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LABOUR MARKET SCENARIOS FOR 2030: People and Work – How will the South African Labour Market Change over the next 14 years?
This document outlines four scenarios for how the South African labor market may change by 2030 based on key trends and flags: 1. "Lone Wolf" - Increased outsourcing and freelancing leads to job losses at large employers while startups and failures increase, exacerbating unemployment and inequality. Unions lose power and central bargaining collapses. 2. "Squabbling Vultures" - Resistance to changes and lack of growth leads to high inflation, poverty, and corruption. Unions become more confrontational while employers pull out of bargaining structures. 3. "Blind Sheep" - Low growth continues due to instability and inflexibility. New cooperation helps reduce unrest but improvements are
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LABOUR MARKET SCENARIOS FOR 2030: People and Work – How will the South African Labour Market Change over the next 14 years?
- 1. LABOUR MARKET SCENARIOSFOR 2030: People and Work – How will the South African Labour Market Change over the next 14 years? Marius Meyer @SABPP1 @sabpp_1 TOP ACHIEVERS AWARDS, 28 OCTOBER 2016 Department of Industrial Psychology & People Management
- 2. It was adifficult academic year
- 3. It was adifficult year in business
- 4. Policy goals ofNDP • Maintain fiscal discipline & macro-economic stability; • Achieve sustained GDP growth of 5,4%; • Reduce unemployment to 14% by 2020 and to 6% by 2030; • Overall civil service to improve efficiency and implementation; • Promote market competitiveness; • Reduce cost of living; • Reduce impediments to investment; • Create jobs via entrepreneurship and reduce regulation, as well as a public works programme.
- 5. Where are wenow? “We are where we are as a result of what unethical leadership did to us as a nation.” Chief Justice, Judge Mogoeng Mogoeng
- 6. SABPP Labour marketscenarios Facilitated by top scenario expert, Clem Sunter Compiled by Penny Abbott
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- 8. SA Flags towatch (IRMSA) 1. Corruption 2. Quality of infrastructure 3. Inclusive leadership 4. Pockets of excellence - can they be replicated? 5. Entrepreneurial revival
- 9. Flags to watchin labour market Flags are key trends (unfolding events). 1. Embracing the new world of work 2. Reaching an inclusive, collaborative approach to labour market development
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- 11. Scenario 1: LoneWolf • Many employers innovating & making fundamental changes to how work is done. • More outsourcing & use of freelancers leads to decrease in employment among large employers. • Start-up business increasing, medium-size decreasing & failures increasing. • Disruptive business models increasing, traditional businesses exit market. • ICT & services grow, unskilled trapped into low wage. • Economic growth accelerating, but unemployment & income inequality accelerating – high levels of social & industrial unrest. • People move from formal to informal sector – no suitable model of pay & benefits to protect people. • Unions try to protect members – traditional industries disappear. • Unions lose membership & credibility, new unions spring up & cause unprotected strike action due to lack of expertise & infrastructure. • Employer organisations fragment & lose power. Central bargaining councils collapse, employee benefit schemes transferred to insurance firms. • Government tries to keep control – tough labour laws. • More corruption & uncompetitive behaviour, education better; mismatches.
- 12. Scenario 2: Squabbling vultures •Resistance by all parties to recognise fundamental, technology-driven changes to world of work results in continued low economic growth as SA products become less attractive & less competitive. • Lack of consumer led economic growth leads to higher inflation, less employment and more poverty - income fail to keep up with high cost of living. • Corruption & anti-competitive practices flourish. • NDP remains a paper exercise. • Business insists on free market approach, resists government intervention and pulls out of centralised bargaining structures. • BBBEE fails to be broad-based – benefits few. • Unions losing members & political influence, become more confrontational – business to their knees, more unemployment. • More laws to protect workers; poor economic growth. • Employee benefit schemes transferred to insurance companies. • Education system fails to improve – low employment. • Employers bring in skilled & professional workers, more illegal immigrants.
- 13. Scenario 3: Blindsheep • Economic growth still low due to instability of private sector & SOEs to adapt to new world of work. • 3 parties recognise inderdependence – moves towards co-determination to reduce industrial and social unrest. • Labour market institutions remain largely unchanged, but more cooperation in dialogue, willing to abandon fixed positions. • Some improvements in education, but still on old world of work – skills miss requirements of new world of work. • Increased levels of trust. • Corruption & anti-competitive behaviour decreases. • Collaborative, trusting relationships unsustainable due to low economic growth – the new partnerships see no results and therefore fragment.
- 14. Scenario 4: Pride ofLions • Economic growth accelerates on the back of innovative and adaptive private sector, supported through social compacts between government, business & labour. • New ways of dealing with protection of vulnerable employees; new ways of employing & training young people, new ways to match education system to needs of new world of work. • New structures & collaborative approach enable flexibility as the structure of the economy and completely new business models emerge, flourish and are in turn transcended and disappear. • To reach social compacts, the parties have abandoned fixed, ideologically- based approaches and found new ways to accommodate genuine and fundamental interests of different segments of the population. • Government and social partners have implemented the NDP, SA has an efficient and politically independent civil service and as a result, service delivery has improved and the lives of South Africans improve. • Inequality and unemployment reduced, skills levels & labour stability improve and SA’s overall competitiveness improves (better ratings agencies scores).
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- 16. Closing thought Let uswork together to build strong future-fit organisations and a functional labour market. “Lions that fail to work as a team will struggle to bring down even a limping buffalo.” Minister of Finance, Pravin Gordhan
- 17. Conclusion HR Academics andProfessionals and their organisations should take an active role in shaping the future. Let us start courageous conversations and commit to real engagement and being prepared to accept outcomes other than those which each party prefers. A deep grasp of the socio-political environment is required. Build relationships and understanding to create a new way forward. We need to reflect on the scenarios and commit to collaboration in order to influence the future. Congratulations to all the achievers!