How to manage the future day 1
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This document provides an agenda for a futurism workshop titled "How to Manage the Future?" hosted by an organization called TheBeyonders. The agenda covers topics like inspiration, studying the past and present, envisioning different future scenarios, and concluding the workshop with presentations on December 12th. It also outlines grading principles for evaluating alternative future scenarios that will account for factors like methodology, storytelling style, and conclusions.
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How to manage the future day 1
- 1. PAG E THEBEYONDERS 1 HOW TO MANAGE THE FUTURE? FUTUR THINKING WORKSHOP
- 2. FUTURIST CREATE IMPACT BY SHARING KNOWLEDGE 46 89 15 20+ STRATEGIC DESIGNER - USER EXPERIENCE ARCHITECT
- 3. LEARN & SHARE 13 4 16 20+49 STRATEGISTMARKETING NINJA - C-LEVEL MENTOR
- 4. PAG E 4 WE ARE A DIFFERENT KIND OF STRATEGY, INNOVATION AND DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION AGENCY THEBEYONDERS
- 7. 7 HTMTF - CURSUS AGENDA Inspiration Theory, warmup Past study Present Status quo future Alternates futures Conclusions 18 november 25th november 29th november 02d december 03d december 11th december Presentation 12th december
- 9. GRADING PRINCIPLES Repartition 60% 40% Content Alternative future scenarios and global conclusions Status quo scenario and scenario conclusions Scoring parameters Method and toolkit use and documentation Storytelling Style and lay out Clarity, insights and conclusions
- 10. INSTANT FUTURE! EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED
- 11. DISCLAIMER
- 12. DISCLAIMER
- 13. DISCLAIMER
- 14. THE FUTURE?
- 15. “Past success is no guarantee of future success” Steven Van Belleghem
- 16. “This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us” Western Union internal memo (1876)
- 17. “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers” Thomas Watson, IBM Chairman (1943)
- 18. Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop.” Time Magazine (1966)
- 19. “There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their home” Ken Olsen Digital Equipement Corp. Founder (1977)
- 20. “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.” Steve Ballmer, Microsoſt CEO (April 2007)
- 21. “Is Netflix a threat? Is the Albanian army going to take over the world?” Jeffery Bewkles CEO Time Warner, (2010)
- 22. “Success breeds complacency Complacency breeds failure Only the paranoid survive “ Andy Grove (former Intel CEO)
- 23. 23 SUCCESS “A Successful person isn’t necessarily better than her less successful peers at solving problems; Her pattern recognition facilities have just learned what problems are worth solving.” Ray Kurzweil
- 25. AI @WORK
- 27. CHANGE3
- 28. 28 IN THE ROOM
- 29. THE FUTURE
- 31. 31Source : Duval union RELEASE DATE : 1970 THE FUTURE SHOCK IS HAPPENING NOW! The trauma that results of going trough great changes in a short period of time
- 33. “Mankind will change more in the next 20 years, than in the last 300” Gerd Leonhard
- 34. 34 “Change means movement, movement means friction” Saul Alinsky
- 37. POST-DEMOCRACY
- 38. POST-DEMOCRACY Is privacy important, if you have nothing to hide? PRIVACY
- 39. POST-DEMOCRACY “Donnez moi 6 lignes écrites de la main du plus honnête homme, et j’y trouverai de quoi l’y faire pendre” Cardinal Richelieu "Give me 6 lines from the most honest man, I will find enough therein to hang him”
- 40. POST-DEMOCRACY
- 41. POST-DEMOCRACY
- 42. POST-DEMOCRACY
- 43. POST-DEMOCRACY Source : Financial Time
- 44. HACTIVISTS Anonymous, arab springs, whistleblowers
- 46. 46 PANEM ET CIRCENSES REAL TV EVERYWHERE
- 47. 47 PANEM ET CIRCENSES INFOBESITY & DESINFORMATION
- 49. THE MATRIX HAS YOU
- 50. THE MATRIX HAS YOU
- 51. 51 THE MATRIX HAS YOU
- 52. THE MATRIX HAS YOU
- 53. THE EGO HAS YOU
- 54. IDIOCRACY
- 55. IDIOCRACY READING TIME REPLACED BY SCREEN TIME
- 58. 58 IDIOCRACY 7" 11" 15" 2000" 2005" 2010" 2015" 9"Seconds" ? Average attention span since public internet ATTENTION FRAGMENTATION
- 59. 59 IDIOCRACY
- 61. 61 SKILL GAP
