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LECTURE L04
ADJACENT POSSIBLE
The S-curve
Based on the notion of the Technical Life Cycle
Improvements in
performance varies
throughout the life
of the technology
Number of transistors on

an integrated circuit will double
in about 18-24 months
Moore’s Law
The Law of Accelerating Returns
	Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more
capable methods resulting from one stage of
evolutionary progress are used to create the next
stage.
	
	As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary
process increases exponentially over time.
Exponential World
Local and linear
Global and Exponential
Combinatorial
Ideas build upon Ideas
Every generation of
technology 

becomes a source for
new innovations
Web of Technology
Products are made using different parts
using many technologies - confection of
ideas
Gall’s Law
All complex systems that work, evolved from 

simpler system that worked
“I, Pencil” by Leonard E. Read
The most important single central
fact about a free market is that no
exchange takes place unless both
parties benefit.
— Milton Friedman
Toaster
Thomas Thwaits: The Toaster Project
Source:	TED.com
"Left to his own devices he couldn’t build a toaster.
He could just about make a sandwich 

and that was it."
— Mostly Harmless, Douglas Adams, 1992
“And that was something that reoccurred
throughout the project, was, the smaller the scale
you want to work on, the further back in time you
have to go”
— Thomas Thwaites
Layers of Technology
Technologies evolves layer by layer,
from simple to complex
technologies
Combinatory Process
New technology is created 

by combining other existing
technology in new ways
The Law of Disappearing Technology
When some technique is mastered,
it will “disappear” as something
obvious and trivial, and other more
useful things that are built on top of it
That means when technology
disappears
it becomes useful
The Law of Disappearing Technology
Electricity
The Law of Disappearing Technology
Internet
The Law of Disappearing Technology
The Resistance Corollary
Even outdated things that
should “disappear” don’t
due to supposed importance
Phone books
Checks
Fax machines
Keys
Plastic cards
Landline phones
Printed

newspapers
Lottery terminals
Adjacent Possible
Adjacent Possible
...a kind of shadow future, hovering on
the edges of the present state of things,
a map of all the ways in which the
present can reinvent itself
Steven Johnson
Ideas usually come at similar time
Who invented the telephone?
Enabling Technology
Existing technology that can be used
to build new technologies
Why was the computer
invented in the 1940s 

and not in the 1840s?
Think about this!
Charles Babbage

worked on his 

difference engine
and later 

analytical engine
In 1822-1871
Ada Lovelace
influenced or even
conceived the concept ot
programmable computer
Adjacent Possible
When all the enabling
technologies are ready, new
inventions will be emerge
Adjacent Possible
The inventor must use the
components that exist in his
environment
Steven Johnson
Image	source:	http://www.computersciencelab.com/ComputerHistory/HistoryPt4.htm
Vacuum tubes were used 

to build computers
The Second Industrial Revolution

The period 1870-1914 shaw innovations in the chemical, electric,
petroleum and steel industries
Nikolai Kondratiev
Kondratiev waves are
supposedly cycle-like
phenomena in the
modern world economy
Source:	Wikipedia,	Kondratiev	Wave
Kontrativ Wave
Source:	Wikipedia,	Kondratiev	Wave
Wave Years
1 First Industrial Revolution 1787–1842
2 Railroad and Steam Engine Era 1842–1897
3 Age of steel, electricity and internal combustion 1897–1939
4 War and Post-war Boom: Suburbia 1939–1982
5 Post Industrial Era: Information Technology 1982? – ??
Kontrativ Wave
The Prevailing Technology Trap
Current and dominant technology
will highly influence and restrict
new innovations
Technology Cramming
Technology Cramming
Two Waves of Products Development
In the first wave the product is
restricted by the prevailing
technology, but in the second,
there is something new
Two Waves of Products Development
Web 1.0 Web 2.0
Two Waves of Products Development
One2Many Many2Many
Timeline
Each wave creates number of
new inventions
Timeline
When the time is right,
new ideas will emerge
Let’s play a game
Next
L05 How Innovation Happens

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