impact of change in fair values, benefitting from trading margins, volumes delivered and customer expansion. 3
  • 5. Cash flows in line with expectation 9M 2012 cash flows (m€) 9M ’12 cash generation fully funded change in working capital and capex (net of 17 m€ +265 dismissions) confirming positive free cash flows 270 (excluding dividends and M&A) 220 170 (167) M&A mainly relates to acquisition of 4 solar plants and the majority stake in a landfill in 120 Modena (Feronia). 70 (73) (12) +13.6 20 Net debts at 2,115 m€ following dividend 0 (27) payments (vs. 1,987m€ as at 31/12/2011) -30 substantially confirming H1 levels. -80 (114) -130 Solid financial debt profile confirmed: (127.8) -180 Fixed Rate: 62.5% Oper. Net NWC Prov. & FCF Free M&A Divid.& Ch. Maturities by the end of 2013: 258m€ CF* Capex Other pre- CF Other Min. Debt extra Committed credit lines: 420m€ * Net profit pre-minorities+Depreciations+ IAS non cash interest expenses 4
  • 6. Waste: proactive mgmt progressively curb Q1 negative trends Financial highlights Revenues mainly affected by change in energy incentives (Cip6 expiry of about -12m€). EBITDA highlight a progressive enhancement since Q1*. Ebitda trend by 2012 quarters (m€) (excluding effect of Cip6 incentive expiry) +0.4 +0.9 Green energy production posted a slight 0 (6.0) increase (from 520 to around 540 Gwh). Q1 Q2 Q3 Sorted collection confirmed at 50% of urban waste. Sales & volume treated Two new dry fermentation plants under construction planned on stream by year end. Q3 volume of special waste confirmed stable around 361k tons (vs. 365k ton in Q3 2011). 5 *In Q1 2012 extraordinary snowfall effects, lower capitalisation of costs and fewer green certificates were booked
  • 7. Water: strong results Financial highlights Revenues growth, mainly driven by tariffs increase. Third parties works/new connections still affected by weak real estate industry (-2.6m€ Ebitda vs 2011). ATO contracts in force until the end of the year on ~100% of areas served. New tariff framework expected to be released by AEEG within year end. Volumes EBITDA increase, mainly driven by revenue growth, despite higher costs (+2.4% vs 2011) of electricity, of fresh water (+1.4m€ Ebitda vs 2011) and extraordinary one-off costs related to the drought summer. 6
  • 8. Gas: still benefitting from competitive positioning Financial highlights Revenues growth mainly driven by higher commodity prices, favourable climate conditions and additional trading volumes. Trading activities still expanding thanks to the activity in “mercato di bilanciamento” and additional sales to power generation plants. Gas distribution activities posted positive Volumes contribution (+3m€ Ebitda vs 2011) following network expansion and favourable climate conditions. Results affected by change in fair values Procurement contracts 2012-2013 thermal season provide room to further enhance results in Q4. 7
  • 9. Electricity: business fundamentals still reasonably sound Financial highlights Revenues growth mainly driven by higher commodity prices. Volumes sold reflecting recession effects (-2.3% electricity consumptions in Italy*). Good commercial performance brought a net increase of cutomer base by (+53K reaching 534K clients). Volumes EBITDA comparison with 2011 biased by the positive contribution from fair values of hedging derivatives accounted as at 30/09/2011. Positive contribution came from distribution activities and from solar power gen. *Data released by Terna 8
  • 10. In summary Energy sales & trading activities and Water posting sound results. Waste confirmed positive trend of results in last two quarter (when excluding effect of Cip6 expiry) and marked a progressive reduction of negative trends in volumes. Economic downturn not tangibly affecting financial structure (confirmed in line with H1 2012). Energonut acquisition executed in November the 5th and Acegas APS merger project is progressing as scheduled. 9M 2012 in line with management expectations. 9