- 64. Source: Ray Kurzweil, “The singularity is near: when humans transcend biology”, p.67, The Viking Press, 2006. Datapoints between 2000 and 2012 represent BCA estimates ELECTROMECHANICAL SOLID STATE RELAY TRANSISTOR INTEGRATED CIRCUIT VACUUM TUBE 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 OPTICAL, QUANTUM, DNA COMPUTING HUMAN BRAIN MOUSE BRAIN 0 104 108 1012 1016 10-4 CORE I7 QUAD PENTIUM APPLE II ALTAIR 8800 UNVAC I COLOSSUS IBM TABULATOR ANALYTICAL ENGINE CALCULATIONSPERSECONDPER$1000 EXPONENTIALITY
- 65. 65 EXPONENTIALITY 4KB VS 17 KB
- 66. EXPONENTIALITY Storage capacity doubles every 18 months Computer power Storage KRYDER’S LAW
- 67. 67 KRYDER’S LAW 1956 : 5MB 2005 : 128MB 2014 : 128GB 24 000 000 $/GB 772 $/GB 1,2 $/GB
- 68. 68 KRYDER’S LAW 1956 : 5MB 2005 : 128MB 2014 : 128GB 24 000 000 $/GB 772 $/GB 1,2 $/GB 10 TRILLION FOLD IMPROVEMENTS
- 70. Bandwidth grows at least three times faster than computer power Computer power Bandwidth GILDER’S LAW EXPONENTIALITY
- 71. 71 DIAL UP ADSL BROADBAND SUPER BROADBAND DATE SPEED GILDER’S LAW EXPONENTIALITY
- 76. The value of a telecommunication network is proportional to the square of the number of users of the system (n2) Number of users Valueofnetwork METCALFE’S LAW EXPONENTIALITY
- 78. 2014 20132012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2002 2004 1992 1999 CellCost$/Watt Cumulative Installations, MWp 100 1 K 10 K 100 K 1 M 1 B $ 0.10 $ 10 $ 1 EXPONENTIALITY SWANSON’S LAW
- 79. $10K $100K $1M $10M $100M $1K 2001 2005 2010 2015 Moore’s Law Cost per Genome EXPONENTIALITY
- 80. EXPONENTIALITY Mid 90’s : 2.7 B$
- 81. EXPONENTIALITY 2017 : 99 $
- 82. Q1:97 Q1:01 Q1:05 Q1:09 Q1:13 25 50 0 Global PC (Desktop/Notebook) and Tablet Shipments by Quarter Q1:95– Q1:13 Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Tablets EXPONENTIALITY
- 84. EXPONENTIALITY
- 85. EXPONENTIALITY 50’s : building size computers IBM AN/FSQ-7 – 1958 Whirlwind I – 1951 UNIVAC 1101 - 1950
- 86. EXPONENTIALITY 60’s : room size computers CDC6600 - 1964 HP 2116A - 1966 DDP-116 i - 1965
- 87. EXPONENTIALITY 70’s : desk size computers (pionners) XEROX Parc - 1974 Apple I - 1976 Apple II - 1977
- 88. EXPONENTIALITY 80’s : desk size computers (maturity) Commodore VIC-20 - 1980 IBM pc - 1982 Apple Mac - 1984
- 89. EXPONENTIALITY 90’s : lap size computers Apple Mac portable - 1989 Apple PowerBook - 1991 IBM Thinkpad - 1995
- 90. EXPONENTIALITY 00’s : Hand size computers Apple iPhone - 2007 Amazon Kindle - 2007 Apple iPad - 2009
- 91. EXPONENTIALITY 10’s : wirst and object size computers Nest thermostat - 2011 Raspberry pie (25$) - 2012 Apple Watch - 2015
- 92. EXPONENTIALITY 20’s : cell size computers?
- 93. Global digital information created and shared each year - zettabytes 2 4 6 8 0 2005 2010 2015 Zettabytes EXPONENTIALITY 1 Zettabyte 1 000 Exabytes 1 000 000 Petabytes 1 000 000 000 Terabytes 1 000 000 000 000 Gigabytes 1/1 000 Yottabyte 1/1 000 000 Brontobyte 1 000 000 000 000 000 Megabytes
- 94. 1900 Knowledge doubling every century 1945 Knowledge doubling every 25 years 1982 Knowledge doubling every 12-13 months 2020 IBM predicts knowledge doubling every 11-12 hours Source : https://steemit.com/philosophy/@rsguardian/limitless-alih9vcs0x EXPONENTIALITY
- 95. EXPONENTIALITY
- 96. GDP WORLD GDP OVER THE LAST TWO MILLENNIA Total output of the world economy; adjusted for inflation and expressed in 2011 international dollars. $20 trillion $40 trillion $60 trillion $80 trillion $100 trillion $0 1 201515001000500 Source: World GDP – Our World In Data based on World Bank & Maddison (2017)
- 97. SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRENDS (1750-2010) EARTH SYSTEM TRENDS (1750-2010) Real GDP World Population Foreign Direct Investment Nitrous Oxide Carbon Dioxide Methane Primary energy use Urban population Fertilizer consumption Surface temperature Stratospheric ozone Ocean acidification Water useLarge dams Paper production Shrimp aquaculture Marine fish capture Coastal nitrogen Tele- communications Transportation International tourism Domesticated land Tropical forest loss Terrestrial biosphere degradation EXPONENTIALITY
- 98. 3750000 7500000 11250000 15000000 0 2003 2007 2009 2011 2012 3000000 300000 411422 1052803 15000000 ISBN numbers issued per year in US EXPONENTIALITY
- 100. ACCELERATION OF THE ACCELERATION We are here
- 101. SINGULARITY?
