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Chapter Seven
1
CHAPTER 8
Economic Growth I:
Capital Accumulation and Population Growth
Daw Chan Myae July
Chapter Seven 2
The Solow Growth Model is designed to show how
growth in the capital stock, growth in the labor force, and
advances in technology interact in an economy, and how
they affect a nation’s total output of
goods and services.
Let’s now examine how the
model treats the accumulation
of capital.
Chapter Seven 3
Chapter Seven 4
The production function represents the
transformation of inputs (labor (L), capital (K),
production technology) into outputs (final goods
and services for a certain time period).
The algebraic representation is:
Y = F ( K , L )
The Production Function
Income is some function of our given inputs
Let’s analyze the supply and demand for goods, and
see how much output is produced at any given time
and how this output is allocated among alternative uses.
Key Assumption:
The Production Function has constant returns to scale.
z z
z
Key Assumption:
Chapter Seven 5
This assumption lets us analyze all quantities relative to the size of
the labor force. Set z = 1/L.
Y/ L = F ( K / L , 1 )
Output
Per worker
is some function of the amount of
capital per worker
Constant returns to scale imply that the size of the economy as
measured by the number of workers does not affect the relationship
between output per worker and capital per worker. So, from now on,
let’s denote all quantities in per worker terms in lower case letters.
Here is our production function:
, where f(k) = F(k,1).
This is a constant
that can be ignored.
y = f( k )
Chapter Seven 6
MPK = f(k + 1) – f (k)
y
k
f(k)
The production function shows
how the amount of capital per
worker k determines the amount
of output per worker y = f(k).
The slope of the production
function is the marginal product of
capital: if k increases by 1 unit, y
increases by MPK units.
1
MPK
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 7
consumption
per worker
depends
on savings
rate
(between 0 and 1)
Output
per worker
consumption
per worker investmen
t
per worker
y = c + i
1)
c = (1-s)y
2)
y = (1-s)y + i
3)
4) i = sy Investment = savings. The rate of saving s
is the fraction of output devoted to investment.
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 8
Here are two forces that influence the capital stock:
• Investment: expenditure on plant and equipment.
• Depreciation: wearing out of old capital; causes capital stock to
fall.
Recall investment per worker i = s y.
Let’s substitute the production function for y, we can express investment
per worker as a function of the capital stock per worker:
i = s f(k)
This equation relates the existing stock of capital k to the accumulation
of new capital i.
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 9
Investment, s f(k)
Output, f (k)
c (per worker)
i (per worker)
y (per worker)
The saving rate s determines the allocation of output between
consumption and investment. For any level of k, output is f(k),
investment is s f(k), and consumption is f(k) – sf(k).
y
k
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 10
Impact of investment and depreciation on the capital stock: Δk = i –δk
Change in
capital stock
Investment Depreciation
Remember investment equals
savings so, it can be written:
Δk = s f(k) – δk
δ
k
k
δ
k
Depreciation is therefore proportional
to the capital stock.
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 11
Investment
and depreciation
Capital
per worker,
k
i* =
δk*
k
*
k
1
k
2
At k*, investment equals depreciation and
capital will not change over time. Below k*,
investment
exceeds
depreciation,
so the capital
stock grows.
Investment, s f(k)
Depreciation,
δk
Above k*, depreciation
exceeds investment, so the
capital stock shrinks.
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 12
Investment
and
depreciation
Capital
per worker,
k
i* =
δk*
k1
*
k2
*
Depreciation,
δk
Investment, s1
f(k)
Investment,
s2f(k)
The Solow Model shows that if the saving rate is high, the economy
will have a large capital stock and high level of output. If the saving
rate is low, the economy will have a small capital stock and a
low level of output.
An increase in
the saving rate
causes the capital
stock to grow to
a new steady state.
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 13
The steady-state value of k that maximizes consumption is called
the Golden Rule Level of Capital. To find the steady-state consumption
per worker, we begin with the national income accounts identity:
and rearrange it as:
c = y - i.
This equation holds that consumption is output minus investment.
Because we want to find steady-state consumption, we substitute
steady-state values for output and investment. Steady-state output
per worker is f (k*) where k* is the steady-state capital stock per
worker. Furthermore, because the capital stock is not changing in the
steady state, investment is equal to depreciation δk*. Substituting f (k*)
for y and δk* for i, we can write steady-state consumption per worker as
c* = f (k*) - δk*.
y - c + i
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 14
c*= f (k*) -
δk*.
