The document proposes research plans for the Limpopo Basin Focal Project. The project aims to identify agricultural water interventions that can reduce poverty and enhance food security in the basin. It will identify existing data, fill knowledge gaps through short studies, and create a stakeholder network map. The project team is diverse with experts from various universities and organizations. Key work packages include analyzing water availability, poverty levels, water productivity, and institutions. The project expects to identify intervention packages, specify further research needs, and influence policies through stakeholder engagement.

1. Limpopo Basin Focal Project –
Proposed Research Plans
P dR h Pl
Douglas J. Merrey, Project Leader,
FANRPAN, & Litha Magingxa, Limpopo
Basin Coordinator, ARC-South Africa
Ca , Co o b a, 5 eb ua y 008
Cali, Colombia, 1-5 February 2008

2. Overview
O i
1.
1 Introducing the Limpopo River
Basin-[cut to save time]
2. The LBFP Team
3. Goals and Objectives
4. Approach of the LBFP: Research
5. Approach of the LBFP: Stakeholder
Consultations
6. Expected products
7. Anticipated Outcomes and Impacts

3. The Team-1
Team 1
FANRPAN and ARC joint venture
ARC leads Water Availability and Knowledge
Management WPs
FANRPAN leads Institutions and Interventions WP
and overall project
Close working relationship with Basin Coordinator
IWMI and GWP SA regional partners
GWP-SA
IWMI Leads Water Productivity WP and is
associated with +/- 8 CPWF projects in basin
GWP and FANRPAN will co-lead stakeholder
d ill l d t k h ld
consultations
University of Malawi—leads Poverty Analysis
WP

4. The T
Th Team-2
2
National universities: Botswana, Eduardo
Mondlane (UEM, Mozambique), Pretoria, Li
M dl (UEM M bi ) P t i Limpopo
[new], Zimbabwe
Mozambique Institute of Agricultural Research
(IIAM)
UEM & IIAM have on-going CPWF & other projects
in Limpopo
U of Botswana has ongoing hydrology work
Pretoria, Limpopo, Zi b b
P t i Li Zimbabwe h
have ongoing social
i i l
science research in Limpopo
Two independent consultants (one was leader of
CP 47))
Team is large and diverse, but highly experienced
and professional
Will be complemented by students (10% of the total
budget)

5. Goals
To identify agricultural water
interventions whose implementation
will reduce poverty and enhance food
food,
health, and environmental security in
the Limpopo Basin and beyond
p p y
To identify gaps in knowledge about
agricultural water management
g g
options in the basin requiring further
research

6. Objectives To
Objectives—To achieve the goals
To identify, organize, synthesize and make
y g y
widely available existing data and knowledge on
the Limpopo Basin
To selectively fill gaps in knowledge where
possible th
ibl through short targeted studies
h h tt t d t di
To prepare a register of Basin Stakeholders and
scientists as a basis for creating a “network
map” and dynamic scientific “community of
practice”
Drawing on this knowledge base, identify specific
“intervention packages” for reducing poverty
intervention packages
through agricultural water management
improvements

7. Key Assumptions
Efficacy of a “basin” perspective as opposed to
sectoral, national
sectoral national, etc
River basins as natural “systems” [but not social
systems]
Multiple scales: farm, micro-watershed, sub-basin,
whole b i
h l basin
Interdisciplinary systems perspective
Low agricultural water productivity is
characteristic,
characteristic and a major factor underlying
poverty
Is it only ‘productivity’ or is it also ‘access’?
Our proposal emphasized access
Agricultural water management is an entry point
for reducing poverty
But evidence that reforming water institutions
without reference to land reform does not work

8. Research Approach-General
R hA hG l
Make
M k use of existing data bases
f i i d b
Especially detailed for RSA (ARC, IWMI)
IWMI has considerable data but questions on
how to access
Build on outputs from CPWF and other
on-going research projects
i h j t
Not clear how to get access to CPWF Project
outputs
Use students strategically to fill gaps,
provide analytical support

9. WP 2-Availability & Access-1
2 A il bilit A 1
Highly variable rainfall 180
with frequent extreme 160
events 140
120
Much of basin—rain fed
T o ta l ( m m )
100
agriculture is very risky 80
60
Botswana, South Africa— 40
considerable 20
development for mining
mining, 0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
industry, urban use
Rainfall Penman-Monteith Potential Evapotransiration 50% PE
Impacts of climate
change—more extreme
g
events, changes in Mean Monthly Rainfall
f
timing, & lower average and Mean Monthly
rainfall Potential
Evapotranspiration for
the Olifants Catchment
–McCartney et al. 2004