- 102. SINGULARITY
- 103. 103 VUCA
- 104. 104 FRAGMENTATION
- 105. IMPREDICTIBILITY
- 106. 106 IMPREDICTIBILITY
- 107. 107 IMPREDICTIBILITY
- 108. IMPREDICTIBILITY
- 109. IMPREDICTIBILITY
- 110. IMPREDICTIBILITY
- 111. IMPREDICTIBILITY
- 112. 112 IMPREDICTIBILITY
- 113. 113 MITIGATION
- 114. 114 LAWS OF PHYSIC
- 115. AMARA’S LAW “we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
- 116. AMARA’S LAW “we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
- 117. 117
- 118. EVOLUTION Physiological needs Security needs Social needs Self esteem Meaning
- 121. 121 12 000 YEARS AGRICULTURE WRITTING PRINTING STEAM OVER 12 000 years
- 122. 122 INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTIONS IND 1st 2d 3d 4th INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTIONS
- 123. JEREMY RIFKIN Economist KLAUS SCHWAB World economic forum co-founder 3d Industrial revolution New Energy/Communication/Transportation paradigm 4th Industrial revolution Internet has an industrial revolution PERSPECTIVES
- 126. 126 3D INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION The digital age 1969
- 127. 127 THE DIGITAL AGE INTERNET SOCIAL MOBILE CLOUDCOMPUTER
- 128. Paradigm shiſts everywhere DIGITAL AGE
- 129. DIGITAL AGE Paradigm shiſts From audience to user From media to content From monomedia to multimedia From periodicity to real time From scarcity to abundance From distribution to access From passive to interactive From linear to hypertext From support based to immaterial From album to single track From call a place to call a person
- 130. 130 ECONOMY 3.0
- 131. DIGITAL DARWNISM “The evolution of customer behaviour when society & technology evolve faster than one’s ability to adapt” - Brian Solis
- 132. EVERYWHERE 1995 + 2005 + 2015 + Music Photography Video Rental Print Media Tv Travel Retail Automotive Education Healthcare Banking/insurance 2020 All niches & safe markets will be subject to digital disruption From immaterial goods to everything 1995+ 2005+ 2015+ 2020 Music Photography Video rental Print media TV Travel Retail Automotive Education Healthcare Banking/Insurance All niches & safe markets will be subject to digital disruption Source : Duval Union
- 133. DIGITAL DARWINISM Kodak valuation decline
- 134. KODAKISATION 1976 : Near to monopolistic situation 1990 : One of the most valuable brand in the world 1991 : Introduce the 1st digital camera 2000 : Main sponsor of Olympic Games choose to promote celluloid film (more money on short term) 2003 : People starts to take pictures with mobile phones 2007 : The iPhone is released 2012 : Bankruptcy 2015 : Announce release of selfie sticks
- 136. 136 THE DATA ECONOMY
- 138. PLATFORMS The world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles The world’s most popular media owner, creates no content The most valuable retailer, has no inventory The world’s largest accommodation provider, owns no real estate
- 139. WINNER TAKES ALL
- 140. Ranked by n° of active users (01/2017) WINNER TAKES ALL
- 141. WINNER TAKES ALL Ranked by n° of active users (01/2017)
- 142. COMPETING WITH HOTELS using an ecosystem Source: PLATFORM THINKING Copyright © 2015 Sangeet Paul Choudary, Geoffrey Parker and Marshall Van Alstyne
- 143. 143 NEW WINNERS
- 144. 144 NEW WINNERS
- 145. 145 NEW WINNERS
- 146. GAFA want to spread the internet Access is a strategical business enabler for GAFA and GAFA alike … Not a business model GAFA ARE COMPETITORS
- 147. GAFA ARE PARTNERS
- 148. More info on Gafa GAFA ARE PARTNERS
- 149. 149 Baïdu Tecent XiomiAlibaba NEW WINNERS
- 150. 30,8 24 EXPECT THEM
- 151. 30,8 B$ 24 H Nov 2018 EXPECT THEM
- 152. 256 K SecNov 2017 transactions EXPECT THEM
- 154. 154 Omni Channel eRetail vs & Retail 28 « When information is free, Attention becomes expansive » - James Gleick THE ATTENTION ECONOMY
- 155. ABUNDANCE OF DATA
- 156. GLOBAL REACH
- 157. Source : Tristan Harris (TED)
- 159. “In the digital space We earn it, we spend it” BRIAN SOLIS ATTENTION IS A CURRENCY
- 160. THE USER CENTRIC ERA
- 163. EXPERIENCE ECONOMY $ 6.00 $ 5.00 $ 4.00 $ 3.00 $ 2.00 $ 1.00 Commodities Goods Services Experiences café en vrac Paquet de café café
- 166. Source : NIKE ADS
- 167. THE PURPOSE ECONOMY
- 168. BRAND ACTIVISM
- 169. 169 A NEW WORLD 33% Future: installation in progress
- 170. 170 BETTER OR WORST?