According to this equation, steady-state consumption is what’s left
of steady-state output after paying for steady-state depreciation. It
further shows that an increase in steady-state capital has two opposing
effects on steady-state consumption. On the one hand, more capital
means more output. On the other hand, more capital also means that more
output must be used to replace capital that is wearing out.
The economy’s output is used for
consumption or investment. In the steady
state, investment equals depreciation.
Therefore, steady-state consumption is the
difference between output f (k*) and
depreciation δk*. Steady-state consumption
is maximized at the Golden Rule steady
state. The Golden Rule capital stock is
denoted k*gold, and the Golden Rule
consumption is c*gold.
δ
k
k
δ
k
Output, f(k)
c *gold
k*gold
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 15
Let’s now derive a simple condition that characterizes the Golden Rule
level of capital. Recall that the slope of the production function is the
marginal product of capital MPK. The slope of the δk* line is δ.
Because these two slopes are equal at k*gold, the Golden Rule can
be described by the equation: MPK = δ.
At the Golden Rule level of capital, the marginal product of capital
equals the depreciation rate.
Keep in mind that the economy does not automatically gravitate toward
the Golden Rule steady state. If we want a particular steady-state capital
stock, such as the Golden Rule, we need a particular saving rate to
support it.
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 16
The basic Solow model shows that capital accumulation, alone,
cannot explain sustained economic growth: high rates of saving
lead to high growth temporarily, but the economy eventually
approaches a steady state in which capital and output are constant.
To explain the sustained economic growth, we must expand the
Solow model to incorporate the other two sources of economic
growth.
So, let’s add population growth to the model. We’ll assume that the
population and labor force grow at a constant rate n.
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 17
Like depreciation, population growth is one reason why the capital
stock per worker shrinks. If n is the rate of population growth and δ
is the rate of depreciation, then (δ + n)k is break-even
investment, which is the amount necessary
to keep constant the capital stock
per worker k.
Investment,
break-even
investment
Capital
per worker,
k
k
*
Break-even
investment, (δ +
n)k
Investment, s f(k)
For the economy to be in a steady state,
investment s f(k) must offset the effects of
depreciation and population growth (δ + n)k. This
is shown by the intersection of the two curves. An
increase in the saving rate causes the capital stock
to grow to a new steady state.
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 18
Investment,
break-even
investment
Capital
per worker,
k
k*
1
Investment, s f(k)
(δ +
n1)k
An increase in the rate of population growth shifts the line
representing population growth and depreciation upward. The new
steady state has a lower level of capital per worker than the
initial steady state. Thus, the Solow model
predicts that economies with higher rates
of population growth will have lower
levels of capital per worker and
therefore lower incomes.
k*
2
(δ +
n2)k
An increase in the rate of
population growth from
n1 to n2 reduces the
steady-state capital stock
from k*1 to k*2.
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 19
The change in the capital stock per worker is: Δk = i – (δ+n)k
Now, let’s substitute sf(k) for i: Δk = (sfk) – (δ+n)k
This equation shows how new investment, depreciation, and
population growth influence the per-worker capital stock. New
investment increases k, whereas depreciation and population growth
decrease k. When we did not include the “n” variable in our simple
version—we were assuming a special case in which the population
growth was 0.
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 20
In the steady state, the positive effect of investment on the capital per
worker just balances the negative effects of depreciation and
population growth. Once the economy is in the steady state,
investment has two purposes:
1) Some of it, (δk*), replaces the depreciated capital,
2) The rest, (nk*), provides new workers with the steady state amount of
capital.
Capital
per worker,
k
*
k*
'
The Steady
State
Investment,s
f
(k
)
Break-even Investment,(δ + n)
k
Break-even investment, (δ + n')
k
An increase in the rate
of growth of population
will lower the level of
output per worker.
s
f
(k
)
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 21
• In the long run, an economy’s saving determines the size
of k and thus y.
• The higher the rate of saving, the higher the stock of capital
and the higher the level of y.
• An increase in the rate of saving causes a period of rapid
growth,
but eventually that growth slows as the new steady state is
reached.
Conclusion: although a high saving rate yields a high
steady-state level of output, saving by itself cannot generate
persistent economic growth.