10. WP 2-Availability & Access-2
2 A il bilit A 2
Will update existing Pitman Model
Build on work already done by ARC, Univ.
of Botswana, & countries
Outputs:
O t t
Updated model and training in use
GIS based
GIS-based water availability and (?)
hydronomic zone maps;
An irrigation and rainfed agriculture risk
assessment [indications of huge trade offs of
irrigated area and risk];
Water accounting graphs and diagrams
Scientific
S i tifi papers, etc.
t

11. WP 1 Poverty Analysis-1
P t A l i 1
Changes in Water Poverty Index, 1994-2005, in the
Olifants Catchment – Magagula et al 2006

12. WP 1 Poverty Analysis-2
P t A l i 2
If we can find data:
Head
H d count i d
t index, P
Poverty Line, Poverty
t Li P t
Gap
Gini Coefficient (measure of inequality)
Water Poverty Index
Probability of being poor in a given year—
probit analysis
Need to link poverty maps with water
availability—likely feasible in some areas
but not universally for the basin
Will make use of existing case studies,
g ,
qualitative data and try to use students to
add to this
Example: use household typologies done in 3
sites over 2 3 seasons under CP 30 [wetlands
2-3
and livelihoods]

13. Gini Coefficient: Distribution of Estimated Direct
and Indirect Rural Water Use in the Olifants-
Cullis & van Koppen
Percentage of Total Rural Use (%)
100%
90%
U
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Percentage of Rural Households (%)
Line of Equality Direct Water Use Indirect Use
Planned outputs include:
•Water-poverty maps and data bases (household types,
gender) linked to water availability, agro-ecological systems,
etc
•Scientific report on water-poverty relationships in the basin
water poverty basin,
as a contribution to intervention packages

14. WP 3 W t Productivity-1
Water P d ti it 1
IWMI will use existing datasets, e.g., Olifants
catchment dataset
RS datasets (global and local)
Spatial and temporal variability of use & users
Uses, users (WARMS database), and their distribution
Hydrological diversions s actual se
H d ologi al – di e sions vs a t al use
WEAP - Water Evaluation And Planning modeling –
results for the Olifants
Synthesis of CPWF experience
Make opportunistic use of smaller data bases from the
basin (and WARMS for Limpopo Water Management
Area)
A key issue is other uses have far higher $/drop
returns—can we use Prasad et al. 2006
methodology in other parts of the basin?
What is CPWF position?—it emphasized “agricultural”
water productivity, but this may not be as critical to
p y, y
poverty reduction and development in RSA and Botswana

15. Water P d ti it 2
W t Productivity-2
Water Productivity by Sector in the Olifants
Basin —Prasad et al. 2006

16. Water P d ti it O t t
W t Productivity--Outputs
Assessment of water productivity
A t f t d ti it
for main agricultural systems
Maps and other products from
quantitative analysis
Analysis of opportunities for
improving water productivity
Analysis of opportunities to reduce
y pp
poverty through enhanced water
productivity

17. WP 4 Institutional Analysis:
Working Hypotheses
Outcomes of any interventions will
depend on the policy and i tit ti
d d th li d institutional
l
environment
Comprehensive Assessment Chapter 5
Single-dimensional i t
Si l di i l interventions are
ti
inadequate—need practical packages of
interventions including institutional &
policy innovations
In the Limpopo Basin, lack of access to
reliable water supply is a more important
cause of poverty than is low
productivity—especially for women
Cullis & van Koppen—gini coefficient for water
access in Olifants is 0 96
0.96

18. Analytical framework

19. Institutional Analysis--Outputs
I tit ti lA l i O t t
1.
1 An analytical overview of laws policies institutions
laws, policies,
(informal as well as formal) and interventions
currently being implemented or under
consideration in the basin or through SADC;
2. An i
A inventory of stakeholders and institutions in the
t f t k h ld d i tit ti i th
basin as a basis for the network map (led by
Knowledge Base group);
3. An issues report to g
p guide the scoping p
p g phase
research;
4. Interdisciplinary case studies of selected promising
interventions, especially institutional innovations;
and
5. Scientific papers.
Important: Engagement with stakeholders from
‘top to bottom’ will be critical for success!