- 171. NEWS VS FACTS Hans Rosling
- 172. If it bleeds, it leads Popular expression
- 173. 173 SHOCK THERAPY
- 174. 174 BIASES
- 175. 175 BIASES
- 176. 176 BIASES “The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannise their teachers.”
- 177. 177 BIASES ― Socrates “The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.”
- 178. 178 BIASES The NEGATIVITY instinct: forgetting how the world really was before. It is not because some things are bad today that they cannot be better than they were before!
- 179. BIASES The GAP instinct, which makes us believe that the world is divided into two: 'them' (the 'developing' world) and 'us' (the 'developed' world). The authors prefer to talk about four levels of income, which they say give a far better picture.
- 180. 180 BIASES The STRAIGHT LINE instinct: the danger of extrapolating from a known variable. There are straight lines of course, but more oſten lines are curved or S-shaped; this is the case in demographics, for instance.
- 181. BIASES The FEAR instinct: some of our ancestral fears, justified at the time when we lived in caves, still haunt us today even though the situation has radically changed. And we have a tendency to grossly exaggerate modern threats such as terrorism, compared to other causes of death.
- 182. 182 BIASES The SIZE instinct: the tendency to look at individual figures without putting them in perspective. There are more than four million infant deaths (for 141 million births) per year in the world today, which is staggering and shocking. But in 1950 the number was 14.5 million for 97 million births. We also tend to look at individual victims and forget about the many victims who do not make it on to our TV screens.
- 183. 183 BIASES The GENERALISATION instinct: we divide the world into 'them' and 'us' and then think of the people in these groups as all being the same.
- 184. 184 BIASES The DESTINY instinct: best summed up by the phrase "things never change".
- 185. 185 BIASES The SINGLE PERSPECTIVE instinct: thinking that all problems have a single cause.
- 186. 186 BIASES The BLAME instinct (could also be called the 'conspiracy instinct'): it is always intellectually easier to find culprits rather than real causes.
- 187. BIASES The URGENCY instinct: pushing people to rush for solutions that are "simple, straightforward and… wrong"
- 188. BIASES
- 189. Every day ... 305.000 new people have access to clean water 295.000 new people have access to electricity 620.000 new people have access to internet Source : Hans Rosling via Dear Media “It’s still bad, but it getting better” Hans Rosling
- 190. 190 NEWS VS FACTS Life expectancy -100 years Today Literacy rate Democraties Poverty 51 y 32% 16 82% 81 y 85% 123 9%
- 191. FAMINE
- 192. 192 PRODUCTIVITY $20 trillion $40 trillion $60 trillion $80 trillion $100 trillion $0 1 201515001000500 Source: World GDP – Our World In Data based on World Bank & Maddison (2017)
- 193. THE LONG PEACE
- 194. 194 POPULATION
- 195. WARNING
- 196. WARNING WARS IMPROVING FOR 8 YEARS
- 197. WARNING FAMINE IMPROVING FOR 3 YEARS
- 198. WARNING DECLINE OF EXTREME POVERTY IS SLOWING DOWN
- 199. $3 $6 $9 $12 million $0 1963 99th percentile $1,457,201 1983 99th percentile $3,323,063 2016 99th percentile $10,400,000 Source: Urban Institute calculations from Survey of Financial Characteristics of Consumers 1962 (December 31), Survey of Changes in Family Finances 1963, and Survey of Consumer Finances 1983-2016 WARNING
- 203. 203 COLLAPSE
- 204. 204 FUTURE SPECTRUM
- 205. 205 FUTURISTS Optimist Pessimist Entrepreneurship / Private centric Institutional centric THE FUTURES’ GAP Abundance Scarcity
- 206. “We wanted flying cars, we got 140 characters” Peter Thiel