Chapter 8
Chapter Seven 22
Solow growth model
Steady state
Golden Rule level of capital
Chapter 8

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Macroeconomics chapter 8

  • 1. Chapter Seven 1 CHAPTER 8 Economic Growth I: Capital Accumulation and Population Growth Daw Chan Myae July
  • 2. Chapter Seven 2 The Solow Growth Model is designed to show how growth in the capital stock, growth in the labor force, and advances in technology interact in an economy, and how they affect a nation’s total output of goods and services. Let’s now examine how the model treats the accumulation of capital.
  • 4. Chapter Seven 4 The production function represents the transformation of inputs (labor (L), capital (K), production technology) into outputs (final goods and services for a certain time period). The algebraic representation is: Y = F ( K , L ) The Production Function Income is some function of our given inputs Let’s analyze the supply and demand for goods, and see how much output is produced at any given time and how this output is allocated among alternative uses. Key Assumption: The Production Function has constant returns to scale. z z z Key Assumption:
  • 5. Chapter Seven 5 This assumption lets us analyze all quantities relative to the size of the labor force. Set z = 1/L. Y/ L = F ( K / L , 1 ) Output Per worker is some function of the amount of capital per worker Constant returns to scale imply that the size of the economy as measured by the number of workers does not affect the relationship between output per worker and capital per worker. So, from now on, let’s denote all quantities in per worker terms in lower case letters. Here is our production function: , where f(k) = F(k,1). This is a constant that can be ignored. y = f( k )
  • 6. Chapter Seven 6 MPK = f(k + 1) – f (k) y k f(k) The production function shows how the amount of capital per worker k determines the amount of output per worker y = f(k). The slope of the production function is the marginal product of capital: if k increases by 1 unit, y increases by MPK units. 1 MPK Chapter 8
  • 7. Chapter Seven 7 consumption per worker depends on savings rate (between 0 and 1) Output per worker consumption per worker investmen t per worker y = c + i 1) c = (1-s)y 2) y = (1-s)y + i 3) 4) i = sy Investment = savings. The rate of saving s is the fraction of output devoted to investment. Chapter 8
  • 8. Chapter Seven 8 Here are two forces that influence the capital stock: • Investment: expenditure on plant and equipment. • Depreciation: wearing out of old capital; causes capital stock to fall. Recall investment per worker i = s y. Let’s substitute the production function for y, we can express investment per worker as a function of the capital stock per worker: i = s f(k) This equation relates the existing stock of capital k to the accumulation of new capital i. Chapter 8
  • 9. Chapter Seven 9 Investment, s f(k) Output, f (k) c (per worker) i (per worker) y (per worker) The saving rate s determines the allocation of output between consumption and investment. For any level of k, output is f(k), investment is s f(k), and consumption is f(k) – sf(k). y k Chapter 8
  • 10. Chapter Seven 10 Impact of investment and depreciation on the capital stock: Δk = i –δk Change in capital stock Investment Depreciation Remember investment equals savings so, it can be written: Δk = s f(k) – δk δ k k δ k Depreciation is therefore proportional to the capital stock. Chapter 8
  • 11. Chapter Seven 11 Investment and depreciation Capital per worker, k i* = δk* k * k 1 k 2 At k*, investment equals depreciation and capital will not change over time. Below k*, investment exceeds depreciation, so the capital stock grows. Investment, s f(k) Depreciation, δk Above k*, depreciation exceeds investment, so the capital stock shrinks. Chapter 8
  • 12. Chapter Seven 12 Investment and depreciation Capital per worker, k i* = δk* k1 * k2 * Depreciation, δk Investment, s1 f(k) Investment, s2f(k) The Solow Model shows that if the saving rate is high, the economy will have a large capital stock and high level of output. If the saving rate is low, the economy will have a small capital stock and a low level of output. An increase in the saving rate causes the capital stock to grow to a new steady state. Chapter 8
  • 13. Chapter Seven 13 The steady-state value of k that maximizes consumption is called the Golden Rule Level of Capital. To find the steady-state consumption per worker, we begin with the national income accounts identity: and rearrange it as: c = y - i. This equation holds that consumption is output minus investment. Because we want to find steady-state consumption, we substitute steady-state values for output and investment. Steady-state output per worker is f (k*) where k* is the steady-state capital stock per worker. Furthermore, because the capital stock is not changing in the steady state, investment is equal to depreciation δk*. Substituting f (k*) for y and δk* for i, we can write steady-state consumption per worker as c* = f (k*) - δk*. y - c + i Chapter 8
