This document discusses India's natural gas supply chain and demand forecasting for LNG. It provides an overview of India's natural gas mix including domestic production, pipeline imports, and LNG imports. The LNG value chain is examined including exploration and production, liquefaction, shipping, regasification, and distribution. Case studies of Petronet LNG and Shell Hazira's LNG operations in India are presented. Supply chain risks are discussed along with demand analysis and projections showing India's increasing reliance on LNG imports to meet energy needs.

1. Supply Chain of LNG
Business and Demand
Forecasting of LNG in India
Rajeev Gandhi Institute of Petroleum Technology MBA 2011-13
Presented by:
Atul Bhatt M-11-004
Kamal Pant M-11-007

2. Contents
 Introduction
 India NG mix
 Gas import Options
 LNG importing contracts
 LNG value Chain
 Case Study: PLL
 Case study: Shell Hazira
 Supply Chain Risks & Mitigations
 Demand Analysis
 Conclusion

3. Introduction
 Natural Gas is playing a vital role in meeting
global energy demands.
 Last 30 years a shift of global energy mix
towards natural gas is being witnessed and
the importance is poised to increase in future.
 In India, total production of natural gas in
2010 was 50.9 BCM while consumption was
61.9 BCM, the gap was bridged was more
costly LNG.
 India needs to look for alternatives for
meeting its energy demand if it has to sustain
its GDP growth.

4. India Natural Gas Mix
 Domestic Production
 Cross-country Pipelines
 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
Since the cross-country pipelines
option is mired in geo-poilitical
issues, LNG is poised to be the
solution to bridge the demand-supply
gap.

5. GAS IMPORT OPTIONS
Turkmenistan
Delhi
Iran
Qatar, Oman Dahej
Myanmar
Malaysia, Indonesia
Australia
Yemen
Cochin
LNG imports would supplement
Gas Pipeline Import gas pipeline imports and help in
development of pipeline grid
LNG Import

6. LNG Importing Options
 Spot market
 Short Term contract
 Long Term contract

7. LNG Value Chain
 E&P
 Liquefaction
 Shipping
 Regasification
 Transport

8. LNG Route to Gas Value Chain- Up/ Mid/ Down stream
NGL
Extraction Liquefaction
Gas
Sweetening
LNG send-out pipeline
Gas
Production
CGD Network
R-Gas Terminal
Pipelines

9. ENP
 Natural gas is discovered during the
search for oil.
 The activities under E&P extend from
1. exploring, drilling and assessing new
sources.
2. executing projects for developing
those reserves.
3. planning and running production
operations.

10. Liquefaction
 The liquefaction process can purify the
LNG to almost 100 percent methane.
 Cooling the clean feed gas by using
refrigerants.
 Temperature of approximately -161°C.
 By liquefying the gas, its volume is
reduced by a factor of 600.

11. Transportation
 Membrane Type
 Spherical Type

12. Regasification
 This occurs at import terminal.
 Heat exchange using seawater to
warm up the gas.
 The vaporized gas is then regulated
for pressure and enters the pipeline
system as natural gas.

13. Transport as Gas
 Pipelines
 Trucks (Cascades)
For residential & commercial use as
fuel or for power generation.

14. Petronet LNG Supply Chain
IOCL
Qatar BPCL
Petronet LNG-
Dahej
Spot GAIL
Trading
LNG Taral
Gas Market

15. Shell Hazira Supply Chain
HVJ
Malaysia
LNG
Dahej-Uran
Pipeline
Oman LNG
Shell Hazira
GSPL
Qatargas 4
EWPL

16. Supply Chain Risks & Mitigation
1. Political and Regulatory
 The risk of cost overruns on the political
and regulatory relationship with the host
government.
 Must learn how to manage political and
regulatory risks.

17. Supply Chain Risks &
Mitigation
2. Safety & Security
 Consequence-based approach
 Risk-based approach
3. Environmental Impact
 Strict review and compliance
 Thoughtful planning and risk analysis

18. Supply Chain Risks &
Mitigation
4. Public perception
 Active and continuous engagement of
the public and recognition of the local
community.
 Engage stakeholders early in the
process and to provide all the
necessary information.
 Developers should also use public
relations and media relations
effectively.

19. 10.0
30.0
40.0
60.0
0.0
20.0
50.0
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
All figures in MTOE.
2008
2009
2010
Source :BP Statistics 2012
Consumption and Production Pattern of natural gas
2011

20. Consumption and Production Pattern of Coal
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
All figures in MTOE.
Source :BP Statistics 2012

21. 100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
0.0
20.0
60.0
80.0
40.0
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Deficit
Consumption and Production Pattern of Crude oil
Production
Consumption
Source :BP Statistics 2012
All figures in MTOE.

22. Dynamics among LNG, Crude oil & Coal
45
40
35
30
25
20 % Change NG
% Change Crude
15 % Change Coal
10
5
0
-5
-10
All figures in MTOE.
Source :BP Statistics 2012

23. Average Growth rate
Coal
Crude oil
Natural Gas
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00
Source :BP Statistics 2012

24. Energy Requirements from Crude, Coal & NG
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
All figures in MTOE.
Source :BP Statistics 2012

25. LNG Requirements
800.0
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
All figures in MTOE.
Source :BP Statistics 2012

26. Regasification requirement
60 58
51
50
46
40
40
35
30
30
26
22
20 18
14
11
10 8
5
3
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
All figures in MTOE.
Source :BP Statistics 2012

27. Conclusion
 To bridge demand-supply gap huge re-
gasification capacity is needed.
 Two LNG terminals are currently in operations
with 2 more facilities coming up in less than a
year time & 4 more units are planned.
 It is envisaged that the capacity will be
augmented by 50 MMTPA by the year 2020
changing the energy dynamics of the country.

28. References
 BP Statistics 2012
 tepco.com
 eia.gov.in
 mospi.nic.in
 For any more clarifications mail us @
 atulbhatt2005@gmail.com
 kamal.h.pant@gmail.com

29. Thank You!!!