20. WP 5 Interventions
I t ti
Definition: Human action that
f
significantly changes or contributes
to: water availability access and
availability,
productivity
Conceived as intervention “packages ”
packages,
not single-dimensional

21. Reaching out to Stakeholders
R hi t t St k h ld
R4D means we must place high priority
l hi h i i
on application, impact of our work
Impact Pathways; Network models
Stakeholders--Large number, wide
diversity, at multiple levels
Communications through multiple media in
addition to consultations
All project partners have complementary
strengths in terms of stakeholder
relationships—need to build on these
FANRPAN and GWP-SA will lead

22. Interventions
inventory
Availability Productivity Access
1. Infrastructure 1.1 1.1 1.1
1.2 1.2 1.2
1.3
13 1.3
13 1.3
2. Technology 2.1 2.1 2.1
2.2 2.2 2.2
2.3 2.3 2.3
3.1 3.1 3.1
3. Policies& 3.2 3.2 3.2
Institutions 3.3 3.3 3.3
4.1 4.1 4.1
4. New 4.2 4.2 4.2
Knowledge 4.3 4.3 4.3
5.

23. WP 5 Interventions: OUTPUTS
Output 1: A list of potential significant
p p g
intervention packages for the basin
Output 2: Qualitative and quantitative analysis
of likely impacts on water use and productivity
Output 3: Strategic interventions for the basin
Output 4: Policy briefs

24. Strategic interventions for the basin
1. Identify h pothesi ed inte ention
Identif hypothesized intervention
packages which are appropriate
2.
2 Test hypotheses through consultations
with key stakeholders
3. Assess these hypothesized packages
yp p g
through case studies
4. Define assessment criteria and target
population, consult with stakeholders
l ti lt ith t k h ld
at various levels
5.
5 Learn experiences from other BFPs
BFPs.

25. STAKEHOLDER MAPPING
FANRPAN
Network of FANR government, civil society, research
institutions in 12 countries—regional (e.g., SADC,
COMESA) & national
National “nodes” convene policy dialogues, promote
p y g ,p
policy research
Especially strong in agriculture sector
GWP-SA
Network of water-oriented i tit ti
N t k f t i t d institutions: government,t
civil society; part of global network; close links to
Waternet, SADC Water Division
Strong on local civil society links as well
Country water Partnerships—convene stakeholder
dialogues
Especially strong in water resources and services
sectors
We will build on these networks and those of other
partners

26. WP 6 Knowledge Management
Supports other WPs
Facilitates
F ilit t access to data and information (spatial
t d t di f ti ( ti l
and non-spatial)
Management of meta-data base, web site [in
IDIS??? seems
IDIS???---seems not operational]
Facilitates data custodianship, networking
Project brochure in English and Portuguese
Support team knowledge sharing and wider
sharing,
stakeholder consultations
Knowledge products: CDs, DVDs, publications,
newsletters,
newsletters virtual reality tool
ARC leads: experience developing and managing
AGIS (Agric. Geo-referenced Info System)
(http://www.agis.agric.za/agisweb/agis.html),
custodian of IDIS-Limpopo
Invited ReSAKSS now re-considering this.

27. Project O t t
P j t Outputs
Each WP specifies its outputs
p p
Five main outputs in proposal:
1. Revised Limpopo Basin Profile
including GIS-based atlas of water-
poverty
2. Validated agricultural water
management “intervention packages”
3. Network map of stakeholders
4. Demo of “ i
D f “virtual reality” tool
l li ” l
(www.naledi3D.com)
5. Specification of topics needing further
research

28. Anticipated Outcomes and Impacts
Outcomes:
O t
New insights and knowledge on
water-poverty
water poverty nexus in Basin
developed and shared
Potentially significant intervention
packages identified and
workshopped
Gaps in knowledge needing further
research specified and prioritized

29. Impacts
I t
Our strength is the diverse and strong
relationships of partners with key decision makers
l ti hi f t ith k d i i k
and stakeholder representatives:
SADC, LIMPCOM, National, civil society
Alliance of agriculture and water
LBFP as a means to further enhance CPWF Basin
Coordinators’ influence
Strong emphasis on stakeholder consultation from
phase 1
To help us shape outcomes, and to achieve a high
level of buy-in
No promises, but reasonable likelihood to
influence policies, investments, and
implementation strategies

30. www.waterandfood.org
www.fanrpan.org
f
www.arc.agric.za/limpopo