  • 14. Chapter Seven 14 c*= f (k*) - δk*. According to this equation, steady-state consumption is what’s left of steady-state output after paying for steady-state depreciation. It further shows that an increase in steady-state capital has two opposing effects on steady-state consumption. On the one hand, more capital means more output. On the other hand, more capital also means that more output must be used to replace capital that is wearing out. The economy’s output is used for consumption or investment. In the steady state, investment equals depreciation. Therefore, steady-state consumption is the difference between output f (k*) and depreciation δk*. Steady-state consumption is maximized at the Golden Rule steady state. The Golden Rule capital stock is denoted k*gold, and the Golden Rule consumption is c*gold. δ k k δ k Output, f(k) c *gold k*gold Chapter 8
  • 15. Chapter Seven 15 Let’s now derive a simple condition that characterizes the Golden Rule level of capital. Recall that the slope of the production function is the marginal product of capital MPK. The slope of the δk* line is δ. Because these two slopes are equal at k*gold, the Golden Rule can be described by the equation: MPK = δ. At the Golden Rule level of capital, the marginal product of capital equals the depreciation rate. Keep in mind that the economy does not automatically gravitate toward the Golden Rule steady state. If we want a particular steady-state capital stock, such as the Golden Rule, we need a particular saving rate to support it. Chapter 8
  • 16. Chapter Seven 16 The basic Solow model shows that capital accumulation, alone, cannot explain sustained economic growth: high rates of saving lead to high growth temporarily, but the economy eventually approaches a steady state in which capital and output are constant. To explain the sustained economic growth, we must expand the Solow model to incorporate the other two sources of economic growth. So, let’s add population growth to the model. We’ll assume that the population and labor force grow at a constant rate n. Chapter 8
  • 17. Chapter Seven 17 Like depreciation, population growth is one reason why the capital stock per worker shrinks. If n is the rate of population growth and δ is the rate of depreciation, then (δ + n)k is break-even investment, which is the amount necessary to keep constant the capital stock per worker k. Investment, break-even investment Capital per worker, k k * Break-even investment, (δ + n)k Investment, s f(k) For the economy to be in a steady state, investment s f(k) must offset the effects of depreciation and population growth (δ + n)k. This is shown by the intersection of the two curves. An increase in the saving rate causes the capital stock to grow to a new steady state. Chapter 8
  • 18. Chapter Seven 18 Investment, break-even investment Capital per worker, k k* 1 Investment, s f(k) (δ + n1)k An increase in the rate of population growth shifts the line representing population growth and depreciation upward. The new steady state has a lower level of capital per worker than the initial steady state. Thus, the Solow model predicts that economies with higher rates of population growth will have lower levels of capital per worker and therefore lower incomes. k* 2 (δ + n2)k An increase in the rate of population growth from n1 to n2 reduces the steady-state capital stock from k*1 to k*2. Chapter 8
  • 19. Chapter Seven 19 The change in the capital stock per worker is: Δk = i – (δ+n)k Now, let’s substitute sf(k) for i: Δk = (sfk) – (δ+n)k This equation shows how new investment, depreciation, and population growth influence the per-worker capital stock. New investment increases k, whereas depreciation and population growth decrease k. When we did not include the “n” variable in our simple version—we were assuming a special case in which the population growth was 0. Chapter 8
  • 20. Chapter Seven 20 In the steady state, the positive effect of investment on the capital per worker just balances the negative effects of depreciation and population growth. Once the economy is in the steady state, investment has two purposes: 1) Some of it, (δk*), replaces the depreciated capital, 2) The rest, (nk*), provides new workers with the steady state amount of capital. Capital per worker, k * k* ' The Steady State Investment,s f (k ) Break-even Investment,(δ + n) k Break-even investment, (δ + n') k An increase in the rate of growth of population will lower the level of output per worker. s f (k ) Chapter 8
  • 21. Chapter Seven 21 • In the long run, an economy’s saving determines the size of k and thus y. • The higher the rate of saving, the higher the stock of capital and the higher the level of y. • An increase in the rate of saving causes a period of rapid growth, but eventually that growth slows as the new steady state is reached. Conclusion: although a high saving rate yields a high steady-state level of output, saving by itself cannot generate persistent economic growth. Chapter 8
  • 22. Chapter Seven 22 Solow growth model Steady state Golden Rule level of capital Chapter 8